The California Golden Bears are underdogs against the No. 23 SMU Mustangs, according to the latest college football lines and odds offered by sportsbooks.
Cal v. SMU college football betting pick, odds and lines: Who is favored to win?
According to data independently collected by Write for California, the latest college football betting odds for Cal v. SMU is between Cal +18.5 and Cal +20.5, as of Friday morning.
The Cal +20.5 line implies the California Golden Bears are about 21-point underdogs against the SMU Mustangs.
According to data independently collected by Write for California, the latest point totals for Cal v. SMU college football “over-or-under” total score bets is between 55 and 55.5 points, as of Friday morning.
The Cal +20.5 line and 55.5-point total imply the California Golden Bears will lose to the SMU Mustangs with a scoreline of about 17-38.
According to data independently collected by Write for California, the latest Cal v. SMU college football “moneyline” ranges between Cal +700 and Cal +900 and SMU -1011 and SMU -1200, as of Friday morning.
Moneyline bets pay out based on the Cal v. SMU college football game’s result, regardless of any point “spread” handicap or margin of victory.
A bet on Cal’s most favorable moneyline of Cal +900 pays a $900 profit on a $100 wager, and a bet on SMU’s most favorable moneyline of SMU -1011 requires a $1,011 bet to earn a $100 profit.
Cal v. SMU college football: What you should know
The California Golden Bears are 3-4 and have a 2-2 record in the Atlantic Coast Conference in the 2026 college football season. The SMU Mustangs are 5-1 and have a 3-1 record in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
The SMU Mustangs are ranked No. 23 in the Associated Press poll and No. 20 in the AFCA Coaches Poll. SMU is the second top-25 opponent for California this season and its second-straight matchup against a nationally ranked opponent.
The California Golden Bears is 2-4 against the spread, while the SMU Mustangs have a 1-3-1 record against the spread in the 2026 college football season.
Cal has had two games finish with an “over” result and four games’ point totals end with an “under” result in the 2026 college football season. SMU had one “over” game and four “under” games this season.
The California Golden Bears have a 1-2 record against the SMU Mustangs in a series dating back to 1957. Cal lost its last game at SMU, a 6-38 defeat in Dallas on Nov. 30, 2024, in both teams’ inaugural season as Atlantic Coast Conference members. The last Cal v. SMU contest ended in a 38-35 Cal upset at home in Berkeley, Calif., on Nov. 29, 2025.
In its last game, Cal narrowly avoided being blanked by the visiting No. 21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Golden Bears lost 7-41 after trailing the Demon Deacons 0-34 at halftime. Cal’s star quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele did not start the game, but scored the Golden Bears’ only touchdown in the fourth quarter, a 28-yard pass to tight end Mason Mini.
Last weekend, then-ranked No. 24 SMU beat the Virginia Cavaliers, 23-13. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 246 yards and two touchdown passes, completing 23 out of 26 pass attempts.
The SMU Mustangs have a perfect 10-0 record at home against Atlantic Coast Conference teams since joining the league in 2024.
The Cal v. SMU college football line opened early this week at about Cal +16.5, according to Vegas Insider, which analyzes and aggregates select sportsbooks and prediction markets’ offered odds and lines.
Over the week, the Cal v. SMU line has moved against Cal, indicating bettors have continued to favor the SMU Mustangs.
Vegas Insider reports the Cal v. SMU moneyline opened at about Cal +550 and SMU -800. The Cal v. SMU total opened at about 52.5 points.
According to Vegas Insider’s analysis, 67% of bets on the Cal v. SMU college football game with a point spread have been on the California Golden Bears, while 98% of Cal v. SMU moneyline bets have been on the favorites, SMU. Vegas Insider also reports that 88% of total score bets have been on an “under” result.
The odds aggregator also reports that 71% of all dollars bet on Cal v. SMU with a point spread have been on Cal, 91% of dollars bet on the Cal v. SMU moneyline have been on SMU and 84% of dollars bet have been on the “under,” as of Friday morning.
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88% of the money bet is on the "under". This means the bettors believe Cal's Offense will lay another egg (maybe a goose egg). Sadly, there seems to be a good chance of repeating the WF disaster. As a fan, this feels worse than the 2013 1-11 season, because at least Sonny Dykes told the fan base the team was not good at the beginning of the season (he said thetalent was raw and underdeveloped). RR and Tosh built expectations of an 8+ win 2026 season...
"This will not be over quickly. You will not enjoy this."