Cal football has one of the toughest schedules in 2023. What's the path to a bowl game?
Stanford aside, what are the must-win games for the California Golden Bears?
Bad news: The California Golden Bears are coming off a 4-8 season.
Worse news: That 4-8 season was one of Cal’s easier schedules.
Cal flipped from Arizona (yay!) and Colorado (who could’ve lost that?) to Arizona State (unclear) and your defending Pac-12 champion Utah. On paper, this is one of the hardest schedules in the Pac-12, and in the country.
There are six heavy favorites to win the Pac-12 title. Cal plays all of them., including four of those teams (Oregon, Utah, UCLA, Washington) on the road.
Cal plays four of those teams (Oregon State, at Utah, USC, at Oregon, although there’s a bye in the middle) in a row.
247Sports ranks Cal’s schedule as the ninth toughest in college football. College Football News places Cal at third.
So let’s break it down piece by piece. what are the must-win games for Cal this year?
The essentials
Idaho. Don’t have to explain much here. Beat your FCS opponent. But the Vandals will not be an easy foe. They’ll have the offense to challenge the Bears down the field.
at North Texas. This is not an easy game. Cal will be favored and should be able to move the football. But expect the Mean Green to keep up with the yards and the points.
at Stanford. Troy Taylor has momentum going in the right direction recruiting-wise this season. But as a football team this year, Stanford should be dreadful. Cal should win the Axe for the third year in a row or it will be danger zone time for Justin Wilcox.
Arizona State. The season turns at the end of this month. ASU is a Pac-12 team that is in transition between coaches and systems, and has a lot of holes they will be trying to patch up when they come to Strawberry Canyon. If the Bears have figured things out, this is one they should win.
Pick two of four
Washington State. Wazzu has had Cal’s number the last two years, but hopefully Cal’s new offensive philosophy will turn the tables. This is usually Cal’s easiest Pac-12 opponent every year, so it’ll be crucial for Cal to flip this dynamic to make any positive turnaround.
Auburn. The Tigers are very talented. But they will still be trying to figure out who they are when they visit Cal, so you’d expect this one to go down to the final minutes if both teams are still figuring things out in Week 2.
Oregon State. If Cal drops one of the six winnable games above, this is the one the Bears need to have. The Beavers have proven to be a much stronger home team than road team, and their defense is losing a ton of depth. But Oregon State’s offensive line will be no joke at all.
at Washington. Of all the Pac-12 teams returning, the Huskies feel like the one that Cal generally keeps close contact with and can often sneak out a win (the last two losses and wins came down to the final seconds). But this is definitely a dangerous team with a great quarterback and a good coach and Seattle is no joke.
Say your prayers
at UCLA. Cal never wins in Pasadena unless the Bruins are an injury cart. Doesn’t matter if they’re starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Kevin Prince. This is an uncertain Bruins squad as they turn over nearly their entire offensive squad. Still, if his team is healthy and executing, Chip Kelly generally has had his way with Justin Wilcox.
USC. Cal gave it their all last year on offense to nearly pull off the upset. The bad news is that offense is mostly gone and USC’s offense (headlined by Caleb Williams and a deep receiving corps) is mostly back. This is in Berkeley, so hopefully things can get a little crazy, but a lot has to go right for the Bears to be able to keep up on Halloween.
at Oregon. Cal has won in Autzen once in the last 35 years. Even though the last two Cal appearances in Eugene have been close calls, with Bo Nix, Troy Franklin and one of the best offensive lines in the conference back, this does feel like a good matchup for the Bears unless the offense really starts to click by mid-season.
at Utah. The Utes are the biggest question mark of these four, with Cam Rising’s health a question mark and some crucial pieces gone from the back-to-back Pac-12 champions. But it’s in Rice-Eccles, where Utah has lost one home game in the last five years. Unless things go horribly wrong for Kyle Whittingham, I’m not betting on Cal to be the one to reverse the trend.
Aside from Stanford, what do you see as Cal’s most important game of the year to get back to respectability? Let us know in the comments.
I think Cal more than most teams in the Pac are a high variance team. We just don't know what the team will look like due to the changes and the questions in certain position groups. I would like to think our defense will be better, perhaps one of the top defenses in the PAC. I also think the offense will be better. I wonder about the run/pass split. We are deep and talented at RB, our new QB can run, and it is easier for linemen to run block. Some of our lineman may grade out higher as run blockers than pass protectors. So even though our offense is changing, it will be interesting to see if this is a play good defense and use short passes offense.
With this in mind, I think of our schedule as dividing into four groups rather than three.
Group 1: Idaho, Stanford, N. Texas. We should win these. We should run on them and be able to limit their scoring. Even with N. Texas, we should be able to match up in the secondary and make tackles.
Group 2: Auburn, ASU and WSU. These teams have better talent than Group 1, but have issues of one kind or another, including two new coaching staffs and schemes, questions on the offensive and defensive lines for two of them, plus we play all of them at home. Auburn is the key one because of their talent and coaching but fortunately we get them early, at home, and at a late start time for them. We should be able to run on ASU and WSU. Auburn is a good test because of their talent especially on the lines..
Group 3: $C, OSU and UCLA. They have issues (defense, passing and defense/new QB), but less so than Group 2. We should be 2 score dogs but we have a chance. We might be able to stop or slow down OSU's run game. I especially like the $C game as a trap game where they play 5 ranked teams before and after us, we are at home coming off a bye week, plus it is the Joe Roth game, and our last chance to say FU before they go to the B10. Also, the $C and UCLA games are later in the year when our offense may be more developed. That said, we always have trouble with UCLA. The only reason I put them here is because it is the last game of the year and we may shape up by then, they have no home field attendance or advantage, and we may be looking for our 6th win.
Group 4. Oregon, Wash and Utah all on the road. Stable coaching staffs/schemes, lots of talent, strong home field advantages. Plus we play WA earlier in the season while our offense is still maturing. They have a good front 7 so we need to throw. I don't see any of these as possible unless our offense makes stunning progress early on. WA can just outscore us. Utah can stop us. And Oregon has advantages on both sides of the ball.
UCLA - Chip Kelly always has our number and calls brilliant offensive plays that always keep us off balance. This will be a tough one.
USC - has Caleb Williams, simply the best QB in college football right now, an improved offense (hard to imagine), and a better defense. They could be playoff bound, but then we have a way of playing them very well. If our defense can beat up Williams the way Utah did, we will have a chance.
Utah - The Utes brand is smashmouth football, The take the field with lesser talent than many opponents and beat them out with pure tough, physical play. I love Utah football. And their QB, Cam Rising, is their spiritual leader. The guy plays with heart and toughness and his fellow Utes rise with Rising. This will be a tough game no matter what.
Oregon - Oregon has talent, but we have had their number for years, beating them or coming close to beating them even with their superior talent. I say this game is 50/50.
Auburn - this will be interesting. They have talent but do they have a QB? We've heard that question. The winner of this game will be the team who has the better QB. Just like Sam Jackson is slated to be our starting QB, but not guaranteed, Michigan transfer Payton Thorne is in the same position at Auburn. But Michigan has not had a series of great starting QB's let alone back ups. The QB match up might tip in our favor.
We could lose any of the games we play, and we can win any of them. I'm sure will win an upset or two and lose one we're not supposed to. This is college football. Unless you are GA, Bama, OSU...this will happen. I'm just looking forward to watching CAL play football on Fall Saturday's with a new offense and some new talent. I'm not worried about W's or L's. I just want to have fun.