You show that great minds think alike. It is evident that something has recently clicked for Cal basketball from Madsen's tireless schooling of his troops and they have suddenly "got it." Arizona was just too good for Cal, as they have premier talent and have a deep bench, unlike Cal. I predict Arizona will go far in the tourney but Cal has a longshot chance of getting in as well.
Madsen is a hell of a coach and his recruiting and unrelenting teaching prowess bode very well for Cal's future, they it may take more than a year in the future to bear fruit. Cal players should be the best recruiters for Cal since they will likely tell new recruits how much their play has improved under Madsent. Cal basketball could soon surpass football as being the best major sport on the Cal campus, though we need some good recruiting as our current number of good players is very thin.
Unless there is rule that you have to win your conference tournament to get into the tournament, I can't seee how what you said is possible. Say Arizona won every of their games this year but didn't win the Pac 12 tournament. It would be the height of absurdity and totally unfair not to not let them into the NCAA's.
Should have included in my hypothetical that Arizona was ranked #1 nationally AFTER their Pac 12 loss in their last game. Can't believe the NCAA wouldn't let them into the tournament under those circumstances or even a less one sided one.
To have any chance to get into the NCAA's, Cal needs to have an overall winning record any do well in the Pac 12 tournament (hopefully second, as they have no chance for first -- Arizona is going to take that). An overall record might get them into the NIT, if there is one for the women.
They need more than a winning record and a good showing in the conference tournament to get into the NCAAs. They need a conference tourney win. That’s it. That’s the only scenario. Hypothetically, any team can get in that is selected by the committee regardless of their record, but even if we go on a run we’re not even in the conversation. The scenario you pose belies the precedence of the past 40 years since the tourney went to 64. Google says a lot of things, much of it bull shit.
Google does give out accurate relationship - but the user needs to ask the correct question.
The question that GB49 seems to be asking is how does one team make the NCAA tourney - whereas the correct question is "What are Cal's chances of making the NCAA?" - and if you check out the various bracketology and betting sites, you would find that Nick, PawlOski, heyalumnigo, GlueandBold (and anyone else I missed) - short of winning the Pac-12 tournament, Cal will not be going to the NCAA Tournament.
Yup. The NCAA uses the NET ranking, for the most part, to decide the at large bids. Cal is currently 123. Very rarely does the NCAA choose an at large team below 40 or so. No way we make it without winning the Pac-12 tournament.
I admit I am only starting to follow Cal basketball. But I just look at the rules or what maybe necessary, factually, to see if we have a chance. I only fear Arizona as being unbeatable, but I doubt we will play them in the first round of the tournament, but could be wrong about it. I now place some hope from your statement that "they" (Cal) needs a tourney win." That may reasonably be doable, but more is needed and our short bench strengh will not help in that regard.
Cal’s basketball team is an excellent one, whose overall record is misleading. Altho impossible to prove, drawing on the historical cosmic forces of sport, my opinion is that Cal lost at least 70% of its early season loses because it was still in the process of breaking thru and out of the blanket of negativity created by the last 6 years of horrific losing basketball at Cal. This streak created a massive hole for the current new team and coach to dig its way out of. Refs also had to be re-educated to believe that Cal now had quality skilled players who deserved to be treated fairly. This team has carried the burden of being the sacrificial lamb that will serve to pave the way for future success. They could indeed win the last PAC tournament, assuming they stop treating Arizona with way too much respect. In any event, they are a fun skilled team to watch and Madsen has brought Cal basketball back to life. Go Bears!
I just don't think we have the players to beat Arizona, and it really comes to our bigs, or lack thereof. We need more than just Aimaq. With Okafor gone, he can't really go on the bench because behind him is Curtis/Larson. We need to do what we can to be seeded high enough that Arizona has multiple chances at losing before us if we want to make the tourney.
Really looking forward to how our recruiting will look going forward. I imagine that even with the extended travel, it must be a huge sell to be able to attend Cal and then regularly play against traditional basketball powers like Duke and UNC. The P12 had UCLA and Arizona, but both teams have been incapable of breaking through the ceiling again for so long. I think the 2nd half of the 00's really was the peak of P10/12 sports. Football had USC / Cal / Oregon / ASU, Basketball had UA / UCLA / Cal with multiple other teams rotating in and out. Once we got to the P12, it felt like we could only be good at one sport at a time as a conference.
Well said. I agree with all your observations. Watched the recent Arizona-Stanford game at Arizona. Stanford as u know bear then at Stanford and was ahead by 10 ish at the half due to lights out 3 point shooting, but Arizona showed their skill in 2nd half and, combined with the crowd pull even and won handily. But they don’t have nearly the same success away. Cal has played horribly against Arizona….I.e. they have flat out chocked in 1st half of both games. It will be an uphill battle for Cal to win the PAC Tournament. But it sure would be fun
The home games are a must, let's start there. The team has finally begun to jell on both sides of the ball. Can they continue to improve, with more contributions from other than the three top scorers, and the bench.
Cal controlled the game tip to buzzer, and agree the final margin should have been 15+, but debating how many points Cal should have beat a Pac12 team on the road is a new experience for me (in a long time)
Aimaq dominated on both sides of the court, and although the double-double is what people will talk about I agree it’s his 5 assists that helped made the cal train go
Also, as much as Tyson and Aimaq gets the headlines I’m loving Kennedy. It was his best shooting game but he locked down their best player and jumped 4 passes. It’s a shame he only has one year at cal but does he have a brother???
I also like handing whinny Hurley a big loss on his home floor
This was a very satisfying game to watch and so happy for them. It was a wild game for sure, with many fouls not called for whatever reason, but so it goes. Balanced scoring and resiliency. Go Bears!
I think its great what Cal basketball has accomplished so far this season. With a break here or there they could be well over. 500. The thing for me is that 3 of the 5 starters will be gone next year. Let's hope that Masden can continue to bring in good portal transfers and some highly regarded high school recruits. Go Bears!
Yeah, maybe this is partly why I want to get as many wins now; both because there are no guarantees of future wins, and because the more wins now, the more Madsen proves he can win at Cal, which might convince more recruits to come.
Yeah, Cal needs to keep on winning to 1) improve our post season NCAA playoff chances (still very much alive), and 2) if allowed (and I don't see why it wouldn't be) have NIL and high school recruits listen to what our current players tell them about how much their games have improved under Madsen. If we play our cards right Cal should be much better next year, all because of improvement of returnees (unfortunastely not many) and the trove of very good new players Madsen wil convince to come to Cal.
Would love to hear how high Cal needs to finish in the Pac 12 tournament to get into the NCAA's even if we don't win it the Pac 12 tournqmn5 I think we need to finish second or third to do so. I think just a winning overall record should provide an excellent chance to get into the NIT. A good article from WFC, and published very soon, should be published. Looking forward to reading it. Might be good to set up the questions be answered and let a few WFC staff take a crack at answering them.
This comment in Google disagrees with you and agrees with me. Check out Google, which indicates at large entry into the tournament is allowed.
People also ask
How does the NCAA determine who makes it into the tournament?
Currently, thirty-two (32) teams gain automatic entry through winning their conference's championship. The remaining teams (36 men's, 36 women's) rely on the selection committee to award them an at-large bid in the tournament.
I love bracketology. There's no way Cal gets into the NCAA tournament without winning the Pac-12 tournament.
Let's suppose we win every remaining game, finish 14-6 in conference and get the 5 seed. We beat Oregon State, Utah, Arizona(!) and fall to Colorado in the finals. We're still not getting in because we have a disqualifying amount of bad losses, and our only eye-catching win would be over Arizona.
Currently, no team with more than two combined Q3 or Q4 losses projects to make the NCAA tournament. No team with more than one Q4 loss is even a bubble team. Villanova has three Q3 losses and no Q4, and right now they probably don't get in.
Cal has five total Q3/Q4 losses, with three(!) being Q4. No one gets in with that amount. Last year none of the last four at-large bids had more than one Q3 and one Q4 loss. 2022's bracket featured Rutgers, a chaos team with some bad losses and big wins. They still only had two Q3 losses and one Q4 loss.
We aren't going to the NCAA tournament. Short of a miracle, we're probably not even going to the NIT. But there are some big milestones to aim for, like a .500 or better conference record like Nick said, making the conference tournament semi-finals, cracking the NET top 100, and more. We can still be proud and hopeful without aiming for something completely unrealistic.
I understand what you’re saying about the bad losses and how it would be unprecedented. However, how many teams with that many bad losses string together 10+ wins in a row to end a season with multiple quad1 wins in that streak? I would bet none. The committee is not supposed to look at things in a vacuum. It would absolutely take into consideration that cal is a team full of transfers and had injury problems early and they were playing their best basketball at the end of the season.
If you want to just throw around anomalies, how many times have the committee failed to take a top 50 net rated team that wins its last 10 regular season games? I bet the answer is zero.
So at the very least they would be a strong bubble team, which would put their chances of making the tourney at much more than zero. Saying 0% chance is just plain wrong.
Yes the NCAA tournament does at large entries. Cal’s profile, even if they won every game in the rest of the regular season, would not get attention from the selection committee.
You all are both right and both wrong. If cal won their last 9, it would put them at 18-13 and 14-6 in the Pac-12 (probably good for 2nd or 3rd in the league).
Their current NET ranking is 123. If they win their next 9, they’d have wins at col (net ranking 29) at Utah (34), at WSU (40), ORE (57), at UW (73) at Stanford (100). Those are all quad 1 wins except the Oregon win.
Their net ranking could presumably move up to top 50, which puts them squarely on the bubble.
Committee would also take into consideration Cal played extremely well down the stretch. My bet is they’d get in.
So saying they have zero chance getting in if they win the rest of their regular season games is wrong. However the chances of that happening are nil. So no use even talking about it.
The goal is to try to get to .500 and maybe get to the NIT. But even that’s a stretch.
Hard to believe Cal would not get in if they ere undefeated for the rest of the season before the Pac 12 tournament. If they did that, and even won just one time in the tournament, I feel strongly Cal would have a good chance to make the national tournament. I believe whichevvr team is on an undefeatedd roll has a good chance to sneak into the tournament. Nice to see you were honest enough to back away from your first statement that Cal has no chance to make the NCAA's.
Gobears49
You show that great minds think alike. It is evident that something has recently clicked for Cal basketball from Madsen's tireless schooling of his troops and they have suddenly "got it." Arizona was just too good for Cal, as they have premier talent and have a deep bench, unlike Cal. I predict Arizona will go far in the tourney but Cal has a longshot chance of getting in as well.
Madsen is a hell of a coach and his recruiting and unrelenting teaching prowess bode very well for Cal's future, they it may take more than a year in the future to bear fruit. Cal players should be the best recruiters for Cal since they will likely tell new recruits how much their play has improved under Madsent. Cal basketball could soon surpass football as being the best major sport on the Cal campus, though we need some good recruiting as our current number of good players is very thin.
Thank you for such a great, insightful article!
Utah, Colorado both undefeated at their homes can credit their high elevations weakening opponents. Hopefully, we will cause those records to fall.
With Cone’s, Keonte’s & others’ great improving skills added into the mix Cal might increasingly continue to astound everyone.
Add in ever-growing genuine team chemistry I predict and hope for a spangled shooting star season finish !
Gobears49
Unless there is rule that you have to win your conference tournament to get into the tournament, I can't seee how what you said is possible. Say Arizona won every of their games this year but didn't win the Pac 12 tournament. It would be the height of absurdity and totally unfair not to not let them into the NCAA's.
Should have included in my hypothetical that Arizona was ranked #1 nationally AFTER their Pac 12 loss in their last game. Can't believe the NCAA wouldn't let them into the tournament under those circumstances or even a less one sided one.
San Diego State 2017 road win erasure, Wyking conquered Viejas!
Gobears49
To have any chance to get into the NCAA's, Cal needs to have an overall winning record any do well in the Pac 12 tournament (hopefully second, as they have no chance for first -- Arizona is going to take that). An overall record might get them into the NIT, if there is one for the women.
They need more than a winning record and a good showing in the conference tournament to get into the NCAAs. They need a conference tourney win. That’s it. That’s the only scenario. Hypothetically, any team can get in that is selected by the committee regardless of their record, but even if we go on a run we’re not even in the conversation. The scenario you pose belies the precedence of the past 40 years since the tourney went to 64. Google says a lot of things, much of it bull shit.
Google does give out accurate relationship - but the user needs to ask the correct question.
The question that GB49 seems to be asking is how does one team make the NCAA tourney - whereas the correct question is "What are Cal's chances of making the NCAA?" - and if you check out the various bracketology and betting sites, you would find that Nick, PawlOski, heyalumnigo, GlueandBold (and anyone else I missed) - short of winning the Pac-12 tournament, Cal will not be going to the NCAA Tournament.
Yup. The NCAA uses the NET ranking, for the most part, to decide the at large bids. Cal is currently 123. Very rarely does the NCAA choose an at large team below 40 or so. No way we make it without winning the Pac-12 tournament.
Gobears49
I admit I am only starting to follow Cal basketball. But I just look at the rules or what maybe necessary, factually, to see if we have a chance. I only fear Arizona as being unbeatable, but I doubt we will play them in the first round of the tournament, but could be wrong about it. I now place some hope from your statement that "they" (Cal) needs a tourney win." That may reasonably be doable, but more is needed and our short bench strengh will not help in that regard.
Cal’s basketball team is an excellent one, whose overall record is misleading. Altho impossible to prove, drawing on the historical cosmic forces of sport, my opinion is that Cal lost at least 70% of its early season loses because it was still in the process of breaking thru and out of the blanket of negativity created by the last 6 years of horrific losing basketball at Cal. This streak created a massive hole for the current new team and coach to dig its way out of. Refs also had to be re-educated to believe that Cal now had quality skilled players who deserved to be treated fairly. This team has carried the burden of being the sacrificial lamb that will serve to pave the way for future success. They could indeed win the last PAC tournament, assuming they stop treating Arizona with way too much respect. In any event, they are a fun skilled team to watch and Madsen has brought Cal basketball back to life. Go Bears!
I just don't think we have the players to beat Arizona, and it really comes to our bigs, or lack thereof. We need more than just Aimaq. With Okafor gone, he can't really go on the bench because behind him is Curtis/Larson. We need to do what we can to be seeded high enough that Arizona has multiple chances at losing before us if we want to make the tourney.
Really looking forward to how our recruiting will look going forward. I imagine that even with the extended travel, it must be a huge sell to be able to attend Cal and then regularly play against traditional basketball powers like Duke and UNC. The P12 had UCLA and Arizona, but both teams have been incapable of breaking through the ceiling again for so long. I think the 2nd half of the 00's really was the peak of P10/12 sports. Football had USC / Cal / Oregon / ASU, Basketball had UA / UCLA / Cal with multiple other teams rotating in and out. Once we got to the P12, it felt like we could only be good at one sport at a time as a conference.
Well said. I agree with all your observations. Watched the recent Arizona-Stanford game at Arizona. Stanford as u know bear then at Stanford and was ahead by 10 ish at the half due to lights out 3 point shooting, but Arizona showed their skill in 2nd half and, combined with the crowd pull even and won handily. But they don’t have nearly the same success away. Cal has played horribly against Arizona….I.e. they have flat out chocked in 1st half of both games. It will be an uphill battle for Cal to win the PAC Tournament. But it sure would be fun
You heard it here first: Cal makes NIT, goes to MSG as final four.
i hate to rain on the parade but the NIT has moved the final four to the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas
Even better!
The home games are a must, let's start there. The team has finally begun to jell on both sides of the ball. Can they continue to improve, with more contributions from other than the three top scorers, and the bench.
Great win for the Bears. Nice threads for the Devils.
Great win. Cone and Aimaq were stars.
Cal controlled the game tip to buzzer, and agree the final margin should have been 15+, but debating how many points Cal should have beat a Pac12 team on the road is a new experience for me (in a long time)
Aimaq dominated on both sides of the court, and although the double-double is what people will talk about I agree it’s his 5 assists that helped made the cal train go
Also, as much as Tyson and Aimaq gets the headlines I’m loving Kennedy. It was his best shooting game but he locked down their best player and jumped 4 passes. It’s a shame he only has one year at cal but does he have a brother???
I also like handing whinny Hurley a big loss on his home floor
I LOVE READING ABOUT WINS
Thoroughly enjoyable game. No nail biting stretches. We always seemed to, at the least, get the cushion of a good lead restored.
I’ll be there next Saturday with daughter. In the lower corner behind Cal bench.
We need to fill Haas again
Probably last time in a long while we will play ucla and usc, and certainly not on our home floor
Wouldn’t it be nice to sweep UCLA and beat Bronny James and SC
YES !
It would be truly fabulous !!!
Mark's mom! Hello Mrs. Madsen. Thank you for birthing your son. He is an exceptional human being and coach. We are lucky to have him.
I love you for saying that. And I agree. But, I bet you are a pretty awesome person too.
Go Bears!
This was a very satisfying game to watch and so happy for them. It was a wild game for sure, with many fouls not called for whatever reason, but so it goes. Balanced scoring and resiliency. Go Bears!
I think its great what Cal basketball has accomplished so far this season. With a break here or there they could be well over. 500. The thing for me is that 3 of the 5 starters will be gone next year. Let's hope that Masden can continue to bring in good portal transfers and some highly regarded high school recruits. Go Bears!
Every year requires another reshuffling of the deck now it seems.
$$$
Players want $
Yeah, maybe this is partly why I want to get as many wins now; both because there are no guarantees of future wins, and because the more wins now, the more Madsen proves he can win at Cal, which might convince more recruits to come.
Gobears49
Yeah, Cal needs to keep on winning to 1) improve our post season NCAA playoff chances (still very much alive), and 2) if allowed (and I don't see why it wouldn't be) have NIL and high school recruits listen to what our current players tell them about how much their games have improved under Madsen. If we play our cards right Cal should be much better next year, all because of improvement of returnees (unfortunastely not many) and the trove of very good new players Madsen wil convince to come to Cal.
Would love to hear how high Cal needs to finish in the Pac 12 tournament to get into the NCAA's even if we don't win it the Pac 12 tournqmn5 I think we need to finish second or third to do so. I think just a winning overall record should provide an excellent chance to get into the NIT. A good article from WFC, and published very soon, should be published. Looking forward to reading it. Might be good to set up the questions be answered and let a few WFC staff take a crack at answering them.
The only way Cal makes the NCAA tournament is by winning the Pac-12 tournament
Gobears49
This comment in Google disagrees with you and agrees with me. Check out Google, which indicates at large entry into the tournament is allowed.
People also ask
How does the NCAA determine who makes it into the tournament?
Currently, thirty-two (32) teams gain automatic entry through winning their conference's championship. The remaining teams (36 men's, 36 women's) rely on the selection committee to award them an at-large bid in the tournament.
I love bracketology. There's no way Cal gets into the NCAA tournament without winning the Pac-12 tournament.
Let's suppose we win every remaining game, finish 14-6 in conference and get the 5 seed. We beat Oregon State, Utah, Arizona(!) and fall to Colorado in the finals. We're still not getting in because we have a disqualifying amount of bad losses, and our only eye-catching win would be over Arizona.
Currently, no team with more than two combined Q3 or Q4 losses projects to make the NCAA tournament. No team with more than one Q4 loss is even a bubble team. Villanova has three Q3 losses and no Q4, and right now they probably don't get in.
Cal has five total Q3/Q4 losses, with three(!) being Q4. No one gets in with that amount. Last year none of the last four at-large bids had more than one Q3 and one Q4 loss. 2022's bracket featured Rutgers, a chaos team with some bad losses and big wins. They still only had two Q3 losses and one Q4 loss.
We aren't going to the NCAA tournament. Short of a miracle, we're probably not even going to the NIT. But there are some big milestones to aim for, like a .500 or better conference record like Nick said, making the conference tournament semi-finals, cracking the NET top 100, and more. We can still be proud and hopeful without aiming for something completely unrealistic.
Oh, you beat me to this already, good analysis
I understand what you’re saying about the bad losses and how it would be unprecedented. However, how many teams with that many bad losses string together 10+ wins in a row to end a season with multiple quad1 wins in that streak? I would bet none. The committee is not supposed to look at things in a vacuum. It would absolutely take into consideration that cal is a team full of transfers and had injury problems early and they were playing their best basketball at the end of the season.
If you want to just throw around anomalies, how many times have the committee failed to take a top 50 net rated team that wins its last 10 regular season games? I bet the answer is zero.
So at the very least they would be a strong bubble team, which would put their chances of making the tourney at much more than zero. Saying 0% chance is just plain wrong.
Yes the NCAA tournament does at large entries. Cal’s profile, even if they won every game in the rest of the regular season, would not get attention from the selection committee.
You all are both right and both wrong. If cal won their last 9, it would put them at 18-13 and 14-6 in the Pac-12 (probably good for 2nd or 3rd in the league).
Their current NET ranking is 123. If they win their next 9, they’d have wins at col (net ranking 29) at Utah (34), at WSU (40), ORE (57), at UW (73) at Stanford (100). Those are all quad 1 wins except the Oregon win.
Their net ranking could presumably move up to top 50, which puts them squarely on the bubble.
Committee would also take into consideration Cal played extremely well down the stretch. My bet is they’d get in.
So saying they have zero chance getting in if they win the rest of their regular season games is wrong. However the chances of that happening are nil. So no use even talking about it.
The goal is to try to get to .500 and maybe get to the NIT. But even that’s a stretch.
Gobears49
Hard to believe Cal would not get in if they ere undefeated for the rest of the season before the Pac 12 tournament. If they did that, and even won just one time in the tournament, I feel strongly Cal would have a good chance to make the national tournament. I believe whichevvr team is on an undefeatedd roll has a good chance to sneak into the tournament. Nice to see you were honest enough to back away from your first statement that Cal has no chance to make the NCAA's.
Gobears49
I disagree with your new conclusion. Wish there were records I can easily look up to back up my now unverified conclusion. Thanks for responding.