Let me add a wrinkle to his thread. The first point has already, to some degree, been said. The second point has yet to be made.
1) It seems that HS recruiting will mainly pay off if you have 4/5* guys that can play quickly. Talented kids that don't get playing time will be in the portal after year one. Less heralded kids that you can develop might also be valuable (think Mendoza) as you might get a cheap year or two out of them before they bolt.
2) Having relationships with HS recruits may pay delayed dividends via the transfer portal, as you sometimes get those kids back in the portal. In other words, HS recruiting is as much now about building relationships that may or may not pay off immediately, but could enhance portal success down the road.
With that said, only 2 other teams so far have signed more 4-star players (LSU and Texas). So I'd imagine will be filling out depth from here out, and maybe get one more surprise (though I'm not counting on it).
For what it’s worth, during his original press conference at Memorial Stadium, Coach Tosh made it a point to mention that his focus will be on high school recruiting much more so than the portal. He said the portal is of course still crucial, and his team will be highly active, but he definitely seemed to want to make it clear early on that the portal comes a distant second when compared to recruiting straight from high school, and ideally from local Bay Area high schools. This could mean we could see this next season as a rebuild and investment more in 2027 and beyond, FWIW.
I largely agree, but I think your second point is a little off for the how things in the portal currently work. There was a great article on W4C recently about how the key to success in the portal is finding good talent for the right price, which is not a foreign concept to the NFL draft and free agency process.
Dominating in high school recruiting is absolutely necessary in my mind for 3 key positions: QB, OL and DL. Finding a good QB in the portal isn't hard, it's just really expensive. If you don't have a spare 7 figures laying around, it suddenly becomes insanely hard to find a good QB, just look at our attempts to land a QB in the portal: Brown, Rogers, Finley and Jackson were all guys that we brought in on the lower end of things and none of them were even remotely starting material. Our greatest success via the portal was probably Jack Plummer, and while I know there are some Plummer truthers out there I was not a fan in the slightest.
Meanwhile our success in QBs during the portal era have all come from high school guys who we started young, Mendoza as a redshirt Freshman and JKS as a true Freshman. Failure to do so results in whatever QB hell Tennessee is in right now after failing to replace Niko, or Virginia and Stanford who had to overpay in the portal for known backup quality QBs who they are going to be forced to start.
Same goes for DL to a certain extent, but most definitely OL, nobody is building a monster OL via the portal without spending an arm and a leg, and the remaining OL left for schools with more reasonable budgets (which I think is us these days, upgraded from "destitute" under Wilcox) are typically borderline starters or project prospects.
Realistically, you can build good receiving corps, RB rooms and secondaries through the portal (which we are doing!), but it is VERY expensive to try to build lines and produce QBs, and thus high school recruiting is still a must to develop elite teams.
Well if you recruit a top QB out of high school and he ACTUALLY is good, by his second year and certainly his third year you will be paying top $$$ for him. So, either way you slice at some point you have to pay. It is now a free market. Certainly JKS is getting top $$$ right now at Cal as a portal transfer.
If you develop an OL / DL and they are actually good, you will need to pay the current market rate. There is no way around it now.
Frankly, it doesn't matter if a team developed them out of HS or plucked them from the portal, they will pay!
So, I'm not sure if Tosh's approach will be that productive. Keeping in mind that most QBs, OL and DL out of high school don't excel in college.
My point regarding HS recruiting in the portal era is that players largely do not stick around long enough to develop.
JKS was actually a portal guy….so he’s our greatest success.
What you are describing no longer exists…it sucks…it’s unfortunate…hopefully Tosh changes things, but rosters just aren’t built that way anymore. Even blue bloods now spend much of their $$$ to retain their own players.
No arguments that it is expensive nowadays to build up the trenches through the portal, but the 3* recruits that Wilcox would land were a) not ready to play and b) the oftentimes would then portal out regardless.
Ideally Tosh lands better HS players who are ready to contribute early.
I agree with your sentiment - but disagree with the feasibility of that approach when 4500+ players hop in the portal...
Development isn't the name of the game anymore though, it's just talent acquisition. NFL scouts complain about this all the time these days, they're saying the vast majority of prospects are super raw coming out of college because development just isn't happening.
JKS is a portal guy on technicality only, he does not end up at Cal without us recruiting him relentlessly out of high school.
What I'm describing is... literally the current landscape for a school like Cal. I specifically only provided examples of guys in the portal era and not before, I'm not sure what else you're looking for here.
That’s exactly the point tho - the era before the portal no longer exists. It’s completely irrelevant….so who cares, that time has passed.
I do not understand what point you are trying to make. You’re saying development is out the window in the portal era…so why does it behoove a school like Cal to invest major resources in HS recruiting when developing said prospects is no longer the name of the game anymore?
So Cal should be recruiting ready to play 4 and 5* recruits out of HS then. Great…let’s do that. Ha. No one would argue with that.
I am in no way advocating Cal disregards HS recruiting…just that it should not be the focal point of the recruiting efforts and resources.
A really hope there's some regulation coming down the road to start to limit this annual frenzy. You have to think the fans will find a way to revolt.
In my mind, I'm already planning/expecting to tune out and admit the death of my fandom in a couple years, if it continues like this. Once you've made a run at it, what's really the point after that? Knowing that if you don't tax donor base to throw millions of dollars at coaches and at kids every year, some of whom are enrolling in their 3rd, 4th, or even 5th school, your entire team, and seemingly program, can fall apart in the blink of an eye.
I hope so too. There is a lot of money going into this game, seems like it will be hard to sustain it. But, for right now, I am enjoying the rush of transactions and the build of a new team with new coaches. I just want us to win a bunch of games next season, like all of them. Is that attainable? Heck, I don't know, but I am going to go to all the home games and find out first hand, so it darn well better be. ;-)
Oh, yeah I'm def excited now for what could come in the next 1-3 years, but thinking beyond that.. I just don't see it being sustainable. But who knows what the future holds.. To use the cliche at this point, it really is the "wild west" right now.
I wonder what prime Evan Weaver would be worth in today’s portal.
#1 LB in the portal
We started strong but haven't signed notable players after that. I'm disappointed we haven't signed anyone from Oregon after their season ended.
Let me add a wrinkle to his thread. The first point has already, to some degree, been said. The second point has yet to be made.
1) It seems that HS recruiting will mainly pay off if you have 4/5* guys that can play quickly. Talented kids that don't get playing time will be in the portal after year one. Less heralded kids that you can develop might also be valuable (think Mendoza) as you might get a cheap year or two out of them before they bolt.
2) Having relationships with HS recruits may pay delayed dividends via the transfer portal, as you sometimes get those kids back in the portal. In other words, HS recruiting is as much now about building relationships that may or may not pay off immediately, but could enhance portal success down the road.
I think Tosh will be able to get HS recruits who can play immediately. So let's hope that will happen and we will take advantage of it.
With that said, only 2 other teams so far have signed more 4-star players (LSU and Texas). So I'd imagine will be filling out depth from here out, and maybe get one more surprise (though I'm not counting on it).
For what it’s worth, during his original press conference at Memorial Stadium, Coach Tosh made it a point to mention that his focus will be on high school recruiting much more so than the portal. He said the portal is of course still crucial, and his team will be highly active, but he definitely seemed to want to make it clear early on that the portal comes a distant second when compared to recruiting straight from high school, and ideally from local Bay Area high schools. This could mean we could see this next season as a rebuild and investment more in 2027 and beyond, FWIW.
That will not satisfying my instant gratification
It is a risky strategy on 2 fronts:
1. With more realignment in the future, Cal may not have the benefit of time for a rebuild; and,
2. A focus on HS recruiting is not how teams have achieved success in the transfer portal era.
I largely agree, but I think your second point is a little off for the how things in the portal currently work. There was a great article on W4C recently about how the key to success in the portal is finding good talent for the right price, which is not a foreign concept to the NFL draft and free agency process.
Dominating in high school recruiting is absolutely necessary in my mind for 3 key positions: QB, OL and DL. Finding a good QB in the portal isn't hard, it's just really expensive. If you don't have a spare 7 figures laying around, it suddenly becomes insanely hard to find a good QB, just look at our attempts to land a QB in the portal: Brown, Rogers, Finley and Jackson were all guys that we brought in on the lower end of things and none of them were even remotely starting material. Our greatest success via the portal was probably Jack Plummer, and while I know there are some Plummer truthers out there I was not a fan in the slightest.
Meanwhile our success in QBs during the portal era have all come from high school guys who we started young, Mendoza as a redshirt Freshman and JKS as a true Freshman. Failure to do so results in whatever QB hell Tennessee is in right now after failing to replace Niko, or Virginia and Stanford who had to overpay in the portal for known backup quality QBs who they are going to be forced to start.
Same goes for DL to a certain extent, but most definitely OL, nobody is building a monster OL via the portal without spending an arm and a leg, and the remaining OL left for schools with more reasonable budgets (which I think is us these days, upgraded from "destitute" under Wilcox) are typically borderline starters or project prospects.
Realistically, you can build good receiving corps, RB rooms and secondaries through the portal (which we are doing!), but it is VERY expensive to try to build lines and produce QBs, and thus high school recruiting is still a must to develop elite teams.
Well if you recruit a top QB out of high school and he ACTUALLY is good, by his second year and certainly his third year you will be paying top $$$ for him. So, either way you slice at some point you have to pay. It is now a free market. Certainly JKS is getting top $$$ right now at Cal as a portal transfer.
If you develop an OL / DL and they are actually good, you will need to pay the current market rate. There is no way around it now.
Frankly, it doesn't matter if a team developed them out of HS or plucked them from the portal, they will pay!
So, I'm not sure if Tosh's approach will be that productive. Keeping in mind that most QBs, OL and DL out of high school don't excel in college.
My point regarding HS recruiting in the portal era is that players largely do not stick around long enough to develop.
JKS was actually a portal guy….so he’s our greatest success.
What you are describing no longer exists…it sucks…it’s unfortunate…hopefully Tosh changes things, but rosters just aren’t built that way anymore. Even blue bloods now spend much of their $$$ to retain their own players.
No arguments that it is expensive nowadays to build up the trenches through the portal, but the 3* recruits that Wilcox would land were a) not ready to play and b) the oftentimes would then portal out regardless.
Ideally Tosh lands better HS players who are ready to contribute early.
I agree with your sentiment - but disagree with the feasibility of that approach when 4500+ players hop in the portal...
Development isn't the name of the game anymore though, it's just talent acquisition. NFL scouts complain about this all the time these days, they're saying the vast majority of prospects are super raw coming out of college because development just isn't happening.
JKS is a portal guy on technicality only, he does not end up at Cal without us recruiting him relentlessly out of high school.
What I'm describing is... literally the current landscape for a school like Cal. I specifically only provided examples of guys in the portal era and not before, I'm not sure what else you're looking for here.
That’s exactly the point tho - the era before the portal no longer exists. It’s completely irrelevant….so who cares, that time has passed.
I do not understand what point you are trying to make. You’re saying development is out the window in the portal era…so why does it behoove a school like Cal to invest major resources in HS recruiting when developing said prospects is no longer the name of the game anymore?
So Cal should be recruiting ready to play 4 and 5* recruits out of HS then. Great…let’s do that. Ha. No one would argue with that.
I am in no way advocating Cal disregards HS recruiting…just that it should not be the focal point of the recruiting efforts and resources.
A really hope there's some regulation coming down the road to start to limit this annual frenzy. You have to think the fans will find a way to revolt.
In my mind, I'm already planning/expecting to tune out and admit the death of my fandom in a couple years, if it continues like this. Once you've made a run at it, what's really the point after that? Knowing that if you don't tax donor base to throw millions of dollars at coaches and at kids every year, some of whom are enrolling in their 3rd, 4th, or even 5th school, your entire team, and seemingly program, can fall apart in the blink of an eye.
I hope so too. There is a lot of money going into this game, seems like it will be hard to sustain it. But, for right now, I am enjoying the rush of transactions and the build of a new team with new coaches. I just want us to win a bunch of games next season, like all of them. Is that attainable? Heck, I don't know, but I am going to go to all the home games and find out first hand, so it darn well better be. ;-)
I was already losing interest and fandom but Tosh hiring and hot start to transfer portal signings got me super excited again.
Oh, yeah I'm def excited now for what could come in the next 1-3 years, but thinking beyond that.. I just don't see it being sustainable. But who knows what the future holds.. To use the cliche at this point, it really is the "wild west" right now.
Welcome to Cal Marquis!
Can't complain about a DB with P4 experience! We'll let our coaches do their thing.
A bit of a journeyman, started at aTm, went to Louisville then Arizona. Will be interesting to observe how this stop fares for him.
I hope it goes well for both parties.
I think this one is his last year of eligibility. Hope he makes the most of it.