LOS ANGELES — One day last week, on a sunny, beautiful Los Angeles afternoon, 23-year-old Alex Salvador Morales set up shop on a sidewalk near downtown, selling freshly cut pineapple, mango and watermelon in quart-sized plastic cups for $5.
Before the pandemic, fruit stands like his dotted streets on days like this, one every few blocks on the busy stretches. With millions of people staying home amid the COVID-19 pandemic, however, business was so bad that many of Salvador Morales’ fellow fruit vendors hadn’t bothered to show up.
But Salvador Morales said he couldn’t afford to stop working because his family in Guatemala counts on him to send money back home. He also needs to pay his rent. It was due last Wednesday, and he didn’t have enough to pitch in his $500 for the apartment he shares with a roommate.
Is anyone else having trouble posting comments today? I click post, the box comes up to subscribe (normal), I uncheck and try to post, and then it says SOMETHING WENT WRONG. I have to click a couple times for my comments to post, and at one point, I had to go back to writeforcalifornia.com and then click on the DBD (just refreshing the DBD was coming up blank)
Hannah Murray, who played Gilly in Game of Thrones (not that she's unattractive, just that she's less conventionally attractive than most of the actresses that they cast.)
I think I tend to have very conventional tastes when it comes to physical appeal. Oh, but I'm really not into the beards that everyone's into these days.
Apropos: I'm shaving part of my quarantine beard today. I'm think the C. Everett Koop, Lincoln, pornstache, Chester A. Arthur, and the Hulk Hogan are strong contenders for the 1-day fashion look.
One of my grad school roommates is probably one of the best people I know. She is very kind, and in a couple situations where I thought she might be more vindictive (for example, her longterm boyfriend cheating on her), she was always generous and caring.
friendly reminder in times of uncertainty and misinformation: anecdotes are not data. (good) data is carefully measured and collected information based on a range of subject-dependent factors, including, but not limited to, controlled variables, meta-analysis, and randomization
Apparently she was scared to go into work because of Covid19, used up all her PTO and has effectively been terminated for not going to work/working from home. She says she has a doctor's note (not sure what I'm supposed to do with that) and she's applying for unemployment.
I'm a little surprised gas prices haven't gone up after Trump got the Saudis and Russia to agree to cut production. At least the Concord Costco price for regular has gone down from 2.39 to 2.29. I went out and filled up because I thought for sure the prices would go up.
I think US integrated oil companies are taking a temporary cut in refining margins in favor of higher volume sales. PAD inventories (see Cushing below) are filled to the brim, which means that they want to avoid taking any more build in inventory because of expensive marginal cost-of-carry. Spring is also typically the slow-season for refineries as they take them offline for maintenance ahead of the summer driving season. Prices should rise later this month.
My sister has been getting McD as delivery even before the pandemic out of both out of nostalgia and as her hangover meal of choice. Somewhat related, I opted to go get McD for her on my last visit...and that was when the McD server asked everyone whether they believed in the "rumor" that Kobe Bryant has passed away in a helicopter crash.
TST: My cousin has flown multiple times (for work) with the helicopter pilot who was at the controls for Kobe's crash. Said he was a really nice guy 😕
Attended reef's digital memorial this morning (China time) - avi, Nick and Nam spoke - it was funny, across a large swath of different friend groups, all the stories about larry's kept returning to the same themes: Cal, teaching, yelling, eating. It was sad, but uplifting as well.
LA is requiring everyone going out to wear masks. I guess there will be a lot of people out with bandanas and stuff. Not sure where people can buy masks.
@Aaron_TheThomas: I don’t feel safe wearing a handkerchief or something else that isn’t CLEARLY a protective mask covering my face to the store because I am a Black man living in this world. I want to stay alive but I also want to stay alive.
If you are concerned that your mask has been contaminated, there are reports that you can heat-sterilize it using your oven. Note that there are risks here. You can potentially contaminate your oven if you don't sterilize properly. I don't know the material of the mask, but heat could potentially damage it.
I wonder if spraying with a low bleach/water solution and letting it dry would work. I've read that a 5-10% bleach solution sprayed on door knobs and light switches and letting it dry could help.
To make my own wipes I've been doing a 10% solution and wetting paper towels in a ziploc. I leave a few of those in the car. If I don't have regular anti-bacterial wipes, could I use these? I don't have any of the real N95 masks so I'm asking for others that might.
The thing I was reading for people that use masks is that if the virus is on the outside, and you don't wash between uses (for non-disposable), you could potentially reuse and put it on inside out. I've read you should wash your hands before and after putting it on/taking it off.
Wait, huh?? If the virus is on the outside of the mask, and you put it on inside-out, then you're putting the virus right next to your nose and mouth, aren't you?
Exactly my thought. If you can't wash an N95 mask with warm soapy water, then throw it out. It does no good to anyone after it's been used once if it has coronavirus embedded on the outside, ready to do its insidious nasty spread.
Logging in just to say that unless I see a good source on this, wearing PPE inside-out *after* you think the outside has been contaminated makes no sense to me.
Even if you're telling me the outside of the mask has some adsorptive material that would never release the ligand, then the inside should still be safer.
I'd love the see a source on this to evaluate. I'm not an expert in this field, but this sounds like some Facebook-science.
One of my wife's direct reports now has apparent CV19. However, no tests available, so she doesn't know for sure. She was really careful, but 6 days ago... some jerk at the carwash was coughing everywhere and joking how it was CV19. So my current tally is that I personally know of 10 people with presumptive CV19, two who got tested and 8 who were told not to come to the hospital and no tests available.
I believe that any leveling out of speed of infection is because testing volume is growing arithmetically, but infection growth is geometric.
same. One of our neighbors briefly had to quarantine (White House employee who might have been exposed was in the maternity ward where she works) but other than that, nothing.
the father of one of my direct reports just got hospitalized with it in NJ. 3 other family members tested positive as well. She is in Florida and is a total wreck (for this and because she has 2 kids under 7 on steroids for allergies and is by herself...while trying to home school them and work for me at the same time).
It seemed like a higher percentage of people out this morning was wearing some kind of face covering. Some just put it on as I ran past. Stopped at the CVS down the street and I was the only person in the store other than the cashier. Now that the cherry blossoms are done the streets in the area are open again.
My friend got to leave for two hours on Tuesday - and she spent her time going to get Starbucks take-away. I wonder if she's coming back to Shanghai soon.
White guy/Chinese wife wedding in Chengdu about a year ago. Only knew the groom + my friends who were part of the wedding party; was seated with the groom's family to help interpret both Chinese customs and Chinese speeches. Glad I flew out for the wedding, but I wouldn't exactly call it fun. Bachelor party and the Sunday dumpling lunch the day after were a lot more fun.
sort of. It was for a young woman my wife worked with at summer camp - I didn't know a huge proportion of the guests but enough to be social, have a few beers, shake my shimmy - not much more you can ask for, really.
I think the last wedding reception I attended was in September in Hawaii, which unfortunately was also part of the last not-great family trip, so I didn't have the best time at the wedding.
The best wedding experience (where I knew a lot of people) was for my grad school labmate. It was just full of love from everyone who was there for the couple, and I had a great time dancing with my friends.
The best wedding experience (where I didn't know a lot of people) was for one of my camp friends. I'd only met a couple of his high school friends (and once, like 15 years ago), but they welcomed me into their group for the night, so it was a fun wedding experience. Bonus wtf moment: when the priest talked about how one of the readings was "erotic" during the ceremony.
The reception and day before dinner were really good. Groom is white and she is. Vietnamese. She grew up there so it was her family. Food was incredible. We did a tour of the oil museum that went over the history and that was really interesting.
Pac-12 Networks cuts 8% of staff, reduces senior staff salaries by 10%; Larry Scott 20% cut, forced to scrape by with $4.24m/year. Earlier, Scott had forecasted a net loss for Pac-12 Networks of $15.5m.
If Biden wins I don't expect him to run for re-election. It's more of a reset, get back to some basic competence in government and let the Democrats get someone new (also much younger) ready to go in 2024.
One would think that Trump would lose some points for the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemics, but yeah it will probably be another close election (with potentially much fewer, if any, in-persaon rallies due to social distance)
Biden's personal polling has been better than Hillary's pretty much throughout and he crushed Bernie by much bigger margins. I'm not sure what evidence this sense would be based on.
The only data was the sudden and dramatic jump from being distantly behind to insurmountable lead in a matter of a couple of days, which suggests there was more than meets the eye. People in mass don't change their mind that fast. Which makes me suspicious of whether it will translate outside the core of the party.
But the "sense" is more feeling than data. I've seen no evidence that I would trust that Biden will play well enough where it matters, with swing and right-leaning voters in battleground states. How Biden polls with pure blue democrats is of no relevance.
Further, I don't have any confidence that Biden, if he does win, can control and move things forward in a cohesive manner. I had more confidence in about half the candidates than Biden.
There was a common, and incorrect, assumption that Hillary was going to be successful that I never understood because it seemed equal parts hope that she would and assumption that she would. And a general sense of dismissal of Trump, and more importantly, Trump's supporters.
I think it's going to depend on 1) can people get out the vote in swing states, and 2) can people vote in swing states. This is going to be a staggeringly dirty election, more so than usual I fear.
"I've seen no evidence that I would trust that Biden will play well enough where it matters, with swing and right-leaning voters in battleground states." -
Yeah, there's a ton of polling out there showing Biden performing well against Trump nationally and in battleground states. That's been core to his entire campaign argument. I think it's pretty thin evidence based largely on name ID and generic Obama approval rather than Biden-specific, but the evidence is there.
"based largely on name ID and generic Obama approval rather than Biden-specific," which is part of the reason I don't have a very high level of confidence at this point.
Yeah, it's all out there. Biden has been leading most of these metrics for a while. (And to be fair, Sanders has also done pretty well here, albeit in different areas. But if you had to pick one candidate who does the best, it's Biden.)
but did he say he fully supports Biden? because I think he'll have to to get his base to vote for Biden. How many Bernie supporters will vote for Biden? I can't imagine they'd vote for trump so I guess they'll either not vote or vote 3rd party.
There is really nothing in his history to suggest that he would. Despite some of his revolutionary public talk, he always gets on board to help Democrats move the ball forward.
I would be shocked and appalled if he did that. Plus, I think it'd be hard for him to get on the ballot in a lot of places; there are "sore loser" laws in a lot of states I think.
2nd favorite Indiana Jones film: the first one? So I guess you like Temple of Doom the best?
For me most of the first movies in a series are the best. Except for Aliens, and that's probably because I saw Aliens first on opening night. Then my friends and I watched Alien the next day.
This tweet is for HAG's son and Rishi: https://twitter.com/JenAshleyWright/status/1247760612941131776?s=20
why my son?
His love for Call Me Maybe
ahh.....I didn't realize that was in Call Me Maybe. Yes No 2 has a hatred for that song.
https://qz.com/1834151/taiwan-government-bans-official-use-of-zoom/
webex is your friend, relatively speaking
https://californiahealthline.org/news/postcard-from-the-edge-l-a-street-vendors-who-cant-stop-working/
LOS ANGELES — One day last week, on a sunny, beautiful Los Angeles afternoon, 23-year-old Alex Salvador Morales set up shop on a sidewalk near downtown, selling freshly cut pineapple, mango and watermelon in quart-sized plastic cups for $5.
Before the pandemic, fruit stands like his dotted streets on days like this, one every few blocks on the busy stretches. With millions of people staying home amid the COVID-19 pandemic, however, business was so bad that many of Salvador Morales’ fellow fruit vendors hadn’t bothered to show up.
But Salvador Morales said he couldn’t afford to stop working because his family in Guatemala counts on him to send money back home. He also needs to pay his rent. It was due last Wednesday, and he didn’t have enough to pitch in his $500 for the apartment he shares with a roommate.
Is anyone else having trouble posting comments today? I click post, the box comes up to subscribe (normal), I uncheck and try to post, and then it says SOMETHING WENT WRONG. I have to click a couple times for my comments to post, and at one point, I had to go back to writeforcalifornia.com and then click on the DBD (just refreshing the DBD was coming up blank)
nope. It's stayed logged in for me.
Not I
A celebrity who is perhaps not traditionally handsome/pretty, but you find quite nice looking.
Hannah Murray, who played Gilly in Game of Thrones (not that she's unattractive, just that she's less conventionally attractive than most of the actresses that they cast.)
Hannah Murray kind of reminds me of Alex Morgan in looks, which pushes her to the attractive category.
You sure you weren't responding to her character on not her looks?
I know how shallow I am
I think I tend to have very conventional tastes when it comes to physical appeal. Oh, but I'm really not into the beards that everyone's into these days.
I don't tend to be attracted to women who don't like beards. Just saying 😛
Like Scootie and TBB, I agree beards are not attractive. We need AndBears to weigh in.
I already got that out of my system with the federal shutdown beard last year
Now that everyone is supposed to wear masks, beards may become less popular.
facial hair is disgusting so this is a Fire Starkey approved opinion
I am fully anti-beard so I support this message.
my beard growing skills exist in plenty, its just a sgraggly look. Plus Dr TBB doesn't like them so I am obviously correct
No big deal, babyface cool guy
o/
\o
yes
or that he doesn't want his SO to have a beard.
Usually Catholic girls have tiny little mustache.
heh
Apropos: I'm shaving part of my quarantine beard today. I'm think the C. Everett Koop, Lincoln, pornstache, Chester A. Arthur, and the Hulk Hogan are strong contenders for the 1-day fashion look.
pics or nothing.
Hey, no personal attacks!!! 😛
Well, that's good, because everyone's been getting pretty sloppy
Excuse Me!
Chris Hemsworth
I think he's pretty traditionally handsome.
I think that's just turkey being turkey
Does Jeff Goldblum count?
[Well...Uh...ThereItIs.gif]
Life Finds A Way
Think of a friend who has a good characteristic. What makes that person so great?
One of my grad school roommates is probably one of the best people I know. She is very kind, and in a couple situations where I thought she might be more vindictive (for example, her longterm boyfriend cheating on her), she was always generous and caring.
A good movie soundtrack
blackhawk down
Dazed and Confused
The Commitments
The Nightmare Before Christmas
Jurassic Park. Top Gun.
Shows my age, but I loved the Garden State soundtrack. Fed would back me up if he were here.
I'm not a big fan of the movie, but the soundtrack was good!
Amadeus, full of Mozart's greatest hits as played by the fabulous orchestra from St Martin in the Fields in London.
O Brother, Where Art Thou
I have that soundtrack.
I think it went to the top of the country music charts that year, pretty impressive.
La Dolce Vita, Nina Rota
The Third Man, Anton Karas
Batman (the one with Michael Keaton), composed by Danny Elfman.
The whole Elfman/Burton run from Pee-Wee to Batman, great musical scores.
Second Favorite: Chicken Spaghetti
cereal: Smart Start
Financial impact of CV19
Steak-umm
✔
@steak_umm
friendly reminder in times of uncertainty and misinformation: anecdotes are not data. (good) data is carefully measured and collected information based on a range of subject-dependent factors, including, but not limited to, controlled variables, meta-analysis, and randomization
56.7K
7:02 PM - Apr 6, 2020
WSJ: One-third of renters defaulted on their April rent
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nearly-a-third-of-u-s-renters-didnt-pay-april-rent-11586340000
Well, fuck.
One of my tenants defaulted on me this morning. I guess I'm working to pay for this person's housing now.
How so? Bounced check?
Only paid a nominal amount.
Apparently she was scared to go into work because of Covid19, used up all her PTO and has effectively been terminated for not going to work/working from home. She says she has a doctor's note (not sure what I'm supposed to do with that) and she's applying for unemployment.
Yikes! (not my experience)
That's significant.
Whole liquid milk prices down about one third, but not enough marginal demand so diaries are now starting to dump fresh milk down the drain
gosh, if only there was a national entity that could take it off their hands and possibly even redistribute it
@Maybe we can start a consortium of states@
Corn prices approach 10 year lows as slowing gasoline demand cuts ethanol production
I'm a little surprised gas prices haven't gone up after Trump got the Saudis and Russia to agree to cut production. At least the Concord Costco price for regular has gone down from 2.39 to 2.29. I went out and filled up because I thought for sure the prices would go up.
Travel is so down locally that there is still a glut.
That's true as well.
I think US integrated oil companies are taking a temporary cut in refining margins in favor of higher volume sales. PAD inventories (see Cushing below) are filled to the brim, which means that they want to avoid taking any more build in inventory because of expensive marginal cost-of-carry. Spring is also typically the slow-season for refineries as they take them offline for maintenance ahead of the summer driving season. Prices should rise later this month.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-weekly-cushing-oil-inventories-1657
McDonald's March same-store sales down 22%
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/mcdonalds-global-same-store-sales-down-22percent-in-march-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html
My sister has been getting McD as delivery even before the pandemic out of both out of nostalgia and as her hangover meal of choice. Somewhat related, I opted to go get McD for her on my last visit...and that was when the McD server asked everyone whether they believed in the "rumor" that Kobe Bryant has passed away in a helicopter crash.
TST: My cousin has flown multiple times (for work) with the helicopter pilot who was at the controls for Kobe's crash. Said he was a really nice guy 😕
Panera same-store sales down 42% for week ended March 29
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/panera-bread-is-selling-groceries-as-restaurant-sales-plummet.html
Attended reef's digital memorial this morning (China time) - avi, Nick and Nam spoke - it was funny, across a large swath of different friend groups, all the stories about larry's kept returning to the same themes: Cal, teaching, yelling, eating. It was sad, but uplifting as well.
Photos
Shaaz Jung: Nat Geo photographer. Simply amazing photos.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B6vJNRTBis6/?igshid=1c6oox6ohzao2
Today in Covid-19
LA is requiring everyone going out to wear masks. I guess there will be a lot of people out with bandanas and stuff. Not sure where people can buy masks.
https://twitter.com/Aaron_TheThomas/status/1246493711032356866?s=20
@Aaron_TheThomas: I don’t feel safe wearing a handkerchief or something else that isn’t CLEARLY a protective mask covering my face to the store because I am a Black man living in this world. I want to stay alive but I also want to stay alive.
Grim chuckles.
I was lucky enough to get an N95. Now I read that the virus can live on the outside of the mask for 7 days. Welp.
If you are concerned that your mask has been contaminated, there are reports that you can heat-sterilize it using your oven. Note that there are risks here. You can potentially contaminate your oven if you don't sterilize properly. I don't know the material of the mask, but heat could potentially damage it.
https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/2020/04/03/msu-michigan-state-university-baking-masks-covid-19/5117840002/
I imagine you could also sterilize it with a wipe, but I don't know for sure.
I wonder if spraying with a low bleach/water solution and letting it dry would work. I've read that a 5-10% bleach solution sprayed on door knobs and light switches and letting it dry could help.
Don't do 5%. 10% final concentration of bleach for at least 10 minutes is the lab-safe standard.
But it's easier on the material of the masks to not totally wet it with a bleach solution, so proper disinfection with a wipe sounds preferable to me.
To make my own wipes I've been doing a 10% solution and wetting paper towels in a ziploc. I leave a few of those in the car. If I don't have regular anti-bacterial wipes, could I use these? I don't have any of the real N95 masks so I'm asking for others that might.
Wash your hands after you take it off?
The thing I was reading for people that use masks is that if the virus is on the outside, and you don't wash between uses (for non-disposable), you could potentially reuse and put it on inside out. I've read you should wash your hands before and after putting it on/taking it off.
Wait, huh?? If the virus is on the outside of the mask, and you put it on inside-out, then you're putting the virus right next to your nose and mouth, aren't you?
Exactly my thought. If you can't wash an N95 mask with warm soapy water, then throw it out. It does no good to anyone after it's been used once if it has coronavirus embedded on the outside, ready to do its insidious nasty spread.
Before you throw out an N95 mask, please just disinfect it in the oven at 158F for 30 min.
If you have a couple of masks, could you just rotate them so they're sitting untouched for 7 days?
I don't think the n95 ones can be put on inside out but I'm thinking the surgical type ones. The flat ones that go over your ears.
Logging in just to say that unless I see a good source on this, wearing PPE inside-out *after* you think the outside has been contaminated makes no sense to me.
Even if you're telling me the outside of the mask has some adsorptive material that would never release the ligand, then the inside should still be safer.
I'd love the see a source on this to evaluate. I'm not an expert in this field, but this sounds like some Facebook-science.
I think what I meant was someone reusing the face mask and accidentally using it inside out.
One of my wife's direct reports now has apparent CV19. However, no tests available, so she doesn't know for sure. She was really careful, but 6 days ago... some jerk at the carwash was coughing everywhere and joking how it was CV19. So my current tally is that I personally know of 10 people with presumptive CV19, two who got tested and 8 who were told not to come to the hospital and no tests available.
I believe that any leveling out of speed of infection is because testing volume is growing arithmetically, but infection growth is geometric.
This is so interesting. I know zero.
same. One of our neighbors briefly had to quarantine (White House employee who might have been exposed was in the maternity ward where she works) but other than that, nothing.
I know two - but neither in China. One in Portland and one in Swizterland - they both had serious, but not serious enough for hospital, cases.
the father of one of my direct reports just got hospitalized with it in NJ. 3 other family members tested positive as well. She is in Florida and is a total wreck (for this and because she has 2 kids under 7 on steroids for allergies and is by herself...while trying to home school them and work for me at the same time).
It seemed like a higher percentage of people out this morning was wearing some kind of face covering. Some just put it on as I ran past. Stopped at the CVS down the street and I was the only person in the store other than the cashier. Now that the cherry blossoms are done the streets in the area are open again.
Wuhan relaxes lock-down. Get ready for Wave #2
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/52211757
My friend got to leave for two hours on Tuesday - and she spent her time going to get Starbucks take-away. I wonder if she's coming back to Shanghai soon.
Was the last wedding reception you attended fun?
White guy/Chinese wife wedding in Chengdu about a year ago. Only knew the groom + my friends who were part of the wedding party; was seated with the groom's family to help interpret both Chinese customs and Chinese speeches. Glad I flew out for the wedding, but I wouldn't exactly call it fun. Bachelor party and the Sunday dumpling lunch the day after were a lot more fun.
My niece got married on April 1st at the Brazil bldg in Tilden. Really fun, the newlyweds walked down the aisle to Rick Astley
As in 1 week ago? How was that allowed?
April 1, 2017
sort of. It was for a young woman my wife worked with at summer camp - I didn't know a huge proportion of the guests but enough to be social, have a few beers, shake my shimmy - not much more you can ask for, really.
I think the last wedding reception I attended was in September in Hawaii, which unfortunately was also part of the last not-great family trip, so I didn't have the best time at the wedding.
The best wedding experience (where I knew a lot of people) was for my grad school labmate. It was just full of love from everyone who was there for the couple, and I had a great time dancing with my friends.
The best wedding experience (where I didn't know a lot of people) was for one of my camp friends. I'd only met a couple of his high school friends (and once, like 15 years ago), but they welcomed me into their group for the night, so it was a fun wedding experience. Bonus wtf moment: when the priest talked about how one of the readings was "erotic" during the ceremony.
Lots of fun! It was at the Terrace Room in Oakland.
"Good talk, Russ."
Yes, very much so, it was my son's
Same :)
Yes it was fun. Was in Beaumont, Tx.
Two sentences that do not go together.
The reception and day before dinner were really good. Groom is white and she is. Vietnamese. She grew up there so it was her family. Food was incredible. We did a tour of the oil museum that went over the history and that was really interesting.
Very much.
CAL
Based on a twitter comment from on of you yokels, I re-watched the insight bowl last night. Good Times! #GoBears!
Pac-12 Networks cuts 8% of staff, reduces senior staff salaries by 10%; Larry Scott 20% cut, forced to scrape by with $4.24m/year. Earlier, Scott had forecasted a net loss for Pac-12 Networks of $15.5m.
https://awfulannouncing.com/league-networks/pac-12-networks-reduce-workforce-eight-percent.html
Now he really won't be able to secure the $500 million private equity investment!
Jeff Faraudo: Interview with Justin Wilcox
https://www.si.com/college/cal/news/justin-wilcox-on-dealing-with-covid-19
OUR CRUMBLING DEMOCRACY
Trump claims Ivanka created 15 million jobs.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1247603025994227716
He must be counting tug jobs during executive time
well....he could be correct that she's hired that many people for that job. since i assume she's not doing it any longer.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/07/trump-dismantled-the-very-jobs-meant-to-stop-the-covid-19-epidemic-173347
A throughly damning article. Not that it's a surprise or anything.
Bernie Sanders drops out.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html
If Biden wins I don't expect him to run for re-election. It's more of a reset, get back to some basic competence in government and let the Democrats get someone new (also much younger) ready to go in 2024.
Why do I sense a rerun of 4 years ago? At best.
One would think that Trump would lose some points for the mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemics, but yeah it will probably be another close election (with potentially much fewer, if any, in-persaon rallies due to social distance)
Biden's personal polling has been better than Hillary's pretty much throughout and he crushed Bernie by much bigger margins. I'm not sure what evidence this sense would be based on.
The only data was the sudden and dramatic jump from being distantly behind to insurmountable lead in a matter of a couple of days, which suggests there was more than meets the eye. People in mass don't change their mind that fast. Which makes me suspicious of whether it will translate outside the core of the party.
But the "sense" is more feeling than data. I've seen no evidence that I would trust that Biden will play well enough where it matters, with swing and right-leaning voters in battleground states. How Biden polls with pure blue democrats is of no relevance.
Further, I don't have any confidence that Biden, if he does win, can control and move things forward in a cohesive manner. I had more confidence in about half the candidates than Biden.
There was a common, and incorrect, assumption that Hillary was going to be successful that I never understood because it seemed equal parts hope that she would and assumption that she would. And a general sense of dismissal of Trump, and more importantly, Trump's supporters.
I think it's going to depend on 1) can people get out the vote in swing states, and 2) can people vote in swing states. This is going to be a staggeringly dirty election, more so than usual I fear.
Biden was never distantly behind.
Never nationally, only in the first 3 states (IA, NH, NV)
And Iowa was a pretty f***ed process generally.
Yes. Hopefully we've seen the last of Iowa going first.
"I've seen no evidence that I would trust that Biden will play well enough where it matters, with swing and right-leaning voters in battleground states." -
Then you're not looking very hard.
Yeah, there's a ton of polling out there showing Biden performing well against Trump nationally and in battleground states. That's been core to his entire campaign argument. I think it's pretty thin evidence based largely on name ID and generic Obama approval rather than Biden-specific, but the evidence is there.
"based largely on name ID and generic Obama approval rather than Biden-specific," which is part of the reason I don't have a very high level of confidence at this point.
The polls exist though, and they're the only evidence we have either way about any of the candidates, and Biden has been consistently doing well.
I also don't think Biden really has a name ID advantage over Trump. And the polling doesn't change even as the Dem field narrows.
No, I'm talking about his overall results compared to fellow Dem candidates.
Yeah, it's all out there. Biden has been leading most of these metrics for a while. (And to be fair, Sanders has also done pretty well here, albeit in different areas. But if you had to pick one candidate who does the best, it's Biden.)
Biden is much much stronger with the African American community. That by itself could put him over the top in several battleground states.
but did he say he fully supports Biden? because I think he'll have to to get his base to vote for Biden. How many Bernie supporters will vote for Biden? I can't imagine they'd vote for trump so I guess they'll either not vote or vote 3rd party.
unless Bernie screws everything up and runs as an independent.
There is really nothing in his history to suggest that he would. Despite some of his revolutionary public talk, he always gets on board to help Democrats move the ball forward.
Not Going To Happen
I would be shocked and appalled if he did that. Plus, I think it'd be hard for him to get on the ballot in a lot of places; there are "sore loser" laws in a lot of states I think.
https://media.giphy.com/media/MPLpvJcsWvrkk/giphy.gif
Goldblum is Gold. https://media2.giphy.com/media/1lI48vx7jsIJW/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47d6c0f13313a624fd3f085470c1031dd0a534748b&rid=giphy.gif
Hey, that's me! (at least according to that test last week)
What test?
https://openpsychometrics.org/tests/characters/
When I took that, my top match was 80% with some old guy from Mad Men, but I haven't watched Mad Men. This was my top 15:
1. Bert Cooper (Mad Men): 80%
2. Olenna Tyrell (Game of Thrones): 73%
3. Josh Lyman (The West Wing): 71%
4. Gandalf (Lord of the Rings): 70%
5. Dr. Ian Malcolm (Jurassic Park): 70%
6. John Hammond (Jurassic Park): 70%
7. Elizabeth Bennet (Pride and Prejudice): 69%
8. C. J. Cregg (The West Wing): 68%
9. Jadzia Dax (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine): 68%
10. Bernadette Rostenkowski (The Big Bang Theory): 68%
11. Leslie Knope (Park and Recreation): 68%
12. Robert Ford (Westworld): 68%
13. Goh Peik Lin (Crazy Rich Asians): 68%
14. Horace Slughorn (Harry Potter): 67%
15. Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham (Downton Abbey): 67%
I only saved my top 5, but mine was:
1. Jadzia Dax (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine) 86%
2. Tyrion Lannister (Game of Thrones) 84%
3. Albus Dumbledore (Harry Potter) 82%
4. Jim Halpert (The Office) 81%
5. Sam Seaborn (The West Wing) 81%
Jim Halpert (The Office): 81%
Derek Shepherd (Grey's Anatomy): 81%
Tyrion Lannister (Game of Thrones): 80%
Simba (The Lion King): 80%
Roger Sterling (Mad Men): 79%
Josh Lyman (The West Wing): 77%
Bunk Moreland (The Wire): 77%
Colin Khoo (Crazy Rich Asians): 77%
Dr. Ian Malcolm (Jurassic Park): 77%
Sam Seaborn (The West Wing): 76%
Jadzia Dax (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine): 76%
Jeff Winger (Community): 76%
Robin Hood (Robin Hood): 76%
Theodore Laurence (Little Women): 76%
Jaime Lannister (Game of Thrones): 75%
I have taken this test and got Walter White's son.
I do not accept this result.
I got some character from a show I'd never seen so I didn't know if I should be upset or not
He was a decent character
I was Norman Wilson from The Wire at 86%, followed by:
Filius Flitwick (Harry Potter) 83%
Monica Hall (Silicon Valley) 82%
Varys (Game of Thrones) 81%
Robert Crawley, The Earl of Grantham (Downton) 81%
Dr. Richard Webber (Grey's Anatomy) 80% for the rest
Lester Freamon (The Wire)
Alfred Pennyworth (Batman)
Lucius Fox (The Dark Knight)
Henry Francis (Mad Men)
I am only familiar with Alfred, The Earl of Grantham and Richard Webber, and they are all fine with me so I assume I'm OK with the rest?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhYtGMpi6t8
At least you weren't Omar from The Wire. Although Stringer Bell would've been interesting.
Stringer was on my list, down in the 20s I think.
Omar & Stringer were further down the list.
..for me
Spike Spiegel was #2, Bronn was #3 for me.
Hahah, Bronn and Tyrion, no wonder we get along.
Ah yeah. I'm Jadzia Dax.
Hawt
Haha, Chandler
Department of Defense: Servicemen should make their own masks out of t-shirts and stuff.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-tells-members-make-their-own-masks-fight-coronavirus-new-guidelines-met-criticism-1496230
because either "it's ours" (Don Jr), or they're all going to Mike Gula, the fundraiser that started a company selling Covid-19 stuff.
(Jared)
ahh...yes. @they all look alike@
Jared has a chin.
Latest GOP A-B testing: "This virus horrible impact in the US is the fault of... [spins wheel] Chy-nuh apologist World Health Organization"
https://www.foxnews.com/media/sen-graham-says-no-more-money-to-the-who-calls-them-chinese-apologists
Huh. Now the director of the WHO is saying he's been the target of racist attacks from Taiwan.
I mean, the WHO *is* Chinese apologists, but it's not like the US took Taiwan's advice on COVID-19 either...
it's funny how the US government gets mad about that sort of thing only when UN organizations are showing obeisance to the wrong superpower
LA Times: Feds are confiscating medical supplies from hospitals without court orders
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-04-07/hospitals-washington-seize-coronavirus-supplies
My deeply cynical side says that there's much more to the story and Trump is making profits from the seizures.
yeah I think so too. they're being redirected to Mike Gula's new company.
in a better ordered society, people would go to jail for this. They'll probably end up getting ambassadorships instead.
this is some bullshit right here. especially when there isn't transparency on where it's going.
PRO
Marbula One
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTVYLdKqxcI
Second favorite
SECOND FAVORITE BOND MOVIE: CASINO ROYAL
Probably not the 1967 version.
That's not canon.
Second favorite
Pac-12 Bay Area school: Stanfurd
Pac-12 UC school: UCLA
Second favorite Star Wars film: A New Hope; Second favorite Indiana Jones film: the first one.
2nd favorite Indiana Jones film: the first one? So I guess you like Temple of Doom the best?
For me most of the first movies in a series are the best. Except for Aliens, and that's probably because I saw Aliens first on opening night. Then my friends and I watched Alien the next day.
Ha! No, Last Crusade, and I was going to list Galaxy Quest as my 2nd favorite Star Trek film, but it might actually be my favorite.
Galaxy Quest definitely is the best. I didn't ever like the original series movies. The reboot is much better.
Pepsi
not for me. if a place only has pepsi then I opt for water. The only Pepsi product I sometimes drink is Mountain Dew.
soccer team: Partick Thistle
city: Amsterdam
classic car: Alfa Romeo GTV6
Baseball team: Oakland Athletics
College team: Syracuse Orange
NFL team: Rams
Basketball team: Warriors
Baseball: A's
College Football: Michigan Wolverines
Color: pink
My second favorite color.... either gold or blue, possibly they're tied.
Zoo: Columbus
Mint chip is my second favorite ice cream.
Apple is my second favorite pie.
Pepperoni is my second favorite pizza.
Paris is my second favorite city.
Cherry is my second favorite tree.
Is your favorite city London?
No, San Francisco.
Chicago used to be my second favorite Midwestern city, but then Columbus grew on me, so now my ranking goes:
1) Cleveland
2) Columbus
3) Chicago