203 Comments
Mar 5, 2020Liked by SGBear

Somewhere in today's DBD someone (Cugel?) suggested that turnout is not as high for the 2020 Democratic primaries as their 2016 Democratic primaries. So I did a little checking by way of wikipedia.

For states that held primaries in both years turnout is very definitely up with one exception that I can find - Oklahoma has seen a drop of about 9.5% in turnout from 2016 to 2020 (335,483 in 2016 vs. 303,977 in 2020).

The highest turnout differences -

Virginia - 68.67% (785,041 vs 1,324,148)

South Carolina - 45.12% (370, 904 vs 538,259)

Tennessee - 38.52% (372,222 vs 515,619)

Texas - 37.04% (1,435,895 vs 1,967,768)

Between 10% and 20% increase -

New Hampshire - 17.96% (253,062 vs 298,523)

Vermont - 16.68% (132,256 vs 157,815)

North Carolina - 15.63% (1,142,916 vs 1,321,598)

Alabama - 13.97% (398,157 vs 453,763)

Massachusetts - 11.83% (1,220,296 vs 1,364,604)

It is worth noting that Colorado and California haven't reported complete numbers yet. In Colorado's case, it would be mixing apples and oranges - Colorado held caucuses in 2016, a primary in 2020.

California's incomplete returns suggest a huge dropoff from 2016 on the order of about 35%. There are only 10% precincts outstanding and ~2.99 million votes have been tallied so far. Compare that with about 5.17 million votes in 2016.

The total vote results vary widely, to be sure. But the increase seems to portend an enthusiasm to vote. "Enthusiasm" such as it is, may be building on the Democratic side in this election year.

Expand full comment

I think the turnout in Virginia got more publicity locally than the result of who won.

Expand full comment

I read a WaPo article that talked about Virginian's enthusiasm in beating Trump. It seems like a big driver for turnout in that state's Dem primary.

Expand full comment

My mom called me yesterday - as her primary care physician is unavailable I took her to Sutter urgent care in Berkeley. 2.5 hour wait in a tiny room filled with coughing people wearing masks. Left immediately and today she went to a neurologist, everything looks OK - could have been fibromyalgia. Voted or someone that is no longer on the ballot. If I had waited 24 hours I would have voted for Biden. Oh well.

Expand full comment

Glad Mom's OK.

Expand full comment

:( hope your mom feels better

Expand full comment

Are any of you in the Fbook group Subtle Asian Traits? Some people in the group put together a guide to COVID-19, and so far, they've translated it into Simplified and Traditional Chinese: https://docs.google.com/document/d/14Ho02N8lKuv2H7XShOTpDmeHp38xdgJAe8jNQm5HkTM/edit?fbclid=IwAR1R3FqvLdfOa_yCJVaTAuvTxLal8iffwZM7U5i7VCecxOqycbIKRAkT5UU#

Expand full comment

I've been invited by like 7 different people. And every time I click in, the discussion is super racist, so I reject and hide the invite.

Expand full comment

I am dealing with a cold that started last Friday and blew up on Sunday night. I hate this. I am getting better, so I hope to be able to go back to work tomorrow.

During the last three days I did the prep and filed my taxes. We're getting a small refund from the Feds and California. I changed our withholding last April when I realized that for 2018 I would have to pay about $1,700 to the IRS. That was an effect of the 2017 GOP Tax Bill. And my withholding remains high because of it. Bastards.

Expand full comment

Yeah, I got back the smallest tax refund I have in a while. Yay, middle class.

Expand full comment

yeah, we're paying a solid $3k more than before, mostly on the state/local tax cap.

Expand full comment

COVID 19 ON WFC

Expand full comment

Listening to Swedish stoner metal and editing documents in a vain effort to keep up with the flow of work - gross

Expand full comment

I usually listen to instrumental covers of pop songs while I work.

I'd avoided music with words because I've accidentally typed lyrics into contracts before. Hadn't considered songs in other languages! A whole new world of possibilities has just opened up. :)

Expand full comment

Alas they are “singing” in English, but it’s not the sort of thing you’d type in by accident- I have had that happen with other songs though

Expand full comment

This is a test. Howdy, all.

Expand full comment

well looky there, it worked. How are folks adjusting to the new site? I haven't been able to do more than just check it out.

Expand full comment

How do we know you're the real Newellbany???

Expand full comment

I should have changed my handle to @RealNewellbany like they do on the twitters.

Expand full comment

I never even considered the possibility of a phony Newellbany.

Expand full comment

Fauxbany, if you will

Expand full comment

holy smokes is it gonna do that pop up every time I wanna post a comment?

Expand full comment

They're working on fixing that, supposedly.

Expand full comment
author

The current cure is subscribing. And unclick email notifications

Expand full comment
Mar 4, 2020Liked by SGBear

Fire Starkey Alert

Sexy Sax Man Poster Exists, World Not Such a Bad Place

https://io9.gizmodo.com/sexy-sax-man-poster-exists-world-not-such-a-bad-place-1842070240

Expand full comment

WHAT IS THIS SORCERY

Expand full comment

Email from the bank:

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut policy interest rates by 50 basis points this morning, citing the evolving risks of COVID-19 to economic activity. This is the first time the Fed has changed policy rates between scheduled policy meetings since the 2008 financial crisis.

To us, the Fed seems to be acting in support of its previously communicated commitment to “sustain the expansion.” While this action doesn’t directly help with virus containment, it may help lessen the extent to which fears will weigh on markets. And given the lack of inflationary pressures, we think there’s relatively little harm in the Fed taking such steps.

Chairman Powell also emphasized in his press conference that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still strong. But with the overall effects of the outbreak remaining “highly uncertain,” it made sense to take preventative measures to limit any disruption to financial conditions. We wouldn’t be surprised to see more from the Fed should the situation worsen.

We continue to believe the path of the virus and realized economic consequences will be drivers of market volatility in the coming days and weeks. But we are reminded from pandemics like SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu and others that pandemics rarely leave lasting macroeconomic impacts. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and share insights with you as we have them.

Expand full comment

Fucking Banks:

The country’s biggest banks are asking federal officials for long-sought regulatory relief as part of the government’s efforts to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus, requests that experts lambasted as opportunistic and unnecessary.

The Bank Policy Institute — a lobbying group for big banks including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup — is recommending, among other things, that the Federal Reserve lower capital requirements and ease the periodic “stress tests” banks take to prove they can survive another economic crisis.

The Federal Reserve could “make changes to its bank regulations or enact promptly already planned regulatory changes that would not reduce safety, soundness or financial stability,” the group said in a note titled “Actions the Fed Could Take in Response to COVID-19” signed by Greg Baer, its chief executive; Francisco Covas, head of research; and Bill Nelson, the chief economist.

Expand full comment

Your bank emailed you about the rate cut?

Expand full comment

All companies are going to write down their next quarter expectations, it’s going to be money and productivity lost even without actual loss of life

Expand full comment

Honestly, I think this was a misguided move on the Fed's part.

Expand full comment

The biggest problem is that it significantly weakens its arsenal if a real need appears.

Expand full comment

It is. It's like pushing on a string to get it to move. The economy is experiencing a supply (chain) shock, not a demand shock. The rate cut will do nothing to ameliorate the supply shock. In this case, if you want to ameliorate the supply shock the policy should be aggressive action towards limiting and ending the COVID-19 spread.

Expand full comment

Kinda think so too, feels like bowing to pressure, but also misguided in that making credit cheaper to strengthen market results should NOT BE THE MAIN FOCUS during a pandemic

Expand full comment

It’s the main focus for re-election of the president

Expand full comment

My work is limiting travel to and from the Level 3 countries right now (China, Iran, South Korea, Italy). Some misinformed person decided to block entry to someone with a Chinese passport, even though that person has been in LA for three years and was flying here from LA.

As for all the people making their own sanitizer, I assume that means bathtub moonshine.

Expand full comment

No international travel anywhere unless approved by a direct report to the CEO, I think tomorrow we're canceling all internal meetings that involve domestic travel and more than 20 or so peeps.

Expand full comment

Oh I haven’t had the “no large gatherings” warning, yikes

Expand full comment

You're never ever going to visit the pandas, are you?

Expand full comment

All travel to Asia Pacific stopped, all other travel must be approved by c-level (so.... really not happening)

Oh the other hand, I’m getting so much done because my exec team is actually at their goddamn desks

Expand full comment

we don't work internationally, but we're having some conferences stopped. I did a site visit yesterday and man, was the airport a breeze .

Expand full comment

us too on the client events (Sorry Scootie, glad you got New Orleans) but it’s partly because all the clients have stopped travel.

Expand full comment

My trip to Lisbon was cancelled by the conference organizer. Though there may be a regional event in Europe.

Expand full comment

2/3 rubbing alcohol and 1/3 aloe gel I think

Expand full comment

Try a splash of gin

Expand full comment

I call that mouth sanitizer

Expand full comment
author

From Nextdoor.com: Berkeley vegan jogger wants carnivores to close windows when cooking

https://www.ktvu.com/news/vegan-runner-asks-neighbors-to-close-windows-when-cooking-meat-with-offensive-odor

Expand full comment

Tell me when the jogger runs by my house so I can spew the aromas of grilling chicken or beef into the neighborhood air.

Expand full comment

When I lived in Providence there were issues when Orthodox Jews objected to their neighbors having motion activated lights being active on the Sabbath. This seems more frivolous.

Expand full comment

so militant. would he/she do the same with his/her offensive vegetable cooking?

Expand full comment

I dunno there’s a long tradition of ragging on Indian food, which is mostly vegetarian, but there’s ...probably some other reasons for that

Expand full comment

@gee, what could that possibly be@

Expand full comment

Hmmmm...sarcasm font doesn't seem to work here. MODS!!!

Expand full comment

Yes? (oh wait, I don't have a mod account here . . . yet)

Expand full comment

*sings* "Good Bye Super Tuesday, Who could hang a flyer on you...."

Expand full comment
author

Notice from the Staff:

We know of the email notification issue right now. We’re in contact to see what is possible to change. There also seems to be a bug regarding scheduled posts that were working through. If you would not want to receive emails unclick email newsletter on the My Account page for the time being. Appreciate the understanding folks!

Expand full comment

Actually, as weird as it is, until the comment engine is improved so that we can more easily see and navigate toward new comments (like the Z function on CGB), then I'm actually appreciating the email notifications so I can know when someone has replied to me.

Expand full comment

Me toooooooo

Expand full comment

I've been reflexively hitting z...I'm also the guy who tries the light switch when the power is out.

Expand full comment

haha, yep

Expand full comment

it's been 3 days and I still periodically hit Z when coming back to w4c

Expand full comment

and I just did it after posting that comment.

Expand full comment

I demand to speak with the manager.

Expand full comment

Wow, start a new site and all these weirdos start showing up

Expand full comment

people all up in there using IRL names....

Expand full comment

Not used to that yet. It's weirding me out

Expand full comment

Bunch a weirdos, if you ask me.

Expand full comment
author

Can I help you?

Expand full comment

I want my money back

Expand full comment
author

Just send me your bank account number and PIN and I will deposit the funds directly into your account.

Expand full comment
Mar 4, 2020Liked by SGBear

121 010 358, account number 13425 06879, pin is 1868

Expand full comment

There’s a 50-50 chance that’s your real pin because I SEE WHAT YOU DID THERE

Expand full comment

these fries are burnt, there are no pickles and this steak tartar is raw

Expand full comment

Some re-shuffling of the deck chairs as far as positions go. One thing I'm curious to see is how the secondary performs without coach Alexander. If I recall, Daniel Scott played very well in the bowl game as Davis was out.

Expand full comment

Scott played very well as did Anusieum. Hopefully GA set the tone and the upper classmen can carry that forward.

Expand full comment

On the plus side, I am not a carrier monkey for infectious disease. At least this time. Was in Vancouver a couple weeks ago and someone at our site had gotten back from Italy and fallen ill and was in the office while I was there. Cue 2500+ people working from home, the site deep cleaned top to bottom and an eventual negative test. Yay

Expand full comment

Any K Drama recs for those stuck at home?

Expand full comment
author

uhhhhhh why did no one tag me in this. im upset at yall.

Expand full comment

yeah...it was jojo fire starkey alert for years...for things kdrama...

Expand full comment

dude, you didnt DBD enough. We k drama the shit outta this place

Expand full comment

2nd season of Kingdom will be out on the netflix in a week or 2. whoo.

Expand full comment

i've been watching itaewon class.

watched a couple of episodes for hi bye mama...could be entertaining, but i'm pretty sure that i'll be mehs after another episode or 2...

Expand full comment

yeah I watched the 1st one and was out

Expand full comment

watched holo love on the netflix...premise seemed interesting...parts are good/parts are boring...will give it a couple more episodes...

and...judging from my friend's insta...a frat bro of mine is pal-ing 'round w/ the main actress back in korea...

Expand full comment

nice! Ive watched a couple of those. Its moderately interesting

Expand full comment

Nobody Knows looks like a good serial killer one, solid first 2 eps. Park Min Young actually trying to act in When the Weather is Fine has been a pleasant surprise. A bit of a slow burn but a pure romance drama versus the usual terrible rom-coms. I like that one. Tell Me What You Saw and The Game: Towards Zero are both solidly entertaining in the police/serial killer realm. Black Dog recently finished and was absolutely brilliant, if you havent watched that one it is a must. Itaewon Class is good. The rest havent really caught my attention, there are a couple out with big names that I am meh on.

Expand full comment

guess i'll check out nobody knows and black dog.

Expand full comment

Good for you! I think by and large, the number of people infected will grow pretty quickly, though we won't know about it due to the CDCs rules about testing.

Expand full comment

But Pence said any American can be tested as long as a doctor orders it.

Expand full comment

I thought of you as I was on the plane yesterday and someone was passing the hot air around me.

Expand full comment

I'm glad you're ok!

Expand full comment

Ah.. so it wasn't you who visited the North Star Mall.

Expand full comment
author

OUR CRUMBLING DEMOCRACY

Expand full comment

Nickleback is on tour?!?!?!?!?!

Expand full comment

btw, if you are a Sanders supporter, how do you feel about this Biden coalition forming against Sanders? How do you feel about Warren not having left yet?

Expand full comment

I'm not a Sanders supporter, but I think Warren needs to stay in until Biden wraps up the nomination.

Expand full comment

I think Bernie's supporters are wrong in assuming that they'd get Warren's supporters. If she drops out and Bernie gets a lesser bump then Biden, put a fork in it.

Expand full comment

Give her a few days, or hours, for the results to sink in. She came in third in her home state.

Expand full comment

she probably is talking with other campaigns... etc.

Expand full comment

I do think she's gonna get shit for no matter what she does. If she sticks with Bernie, she'll get dragged by the party elites, if she goes to Joe, the Bernie Bros will be further enraged, if she sticks around in case there's another debate, she'll get dumped on by both sides. Same if she bows out and endorses nobody.

Expand full comment

Easily the best way out among those three options is to stick with it and not worry about getting dumped on by both sides. She's more of an adult than Sanders. And by the same token, Warren shouldn't worry about dropping and endorsing Biden. Were I in her shoes, I'd look at the Bernie Bros as nothing more than waves crashing on the rocks. The Bernie Bros are not worth the time required to pay attention.

Expand full comment

Quite the pickle.

Expand full comment
author

Super Tuesday

Expand full comment
author

"the DNC should require Biden and Sanders to choose their VP's now because I seriously don't think either of them will last 4 full years in office"

Matt Oswalt (comedian & Patton's brother) via Twitter

https://twitter.com/MattOswaltVA/status/1235286751146659846?s=20

pqtm, nervously...

Expand full comment

Dissenting view: you don't show your hand until you need to. And showing your hand before securing the nomination is showing it before you need to.

Expand full comment

yet donald is still alive...

Expand full comment

He's not wrong

Expand full comment

Bloomberg out. Endorses Biden. Not a great return on his investment. Hope he keeps spending through the general election.

Expand full comment

We won't know whether he got a return on his investment until November. The whole point of his spending is replacing Trump. He entered the race when Warren was in the lead because his polling told him that she would lose head to head to Trump and he thought the party needed a viable alternative.

It didn't turn out that way but regardless, he's built an incredible operation, especially around data. Andrew Yang said last night that Bloomberg's data operation far exceeds what the DNC has. Bloomberg has everybody on the payroll through November, and he's going to direct the whole operation to Biden.

If Biden wins, Bloomberg's investment will be a big reason why.

Expand full comment

bloomberg basically shot himself in the head with that Nevada debate performance. it would have been better for him if he had not appeared on any debates. he would probably have about 3x the delegates as what he actually ended up getting.

oh well, at least now it's a real race.

Expand full comment

Warren basically shot Bloomberg in the head in that Nevada debate.

Expand full comment

as a NJ/NYC guy who saw Bloomberg as the mayor, I thought he did such a superb job running the city. Stop and frisk - and the way it was implemented - was probably one of two stains on what was othewise a great legacy (with the mosque surveillance program being the other offense).

Expand full comment

I think he's an old, imperious billionaire with retrograde social views that he's thinly papered over, whose primary concern is the maintenance of power of the moneyed elite to which he belongs. I'm glad he supports combating climate change though.

Expand full comment

Heh,

The elites _should_ support combating climate change, just out of self-interest.

Expand full comment

The twittersphere really gave him the same treatment as it gave Hillary - they turned him into a monster. She wasn't, neither is he.

Regardless, it's time to let all that go. He isn't the nominee and he's looking to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to ensure that the person who is the nominee wins. I want that on our team.

Expand full comment

This is my impression, as well. He just got into the race too late.

Expand full comment

And seemed totally unprepared once he had to debate.

Expand full comment

Contest over.

Expand full comment

It’s amazing how quickly Biden took over. After Iowa, I thought he was done

Expand full comment

it seems Bernie's Ceiling is 35%

Expand full comment

not if you count Warren's votes

Expand full comment

Live by youth turnout, die by youth turnout.

Expand full comment

This is the big issue. They still aren't able to persuade enough people.

Some of this is Bernie himself, but I think it's mostly about who runs his campaign. Too many hard-liner types.

Expand full comment
author

Some dude made a really neat summary of how yesterday's voting went:

https://kevinlwright.github.io/SuperTuesM/

Expand full comment
author

PRO

Expand full comment

CON

Expand full comment
author

Islander's Johnny Boychuk takes skate to eye. Needs 90 stitches. Picture SFW as missed his eyeball and no visible blood. But, man, 90 stitches.

https://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/5e5f90352600000a19b602db.png?ops=scalefit_720_noupscale

Expand full comment
author

Tank? Warriors [116] - Nuggets 100: Dubs win 2nd out of last 3 games.

https://www.espn.com/nba/recap?gameId=401161555

Expand full comment
author

Still 3 behind the Cavs in the win column with 20 games to go.

Expand full comment

I'm also not sure it matters a ton which pick the Warriors get between 1-5. They're not the normal lottery team.

Expand full comment
author

I think it mostly matters in terms of trade value. I think there's a pretty high likelihood that the Warriors never end up making that pick.

Expand full comment

The potential lottery picks this year are a bunch of crap. There's a high chance that the #10 player (whoever he is) will be better than the #1 overall pick. Every potential top-5 pick has serious flaws in their games.

Expand full comment

Is LaMelo really that good?

Expand full comment
author

CAL

Expand full comment

Sirmon and DeRuyter switching roles?!

Expand full comment
author

GO BEARS!

Expand full comment
author

WGolf: Cal extends lead on final day, wins Gunrock Invitational

http://results.golfstat.com/public/leaderboards/gsnav.cfm?pg=team&tid=19572

Expand full comment
author

Spring football is back

Expand full comment

Whoo

Expand full comment
author

Roster changes:

Pretty known:

+9 new players (Mangum, E. Johnson, Roberts, Nazzal, Iosefa, Sheahan, Young, Paster, Casey)

- 4 non-graduating players (D'Shawn Hopkins, Ryan Regan, Sam Walker, Siu Fuimaono)

Apparently new info:

New positions:

Angelillo ILB --> FB (only FB on roster)

Udeogu DE/OLB --> TE

Hicks, Williams & Harutyunyan (CB --> S)

Owens (NG --> OL)

Biggest weight changes:

Deng 220 --> 240

Owens 350 --> 370!

Scott 195 --> 210

Craig 290 --> 305

Garbers 205 --> 215

Saffel 300 --> 290

Z. Johnson 290 --> 280

Expand full comment

Glad to see Deng putting it on, that kid needs all of the lbs he can get! Garbers, too! Love to see Craig getting beastier!

Expand full comment

I thought Saffel looked a little trimmer.

Expand full comment