"The inches add up." This theme summarizes the issues Cal faces across the board, and I had to re-read the headline to remind myself it was in reference to WBB, and not Wilcox's football program, the MBB program, or even the baseball team.
The story line is almost a copy/paste game to game and season to season. "Cal has some good pieces, and them mostly play hard. But <insert opponent> at some point capitalizes on a Cal area of weakness and prevails."
Overall recruiting certainly continues to bring in some bright spots, but overall, falls short somewhere in terms of speed/size/strength/baseline talent/quality depth/versatility/breadth of talent. Cal attempts to compensate, with varying degrees of success, but the key work there is still compensate. Compounding the problem, the shortcomings mean a tendency to over-rely and overwork the good pieces the Bears do have, which tends to increase the likelihood of injury and illness, which exacerbate the depth and versatility problem.
The result is an inability to be competitive all game long in every game all season, and the losses lead to the bottom 1/3 of the standings. Fixing it isn't easy, or quick, either. The fact that this pattern transcends programs and coaches, some of whom are struggling with more than others, but none are thriving under, suggests that WBB is another victim of a system/culture that does currently not put Cal's programs or players in a position to be able to be successful on other than an occasional basis.
It's time to blow up both men's & women's basketball and, of course, men's football programs and start over. It's impossible to contemplate how that could provide worse results, and it might just help.
What Cal is doing right now is clearly not working. At all.
Seems correctable by recruiting and I think Coach Smith is doing fine, all things considered. It's tough sledding to move up in the Pac. Being "1 or 2 players away" or having future contributors "1 or 2 years away" from their potential can relegate you to the bottom tier of the conference.
Just a very different situation than the men's side despite the disappointment in both teams' results.
The problem with recruiting, as Nick alluded to, is that the math isn’t really there until the core of this team is gone - scholly math is tighter than tight. Charmin is kinda stuck with this team until she has to do a total rebuild.
Thank you for your great analysis. It was just what I needed on this Monday morning after a disappointing weekend for the Bears in Washington. My hope is that Leilani decides to return for one more year likewise Karisma Ortiz who has shown some real growth during the latter part of the season. I think Charmin thought she would have 5'11 guard Alma Elsnitz (Sweden) coming off the bench this season. She was part of that #6 2021 recruiting class. But her Cal career has been marked by far MORE minutes on the injured list and rehab than on the court. Hopefully, she'll be able to contribute next season. I'd also like to see Mia Mastrov gain more confidence on the offensive side of the ball in her junior season. Her defensive skills are starting to shine. We do have a highly-regarded Australian guard, Lulu Laditan-Twidale coming in as a freshman next season. She's 5'10. Otherwise, we should search the transfer portal for a post player and a back-up point guard who can score. Go Bears!!!
I really like Mia - she is definitely a rotation player in the Pac, but she's not quick enough to guard guards in the Pac, nor big/athletic enough to guard wings in the Pac-12. Charmin loves to use her to pair with Lei when we press - because she works really hard and is 5" taller than Jayda, but in the half-court when playing man defense, she often gets lost on individual assignments.
She also has terrible shooting numbers for having such a decent looking jump-shot. I wonder if this is small sample size theater, but her percentages for her 3 years are far below what you'd really like for a "shooter"
Excellent write-up and you make some good points about what has become a frustrating season. To me the problem is simple. Cal's best teams have had players like Brittney Boyd, Alexis-Gray-Lawson, Layshia Clarendon and Asha Thomas in the backcourt and Reshanda Grey, Kristen Anigwe, Devani Hampson and Jennifer Brandon at the post. They have no one of that quality on the current team. There are no players who can carry them in close games. More concerning is there's no help on the way. There is no one in the next recruiting class and, depending on transfers out, probably only room for one to three newcomers via the portal. Selling five star high schoolers on the program is going to be a tough sell. Hopefully Charmin Smith is up to the task.
It will be misleading, because attendance is not announced; tickets distributed is, because that's what athletic departments care about. You have to factor in how many no-shows, especially season ticket holders who have to shell out for their best seats, but really only show up for a couple of rivalry/special interest games unless the team is actually doing well, there were. Some of the ticket buyers are more ardent in redistributing tickets they aren't going to use than some others. Every athletic department in the conference and elsewhere loves to tout a greater level of interest than actually existed.
Tickets distributed/accounted for, including sold (mainly), but also the allotment of seats "given" to the band, the number of spots taken up on press/media row, the number of photo credentials, the number comped for special interests, the number distributed for radio stations to give away, etc...
As far as who enters Haas/(Maples, Gill, MK Arena, Beasley, etc..) is easy/known, all those e-tickets and credentials get scanned on entry. But that number isn't always nearly as impressive when the athletic department is trying to create a sense of urgency for people to buy better tickets, or any ticket where things are going well, and pay full price in advance. Also, the larger the number, the more cover it affords for accountability for poor performance/scheduling/conditions that result in a lesser product people might not want to invest in.
I would think it reflects actual fans in attendance because they do scan your tickets at the entrance. For women's games, students get in free so there's no way to actually gauge their numbers.
Not the case. I've been to numerous events where you can literally count the number of people in the place, and its no where near the announced number. Season tickets and package tickets ("Buy 5 games" type deals) are always all counted, whether 90+% show up (Arizona MBB winning a lot), or most of the season ticket holders don't show up for a late start against a distant opponent in a season headed for a 3-17 season that they bought season tickets for because Coach Sunshine and the athletic department convinced them the team was a lock for a top-10 ranking and a tournament run.
"The inches add up." This theme summarizes the issues Cal faces across the board, and I had to re-read the headline to remind myself it was in reference to WBB, and not Wilcox's football program, the MBB program, or even the baseball team.
The story line is almost a copy/paste game to game and season to season. "Cal has some good pieces, and them mostly play hard. But <insert opponent> at some point capitalizes on a Cal area of weakness and prevails."
Overall recruiting certainly continues to bring in some bright spots, but overall, falls short somewhere in terms of speed/size/strength/baseline talent/quality depth/versatility/breadth of talent. Cal attempts to compensate, with varying degrees of success, but the key work there is still compensate. Compounding the problem, the shortcomings mean a tendency to over-rely and overwork the good pieces the Bears do have, which tends to increase the likelihood of injury and illness, which exacerbate the depth and versatility problem.
The result is an inability to be competitive all game long in every game all season, and the losses lead to the bottom 1/3 of the standings. Fixing it isn't easy, or quick, either. The fact that this pattern transcends programs and coaches, some of whom are struggling with more than others, but none are thriving under, suggests that WBB is another victim of a system/culture that does currently not put Cal's programs or players in a position to be able to be successful on other than an occasional basis.
It's time to blow up both men's & women's basketball and, of course, men's football programs and start over. It's impossible to contemplate how that could provide worse results, and it might just help.
What Cal is doing right now is clearly not working. At all.
Seems correctable by recruiting and I think Coach Smith is doing fine, all things considered. It's tough sledding to move up in the Pac. Being "1 or 2 players away" or having future contributors "1 or 2 years away" from their potential can relegate you to the bottom tier of the conference.
Just a very different situation than the men's side despite the disappointment in both teams' results.
The problem with recruiting, as Nick alluded to, is that the math isn’t really there until the core of this team is gone - scholly math is tighter than tight. Charmin is kinda stuck with this team until she has to do a total rebuild.
Yup. And have to wait for other teams in the conference to change their cores as well.
Thank you for your great analysis. It was just what I needed on this Monday morning after a disappointing weekend for the Bears in Washington. My hope is that Leilani decides to return for one more year likewise Karisma Ortiz who has shown some real growth during the latter part of the season. I think Charmin thought she would have 5'11 guard Alma Elsnitz (Sweden) coming off the bench this season. She was part of that #6 2021 recruiting class. But her Cal career has been marked by far MORE minutes on the injured list and rehab than on the court. Hopefully, she'll be able to contribute next season. I'd also like to see Mia Mastrov gain more confidence on the offensive side of the ball in her junior season. Her defensive skills are starting to shine. We do have a highly-regarded Australian guard, Lulu Laditan-Twidale coming in as a freshman next season. She's 5'10. Otherwise, we should search the transfer portal for a post player and a back-up point guard who can score. Go Bears!!!
I really like Mia - she is definitely a rotation player in the Pac, but she's not quick enough to guard guards in the Pac, nor big/athletic enough to guard wings in the Pac-12. Charmin loves to use her to pair with Lei when we press - because she works really hard and is 5" taller than Jayda, but in the half-court when playing man defense, she often gets lost on individual assignments.
She also has terrible shooting numbers for having such a decent looking jump-shot. I wonder if this is small sample size theater, but her percentages for her 3 years are far below what you'd really like for a "shooter"
Excellent write-up and you make some good points about what has become a frustrating season. To me the problem is simple. Cal's best teams have had players like Brittney Boyd, Alexis-Gray-Lawson, Layshia Clarendon and Asha Thomas in the backcourt and Reshanda Grey, Kristen Anigwe, Devani Hampson and Jennifer Brandon at the post. They have no one of that quality on the current team. There are no players who can carry them in close games. More concerning is there's no help on the way. There is no one in the next recruiting class and, depending on transfers out, probably only room for one to three newcomers via the portal. Selling five star high schoolers on the program is going to be a tough sell. Hopefully Charmin Smith is up to the task.
It will be misleading, because attendance is not announced; tickets distributed is, because that's what athletic departments care about. You have to factor in how many no-shows, especially season ticket holders who have to shell out for their best seats, but really only show up for a couple of rivalry/special interest games unless the team is actually doing well, there were. Some of the ticket buyers are more ardent in redistributing tickets they aren't going to use than some others. Every athletic department in the conference and elsewhere loves to tout a greater level of interest than actually existed.
Tickets distributed/accounted for, including sold (mainly), but also the allotment of seats "given" to the band, the number of spots taken up on press/media row, the number of photo credentials, the number comped for special interests, the number distributed for radio stations to give away, etc...
As far as who enters Haas/(Maples, Gill, MK Arena, Beasley, etc..) is easy/known, all those e-tickets and credentials get scanned on entry. But that number isn't always nearly as impressive when the athletic department is trying to create a sense of urgency for people to buy better tickets, or any ticket where things are going well, and pay full price in advance. Also, the larger the number, the more cover it affords for accountability for poor performance/scheduling/conditions that result in a lesser product people might not want to invest in.
I would think it reflects actual fans in attendance because they do scan your tickets at the entrance. For women's games, students get in free so there's no way to actually gauge their numbers.
Not the case. I've been to numerous events where you can literally count the number of people in the place, and its no where near the announced number. Season tickets and package tickets ("Buy 5 games" type deals) are always all counted, whether 90+% show up (Arizona MBB winning a lot), or most of the season ticket holders don't show up for a late start against a distant opponent in a season headed for a 3-17 season that they bought season tickets for because Coach Sunshine and the athletic department convinced them the team was a lock for a top-10 ranking and a tournament run.
I was referring to the women's games. I gave up my men's basketball season tickets after the first season of Mark Fox.