The California Golden Bears have a host of options in realignment, none of them super desirable, ranging from Big 12 to Mountain West to American to Pac-4.
Actually my first impression is that this wouldn’t be too bad, given the alternatives. I hope that both Apple and ESPN are involved. If so, maybe the media rights $$ won’t be as low as feared.
It absolutely shouldn’t. It’s only a matter of time…they will never have another chance to get 2 national brands as strong as Cal and Stanford, in as large a market as the Bay Area.
The ACC is suffering from the same incompetent leadership that plagued the PAC 12…worse, actually, because they just saw a conference with 100 years of history fold yet are committing the exact same mistakes. FSU and Clemson are gone within 2 years and then the ACC will be done.
The author is a Lehigh fan. The suggestions might work if we had Lehigh-level program expenses and stadium debt. As is, if we did what he suggests we would have the NCAA minimum 6 men's and 8 women's sports, all on shoestring budgets, and would probably still need some sort of bailout on the stadium debt.
"In the end, this is something that shouldn’t be about something dying, but about a new opportunity to recreate college sports the way it should be."
Cal is one of the greatest universities in the world. We need to stop begging for media deal scraps. $30-40M is chump change in the grand scheme of things. Instead, we need to take a step forward and build a conference that prioritizes the things we value. And yes, I think we can do this and still be reasonable competitive at D1 football.
Last Friday, Nebraska's AD Trev Alberts mentioned during an interview that he (Alberts) doesn't believe conference reorganization for the B1G is over by any means. Alberts went on to predict that major changes regarding certain conference realignment and membership is likely to occur sooner than some might think. Albertsthy did not elaborate what teams and/or conferences this might involve. I have no insight into the discussions but it is known that Alberts does ... so expect something major probably within the next year. Who knows?
I don't see that happening. Teh only way Stanford leaves Cal behind is if Notre Dame agrees to joint the BiG for football if they also bring in Stanford. But note, ND is contractually obligated to join the ACC for football if it decides to join a conference. Thus, ND would have to vote to blow up the ACC before it could move to the BiG. And becoming the deciding vote to destroy a conference is not good optics for the Irish.
Otherwise it is logistically advantageous for leagues to add schools in pairs. Moreover, Stanford could make the pitch that they and Cal could share charter flights to games & weekends to reduce travel costs. For example, charter the baseball teams to RDU where Cal plays NC State and Stanford goes to Chapel Hill each for a 3 game weekend before returning home.
Yup, and Notre Dame's actions in pushing for ACC expansion pretty strongly demonstrate that they aren't interested in going anywhere. At this point, if the B1G expands it is Stanford and Cal or nothing.
well if it's really the big furd donors behind this, its hard to blame them. Without big conference money, its up to them to pay the bills needed to keep them competitive.
just realizing now that the big donors are the biggest financial losers in the P12 implosion fiasco
There's now a guy on BearInsider who claims to have a good contact in the Cal administration saying "B1G is back on the table." No idea if he knows anything (though FWIW, earlier in the month he claimed that there were no talks happening with the B1G).
But if I were to read the tea leaves optimistically . . .
We've seen the rumors of Stanford making a big push to get in. It also seems pretty clear that no one is leaving the ACC right now (including Notre Dame). If the B1G and/or Fox did see the light (or have their palms greased) and now want to add Stanford they'd probably want them to come in with a partner so they're not left with an awkward 19-team league. Who else is going to be available and a better fit than Cal? As side benefits: The political pressure from the state of California is gone. The B1G presidents are happy to get two academic titans in the conference. The travel cost for the other four west coast schools is lessened. Kind of works out for everyone.
Anyway, that's the optimistic reading. Doom is also always possible!
Well it was only matter of time before the Stanfurd went rogue. If this happened (Trees to B1G without Cal) talk about salt in an open wound. I might have to off myself.
Looks like Luck is putting together a list of teams that might be accretive to the PAC 4, supposedly up to 12 candidates. This doesn't mean an AAC or ACC deal is dead, though the latter may be on life support.
I heard about this. Apparently the remaining four have bypassed GK and are working w/ Luck independently. If true, there is a lot to be learned from this.
The market has stated that Cal's value is $20m, if Luck can figure a short term solution and get a West coast pod I feel that is worth pursuing.
From my understanding, "power 5" status is just a media designation. The NCAA has an "autonomous conference" designation that also happens to be assigned to the power 5, but from what I can tell that designation doesn't really matter much. Supposedly it allows the five conferences some autonomy around creating their own rules when it comes to recruiting, but I have yet to see an example of what practical changes that entails, and regardless, I don't think G5 conferences get excluded from those rules, it's just that the P5 can set rules that unfairly advantage their schools (because they have more resources). I highly suspect that NIL has pretty much negated whatever power the autonomy designation was supposed to provide (autonomy was given in 2014, so whatever changes happened should be well backed in to the landscape at this point).
And for what it is worth, I suspect our status as an "autonomous" conference is not really at risk. If we shut down the conference, then yeah, it probably goes away. But if we manage to keep the conference alive, It seems like such a pointless bureaucratic designation that I don't think anyone is going to campaign to take it away from us, and I think we will have a vote in the matter so they might not even be able to strip us of it regardless.
I think Power 5 mattered a lot more in the BCS and four team playoff era. Now that we are moving to 12 teams, there will be more than enough room to include a few G5 teams in the playoff. So if we rebuild the Pac-12, it doesn't really matter if the media stops considering us a P5 conference. And the reality is, if we rebuild with the top AAC and MWC teams, the new Pac-12 is going to be competitive enough with the ACC and Big12 that they should probably be careful about lobbying for any sort of "relegation" of the Pac-12.
From what I've read it sounds like there is a two year grace period for a conference to add new members before it loses power 5 status. So even with four teams the PAC 4 cannot be relegated to oblivion. The two year grace period I believe would start in 2024. With Luck and whomever else is working on this it seems probable that an acceptable conference can be cobbled together by 2025. This is all relevant if no ACC or Big10 deal can be struck.
If Cal is left with the Pac4 + a bunch of mid-majors, you’re a G5…NIL support from influential donors will disappear, and there’s a mass exodus via the transfer portal in December. Now you’re trying to re-build literally from the ground up, with NO NIL $$$, a marginal TV contract, and a massive department deficit. Cal football is basically dead, which means the athletic department is basically dead.
Only way we get into ACC.. ranging from 5% probability to -10%
1) NC State - Ok you convinced me, NC will ditch us soon as they can, forget NC, I'll vote for the good guys and watch out for ourselves
2) ND - Oh we'll have football join ACC, but only if Stanford & Cal comes.
3) Lucky Rice - Pull some strings, makes some threats, promises some $$..... oh please...
4) ESPN - We want west coast games for our night slots. We'll pay extra $$ to all teams and cover all travel expenses. (even better would be to offer $10M to the first "no" team to vote "yes" muaha)
5) ACC gives Florida State a opt-out in X years if they agree to just say YES so they can build a stronger conference before they leave.
6) Florida State Boosters - we'll pay for FS State to pull out of ACC. Now ACC has more reason to expand and one less "No" voter. Convinces other nos to yes bc they know ACC needs more now.
7) Pac 4 goes one more year. Pac4 demolishes other p5 conferences in non-conference schedule. Cal football & basketball go undefeated. Sweeps championships in the greatest underdog story ever told. ACC doesn't make it into championship bowls. ACC votes them in next year.
of course these are all made in jest.. don't take it seriously
where are all those CAL tech billionaire boosters...
Cal merging with the AAC, or bringing MWC teams into a new conference with Stanford, OSU & Wazzu, is a death sentence for the athletic department. It is a path to contraction, not success.
The only hope for survival is somehow remaining in a Power 5…that’s it. Not negativity, just a harsh reality.
If Luck, or Condy Rice can help facilitate that, great. But that’s where we’re at.
Condi Rice was a member of the College Football Playoff Committee, so at minimum, influential people will take her call. (btw: Daddy Luck was also on the CFB committee.)
A reconstituted PAC will be either the worst P5 conference and/or the best G5 (by a wide margin). Either way the CFP has the appetite for giving G5 schools a seat at the table, so even if the CFP structure changes, the reconstituted PAC will almost certainly have a path to sending at least one school to the CFP every year.
And this is important because of all the four remaining schools in the PAC, Cal probably has the highest ceiling for rebuilding fan interest and non-media revenue (ticket sales, donations, etc...). A few years of CFP appearances could be the spark we need to get the program back on track. Combined with the calimony, we can absolutely make this work.
Of course, I should be clear. Merging conferences is not the way to go. The brand value that we bring to either the AAC or MWC would get diluted too heavily across the ~12 teams, so any new media deal would probably only be a few million more than what they are making now. We need to grab the best of the AAC/MWC to make sure the PAC stays as relevant as possible. That might require waiting a year or two for teams to become available. That is why the calimony is key here, it can tide us over until we get the conference up and running again.
Wait that is the other way around. A few years of CFP appearances to spark the program to get back on track? The end result (and Cal's ceiling) will be the CFP appearance.
Unfortunately you’re almost certainly losing the NIL support that Cal has quietly built the past 12 months if we land in a G5 MWC/AAC. And that would be devastating because you’re then losing most of the roster to the portal, and you’re starting from scratch…as a G5 school. It’s over:
Ideally P5 but in reality, who is interested? Appears only the ACC and I am not so sure that is a good move financially due to travel costs, unless it's football only. The payout isn't enough to send all of the non-revenue sports across country.
The networks bridge the gap to assist in travel. ACC makes bank by getting into CA. There’s plenty of money. Plenty. Gotta flip idiotic NC State, who’s stubbornly siding with UNC even though there’s zero chance they follow the Heels.
An AAC merger involves similar travel constraints to ACC with half the money…and you’re a mid-major in a pod with UT-San Antonio and North Texas…hard pass.
MWC-hybrid the $ is nowhere near enough…Apple? Please. Not an option. It’s gonna be a crucial week, but the P5 track ain’t done yet. Let’s keep the positive thoughts - Cal absolutely brings value.
Saw reports that Condoleezza Rice is acting as an advisor for Stanford regarding realignment. Not sure how actively involved or invested she is but I would trust her infinitely more than clueless Knowlton and Christ. Hopefully the Cal Stanford connection pays dividends here since our “leadership” is essentially useless.
Here's an interesting breakdown of the rankings, budgets, etc. for football, MBB, the entire athletic department, and academic/fiscal/enrollment numbers for the assorted universities that could serve as Pac expansion candidates. Of the 19 candidates, 13 are R1 institutions but the R2 institutions have some of the stronger football/athletic departments (SDSU, SMU, FSU and BSU). Only Tulane (good athletic candidate), Rice (bad athletics candidate) and USF (good candidate but far away) are AAU schools. Https://twitter.com/TJAltimore/status/1690333798251089921
SDSU is "pending R1" and SMU has outlined a path to R1. Fresno just got bumped up to R2 in 2022, BSU in 2019. Moving up but still probably a while away from R1.
Definitely good enough for a new Pac if it came down to it. I don't think the AAU thing is a feasible barrier anymore when most nearby AAU schools bailed for another conference.
Not advocating but I wonder if a merger with MW with unequal revenue split is possible. Today MW is 11 at $4M per, and if Conzano's numbers in Calmate's post are correct, the bay area schools add $70M. Throw in OSO/WSU for another 50, then you have a 15-team conference with $165M. Pay the old members 6 instead of 4, leaving 100 split 4 ways for the old P12 teams. MW teams win by getting more money and a place in a power 5 conference. P12 teams salvage a portion of their existing revenue, and geography makes sense. Lots of holes but its a possible plan B if a true P5 invite is not in the cards.
At most the Bay Area schools add $40m. We know that because to date that is all the market has offered per the Apple offer. One can't assume more than that given the current market. Fox or anyone else would be a fool to offer Cal more than that. Now, is the leadership team smart enuff to figure this out and create a gap between now and the next BIG conference alignments/negotiations? I doubt it, neither Christ nor Knowlton ever had the critical thinking ability to see this crisis coming. As been said ad nauseum, Knowlton isn't a leader he's an idiot and the worst person to be navigating Cal atm.
That’s not the way it works though. Just because an analyst says Cal & Stanford are worth a certain amount, it’s not certain they will get it - especially not in an existing media agreement. If the MW adds the PAC-4, it’s be interesting to see what their existing media agreement says new adds get. Adding the PAC-4 schools will bring additional value at a future renegotiation for the MW, but how much value would be set by the media market.
Now, the MW dissolving & coming to to the PAC-12 as a media renegotiation ploy - that would be interesting but not sure how that would work…
I can't understand such posts on a blog with Cal folks. Teh Ivy League has no interest in expanding. Why do you think otherwise? Teh Ivy League busses to away games. The Ivy League members pay for their athletics out of their general education fund. Harvard is proud of supporting 40 varsity sports, but then H can afford it as their endowment is larger than many states's budgets. Do you really beleive that Cal faculty would approve the Chancellor removing millions of dollars from their academic budgets to pay for baseball?
Obviously, sarcasm doesn’t translate well on message boards. But if Cal fans (and leadership) are more worried about academic prestige and cultural ‘fit’ than athletic survival, maybe the Ivy League isn’t such a dumb idea 😂
In the meantime, we should be begging for entry on reduced terms (if needed) to the Big 10, Big 12, and ACC (in that order)
Take a look at this article written by Conzano about the media value of Pac-12 schools. He had former sports networks president Bob Thompson crunched the numbers. He estimated that Cal is worth 32.3 million and Stanford 38.7 million (without USC and UCLA).
If the estimate is correct, (as it was for Oregon and Washington at the time) a bid of 15 million for Cal and Stanford each would be low and a result of them having leverage over us instead of the schools actual value.
According to Bob Thompson, Apple low balled the PAC 12. He thinks Apple could have easily offered more but for some reason didn't do enough to enter the market. Also, the 4 corners schools were offered the same $20m by Apple and then got $30m from the B12. I'm not convinced that we are worth no more than $20m although now that we have no leverage it's probably all we can get.
to paraphrase Bill Parcells: you are what your market value says you are.
Apple offered what apple offered. It was a show-me contract: you two teams claim that you have potential, and lotsa eyeballs in the BA, so if you gain more eyeballs, you make a lot more money.
I agree. So if Apple offered 20m and there is an offer at some point in the coming weeks from the B12 for 30m, we will find out if in fact our market value is no more than 20m as someone previously stated. I heard from the network executive that we are worth more than 20m, and I agree based on the formula he presented to make his argument. He could obviously be mistaken and so can I for accepting his evidence. Either way we will find out soon.
If we do some kind of merger with the AAC. Go to 4 pods. Pod 1 Cal/Furd/Oreg st/wash st, pod 2 Rice SMU/Tulane/Tulsa, pod 3 USF/UAB/Memphis/ECU, pod 4 Temple/UCONN/UMASS/Buffalo. Only real question marks academically would be Memphis/ECU. Everyone else ranks higher than Wash St. would have 3 TV windows covered. 4 games outside of time zone per year. 6 AAU members. 12/16 would be R1 schools.
If we are going to take UNLV, then we should also take UNR. Most of the people that go to UNR are not from Reno...and their football and basketball are better than UNLV.
I appreciate the reply. Yes I want to Cal step down in the revenue sports to level competitive for them. Id rather win a conference from time to time against relative equals than be a lamb to slaughter for the sake of $$. I can't be convinced based on history that Cal will ever be truly competitive on a sustainable basis in P5 revenue sports. The university doesn't care enough. Which is fine, just acknowledge it and find a place where you can compete. Selling out to the Big 10 to be a doormat in football so you can feed the non revenue sports is not honorable or remotely interesting IMHO.
No we wouldn't. By the end of this year, if nothing changes, 90%+ of our players enter the portal and no D1 players transfer in. Cal will be lucky to have talent commensurate with a top JC in the country.
This is what we should be talking about - how do we keep what we have and how do we recruit going forward? Does anyone know the transfer rules for a program that dies or switches conferences or downgrades? Also, for those athletes that don't have anywhere to go (Olympic sports) or chose to stay and get a degree will Cal honor that and pay for it?
the current Pac policy is that all recruited athletes are guaranteed a scholly, whether or not they play. So yes, Cal will pay for anyone who wants to stay. That said, anyone who enters the transfer portal forfeits that guarantee. (I would hope that Cal woudl maintain their scholly if they decide to stay, but Cal does not have to.)
All of the top athletes in the Olympic sports have plenty of places to go.
I can't envision a scenario where an athlete would want to stay at Cal given no conference opponents to compete against. I can envision a max exodus as individual seasons (e.g. football, basketball, rowing etc.) end this year and student-athletes enter the transfer portal IMMEDIATELY. Heck I can even envision some of our top athletes (the real good ones) opt to take a red-shirt to preserve a year of eligibility once they transfer. There isn't a good out here for Cal and its current coaches of teams. Just not seein' it at the moment.
If we move to the Mountain West the football program is going to implode so forget us being competitive short term. In the medium to long term I think Cal COULD be a perennial contender but if the administration doesn’t care that much about football in the major leagues why will they care about in the minors?
I believe its just as a likely we end up MWC conference doormat than a contender.
If by the grace of god we find ourselves in a P5, the university will have to care or else we won’t get the benefit of doubt in the next reshuffle. And because we have a mountain of debt and a state-of-the-art and stately 70k venue with no other useable purpose, we have no choice besides to court the most lucrative option, P5, relegation or otherwise. If we manage to stave off extinction, the silver lining is the university and athletic department will have to prioritize the revenue sports in a way it hasn’t for at least the past fifteen years or so.
https://twitter.com/OS_Beaver/status/1691612263822803053/photo/1
Temple has a football team?
Actually my first impression is that this wouldn’t be too bad, given the alternatives. I hope that both Apple and ESPN are involved. If so, maybe the media rights $$ won’t be as low as feared.
apple and espn logos are on the tweet that OC Bear linked to
Inneresting .
I would believe that alignments like this have been proposed, but not that it's been agreed to in any way.
Looking at it makes me want to believe, mostly so it'll just be over.
https://fansided.com/2023/08/15/florida-state-decision-acc-future/
looks like FSU is staying in the ACC, presumably ending the chances of Cal and furd joining
It absolutely shouldn’t. It’s only a matter of time…they will never have another chance to get 2 national brands as strong as Cal and Stanford, in as large a market as the Bay Area.
The ACC is suffering from the same incompetent leadership that plagued the PAC 12…worse, actually, because they just saw a conference with 100 years of history fold yet are committing the exact same mistakes. FSU and Clemson are gone within 2 years and then the ACC will be done.
This is a great article on the topic. Really hope Cal and Stanford go this route and don't sell out to the NIL world order ..
https://www.college-sports-journal.com/opinion-stanford-and-cal-have-the-opportunity-of-a-lifetime-to-restore-sanity-to-college-athletics/
The author is a Lehigh fan. The suggestions might work if we had Lehigh-level program expenses and stadium debt. As is, if we did what he suggests we would have the NCAA minimum 6 men's and 8 women's sports, all on shoestring budgets, and would probably still need some sort of bailout on the stadium debt.
I also like the sentiments but we don't have the right set of schools remaining to form an Ivy West.
I agree with the sentiments, but the truth is that there will be no money to support the athletic programs if they go this route.
This line in particular resonates with me:
"In the end, this is something that shouldn’t be about something dying, but about a new opportunity to recreate college sports the way it should be."
Cal is one of the greatest universities in the world. We need to stop begging for media deal scraps. $30-40M is chump change in the grand scheme of things. Instead, we need to take a step forward and build a conference that prioritizes the things we value. And yes, I think we can do this and still be reasonable competitive at D1 football.
The only thing dying is the way college sports “should” be.
Nobody is going to watch Cal vs UC Davis. If you’re going to go that route Cal might as well apply for Ivy League membership.
Last Friday, Nebraska's AD Trev Alberts mentioned during an interview that he (Alberts) doesn't believe conference reorganization for the B1G is over by any means. Alberts went on to predict that major changes regarding certain conference realignment and membership is likely to occur sooner than some might think. Albertsthy did not elaborate what teams and/or conferences this might involve. I have no insight into the discussions but it is known that Alberts does ... so expect something major probably within the next year. Who knows?
Might explain why UNC is being a b*tch.
Just seen a rumor that Furd is making a last ditch effort for the BIGTEN. Solo with no Cal attached.
I don't see that happening. Teh only way Stanford leaves Cal behind is if Notre Dame agrees to joint the BiG for football if they also bring in Stanford. But note, ND is contractually obligated to join the ACC for football if it decides to join a conference. Thus, ND would have to vote to blow up the ACC before it could move to the BiG. And becoming the deciding vote to destroy a conference is not good optics for the Irish.
Otherwise it is logistically advantageous for leagues to add schools in pairs. Moreover, Stanford could make the pitch that they and Cal could share charter flights to games & weekends to reduce travel costs. For example, charter the baseball teams to RDU where Cal plays NC State and Stanford goes to Chapel Hill each for a 3 game weekend before returning home.
Yup, and Notre Dame's actions in pushing for ACC expansion pretty strongly demonstrate that they aren't interested in going anywhere. At this point, if the B1G expands it is Stanford and Cal or nothing.
well if it's really the big furd donors behind this, its hard to blame them. Without big conference money, its up to them to pay the bills needed to keep them competitive.
just realizing now that the big donors are the biggest financial losers in the P12 implosion fiasco
There's now a guy on BearInsider who claims to have a good contact in the Cal administration saying "B1G is back on the table." No idea if he knows anything (though FWIW, earlier in the month he claimed that there were no talks happening with the B1G).
But if I were to read the tea leaves optimistically . . .
We've seen the rumors of Stanford making a big push to get in. It also seems pretty clear that no one is leaving the ACC right now (including Notre Dame). If the B1G and/or Fox did see the light (or have their palms greased) and now want to add Stanford they'd probably want them to come in with a partner so they're not left with an awkward 19-team league. Who else is going to be available and a better fit than Cal? As side benefits: The political pressure from the state of California is gone. The B1G presidents are happy to get two academic titans in the conference. The travel cost for the other four west coast schools is lessened. Kind of works out for everyone.
Anyway, that's the optimistic reading. Doom is also always possible!
Well it was only matter of time before the Stanfurd went rogue. If this happened (Trees to B1G without Cal) talk about salt in an open wound. I might have to off myself.
Im actually surprised Stanford waited this long before evaluating their going solo options.
https://twitter.com/flugempire/status/1691218202838040576
Not great!
Friggin' Condi.
Looks like Luck is putting together a list of teams that might be accretive to the PAC 4, supposedly up to 12 candidates. This doesn't mean an AAC or ACC deal is dead, though the latter may be on life support.
I’m all for preserving the PAC. I just don’t want us to be part of it.
I heard about this. Apparently the remaining four have bypassed GK and are working w/ Luck independently. If true, there is a lot to be learned from this.
The market has stated that Cal's value is $20m, if Luck can figure a short term solution and get a West coast pod I feel that is worth pursuing.
one key question is whether or not a resurrected Pac-12 gets power 5 status. Has anyone heard anything?
From my understanding, "power 5" status is just a media designation. The NCAA has an "autonomous conference" designation that also happens to be assigned to the power 5, but from what I can tell that designation doesn't really matter much. Supposedly it allows the five conferences some autonomy around creating their own rules when it comes to recruiting, but I have yet to see an example of what practical changes that entails, and regardless, I don't think G5 conferences get excluded from those rules, it's just that the P5 can set rules that unfairly advantage their schools (because they have more resources). I highly suspect that NIL has pretty much negated whatever power the autonomy designation was supposed to provide (autonomy was given in 2014, so whatever changes happened should be well backed in to the landscape at this point).
And for what it is worth, I suspect our status as an "autonomous" conference is not really at risk. If we shut down the conference, then yeah, it probably goes away. But if we manage to keep the conference alive, It seems like such a pointless bureaucratic designation that I don't think anyone is going to campaign to take it away from us, and I think we will have a vote in the matter so they might not even be able to strip us of it regardless.
I think Power 5 mattered a lot more in the BCS and four team playoff era. Now that we are moving to 12 teams, there will be more than enough room to include a few G5 teams in the playoff. So if we rebuild the Pac-12, it doesn't really matter if the media stops considering us a P5 conference. And the reality is, if we rebuild with the top AAC and MWC teams, the new Pac-12 is going to be competitive enough with the ACC and Big12 that they should probably be careful about lobbying for any sort of "relegation" of the Pac-12.
From what I've read it sounds like there is a two year grace period for a conference to add new members before it loses power 5 status. So even with four teams the PAC 4 cannot be relegated to oblivion. The two year grace period I believe would start in 2024. With Luck and whomever else is working on this it seems probable that an acceptable conference can be cobbled together by 2025. This is all relevant if no ACC or Big10 deal can be struck.
If Cal is left with the Pac4 + a bunch of mid-majors, you’re a G5…NIL support from influential donors will disappear, and there’s a mass exodus via the transfer portal in December. Now you’re trying to re-build literally from the ground up, with NO NIL $$$, a marginal TV contract, and a massive department deficit. Cal football is basically dead, which means the athletic department is basically dead.
Only way we get into ACC.. ranging from 5% probability to -10%
1) NC State - Ok you convinced me, NC will ditch us soon as they can, forget NC, I'll vote for the good guys and watch out for ourselves
2) ND - Oh we'll have football join ACC, but only if Stanford & Cal comes.
3) Lucky Rice - Pull some strings, makes some threats, promises some $$..... oh please...
4) ESPN - We want west coast games for our night slots. We'll pay extra $$ to all teams and cover all travel expenses. (even better would be to offer $10M to the first "no" team to vote "yes" muaha)
5) ACC gives Florida State a opt-out in X years if they agree to just say YES so they can build a stronger conference before they leave.
6) Florida State Boosters - we'll pay for FS State to pull out of ACC. Now ACC has more reason to expand and one less "No" voter. Convinces other nos to yes bc they know ACC needs more now.
7) Pac 4 goes one more year. Pac4 demolishes other p5 conferences in non-conference schedule. Cal football & basketball go undefeated. Sweeps championships in the greatest underdog story ever told. ACC doesn't make it into championship bowls. ACC votes them in next year.
of course these are all made in jest.. don't take it seriously
where are all those CAL tech billionaire boosters...
Cal merging with the AAC, or bringing MWC teams into a new conference with Stanford, OSU & Wazzu, is a death sentence for the athletic department. It is a path to contraction, not success.
The only hope for survival is somehow remaining in a Power 5…that’s it. Not negativity, just a harsh reality.
If Luck, or Condy Rice can help facilitate that, great. But that’s where we’re at.
Condi needs to start waterboarding some TV execs!
What does Rice know about this industry? I'll take her participation w/ a grain of salt (pun intended).
Condi Rice was a member of the College Football Playoff Committee, so at minimum, influential people will take her call. (btw: Daddy Luck was also on the CFB committee.)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/10/16/meet-the-faces-behind-the-college-football-playoff-selection-committee/2993911/
OK, I did not know that thank you.
A reconstituted PAC will be either the worst P5 conference and/or the best G5 (by a wide margin). Either way the CFP has the appetite for giving G5 schools a seat at the table, so even if the CFP structure changes, the reconstituted PAC will almost certainly have a path to sending at least one school to the CFP every year.
And this is important because of all the four remaining schools in the PAC, Cal probably has the highest ceiling for rebuilding fan interest and non-media revenue (ticket sales, donations, etc...). A few years of CFP appearances could be the spark we need to get the program back on track. Combined with the calimony, we can absolutely make this work.
Of course, I should be clear. Merging conferences is not the way to go. The brand value that we bring to either the AAC or MWC would get diluted too heavily across the ~12 teams, so any new media deal would probably only be a few million more than what they are making now. We need to grab the best of the AAC/MWC to make sure the PAC stays as relevant as possible. That might require waiting a year or two for teams to become available. That is why the calimony is key here, it can tide us over until we get the conference up and running again.
Wait that is the other way around. A few years of CFP appearances to spark the program to get back on track? The end result (and Cal's ceiling) will be the CFP appearance.
We have one season to prove ourselves before the transfer and recruiting purge sets in. People: buy some tickets!
I am coming up from SB to attend multiple home games this year, and am traveling to UW.
Really hope they get a P5 invite because my interest and support will unfortunately crater if we’re a G5…
Thanks for the intel.
Unfortunately you’re almost certainly losing the NIL support that Cal has quietly built the past 12 months if we land in a G5 MWC/AAC. And that would be devastating because you’re then losing most of the roster to the portal, and you’re starting from scratch…as a G5 school. It’s over:
Ideally P5 but in reality, who is interested? Appears only the ACC and I am not so sure that is a good move financially due to travel costs, unless it's football only. The payout isn't enough to send all of the non-revenue sports across country.
The networks bridge the gap to assist in travel. ACC makes bank by getting into CA. There’s plenty of money. Plenty. Gotta flip idiotic NC State, who’s stubbornly siding with UNC even though there’s zero chance they follow the Heels.
An AAC merger involves similar travel constraints to ACC with half the money…and you’re a mid-major in a pod with UT-San Antonio and North Texas…hard pass.
MWC-hybrid the $ is nowhere near enough…Apple? Please. Not an option. It’s gonna be a crucial week, but the P5 track ain’t done yet. Let’s keep the positive thoughts - Cal absolutely brings value.
Saw reports that Condoleezza Rice is acting as an advisor for Stanford regarding realignment. Not sure how actively involved or invested she is but I would trust her infinitely more than clueless Knowlton and Christ. Hopefully the Cal Stanford connection pays dividends here since our “leadership” is essentially useless.
Copying this from another thread:
Here's an interesting breakdown of the rankings, budgets, etc. for football, MBB, the entire athletic department, and academic/fiscal/enrollment numbers for the assorted universities that could serve as Pac expansion candidates. Of the 19 candidates, 13 are R1 institutions but the R2 institutions have some of the stronger football/athletic departments (SDSU, SMU, FSU and BSU). Only Tulane (good athletic candidate), Rice (bad athletics candidate) and USF (good candidate but far away) are AAU schools. Https://twitter.com/TJAltimore/status/1690333798251089921
SDSU is "pending R1" and SMU has outlined a path to R1. Fresno just got bumped up to R2 in 2022, BSU in 2019. Moving up but still probably a while away from R1.
Definitely good enough for a new Pac if it came down to it. I don't think the AAU thing is a feasible barrier anymore when most nearby AAU schools bailed for another conference.
Not advocating but I wonder if a merger with MW with unequal revenue split is possible. Today MW is 11 at $4M per, and if Conzano's numbers in Calmate's post are correct, the bay area schools add $70M. Throw in OSO/WSU for another 50, then you have a 15-team conference with $165M. Pay the old members 6 instead of 4, leaving 100 split 4 ways for the old P12 teams. MW teams win by getting more money and a place in a power 5 conference. P12 teams salvage a portion of their existing revenue, and geography makes sense. Lots of holes but its a possible plan B if a true P5 invite is not in the cards.
+Cal-imony
At most the Bay Area schools add $40m. We know that because to date that is all the market has offered per the Apple offer. One can't assume more than that given the current market. Fox or anyone else would be a fool to offer Cal more than that. Now, is the leadership team smart enuff to figure this out and create a gap between now and the next BIG conference alignments/negotiations? I doubt it, neither Christ nor Knowlton ever had the critical thinking ability to see this crisis coming. As been said ad nauseum, Knowlton isn't a leader he's an idiot and the worst person to be navigating Cal atm.
even at 40M, an unequal merger with the MW might be our best option.
And it looks like nobody in the P12 had the ability to see this coming, which is why they rejected ESPN's $30M per team offer last year.
That’s not the way it works though. Just because an analyst says Cal & Stanford are worth a certain amount, it’s not certain they will get it - especially not in an existing media agreement. If the MW adds the PAC-4, it’s be interesting to see what their existing media agreement says new adds get. Adding the PAC-4 schools will bring additional value at a future renegotiation for the MW, but how much value would be set by the media market.
Now, the MW dissolving & coming to to the PAC-12 as a media renegotiation ploy - that would be interesting but not sure how that would work…
Cal & Stanford to the Ivy League. It’s the only thing that makes sense.
I can't understand such posts on a blog with Cal folks. Teh Ivy League has no interest in expanding. Why do you think otherwise? Teh Ivy League busses to away games. The Ivy League members pay for their athletics out of their general education fund. Harvard is proud of supporting 40 varsity sports, but then H can afford it as their endowment is larger than many states's budgets. Do you really beleive that Cal faculty would approve the Chancellor removing millions of dollars from their academic budgets to pay for baseball?
Obviously, sarcasm doesn’t translate well on message boards. But if Cal fans (and leadership) are more worried about academic prestige and cultural ‘fit’ than athletic survival, maybe the Ivy League isn’t such a dumb idea 😂
In the meantime, we should be begging for entry on reduced terms (if needed) to the Big 10, Big 12, and ACC (in that order)
No it doesn't
Take a look at this article written by Conzano about the media value of Pac-12 schools. He had former sports networks president Bob Thompson crunched the numbers. He estimated that Cal is worth 32.3 million and Stanford 38.7 million (without USC and UCLA).
https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-geeking-out-on-the-media
If the estimate is correct, (as it was for Oregon and Washington at the time) a bid of 15 million for Cal and Stanford each would be low and a result of them having leverage over us instead of the schools actual value.
No they aren't. We know Cal's market value based on the only offer proffered: Apple said $20m, that's it!!
According to Bob Thompson, Apple low balled the PAC 12. He thinks Apple could have easily offered more but for some reason didn't do enough to enter the market. Also, the 4 corners schools were offered the same $20m by Apple and then got $30m from the B12. I'm not convinced that we are worth no more than $20m although now that we have no leverage it's probably all we can get.
to paraphrase Bill Parcells: you are what your market value says you are.
Apple offered what apple offered. It was a show-me contract: you two teams claim that you have potential, and lotsa eyeballs in the BA, so if you gain more eyeballs, you make a lot more money.
I agree. So if Apple offered 20m and there is an offer at some point in the coming weeks from the B12 for 30m, we will find out if in fact our market value is no more than 20m as someone previously stated. I heard from the network executive that we are worth more than 20m, and I agree based on the formula he presented to make his argument. He could obviously be mistaken and so can I for accepting his evidence. Either way we will find out soon.
If we do some kind of merger with the AAC. Go to 4 pods. Pod 1 Cal/Furd/Oreg st/wash st, pod 2 Rice SMU/Tulane/Tulsa, pod 3 USF/UAB/Memphis/ECU, pod 4 Temple/UCONN/UMASS/Buffalo. Only real question marks academically would be Memphis/ECU. Everyone else ranks higher than Wash St. would have 3 TV windows covered. 4 games outside of time zone per year. 6 AAU members. 12/16 would be R1 schools.
If ACC collapses, pick up the other high academic schools. Snatch up SDSU/Colorado St/UNLV when the MWC buyout is less.
If we are going to take UNLV, then we should also take UNR. Most of the people that go to UNR are not from Reno...and their football and basketball are better than UNLV.
The unlv add was strictly based on facilities and market for higher media deal
For other sports, lean heavy on scheduling between pod 1/2 and 3/4 to prevent excess travel.
The Big Ten isn’t going above 20 members and they’re saving a spot for ND. They’d take Pittsburgh over any of the PAC12 leftovers.
I appreciate the reply. Yes I want to Cal step down in the revenue sports to level competitive for them. Id rather win a conference from time to time against relative equals than be a lamb to slaughter for the sake of $$. I can't be convinced based on history that Cal will ever be truly competitive on a sustainable basis in P5 revenue sports. The university doesn't care enough. Which is fine, just acknowledge it and find a place where you can compete. Selling out to the Big 10 to be a doormat in football so you can feed the non revenue sports is not honorable or remotely interesting IMHO.
You know, I am pretty sure we could dominate, for a while, if we stepped down to junior college level.
No we wouldn't. By the end of this year, if nothing changes, 90%+ of our players enter the portal and no D1 players transfer in. Cal will be lucky to have talent commensurate with a top JC in the country.
But yeah I get sarcasm.
This is what we should be talking about - how do we keep what we have and how do we recruit going forward? Does anyone know the transfer rules for a program that dies or switches conferences or downgrades? Also, for those athletes that don't have anywhere to go (Olympic sports) or chose to stay and get a degree will Cal honor that and pay for it?
the current Pac policy is that all recruited athletes are guaranteed a scholly, whether or not they play. So yes, Cal will pay for anyone who wants to stay. That said, anyone who enters the transfer portal forfeits that guarantee. (I would hope that Cal woudl maintain their scholly if they decide to stay, but Cal does not have to.)
All of the top athletes in the Olympic sports have plenty of places to go.
I can't envision a scenario where an athlete would want to stay at Cal given no conference opponents to compete against. I can envision a max exodus as individual seasons (e.g. football, basketball, rowing etc.) end this year and student-athletes enter the transfer portal IMMEDIATELY. Heck I can even envision some of our top athletes (the real good ones) opt to take a red-shirt to preserve a year of eligibility once they transfer. There isn't a good out here for Cal and its current coaches of teams. Just not seein' it at the moment.
your point about a red-shirt year is a good one.
If we move to the Mountain West the football program is going to implode so forget us being competitive short term. In the medium to long term I think Cal COULD be a perennial contender but if the administration doesn’t care that much about football in the major leagues why will they care about in the minors?
I believe its just as a likely we end up MWC conference doormat than a contender.
Hadn't thought of that. If true, shut the football program down. I don't see a point to being a perennial loser.
If by the grace of god we find ourselves in a P5, the university will have to care or else we won’t get the benefit of doubt in the next reshuffle. And because we have a mountain of debt and a state-of-the-art and stately 70k venue with no other useable purpose, we have no choice besides to court the most lucrative option, P5, relegation or otherwise. If we manage to stave off extinction, the silver lining is the university and athletic department will have to prioritize the revenue sports in a way it hasn’t for at least the past fifteen years or so.