Mendoza has been great but not necessarily when the game counts down the stretch (and the OL is not doing him any favors). I just don't think the RPO suits him well (or our current talent). Sure Mendoza is a capable runner...but he's not a THREAT to run. If they insist on the RPO play Rogers because he is a real threat....and that would open up space for our RBs.
Otherwise screw the RPO. Tired of seeing us run out RBs into a wall.
We have successful academic plays! If I'm not mistaken, every one of the three Nobel Prizes awarded so far have recipients who spent some time at Cal. The Chemistry prize today includes Dr. Baker who did his PhD at Cal in biochemistry. Go Bears! That puts us up to about 64 faculty and alumni. Miami still has...sorry, only 4.
I suspect the win % model that ESPN uses uses FPI + historical data for football given time left and possession. Since the FPI and historical data is constant the only changing factor is time, possession and field position. For me I can't do them in real time cause I am too focused on the game to fire up my code in real time haha (+ time needed to develop a win probability model on my own).
yeah it would be interesting to see the win probability with this method using stats only before the collapse. For example , can you plug Q3 stats into the model? I would guess Miami might still come out ahead, but nothing like 95%
It all comes down to the lack of real talent in the O line. We have really good running backs But without a competent O line their skills can't; be utilized. So we're a one dimension offense against a good defensive opponent.
I agree, but we have to make that up with no mistakes and flawless technique until we can buy better talent. That also goes for coaches. No more salesman and terrible teachers but that's on Wilcox.
Mendoza has been great but not necessarily when the game counts down the stretch (and the OL is not doing him any favors). I just don't think the RPO suits him well (or our current talent). Sure Mendoza is a capable runner...but he's not a THREAT to run. If they insist on the RPO play Rogers because he is a real threat....and that would open up space for our RBs.
Otherwise screw the RPO. Tired of seeing us run out RBs into a wall.
We have successful academic plays! If I'm not mistaken, every one of the three Nobel Prizes awarded so far have recipients who spent some time at Cal. The Chemistry prize today includes Dr. Baker who did his PhD at Cal in biochemistry. Go Bears! That puts us up to about 64 faculty and alumni. Miami still has...sorry, only 4.
Can you, or someone, do these calculations in real time?
The ESPN probability of winning graph had Cal with 97% at the end of the third quarter. Must not have accounted for the information that you show.
I suspect the win % model that ESPN uses uses FPI + historical data for football given time left and possession. Since the FPI and historical data is constant the only changing factor is time, possession and field position. For me I can't do them in real time cause I am too focused on the game to fire up my code in real time haha (+ time needed to develop a win probability model on my own).
yeah it would be interesting to see the win probability with this method using stats only before the collapse. For example , can you plug Q3 stats into the model? I would guess Miami might still come out ahead, but nothing like 95%
One thing for sure, information needed for prediction of the outcome is more than just the score.
It all comes down to the lack of real talent in the O line. We have really good running backs But without a competent O line their skills can't; be utilized. So we're a one dimension offense against a good defensive opponent.
I agree, but we have to make that up with no mistakes and flawless technique until we can buy better talent. That also goes for coaches. No more salesman and terrible teachers but that's on Wilcox.
We need to scout Texas, with Bloesch, and the Central Valley for LOS players.