Evans Hall: Cal Offense is Still the Same

Wilcox keeps trying and failing to find an answer for his offensive woes

Credit: bobbys.cinema

Cal football has had 4 OCs in the Wilcox era: Baldwin, Musgrave, Spavital, and Bloesch. Of the 4, 1 was fired and 2 left for other jobs (Baldwin for HC of Cal Poly then to OC ASU, now QB Coach of the Calgary Stampede in the CFL, Spavital to OC Baylor). However, regardless of style (spread, shoot and veer, pro), personnel (8 years of recruiting classes etc) or conference we have been given roughly the same level of performance… in different flavors.

PPA Over the Years

PPA is not a stat that is adjusted by opponent quality hence the gauntlet of offenses we faced in 2023 resulted in one of the worst performances of a Wilcox defense. For 2024 we are currently performing on the 2nd best level we have had in the Wilcox era, supporting the idea that we are likely witnessing the comeback of the TAKERS era dominance on the defensive side of the ball.

From this chart we can also note that our offenses have been roughly the same, as in bad: for comaprison’s sake a 0.2 PPA per play on offense means an efficiency of 2024 Sam Houston State (kill me now). Yet only in 2021 did we go above that line… yay? Right now we’re operating at 0.16 PPA which is the bottom tier of college football teams so far.

Cal and the PPA of the rest of FBS

We can see here that, unadjusted for opponent quality, Cal has been pretty good on defense but below average on offense. I believe as the season develops we will continue to have movement and that Cal will stay on the goodside of the defense. However, the offensive side of the chart… that’s something worrying.

On a positive note: Wake and Stanford are on the bad side of both of the statistics, Syraruse boasts an offense of the same tier as Auburn, NC state has a slightly better offense but a worse defense but a bigger margin, Pitt was one of the best offenses we were able to subdue into pedestrian levels, and SMU is not distinct enough to be an outlier from the cluster of mediocrity Cal is on the edge of. The schedule will get easier.

Cal Drive Killing and Extending vs P4 Schools

The main reason, I believe, for the poor performance of the offense is the incredible number of drives we have had where we had at least 1 drive killing event happen to the offense. In this case I define drive killing as any event where the offense is set back by 10 yards or more on a given down within a drive. In a lot of cases Cal has had more than 1 of these events on a drive.

Offense feels stolid because it keeps putting itself into negative play scrips. By becoming predictable we become easy to play against forcing the players to put on the super-hero cape to move the ball down the field.

On the flitside the Cal defense has been quite good at not comitting 10+ yard penalties on given drives. I know Wilcox would rather have the number dip into the sub 5% era but being where we are it is not too bad.

Zooming into the Game, Cal Ran Nowhere

Only in the 3rd quarter did the Cal offense run the ball and did not lost PPA on a rushing play. The passing game was the only functioning element of the offense and that onlt lasted the first half of the game only to regress into irrellavance in the second half with a brief yet insignificant on average stint by Jack Endries to try to save the game.

Pitt was able to run the ball effectively enough to move the chains but failed to pass the ball with any efficacy sans the 2 passes for 1st down to whittle down the clock late in the game.

SP+-ish Data

The Cal defense put Pitt’s passing game to the sword on 1st and 3rd downs. Keeping the overall offense inert never breaking past the median on explosive plays. Cal offense on the flipside tried it’s damnest to waste the defensive performance with an especially putrid spread of statistics on running the ball.