129 Comments

If this doesn't end Cal's half-assed support of football, I don't know what does. As they say, nothing concentrates the mind like an impending execution. But it doesn't end there. Even if the Big10 pick us up, BELIEVE ME when I say that they'll start culling the low performers from their leagues at the next media rights negotiation. That means Cal needs to cut some Olympic programs and make them club sports, clear its stadium debt, and seriously do whatever it takes to be at the forefront of NIL and other opportunities. That requires new thinking and a strategic plan other than to wear Joe Roth unis against the LA schools.

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Here's the thing though: If Cal joins the Big 10, because of that massive tv rights deal, they don't really need to compete to come out even. The silver lining in leaving the Pac-12 for the Big 10 (besides our mere existence) is that we could maybe get out from under that stadium debt just by signing our names.

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Cal realistically brings nothing to the table that the B1G wants, much less needs. Yes, SF/Oak/SC/Sac is a huge tv market, but they don't watch or attend Cal (or Stanford) now. The bay area is a tv market that will gravitate to the best package of games, which is the SEC & B1G (without Cal).

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The problem is Cal is rarely on national broadcasts of recent and the Pac-12 Network has made us hard to find. When Cal is on a national broadcast, we actually bring in stronger numbers than most in the Pac-12. This market is really valuable--not LA valuable, but more valuable than Eugene and Seattle combined. Also, you have probably the two best non-Ivy academic institutions in the country. That does matter to those B12 presidents and alums. May not matter to Fox. Plus, leaving the LA schools alone on the left coast is entirely unsustainable. Rutgers and Maryland were added for there markets, and they make about 300% less sense than Cal.

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Yes, that is true. BUT...consider this phase one to being a true Super League for college football. Entities are inherently greedy, so at some point, the Rutgers, Vandys, Missouris, etc. are going to have to justify their existence in the league. So there will be culling for stronger teams. And that means that Cal will need to be in the strongest position possible as both a media entity and football program. You can't just get rid of debt and then continue status quo. That will get you dropped.

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The pie can only grow so big, the next step to increase each slice is to take the slices from the smaller and underachieving schools.

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Jul 1, 2022·edited Jul 5, 2022

"Promises [Conference memberships] are like pie crust, made to be broken." -- Comrade Lenin

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You don't understand that the "pie" is about to grow to a massive size, far bigger than you imagine. Plenty of crust for the schools Michigan, Ohio State, $C, et al use to pad their record

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Respectfully disagree. The Rutgers, Vandys, Missouris, Cal, etc. serve a very useful purpose: Provide cup cake wins against conference opponents for the top tier programs. 12 wins in the regular season have to come from somewhere.

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Fair points. But in the short-term, just the possibility of a lifeline to get out from under that massive stadium debt should have Christ and Knowlton doing everything in their power to get this done. An impossible dream. That seemed like it would be forever an albatross just two days ago.

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Have you ever seen USC and UCLA in the Big Ten?

Exactly.

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It's not going to be physically kicking out conference members. It's the Blue Bloods leaving again for a different conference of their own.

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Jul 1, 2022·edited Jul 1, 2022

yeah, it feels like the inevitable is really the break from the ncaa altogether, or at least a football-only conference for the blue bloods and those lucky to hitch a ride.. and even if the big adds a few more teams (that hopefully includes us), this is still just one step on the way to the inevitable, as all the contractual obligations eventually get worked out.

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Yep and that’s why if we are lucky enough to get a lifeboat to the Big10 that would only be a temporary reprieve. We would have to work hard to invest in football and build the brand to make it to the final endgame or use that time to pay off debts and prepare for being left behind.

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Yeah, it will be like when the Southwestern conference disintegrated.

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RemovedJul 1, 2022·edited Jul 1, 2022
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That was a polite culling. The schools that didn’t go to the Big12 didn’t do so because they wanted to go there own way, they didn’t get an invite. This is what will happen to schools like Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Mississippi State, Rutgers eventually.

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New Mex St and Idaho were contracted from the Sun Belt.

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Jul 1, 2022·edited Jul 5, 2022

I think we've been culled, if I understand what $C and ucla have done. The question now is, what are we going to do about it.

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Go to Wikipedia and look up the Southwestern Conference.

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Temple got kicked out of the Big East back around ~2000. But those were much simpler times.

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We need fresh leadership that understands where college football is going and can chart Cal’s course accordingly, instead of playing it safe in the short-term and following systems quickly going obsolete

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Jul 1, 2022·edited Jul 1, 2022

Great piece Avi. You only have to look at that new conference map and see there are major holes to fill. Also, re:our market. There are tons of Big 10 alums here in the Bay Area. This whole thing seems so irrational and impractical, and yet joining them is really the only option for our survival.

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Do you mean Big10? Joining them is the only option for survival but we have no leverage here and the Big10 is the one that has to want us, which I am sure they might but we are more like their 5th or 6th option right now.

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It's every man for themselves, but (gulp) if we were somehow able to force some sort of alliance with Furd we would have a lot of leverage. Our market is our greatest asset, and if we could own that jointly with Furd, then our negotiating power improves.

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I agree with all this. Our best bet and future is tied to our ability to work with Stanford to negotiate with the Big10 for a spot for both of us.

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yup, I could easily see a scenario with the B1G getting ND and adding Stanford as the +1. and the only sound you will hear for miles is the giant sucking sound of Oski deflating in front of Sproul, as predicted by Ross Perot.

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Jul 1, 2022·edited Jul 1, 2022

Of course I do. Excuse me. Fixed. It's early still.

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This is nothing but a pipe dream. The Big 10 told Oregon and Washington no today. We're waaaaaaaay below them in desirability.

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Read. Between. The. Lines.

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Wrong person to ask

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Read. Between. The. Wikipedia. Links.

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Cal has issued a statement neither confirming or denying that we are remaining in the pac 12 signed by both Christ and Knowlton.

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Great. Last thing I wanted was a commitment to Pac12.

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I am committing to a 56k modem! Who is joining me!!

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Hopefully this lights a fire under the administration but I doubt it. They have hemmed and hawed for years, choosing mediocrity or inaction over boldness. Would argue this is also why UCLA surpassed us in athletics all those years ago …

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Jul 2, 2022·edited Jul 2, 2022

Cal can repurpose the stadium as a safe space for protests from the undergrads. UCLA not gonna pay for that debt lmao

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It's like schools can now enter the transfer portal and get NIL money.

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Let's see, I'm a 3* recruit and Cal wants me to get on a plane 4 - 5 times per year to travel 6 - 8 hours ~ one way ~ to play a football game. No thanks. Perhaps to play a tennis match? Again, no thanks. I don't see how this is good for the student-athlete.

Cal should join the MWC and save their student-athletes from too much travel to different time zones.

Again the almighty $$$ was the only consideration here.

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Jul 1, 2022·edited Jul 1, 2022

Well then time to shut down the program and turn Memorial into housing for the homeless.

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People's Stadium.

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Cal athletics just solved the bay areas homeless crisis.

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Yeah but if they default on the stadium loans instead, I bet they could build even more housing than that!

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Shutting down the program is absolutely an option. Not sure turning Memorial into housing is such a good idea given it is on the fault line. Best to tear it down and put a proper rugby field on it.

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If I'm a 5* recruit and Michigan, Ohio State, U$C, and Fucla offer me I'm going to go to either Michigan or Ohio State ~ just so I won't have to travel as much but still be in the conference. I actually think this will hurt ~ not help ~ recruiting for the LA schools.

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It's pretty clear that Big-10/SEC College Football is not going to be played by “student-athletes.”

These have become semi-pro NFL player feeder leagues, with huge TV contracts, paid players (via NIL), and the occasional dropping by an actual class.

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Cal’s AD has wasted too much money on non-revenue sports over the past 20 years and has left the only two sports that matter, football and men’s basketball, to wither on the vine. They really should have cut a dozen sports when it was proposed a decade ago. Now all that AD bloat is going to drag Cal to the MWC, or worse something like D3 Ivy where there are no athletic scholarships.

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As an Illinois grad, would love to see both Cal and Stanford join the B1G. Check out the Big 10 Academic Alliance (BTAA, formerly the CIC). It’s the way the B1G schools + the University of Chicago collaborate. Also, just an FYI that Purdue is located in West Lafayette, IN, not Purdue, IN. Hopefully you all will find that out first hand after joining the Big 10!

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Great article, but please explain the fee deadline. Why would Bruins and Trojans not have to pay the Pac## an exit fee? And why would Cal (and Furd) have to pay a fee should they follow?

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As I understand it, yesterday (June 30th) was the Pac-12's deadline for teams to let the conference know their intentions of whether or not they will remain in the conference before negotiations sometime next year for the new media contract. Which is why things moved pretty fast from when the story broke in the morning to USC/UCLA leaving by the end of the day. I believe the Pac-12's fiscal year starts July 1st every year. Anyone know what the financial penalty is for leaving now?

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Maybe if the Pac-12 dissolves there's no penalty. Harsh.

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Maybe if the Pac12 dissolves, we divide and share equally whatever is left in the bank account.

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Was thinking the same

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Thanks for the clarification. Love the handle BTW!

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I guess the P12 really is no mas...

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¡híjole!

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Interested in this as well.

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Disagree. Cal is an also-ran in the Pac 12, systemically and structurally uncompetitive, not having won it's own conference outright in over 50 years with no end in sight. They will be patsies in the Big 10. This is an opportunity for Cal to realign itself with programs with whom they are on similar footing. I don't give a crap about being in a big time conference only to be drubbed year after year. I would much prefer being competitive and having an actual chance of winning the conference someday. Cal is 12-48 and 18-43 vs USC and UCLA respectively since the 1960s. Good riddance USC and UCLA

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Jul 2, 2022·edited Jul 2, 2022

The greed will eventually implode the system. Even with two 'Super Conferences' there will only be so many teams in the upper tiers. Kids want to play for a winner and a contender, even if its not in a power conference. And, kids who don't get recruited to winners in the new Super 2 will choose a winner in a lesser conference that has a chance to get to the playoffs over a middling or poor team in a super conference. I give you Clemson as an example.

The fact is that the PAC12 and ACC were very shortsighted when they would not agree to a 12 team national championship playoff with 6 guaranteed spots. It cost them big bucks and as a result USC and UCLA said fuck you, we are worth more money elsewhere. Now we have no guarantees and our revenues will drop with UCLA and USC leaving the PAC12.

There are a couple of things we can do: Schedule tougher non-conference opponents for big TV games, especially late in the season when it means something. Cut our PAC 12 schedule from 9 games against conference opponents to 8, just like the SEC does. That 9th game means half of the PAC 12 teams scheduled to play lose and that means one more loss on their records at the end of the season which destroys chances for so many of our teams to be eligible for a better bowl game or the playoffs. It's just fucking stupid, if you are trying to balance the game with making money.

Lastly, and I will say this until I die, we need to stop playing night games in the PAC12. Early kickoffs no earlier than noon PST and late kickoffs no later than 4:30. If people have to choose between games, so be it. But at least people in the midwest and east who are PAC 12 fans will watch our games...and we might even pick up some new fans. And, no away games in the midwest or east that start before 1:00 pm PST. Period! In our lust for dollars we too often agree to noon games in the east. That means our kids must get up at 5:00 am PST and game time is 9:00 am PST. I can tell you its a huge disadvantage and only a fool would submit to that kind of scheduling. Better to say no and get a team that will meet our schedule. W's mean so much in todays game; why fuck ourselves.

With that I say sayonara to USC and UCLA. Their fans will be unhappy with the decision to leave the PAC12 in about 3 years when neither of those teams is top tier in the Big Ten and neither team plays in any major bowl games and they are middling conference teams. Watch how fast the LA market drops ff when neither of those teams perform at the top level.

I say keep the PAC 12 together, sign up teams like SDSU, Fresno State, Boise State and others. Our top teams will still get national recognition, just like Clemson in the ACC. Bowl games will augment our revenues. It will hurt in the short run, but I think in the long run we'll be fine and the bigger conferences will hurt themselves as they have to spread money around to more teams, the vast majority of which will see diminishing TV ratings as their W's diminish.

If it's just about big television markets, then Stanfurd and CAL should have no problem getting invites to the super conferences, if its about adding big TV markets to the PAC12, we are already too late.

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USC is a blue blood and with the extra $$$ will be competitive in their new league. As for UCLA, I've never seen anybody do less with more so I don't expect much from them in the Big Ten - at least in football, which in a money-dominated world is all that counts.

I don't see that adding any of the teams you listed will do anything outside of diminish the conference payouts, which let's be honest is all that this is about anymore. Pushing to keep the Pac-12 together will only send us officially to second tier status. That might be acceptable for how mediocre our administration's support of football has been, but it would be a blow to our history and to our debt service.

At least historically, it has absolutely been about TV markets for the Big Ten - see Rutgers. So I tend to think we have a shot at an invite, if we're not competing for a single slot with Stanfurd.

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SDSU is actually a solid team and typically makes the top 25 each year (recently). They have a decent sized media market, it has a huge student body, good practice/training facilities and a new stadium. They would be a prime candidate. SJSU is in a top media market, but the team is usually not that good (the good coaches that go there and win end up leaving). They actually recruit decent talent. But the stadium is old and terrible and their practice/training facilities are not good. I'm not sure how much media value they would bring. Boise State has become one of those storied programs about a good team that comes from a lesser conference and turns into the giant slayer. They have a following that goes way beyond Boise and Idaho. Their stadium is pretty cool, and the blue field is out there. But the media market is only worth about $4m I have been told. Bringing them into the PAC12 would require an uneven distribution of revenue with Boise State settling for a smaller piece of the pie. I see UNR and UNLV in a similar position as Boise State with the main difference being that UNLV is in a Big media market. If we truly wanted to make a regional conference we would figure out a way to bring in all these schools and create a pay out scale commensurate with the media value for each market, however that would favor teams like SJSU over Boise State and UNR. Programs that get more money can build better facilities and hire better coaches. Not sure how all that gets sorted out.

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RemovedAug 13, 2022·edited Aug 13, 2022
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Agree that the top programs we would want to add would be SDSU, Boise State (although the growth is rapidly slowing) and UNLV. I just mentioned the other programs because of possibilities. One I did miss was Fresno State.

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All true, but they have been know to play pretty good football. If it's TV, they could be an asset for the right price. It's all about how much they can earn vs the payout. Remember, they stomped UCLA last year. :-)

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They’re not joining the Big 10.

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The Regents angle is overblown and won’t happen.

ND is the key here and Cal better hope ND says no to the Big10. If ND says yes, Big10 will grab Stanford/UW/Oregon to round out to 20 teams and Cal well get left behind. If ND says no, our chances increase that we are the 4th invite.

I think the Big10 would like to have the Bay Area/Sacramento market but would prefer just one of the two teams in that market and that would more than likely be Stanford with ND.

Cal is basically viewed as the OSU/WSU to stanford/ucla.

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Ok so Cal to the B1G is my current dream as I would love to show all of you around Madison when they play the Badgers.

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Jump Around

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