Jul 18, 2023·edited Jul 18, 2023Liked by Avinash Kunnath
I think Cal more than most teams in the Pac are a high variance team. We just don't know what the team will look like due to the changes and the questions in certain position groups. I would like to think our defense will be better, perhaps one of the top defenses in the PAC. I also think the offense will be better. I wonder about the run/pass split. We are deep and talented at RB, our new QB can run, and it is easier for linemen to run block. Some of our lineman may grade out higher as run blockers than pass protectors. So even though our offense is changing, it will be interesting to see if this is a play good defense and use short passes offense.
With this in mind, I think of our schedule as dividing into four groups rather than three.
Group 1: Idaho, Stanford, N. Texas. We should win these. We should run on them and be able to limit their scoring. Even with N. Texas, we should be able to match up in the secondary and make tackles.
Group 2: Auburn, ASU and WSU. These teams have better talent than Group 1, but have issues of one kind or another, including two new coaching staffs and schemes, questions on the offensive and defensive lines for two of them, plus we play all of them at home. Auburn is the key one because of their talent and coaching but fortunately we get them early, at home, and at a late start time for them. We should be able to run on ASU and WSU. Auburn is a good test because of their talent especially on the lines..
Group 3: $C, OSU and UCLA. They have issues (defense, passing and defense/new QB), but less so than Group 2. We should be 2 score dogs but we have a chance. We might be able to stop or slow down OSU's run game. I especially like the $C game as a trap game where they play 5 ranked teams before and after us, we are at home coming off a bye week, plus it is the Joe Roth game, and our last chance to say FU before they go to the B10. Also, the $C and UCLA games are later in the year when our offense may be more developed. That said, we always have trouble with UCLA. The only reason I put them here is because it is the last game of the year and we may shape up by then, they have no home field attendance or advantage, and we may be looking for our 6th win.
Group 4. Oregon, Wash and Utah all on the road. Stable coaching staffs/schemes, lots of talent, strong home field advantages. Plus we play WA earlier in the season while our offense is still maturing. They have a good front 7 so we need to throw. I don't see any of these as possible unless our offense makes stunning progress early on. WA can just outscore us. Utah can stop us. And Oregon has advantages on both sides of the ball.
I 100% agree. One thing I will say is that we have fantastic bulletin board material for the LA schools and I would be surprised if we don't get one on them. The hostile energy in Memorial stadium for our last USC game will be higher than its ever been in recent memory.
UCLA - Chip Kelly always has our number and calls brilliant offensive plays that always keep us off balance. This will be a tough one.
USC - has Caleb Williams, simply the best QB in college football right now, an improved offense (hard to imagine), and a better defense. They could be playoff bound, but then we have a way of playing them very well. If our defense can beat up Williams the way Utah did, we will have a chance.
Utah - The Utes brand is smashmouth football, The take the field with lesser talent than many opponents and beat them out with pure tough, physical play. I love Utah football. And their QB, Cam Rising, is their spiritual leader. The guy plays with heart and toughness and his fellow Utes rise with Rising. This will be a tough game no matter what.
Oregon - Oregon has talent, but we have had their number for years, beating them or coming close to beating them even with their superior talent. I say this game is 50/50.
Auburn - this will be interesting. They have talent but do they have a QB? We've heard that question. The winner of this game will be the team who has the better QB. Just like Sam Jackson is slated to be our starting QB, but not guaranteed, Michigan transfer Payton Thorne is in the same position at Auburn. But Michigan has not had a series of great starting QB's let alone back ups. The QB match up might tip in our favor.
We could lose any of the games we play, and we can win any of them. I'm sure will win an upset or two and lose one we're not supposed to. This is college football. Unless you are GA, Bama, OSU...this will happen. I'm just looking forward to watching CAL play football on Fall Saturday's with a new offense and some new talent. I'm not worried about W's or L's. I just want to have fun.
The ceiling is about 8 wins, and eventually they will have to overperform. Think of how many games last year were one score games that could have went the other way. That pendulum has to swing the other way eventually.
Good point. While the pendulum is due to swing the other way, there’s no denying that close, one-score games that turn on a handful of plays has been a Wilcox hallmark throughout his six seasons…in that regard, ‘22 looked a helluva lot like other years…
The difference is our opponents have gotten drastically better, especially at the QB position…the current P12 stable of QBs is as solid and deep as I can recall.
Spavital and Bloesch hold the keys…can we take the new additions and finally scheme and produce a competent O? If so, the Bears could definitely surprise.
Auburn is the benchmark for the year. Talent this. Sec that. They went 5-7 and were on life support vs sjsu last year. They don't win here and asu wsu and Stanford or highly questionable games.
I agree Auburn is big because Cal needs to win as many at CMS as they can, but I’ll throw at North Texas in as the benchmark of the year, and for this reason: Wilcox has not shown a consistent ability to get the team ready to play on the road. Losses at Arizona and Colorado the past two seasons should never have happened in a healthy program, and at Denton is the closest thing we’ve got to those two disasters. Can Wilcox & staff have the team ready to go on the road, in the heat, and beat a team that is absolutely fired up to play them? They were decent last year but lost a lot, including coaching, but now have Eric Morris as HC, who knows Cal from Wazzu last year. They also have a former Cal grad transfer target at QB. Cal is the first P5 school in, like, forever to travel to the Mean Green…the Bears are 9.5 point favorites…
You absolutely have gotta win this one…an L and the DOOOOOM and doubt scenario starts to creep into the team and fan base.
This is a horrible scheduling bit, as well…F you Sonny.
I love DMF's breakdown. The tough schedule is necessary for National relevance. They are already calling us a scrub team. Writing us off. The tone must be set early. We MUST win our first 3 games and win the games in the conference we are supposed to win. We can get 6 games, but no freebie games can be spared.
It's true the SEC voices are saying Cal is a gimme vs. Auburn. I think it will be a close game. Playing at 10:30 pm their time gives us a bit of an advantage.
And yet sports sites have it as a coin flip game. It's just SEC bravado. They'll then be "bad" until they beat a few SEC teams and everyone forgets about us.
Cal has to beat someone they aren't supposed to beat. They can't just get by anymore by beating the teams they are supposed to. It's not enough anymore. Playing up and upsetting teams is the best way to change. I feel it in my bones the best time to do this is to beat USC on Halloween. It's the last time we'll play them for a while(Unless we go to the B1G) and Cal has been due for a big upset for a while now. They must beat one of the teams from the Say your prayers group or I won't feel all that hopeful going into the future. And they should have six wins even without that.
Barring opposing QB injuries tho, wins at Washington, Utah, USC, and Oregon are unrealistic based on what we've seen from Wilcox teams to date...hopefully things change, and I'm pumped about Spav, Sammy Jax and the WR additions. I just think 2024 is legitimately the potential breakout year given the expected dip in strength of the P12 because of the QB talent on the above referenced that will be gone...Caleb Williams, Michael Penix, Cam Rising and Bo Nix ALL figure to get drafted...that's nuts.
In years like this besides the vagaries of football generally, and the high variance nature of Cal in particular, I just hope to dear Buddha that we win some fun games, like Rug says. Beat one of UW, USC, OSU, OR and also, of course, Furd. Our inability to win on the road is perhaps the single most indicting thing against Wilcox. I don't know that I've read an analysis of how Cal does on the road vs. other teams, but it sure seems much worse.
If we go 4-2 at home we can have a decent season (six wins). If we manage a fifth home win we'll exceed all expectations. But .500 or worse at home means disaster and probably the end for Wilcox. To win four at home means beating Idaho, ASU and two from Auburn, OSU and WSU (or a stunning upset of U$C). It's doable. We've also got to beat North Texas and retain the Axe. I guess 6-6 gives Wilcox one last shot.
I'm calling it right now. 9-3:
Wins: Auburn, North Texas, ASU, WSU, Oregon, UCLA, Idaho, Oregon State, Stanford
Losses: USC, Washington, Utah
Stingy defense FINALLY matches an offense that can get to 30 points regularly.
I think Cal more than most teams in the Pac are a high variance team. We just don't know what the team will look like due to the changes and the questions in certain position groups. I would like to think our defense will be better, perhaps one of the top defenses in the PAC. I also think the offense will be better. I wonder about the run/pass split. We are deep and talented at RB, our new QB can run, and it is easier for linemen to run block. Some of our lineman may grade out higher as run blockers than pass protectors. So even though our offense is changing, it will be interesting to see if this is a play good defense and use short passes offense.
With this in mind, I think of our schedule as dividing into four groups rather than three.
Group 1: Idaho, Stanford, N. Texas. We should win these. We should run on them and be able to limit their scoring. Even with N. Texas, we should be able to match up in the secondary and make tackles.
Group 2: Auburn, ASU and WSU. These teams have better talent than Group 1, but have issues of one kind or another, including two new coaching staffs and schemes, questions on the offensive and defensive lines for two of them, plus we play all of them at home. Auburn is the key one because of their talent and coaching but fortunately we get them early, at home, and at a late start time for them. We should be able to run on ASU and WSU. Auburn is a good test because of their talent especially on the lines..
Group 3: $C, OSU and UCLA. They have issues (defense, passing and defense/new QB), but less so than Group 2. We should be 2 score dogs but we have a chance. We might be able to stop or slow down OSU's run game. I especially like the $C game as a trap game where they play 5 ranked teams before and after us, we are at home coming off a bye week, plus it is the Joe Roth game, and our last chance to say FU before they go to the B10. Also, the $C and UCLA games are later in the year when our offense may be more developed. That said, we always have trouble with UCLA. The only reason I put them here is because it is the last game of the year and we may shape up by then, they have no home field attendance or advantage, and we may be looking for our 6th win.
Group 4. Oregon, Wash and Utah all on the road. Stable coaching staffs/schemes, lots of talent, strong home field advantages. Plus we play WA earlier in the season while our offense is still maturing. They have a good front 7 so we need to throw. I don't see any of these as possible unless our offense makes stunning progress early on. WA can just outscore us. Utah can stop us. And Oregon has advantages on both sides of the ball.
I 100% agree. One thing I will say is that we have fantastic bulletin board material for the LA schools and I would be surprised if we don't get one on them. The hostile energy in Memorial stadium for our last USC game will be higher than its ever been in recent memory.
Recent history would suggest swapping fUcla and UW, but think we can grab one from group four either way.
UCLA - Chip Kelly always has our number and calls brilliant offensive plays that always keep us off balance. This will be a tough one.
USC - has Caleb Williams, simply the best QB in college football right now, an improved offense (hard to imagine), and a better defense. They could be playoff bound, but then we have a way of playing them very well. If our defense can beat up Williams the way Utah did, we will have a chance.
Utah - The Utes brand is smashmouth football, The take the field with lesser talent than many opponents and beat them out with pure tough, physical play. I love Utah football. And their QB, Cam Rising, is their spiritual leader. The guy plays with heart and toughness and his fellow Utes rise with Rising. This will be a tough game no matter what.
Oregon - Oregon has talent, but we have had their number for years, beating them or coming close to beating them even with their superior talent. I say this game is 50/50.
Auburn - this will be interesting. They have talent but do they have a QB? We've heard that question. The winner of this game will be the team who has the better QB. Just like Sam Jackson is slated to be our starting QB, but not guaranteed, Michigan transfer Payton Thorne is in the same position at Auburn. But Michigan has not had a series of great starting QB's let alone back ups. The QB match up might tip in our favor.
We could lose any of the games we play, and we can win any of them. I'm sure will win an upset or two and lose one we're not supposed to. This is college football. Unless you are GA, Bama, OSU...this will happen. I'm just looking forward to watching CAL play football on Fall Saturday's with a new offense and some new talent. I'm not worried about W's or L's. I just want to have fun.
Fans and analysts talking of 8 wins are delusional. 6 wins is possible, and for Wilcox to keep his job, it should be the benchmark. He made this bed.
The ceiling is about 8 wins, and eventually they will have to overperform. Think of how many games last year were one score games that could have went the other way. That pendulum has to swing the other way eventually.
Good point. While the pendulum is due to swing the other way, there’s no denying that close, one-score games that turn on a handful of plays has been a Wilcox hallmark throughout his six seasons…in that regard, ‘22 looked a helluva lot like other years…
The difference is our opponents have gotten drastically better, especially at the QB position…the current P12 stable of QBs is as solid and deep as I can recall.
Spavital and Bloesch hold the keys…can we take the new additions and finally scheme and produce a competent O? If so, the Bears could definitely surprise.
Auburn is the benchmark for the year. Talent this. Sec that. They went 5-7 and were on life support vs sjsu last year. They don't win here and asu wsu and Stanford or highly questionable games.
I agree Auburn is big because Cal needs to win as many at CMS as they can, but I’ll throw at North Texas in as the benchmark of the year, and for this reason: Wilcox has not shown a consistent ability to get the team ready to play on the road. Losses at Arizona and Colorado the past two seasons should never have happened in a healthy program, and at Denton is the closest thing we’ve got to those two disasters. Can Wilcox & staff have the team ready to go on the road, in the heat, and beat a team that is absolutely fired up to play them? They were decent last year but lost a lot, including coaching, but now have Eric Morris as HC, who knows Cal from Wazzu last year. They also have a former Cal grad transfer target at QB. Cal is the first P5 school in, like, forever to travel to the Mean Green…the Bears are 9.5 point favorites…
You absolutely have gotta win this one…an L and the DOOOOOM and doubt scenario starts to creep into the team and fan base.
This is a horrible scheduling bit, as well…F you Sonny.
Yep
I love DMF's breakdown. The tough schedule is necessary for National relevance. They are already calling us a scrub team. Writing us off. The tone must be set early. We MUST win our first 3 games and win the games in the conference we are supposed to win. We can get 6 games, but no freebie games can be spared.
It's true the SEC voices are saying Cal is a gimme vs. Auburn. I think it will be a close game. Playing at 10:30 pm their time gives us a bit of an advantage.
I saw a podcast where they said the average score was 37-13. wild how much they underestimate us
And yet sports sites have it as a coin flip game. It's just SEC bravado. They'll then be "bad" until they beat a few SEC teams and everyone forgets about us.
Cal has to beat someone they aren't supposed to beat. They can't just get by anymore by beating the teams they are supposed to. It's not enough anymore. Playing up and upsetting teams is the best way to change. I feel it in my bones the best time to do this is to beat USC on Halloween. It's the last time we'll play them for a while(Unless we go to the B1G) and Cal has been due for a big upset for a while now. They must beat one of the teams from the Say your prayers group or I won't feel all that hopeful going into the future. And they should have six wins even without that.
If Cal's going to bowl, my 6 realistic must-wins:
@ North Texas
v. Auburn
v. Idaho
v. ASU
v. Wazzu
@ 'Furd
Maybe you steal one @ Oregon St. and/or @ UCLA...
Barring opposing QB injuries tho, wins at Washington, Utah, USC, and Oregon are unrealistic based on what we've seen from Wilcox teams to date...hopefully things change, and I'm pumped about Spav, Sammy Jax and the WR additions. I just think 2024 is legitimately the potential breakout year given the expected dip in strength of the P12 because of the QB talent on the above referenced that will be gone...Caleb Williams, Michael Penix, Cam Rising and Bo Nix ALL figure to get drafted...that's nuts.
We're 2-2 against UW the last 4 years, all one score games, one in overtime, so if I had to pick an nice upset win I'd go for that one.
In years like this besides the vagaries of football generally, and the high variance nature of Cal in particular, I just hope to dear Buddha that we win some fun games, like Rug says. Beat one of UW, USC, OSU, OR and also, of course, Furd. Our inability to win on the road is perhaps the single most indicting thing against Wilcox. I don't know that I've read an analysis of how Cal does on the road vs. other teams, but it sure seems much worse.
If we go 4-2 at home we can have a decent season (six wins). If we manage a fifth home win we'll exceed all expectations. But .500 or worse at home means disaster and probably the end for Wilcox. To win four at home means beating Idaho, ASU and two from Auburn, OSU and WSU (or a stunning upset of U$C). It's doable. We've also got to beat North Texas and retain the Axe. I guess 6-6 gives Wilcox one last shot.
6-6 and he's probably off any hot seat.
Not deserving of a bronze statue in front of Memorial (yet) but off the hot seat.
Yes, off the hot seat but it'll still be warm entering 2024.
He needs to bowl in at least one of the next two seasons, IMO...
Odd years are always tough, but this is as tough as it can get.