This has to end sooner rather than later. Wilcox is a really nice guy but a nice guy who just can't deliver, can't put together a winning group of assistant coaches, and can't seem to recruit enough good players to build a winning program is not worth the millions we pay him. This NIL world in which D1/Power4-5 teams are now playing requires someone who understands the college game and can recruit outstanding high school players while poaching good players from other teams via the portal. If the program isn't strong enough to hold the nucleus of good players for more than a year, then it's a whack-a-mole forever situation where you're constantly having to rebuild every year and teach the system to a whole new set of players (sound familiar).. That just isn't sustainable if the goal is a winning program. I don't mean to underestimate how difficult this is for any coach with a sub-prime team -- even Nick Saban has commented about how nuts the college game has become with NIL and all the big money that's necessary to feed a major D1 program. I am assuming that Ron is going to fire Wilcox at the end of the season, though if Cal loses to VT I'd like to see it a lot sooner, and that he is already scouting a potential replacement, something that won't be easy in the context of other opportunities that we know are already available to coaches who may be looking to move. So, I guess we will just have to hang on and see "what's next."
If you believe what Ron and the Chancellor say, Cal is more than willing to do that and apparently has the money. Both Mendoza and Ott were made substantial offers to counter those of Indiana and Oklahoma, so I don't really think it's the inability to come up with the money. I think a decision has been made in hiring Ron and taking football management our of the athletic department that Cal is going to take a shot at playing with the Big Boys, something that has never happened in terms of University buy in -- it's always been satisfaction with what I can only call a "representative football team." Sure, occasionally Cal has gotten lucky, but for most of the last 75 years our football team has been consistently mediocre. So, no, I don't think it's a money issue. Cal has plenty of wealthy boosters who are willing to put up the funds to attract an outstanding coach and pay for players. Attracting a great coach is the challenge. If Ron can do that. I think the money will not be the issue and even at Cal, admissions will give the coach a number of "get out of jail free cards" -- i.e., there is no way these kids would be accepted if they weren't 5-star football recruits. As much as I think NIL money and the portal have completely corrupted D1 Power4-5 football and made it a farm program of the NFL, if we are going to play in that game, then let's get real and play in it.
I wonder what the odds of winning are for a team traveling cross country against a home team coming off a bye. Probably good for a 7 point advantage.
Great question! It's usually about four to five points, which, perhaps unsurprisingly, is where the line was yesterday (Oct. 23).
From the data I've seen:
- Typical home-field advantage in college football is 2.5 or 3 points
- Home-field advantage for some schools (most of the SEC, Penn State, Oregon) increases and is 4 or 4.5 points
- Typical travel penalty (cross-country or two or more time zones) is 0.5 or 1 point
- Typical bye week advantage is 0.5 or 1 point
Ron said "eight wins is a good season...."
6-6, 5-7, 7-5 take your pick, but 8-4 is a pipe dream with this crew. If they lose to VT, it’s all down hill from there and lucky to beat Stanford.
Well then we know what's next. Its very simple.
This has to end sooner rather than later. Wilcox is a really nice guy but a nice guy who just can't deliver, can't put together a winning group of assistant coaches, and can't seem to recruit enough good players to build a winning program is not worth the millions we pay him. This NIL world in which D1/Power4-5 teams are now playing requires someone who understands the college game and can recruit outstanding high school players while poaching good players from other teams via the portal. If the program isn't strong enough to hold the nucleus of good players for more than a year, then it's a whack-a-mole forever situation where you're constantly having to rebuild every year and teach the system to a whole new set of players (sound familiar).. That just isn't sustainable if the goal is a winning program. I don't mean to underestimate how difficult this is for any coach with a sub-prime team -- even Nick Saban has commented about how nuts the college game has become with NIL and all the big money that's necessary to feed a major D1 program. I am assuming that Ron is going to fire Wilcox at the end of the season, though if Cal loses to VT I'd like to see it a lot sooner, and that he is already scouting a potential replacement, something that won't be easy in the context of other opportunities that we know are already available to coaches who may be looking to move. So, I guess we will just have to hang on and see "what's next."
The question is whether or not we're prepared to pay the $8M-$10M a year that's required for a competitive coach? And that's without staff salaries.
If you believe what Ron and the Chancellor say, Cal is more than willing to do that and apparently has the money. Both Mendoza and Ott were made substantial offers to counter those of Indiana and Oklahoma, so I don't really think it's the inability to come up with the money. I think a decision has been made in hiring Ron and taking football management our of the athletic department that Cal is going to take a shot at playing with the Big Boys, something that has never happened in terms of University buy in -- it's always been satisfaction with what I can only call a "representative football team." Sure, occasionally Cal has gotten lucky, but for most of the last 75 years our football team has been consistently mediocre. So, no, I don't think it's a money issue. Cal has plenty of wealthy boosters who are willing to put up the funds to attract an outstanding coach and pay for players. Attracting a great coach is the challenge. If Ron can do that. I think the money will not be the issue and even at Cal, admissions will give the coach a number of "get out of jail free cards" -- i.e., there is no way these kids would be accepted if they weren't 5-star football recruits. As much as I think NIL money and the portal have completely corrupted D1 Power4-5 football and made it a farm program of the NFL, if we are going to play in that game, then let's get real and play in it.