Cal Women's Basketball Season 2024 Preview: Charmin Smith 2.0

With a revamped roster, are the Bears poised to succeed in their first year in the ACC?

photo via @calwbball instagram

Charmin Smith’s five years as head coach at Cal have been uniquely challenging. She inherited a depleted roster and soon saw multiple seasons lost to the maw of injuries and COVID. After 14 years of near constant NCAA tournament contention, Cal spent four years in the doldrums, with a collective Pac-12 record of 10-51.

Last year, finally, Cal returned to something akin to contention. The Bears were actually on the fringes of NCAA tournament consideration in the brutally difficult Pac-12, and finished above .500 for the first time under Smith. Nobody is jumping for joy over a 19-15 (7-11) season, but it did represent real on court progress. Evidently that progress was enough to garner Smith an extension through the 2028-29 season.

So welcome to the Charmin Smith era, 2.0. It’s a different version both because she’s been extended, and because she has been given the opportunity to bring in NINE new players to the roster as a second chance to revive Cal basketball’s on court fortunes.

This team won’t look completely foreign on the court. There are five returning players who were in the rotation last year, and who will be expected to contribute again. But how far this team goes will very much depend on how quickly Cal is able to find answers among their transfers and new freshmen, because there are major rotational minutes up for grabs, particularly after the departure of iron woman point guard Leilani McIntosh, a steady on-court presence each of the last five seasons.

Let’s dive into everything you need to know going into this new-look season:

Returning Players

Michelle Onyiah, 6’3’’ forward – An ongoing enigma, Onyiah is Cal’s most athletic player, a gifted rebounder, and on her day capable of controlling games in the paint. But she committed a personal foul every 5.4 minutes on the floor and has never been able to avoid foul trouble. If she has finally developed the ability to defend and rebound without fouling she could be one of the most valuable post players in the ACC.

Ioanna Krimili, 5’10’’ guard – Cal’s lead scorer, Krimili is a ball dominant combo guard who is one of the best shooters in the country, and her ability to shoot from deep was a key component that kept Cal competitive last year. Will have to facilitate more this year in the absence of Leilani McIntosh and an obvious true point guard on the roster.

Marta Suarez, 6’3’’ forward – Cal’s best two-way player, Suarez led the team in rebounding and was a consistent scorer, and though her outside shooting wasn’t amazing, it’s enough of a threat to keep defenses honest.

Claudia Langarita, 6’4’’ forward – After a solid sophomore season as a rotational player, her junior year was marred by injuries that cost her 10 games and limited minutes when she was able to play. Her ability to stretch the floor with her shooting ability is tantalizing, but she’s never been able to rebound or defend in the way you would expect for a player with her height. Might she be able to deliver more with a healthy season?

Lulu Twidale, 5’9’’ guard – as a freshman, Twidale got rotational minutes off the bench primaryily as a 3-and-D player and showed off a streaky shooting touch, hitting buckets of 3s in one game and going ice cold the next. If she can take a step forward defensively and add more consistency to her outside shot she could push for starter’s minutes.

Anastasia Drosouni, 5’11’ guard – Drosouni missed her entire freshman season due to injury – limited euro stats indicate that she could potentially be an intriguing combo guard shooter, but there will always be questions about the transition from Euro U18 competition to college ball.

New Transfers

Gisella Maul, 5’11’’ guard (Texas) - Easily Cal’s biggest transfer addition, Maul was a top 50 recruit who got rotational minutes as a true freshman for a Texas team that won 33 games and made the Elite 8. As a freshman she shot 38% from 3 and has a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio, solid signs as she adapted to college basketball. A sophomore leap from her would go a long way to helping Cal compete in the ACC. She didn’t dress for Cal’s exhibition game so there may be a question as to her injury status to start the season.

Jayda Noble, 5’11’’ guard (Washington) - a defensive specialist at the guard spot, Noble is a Pac-12 veteran who is limited by her shooting skills. A career 21% 3 point shooting percentage means she’s limited offensively, but I’d expect her to carve out a role in the rotation for defensive purposes.

Kayla Williams, 5’7’’ guard (USC & UC Irvine) – Another defensive specialist who was a major part of USC’s 2023 all-defense, limited offense, but saw her playing time fall drastically as USC brought in a ton of high end talent. She’a legit ball hawk and was actually reasonably efficient in a low usage, limited minutes role last year. Her shooting (32% career from 3) is more of a threat than Noble so if there’s a battle for playing time as a defensive specialist I’d give Williams the edge.

Natalia Ackerman, 6’1’’ forward (Cal Poly) - A late add via the portal, she might be the most intriguing add to the roster. Ackerman is a grad transfer with two years of eligibility left thanks to COVID and a season ending injury, but she’s coming off two WILDLY efficient seasons as Cal Poly’s best player. She shot 58% from the field, largely right around the basket, and pulled down 9 rebounds a game. That kind of production likely won’t translate one-to-one making the jump from Big West to ACC basketball, but she also won’t be the clear go-to player for the Bears. If she can be an efficient secondary option it could do a lot for Cal’s offense.

New Freshmen

• Lola Donez, 5’11’’ guard

• Zahra King, 5’10’’ guard

• Kamryn Mafua, 6’1’’ wing

• Gabrielle Abigor, 6’3’’ center

• Sofia Bowes, 5’10’’ guard

I’m writing about Cal’s freshmen as a group because there’s just not enough information (highlights, scouting reports, etc.) to talk about each of them individually with a ton of confidence. King and Mafua are the two players who cracked recruiting ranking top 100 lists, and so I’m projecting that they’ll be in the mix for playing time in year 1, but high school WBB scouting is iffy enough that I would put many grains of salt regarding first year projections made for any of Cal’s freshmen.

One person’s bad guess at a rotation

Point guard (one spot): Ioanna Krimili (30 mins), Zahra King (10 mins)

Shooting Guard/wing (two spots): Lulu Twidale (20 mins), Gisella Maul (20 mins), Kamryn Mafua (15 mins), Kayla Williams (15 mins), Jayda Noble (10 mins)

Forward/Center (two spots): Marta Suarez (30 mins), Michelle Onyiah (20 mins), Claudia Langarita (15 mins), Natalia Ackerman (15 mins)

Big questions include who gets minutes at backup point guard, and how the rotation dwindles as the season progresses. I’m guessing King may take on some ball-handling, but it could easily be Maul instead. I’ve listed 11 players as part of the initial rotation, but I’d anticipate that Charmin Smith will eventually bring the rotation down to somewhere around 8 or 9 players. Look for a battle between Mafua, King, Williams and Noble for back-up guard minutes, and a battle between Langarita and Ackerman for back-up post minutes.

The Schedule

Non Conference

Cal’s non-conference schedule is actually pretty tough this year. The Bears do have a handful of games against smaller schools that should be easy wins (St. Mary’s, Idaho State, San Jose State, Grambling, UOP, Austin Peay, and Fordham) but the schedule is interspersed with solid NCAA hopeful teams that will be good measuring sticks. They are as follows:

• at Gonzaga

• vs. Auburn

• vs. Michigan State in Palm Springs

• vs. either Vanderbilt or Arizona, in Palm Springs

• vs. Alabama

All of the five teams listed above are ranked between 25 (Alabama) and 52 (Gonzaga) on Torvik and as a result are teams entering the year hoping to play their way into the tournament. If Cal could take 2 or 3 out of the five that would bode well for Cal’s ability to compete in the ACC.

ACC Play

Last year, the ACC sent 8 of their 15 teams to the NCAA tournament, and they’re adding Stanford to the mix this year, so things are not really getting any easier despite how brutally tough the Pac-12 was during Smith’s 5 year tenure. Cal will play every single team in the ACC once with the exception of Stanford, which is a slight disadvantage even if Stanford is expected to take a step backwards after a number of departures, none less important than that of Tara Vanderveer.

Notre Dame is seen as a title contender and big favorite to win the league, but six total teams made the AP preseason top 25, so the work is clear. Pitt is basically the only team in the conference that’s expected to be outright bad, but there are enough good-not-great teams that Cal can get some wins if this rebuilt roster gels before conference play.

Just for planning purposes, ACC WBB is played on a Thursday-Sunday schedule (the lone exception is that Cal will host Stanford on Friday, December 13), so clear your calendar in January, February, and March accordingly.

What about the ACC tournament?

The ACC states that it will be a 15-team bracket, with seeds 5-8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 1-4 receiving double-byes. I haven’t seen a bracket and haven’t been able to place 15 teams into a double bye bracket in a way that works, but I’m just one idiot on the internet. I guess we’ll find out in March when it’s time to travel to (sigh) Greensboro, North Carolina.

Season Predictions

Our Computer Overlords

Bart Torvik, who runs a tempo-free stats site, has recently unveiled WBB rankings, and his system predicts that Cal will finish 16-13 (8-10 on the season), good for an 11th place finish in the ACC.

The Media Elites

The ACC pre-season media poll places Cal to finish 13th in the ACC, though the pre-season poll has Clemson, Cal, and Boston College in a near dead heat for 12th, 13th, and 14th in the conference.

I personally don’t feel confident trying to predict anything considering that I haven’t even seen 66% of Cal’s roster play and know next to nothing about every single other team in Cal’s conference other than Stanford. It’s going to be a weird season, and it all starts tomorrow night when Cal hosts St. Mary’s at 6:00 as part of a 6:00/8:30 double header with the Cal men. St. Mary’s shouldn’t present a major challenge in Berkeley after losing their two best players from last year, but they’ll represent your first chance to check out the Bears in a non-exhibition format. The game will be available to stream via the ACC online network on ESPN+.