Saying that UU owns the Utah market is like saying Biola University owns the So Cal. market. BYU owns SLC, Utah, and the Rocky Mountains--not even the Jazz can outdraw BYU football.
It's makes little sense for USC and UCLA to go north. Almost insane. Time difference, money to travel, weather extremes, higher academics, you name it. They are setting themselves up for more failure.
Several recent reports claim that the Big 12 is not meeting with any Pac12 schools today or in the near future. Said schools have, in fact, come out with statements "alleging" their commitment to the Pac12. Could all be posturing and positioning, I don't know.
of course its all posturing. They are committed until they are not. Cal should do the same.: 'As a founding member of the pac, we are committed to the long term success of the league'. And as soon as the BiG sends an invite, Buh-Bye pac.
btw: some B12 sources say, 'No way we are meeting with the Four Corners schools', but then the local mountain and dessert journos report that they are. Of course, perhaps its just one blogger who opined with little inside knowledge dn everyone is picking up.
Here's an off the wall idea for expansion for the current Pac-10 before it all falls apart.
1. San Diego State - not off the wall
2. Use Cal Poly's infrastructure and make up a combined student body team (revenue sports only) adding the LA area UC schools (excluding that one) and play at the Rose Bowl, SoFi or somewhere around the LA metro area for football. Mind you, most of the students and alumni probably won't care (like Stanford and Cal to be honest); but the combined, existing alumni base is most likely on par with UCLA and USC combined.
LA area UC schools like Irvine, Riverside, and maybe Santa Barbara? Three schools which don't have football programs, and you want to combine them into some quasi- Pac12 level football team, while using a Cal State school's infrastructure?
Nice article. And, I'm glad that Cal is in fact, more powerful than it looks right now. After years of slumping ticket sales due to ennui and night games, Cal could rebound if it finds an audience for both TV and home games. Admittedly as Alpha and other folks have pointed out, the marketing to local fans has been abysmal and the Bay Area remains solidly a pro market. For marketing success, consider the demise of the A's and the success of the Warriors in building even a global brand. It takes committed ownership, or in the case of Cal, effective leadership and support from the top university officials. This has been sorely lacking. If Cal does make a move either to the Big 10 or 12, the era of half-measures and lukewarm support must end.
Boy howdy, splitting the Oregon, Washington and/or California schools would be end game devastating...even the LA schools stuck together and were a package.
If B1G didn't want football powerhouse Oregon, then that youtube guy might be right, and we might have a better chance if B1G in fact emphasizes market size and academics.
Did you even read this article? This is an assumption on what the playoffs could look like if the P5 adopted the FCS model. with minor tweaks . Yes, it does mention 16 at-large berths but none guaranteed to the Big 12 or Pac (in any iteration).
Without UCLA, USC, Oregon, and UW, there is no way Pac-XX gets a guaranteed seat in the revamped playoffs. It'll end up being part of the G5, play your way in.
if we're behind the ACC that's basically doom. Their TV deal is as shitty as ours, maybe even shittier. That means TV broadcasters won't value someone smaller at P5 level. Individual schools will look to bail at that point.
At the current rate of expansion, you cannot assume there will be 5 conferences left standing. The playoffs are staying at 4 teams until at least 2026 when the current contract expires. The LA schools will be gone by then. If the Pac wants to have any leverage in the new playoff structure or just survive the relegation to G5 status, it needs to do something more drastic. Adding smaller markets like San Diego and Boise is not enough to play with the SEC and B1G. This is all assuming Oregon and UW stay put. If not, we're fucked. When the dust clears, there won't be a Power 5 anymore It will most likely be a Power 3 (depending on ND).
Agree. Apparently, Cal's media rights are worth ~$45M/year which is better than most/all of the remaining Big 12 and other Pac schools. SOMEBODY is going to want Cal, either the Big 10 (where Cal gets a lot less than the current members for a period of time) or the Big 12/Pac12 confluence. I dont think the ACC in its current form is in scope because of travel. Pac12/Big12 feels a lot more likely with an outside shot at the Big 10 (since noises are currently bubbling up that ND is standing pat for now- hope that is true for Cal's sake)
Saying that UU owns the Utah market is like saying Biola University owns the So Cal. market. BYU owns SLC, Utah, and the Rocky Mountains--not even the Jazz can outdraw BYU football.
It's makes little sense for USC and UCLA to go north. Almost insane. Time difference, money to travel, weather extremes, higher academics, you name it. They are setting themselves up for more failure.
I think the Big Ten’s list of most desired expansion targets goes as follows:
(1) Notre Dame;
(2) Stanford/Berkeley;
(3) Berkeley/Stanford;
(4) Washington
(5) North Carolina/Duke
(6) Duke/North Carolina
(7) Virginia
(8) Oregon
Only Washington and Oregon makes sense
No way
Several recent reports claim that the Big 12 is not meeting with any Pac12 schools today or in the near future. Said schools have, in fact, come out with statements "alleging" their commitment to the Pac12. Could all be posturing and positioning, I don't know.
of course its all posturing. They are committed until they are not. Cal should do the same.: 'As a founding member of the pac, we are committed to the long term success of the league'. And as soon as the BiG sends an invite, Buh-Bye pac.
btw: some B12 sources say, 'No way we are meeting with the Four Corners schools', but then the local mountain and dessert journos report that they are. Of course, perhaps its just one blogger who opined with little inside knowledge dn everyone is picking up.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/college/asu/2022/07/05/asu-arizona-among-pac-12-schools-talking-big-12-move/7813671001/
https://www.kgun9.com/sports/local-sports/report-arizona-asu-to-meet-with-big-12-officials
https://kslsports.com/489190/big-12-conference-report-deep-talks-utah-pac-12-schools/
Everyone is posturing. IMO nothing happens with the Big 12 until the Big 10 decides on what they're doing, so we're all just waiting on that.
Their commitment is as good as a 17 year old high school athlete's commitment
Here's an off the wall idea for expansion for the current Pac-10 before it all falls apart.
1. San Diego State - not off the wall
2. Use Cal Poly's infrastructure and make up a combined student body team (revenue sports only) adding the LA area UC schools (excluding that one) and play at the Rose Bowl, SoFi or somewhere around the LA metro area for football. Mind you, most of the students and alumni probably won't care (like Stanford and Cal to be honest); but the combined, existing alumni base is most likely on par with UCLA and USC combined.
LA area UC schools like Irvine, Riverside, and maybe Santa Barbara? Three schools which don't have football programs, and you want to combine them into some quasi- Pac12 level football team, while using a Cal State school's infrastructure?
You didn't think this through, did you?
Nice article. And, I'm glad that Cal is in fact, more powerful than it looks right now. After years of slumping ticket sales due to ennui and night games, Cal could rebound if it finds an audience for both TV and home games. Admittedly as Alpha and other folks have pointed out, the marketing to local fans has been abysmal and the Bay Area remains solidly a pro market. For marketing success, consider the demise of the A's and the success of the Warriors in building even a global brand. It takes committed ownership, or in the case of Cal, effective leadership and support from the top university officials. This has been sorely lacking. If Cal does make a move either to the Big 10 or 12, the era of half-measures and lukewarm support must end.
And, Go Bears!!!
I just hope we get into Big 10. If not, Big 12.
Fantastic work, Avi. Greatly appreciated as well.
Seems like a real chance OSU and Wazzu could end up in the Mountain West.
What a complete mess this all is.
Boy howdy, splitting the Oregon, Washington and/or California schools would be end game devastating...even the LA schools stuck together and were a package.
Great write-up Avi, as always.
Small nit: Notre Dame is not Jesuit. (That would be Boston College in D1 football.)
Notre Dame is absolutely on an all-time high off their self importance
Correct, but many of the premier football powerhouses are Jesuit, and Notre Dame recruits them fervently.
sryi, my bad. (That's what I get for reading WFC past midnight!)
I don't even want to know. What a clusterfuck-shitshow.
Canzano to the Ducks is as Wilner is to Cal.
I was told there would be no analogies!
If B1G didn't want football powerhouse Oregon, then that youtube guy might be right, and we might have a better chance if B1G in fact emphasizes market size and academics.
Joining B1G is the best thing that can happen to Cal right now.
Did you even read this article? This is an assumption on what the playoffs could look like if the P5 adopted the FCS model. with minor tweaks . Yes, it does mention 16 at-large berths but none guaranteed to the Big 12 or Pac (in any iteration).
Bob loves FCS. He's always talking about how great FCS football is. I'm sure he wants FBS to adopt FCS format.
Getting into Playoffs is the least of our worries right now.
Also, if Fox and ESPN are driving the moves for super-conference, I'm guessing they'll force more input into the bowl games and playoff bids.
Without UCLA, USC, Oregon, and UW, there is no way Pac-XX gets a guaranteed seat in the revamped playoffs. It'll end up being part of the G5, play your way in.
Yep. We'd have to have a Cincinnati-style run to ever make a case for a playoff spot.
if we're behind the ACC that's basically doom. Their TV deal is as shitty as ours, maybe even shittier. That means TV broadcasters won't value someone smaller at P5 level. Individual schools will look to bail at that point.
At the current rate of expansion, you cannot assume there will be 5 conferences left standing. The playoffs are staying at 4 teams until at least 2026 when the current contract expires. The LA schools will be gone by then. If the Pac wants to have any leverage in the new playoff structure or just survive the relegation to G5 status, it needs to do something more drastic. Adding smaller markets like San Diego and Boise is not enough to play with the SEC and B1G. This is all assuming Oregon and UW stay put. If not, we're fucked. When the dust clears, there won't be a Power 5 anymore It will most likely be a Power 3 (depending on ND).
Agree. Apparently, Cal's media rights are worth ~$45M/year which is better than most/all of the remaining Big 12 and other Pac schools. SOMEBODY is going to want Cal, either the Big 10 (where Cal gets a lot less than the current members for a period of time) or the Big 12/Pac12 confluence. I dont think the ACC in its current form is in scope because of travel. Pac12/Big12 feels a lot more likely with an outside shot at the Big 10 (since noises are currently bubbling up that ND is standing pat for now- hope that is true for Cal's sake)
That's the Fiesta Bowl vs Oklahoma in 2007, one of the most famous games in college football history.