We’re in hell right now and it is a hell that we’re familiar with over the last decade of Cal football on the offensive of the ball. However, none of the teams had the bevvy of talent gathered in one place with the incredible talent of a NFL QB Arm.
We will do what we shall, suffer what we must, and face the reality of the Cal football offense.
Note: this article contains data from Sommerville/McCann regimes because it would be dishonest of me to bring in just 2 games worth of data for McCann and compare it to the rest of the nation where they also have had changes in QB/OC thus it would be unfair to give Cal the benefit of the new OC and not the rest.
We are not going anywhere well or fast
Sometimes an offense is good in one of the aspects of the game but struggle in another part of the game… Cal does everything in both aspects of the offensive game poorly.
There is something fascinating about an offense that can’t generate efficiency or explosiveness in the 2 core aspects of offensive football. Surely after spending this much on the offense we would… do better than Stanford in at least 1 of the aspects of the game. We do not. The fact that we are just as woeful in the passing as we are with the running game is depressing.
What does HuldIQ think?
Oh no. We’re still bad on their metrics (this chart includes FBS + FCS games). At least our sack % is not bad? …
When we’re moving efficiently… we’re not moving far.
The thing about the offensive success rate is what you do with it: when you’re successful how successful are you.
As discussed above Cal barely escapes the lowest spot in success rate, it is accompanied by a slew of other programs in it’s vicinity. If we zoom into the ~35% overall Success Rate we here that when Cal is gaining successful yards they do it at a lower rate and amount than any other program. Stanford and Baylor for example gain an extra yard for every successful play. While Cal languishes around the UVA/Pitt range of yards but they achieve those results more often.
The issue with Cal’s efficiency is 2 fold: it tries and fails to generate necessary line yards on the ground via the ground game. With the RBs getting tackled right around the LOS but with the overuse and injury to Adam Mohammed, injury to Carter Vargas, and RB3 level skill-set of Ashten Emory (ie. replacement level RB play) we are unable to generate anything on the ground that is worth noting as the RBs get tackled basically at the LOS.
Theoretically Cal’s passing offense should be an engine for efficiency: Jackson Broussau’s 57.8% is 9th in the nation (QBs with 50 plays or more, n=220) and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s 55.6% is 17th in the % of short passing plays as a share of drop backs. However, on these plays they only have a 71.6% (33rd lowest) and 84.8% (173rd lowest) completion percentages respectively. This is not good…
“Full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing” - Shakespear when watching the Cal offense.
Ok fine, here is a little cultural reference.
When Cal gains an explosive play, which is rare at a mind numbingly low sub 7.5% of plays in a football game, we can’t even get a lot of yards on such plays. Some could argue that low explosive-play rates are associated with teams gambling on gaining more yards per designed shot play while some teams that hit explosive plays at double Cal’s rate get fewer yards since they settle on higher probability ones (ie 20-25 yard ADOT shot plays from USC/Utah vs 30-35 ADOT shot plays Stanford/Minnesota).
The issue with Cal is that we’re trying to live in the world of Utah/USC but is getting Stanford/Minnesota efficiency… or is it that we’re trying to live in Stanford/Minnesota world and getting Utah/USC efficiency?
I would argue that as discussed earlier we’re trying to live in the USC school of completing passes fast and moving the ball not relying on anything deeper with JKS having the 169th highest deep passing rate and Broussau with the 197th. Is this due to the fact that teams do not respect the Cal passing game and thus face higher rates of deeper coverage shells? Or is it a strategy to reduce the stress on an OL?
Conclusion
We’re a painful offense to watch and it isn’t something that can be fixed with a coordinator change. It has to do with what doctrine on offense we’re trying to implement. Seems like we have decided on a doctrine of a quick passing offense where we bank on individual talent to win match-ups and a running game that was just good enough to keep us on schedule… this failed. We have built a roster, implemented scheme and coaching that cannot lead to sustained success this season.
If we win out, we will fulfill RR's expectations of a "minimum 8 win season". ESPN Power Rankings gives Cal a 1.4% chance of winning out. But wait - what about a meaningless bowl game (6-6) - ESPN gives Cal a 14.6% chance of that. This offense was unwatchable against UCLA, Syracuse, Clemson, in the first half against UNLV, and WF. The Tosh experiment was sadly a mistake, even though I bought into the hype in August... Time is running out for us to stay in the P4 (as is Furd's). so sad.
Spot on, Piotr. There is little that can be done to fix this mess given what we apparently have to work with and with a running game that is mired in key injuries to Mohammed and Vargas. The films show clearly that our OL can be overcome with constant blitzes and stunts that can't be stopped resulting in a panicked QB trying to outrun the onslaught and no complementary run game to keep the defense at least marginally honest. The fact that Cal is apparently becoming consistent in running kickoffs back to its own 15 yd line, thus giving what little offense we have a wonderful starting position deep in its own territory, would suggest something about the coaching that can't seem to say, "Let the ball go into the endzone and DO NOT attempt a runback." See, not so hard. I fear the SMU game will just provide more stats to support your essential thesis that we have no offense, even with JKS at the helm. Let us not get started on the defense, which has had some positive moments early on, and some truly awful ones as we just witnessed last week, More to come.