I think this is all wrong. Fsu and Clemson are not going anywhere. Obviously the Big 12 is not a consideration. And the Big 10 and SEC don't seem to want them, certainly not at full shares. Plus we have years more of litigation.
Eventually the ACC will need to do something to improve payouts- kick out Wake Forest?
I suspect any further conference realignment is several years away, because the legal process in the FSU lawsuit will take a long time to play out and there's no reason for anyone to move until either that's resolved (and it would have to be heavily in FSU's favor) or the next media deal is up (think that's the B1G in 2030?).
Obviously Cal should be lining up other options ASAP, because we know the college sports landscape is unstable. But in the very near term it seems unlikely that anyone is moving.
2030 is certainly when I expect the next go-round. For us, our ACC share doesn't jump until 2031. Not sure how that gap year will play out but seems like it can become significant.
That would be the only way to speed this up. Though if they get a favorable finding here then it might wind up applying to EVERY conference's GOR, which would really open the floodgates. I'm pretty skeptical that they'll be able to do so.
I think the media and fans are over indexing on the demise of the PAC-12 when analyzing the FSU/ACC situation. It took a set of very unique circumstances to trigger the collapse of a PAC-12. And of the circumstances, a major one was that multiple conferences were renewing their media deals around the same time which meant their were no exit fees for Pac-12 teams and their were six full share spots up for grabs in other conferences. It is highly unlikely that anyone is going to jump from the ACC for a partial or zero share from another power conference. It is possible that FSU got a wink and a nod from someone somewhere, but more likely they pursued the lawsuit as part of a multi year process to figure out their options, if any.
With that said, I would take these media prognostications with a huge grain of salt. This kind of stuff was flying back and forth during the Pac-12 realignment saga and a lot of it was worthless. For example a lot of Big 10 presidents and ADs were on the record about how they didn't want to kill the Pac-12, and yet those same folks voted twice to do exactly that.
The biggest wild card right now is the ESPN look-in clause. While the GOR extends to 2036, apparently the ESPN media deal only goes through ~2026 and they have an option to renew. I have not seen much discussion around this topic. But it feels like if FSU can scare off ESPN from renewing, they may have a shot at killing the GOR. The lawsuit will likely clarify this, but it could drag on for a while, and the renewal date is fast approaching. So I am not really sure how this will play out.
Based on absolutely nothing, I have always suspected that FSU and Clemson would have loved to be released from the GoR but were counting on the real reason most suits are filed... pressuring the other party. I figure their short term goals were more likely to be getting the most they could out of the ESPN look-in and any associated conference adjustments. Actually nullifying the GoR/exit fees and getting into the B1G/SEC on short notice just always sounded unlikely to me... not that eyem an expurt.
FSU/Clemson to the B12 would be such a hilarious outcome that I almost hope it happens. Avi, wouldn’t another alternative be for the ACC to broker some sort of revenue sharing model that might better appease the higher value members? Though the relationship seems irreconcilable, we also know money talks. Maybe there is a merit-based solution that offers a FSU et al. a concession that also reassures enough stability to get the lower valued members to buy in.
The Big 12 going into private equity to break out FSU / Clemson, just to watch them then leave to the B1G or SEC at first chance is pure schadenfreude.
Hmm. Private equity paying off the ACC would be great for Cal's pocketbook. I'd be willing to sell Clemson and Florida State to the Big 12 if they couldn't find a loophole in the GOR. Then we pull in Washington State and Oregon State to reduce travel costs, and start working on the Big 10 for when the GOR goes away in the ACC. PE sucks because they will need a return. Don't think Big 12 will give them what they're looking for. The only possibility is a loony toons sports fan who doesn't care about cost and wants this to happen.
We doubtfully would get a cut measurable to the other members, if anything at all. And if we end up in the P2 with Wazzu and OSU for any period, we are more toast than we already are in regards to our B1G dreams. We already have issues being competitive where it matters. Relegation to the P2 would only make it more so IMO.
douslat is suggesting we get WSU and OSU to join the ACC to replace FSU and Clemson.
Regarding the money, my understanding is our reduced share only applies to Tier 1 media rights. So we might be entitled to an equal share of any exit fees. At the very least, I think we are a voting member of the conference, so SMU, Stanford and Cal should have a little bit of leverage on financial decisions moving forward.
And that brings me to another point. Maybe we should be rooting for maximum chaos? If FSU manages to kill the ESPN deal, that would likely mean a new media deal. While that deal would likely be for a lower amount of money (assuming FSU and Clemson leave) a new deal would probably require a vote, at which point Cal, Stanford and SMU could leverage for full shares. Not sure if we have enough votes to make that happen, we would only need enough to block the vote but that might require some other schools also being "No" votes for their own reasons. Anyways, food for thought.
My bad douslat for misinterpreting your OSU/Wazzu proposal. You make a good point, in the absence of FSU/Clemson, our value to the ACC goes up. Also, could lead to a whole another set of dominoes of departures. Hard to say.
Taking PE money is just making a deal with the devil. It’ll gut athletic departments and likely kill off college athletics at a number of programs in the B12 (or force them to leave the conference if the PE powers that be can push to keep only programs that will be profitable).
I honestly want to see the Big 12 do it so that nobody else does in the future. I can see it benefitting us, too.
PE doesn't care about the relevance of the Big 12, they just want their profits. So they will take a % of the media rights in perpetuity until they are paid out. I can see Utah / Arizona / Arizona State getting tired of that and coming back to us. And I truly don't see a future where FSU / Clemson stays in the Big 12 for more than a few years since what they're looking for is relevance and a fair shot at the playoffs -- which the Big 12 does not give them.
Honestly, given the new system they will have a more than fair shot at the playoffs by remaining in the ACC. Win the conference and go to the playoff, that's it. FSU fans are understandably still salty about their snub, but that is not really the issue anymore; it's the money.
And yeah, I don't see the proposed B12 deal really solving the money problem outside of the initial few years. They really want to get in to the B1G or SEC, and that goal seems a long way off.
The problem with the Big 12 is that they don't realize they've lost yet. Even a $1B cash infusion would put them at equity with the Power 2 conferences for 1 year. The T1 media rights aren't where the disparities end. How much more playoffs revenue are the Power 2 conferences going to get? They will also begin stacking March Madness credits even outside of football.
Which would leave college football fans who are in it for the joy of the game, crisp fall afternoons and the camaraderie of competition to settle in and enjoy a lower-level conference. This would be sort of like enjoying a local newspaper that survived on regional support after the Internet claimed the bigger-city dailies.
I do wish a hyper-local conference could exist within the frame (I'm thinking Sac State, Davis, Nevada, Cal Poly, Stanford, SJSU, UNLV, SDSU, OSU, WSU, etc). But this sort of thing won't work because it already doesn't. No one goes to a Cal or Stanford vs. San Jose State football game and being in the same conference wouldn't help. It didn't even work for the Pac12
I think this is all wrong. Fsu and Clemson are not going anywhere. Obviously the Big 12 is not a consideration. And the Big 10 and SEC don't seem to want them, certainly not at full shares. Plus we have years more of litigation.
Eventually the ACC will need to do something to improve payouts- kick out Wake Forest?
Omfg with this bullshit. Fuck all these people
(University of Nebraska [Big Ten] is not a member of the Association of American Universities)
Ah good catch. I believe in they're process of trying to get back in.
Also, they were at the time they were admitted to the B1G.
This is missing the sarcasm font.
"[A] potential reunion with our big Pac-4 buds"
I suspect any further conference realignment is several years away, because the legal process in the FSU lawsuit will take a long time to play out and there's no reason for anyone to move until either that's resolved (and it would have to be heavily in FSU's favor) or the next media deal is up (think that's the B1G in 2030?).
Obviously Cal should be lining up other options ASAP, because we know the college sports landscape is unstable. But in the very near term it seems unlikely that anyone is moving.
2030 is certainly when I expect the next go-round. For us, our ACC share doesn't jump until 2031. Not sure how that gap year will play out but seems like it can become significant.
If FSU and Clemson keep up the lawfare barrage, they may find a loophole in the GOR.
That would be the only way to speed this up. Though if they get a favorable finding here then it might wind up applying to EVERY conference's GOR, which would really open the floodgates. I'm pretty skeptical that they'll be able to do so.
I think the media and fans are over indexing on the demise of the PAC-12 when analyzing the FSU/ACC situation. It took a set of very unique circumstances to trigger the collapse of a PAC-12. And of the circumstances, a major one was that multiple conferences were renewing their media deals around the same time which meant their were no exit fees for Pac-12 teams and their were six full share spots up for grabs in other conferences. It is highly unlikely that anyone is going to jump from the ACC for a partial or zero share from another power conference. It is possible that FSU got a wink and a nod from someone somewhere, but more likely they pursued the lawsuit as part of a multi year process to figure out their options, if any.
With that said, I would take these media prognostications with a huge grain of salt. This kind of stuff was flying back and forth during the Pac-12 realignment saga and a lot of it was worthless. For example a lot of Big 10 presidents and ADs were on the record about how they didn't want to kill the Pac-12, and yet those same folks voted twice to do exactly that.
The biggest wild card right now is the ESPN look-in clause. While the GOR extends to 2036, apparently the ESPN media deal only goes through ~2026 and they have an option to renew. I have not seen much discussion around this topic. But it feels like if FSU can scare off ESPN from renewing, they may have a shot at killing the GOR. The lawsuit will likely clarify this, but it could drag on for a while, and the renewal date is fast approaching. So I am not really sure how this will play out.
Based on absolutely nothing, I have always suspected that FSU and Clemson would have loved to be released from the GoR but were counting on the real reason most suits are filed... pressuring the other party. I figure their short term goals were more likely to be getting the most they could out of the ESPN look-in and any associated conference adjustments. Actually nullifying the GoR/exit fees and getting into the B1G/SEC on short notice just always sounded unlikely to me... not that eyem an expurt.
FSU/Clemson to the B12 would be such a hilarious outcome that I almost hope it happens. Avi, wouldn’t another alternative be for the ACC to broker some sort of revenue sharing model that might better appease the higher value members? Though the relationship seems irreconcilable, we also know money talks. Maybe there is a merit-based solution that offers a FSU et al. a concession that also reassures enough stability to get the lower valued members to buy in.
The Big 12 going into private equity to break out FSU / Clemson, just to watch them then leave to the B1G or SEC at first chance is pure schadenfreude.
Hmm. Private equity paying off the ACC would be great for Cal's pocketbook. I'd be willing to sell Clemson and Florida State to the Big 12 if they couldn't find a loophole in the GOR. Then we pull in Washington State and Oregon State to reduce travel costs, and start working on the Big 10 for when the GOR goes away in the ACC. PE sucks because they will need a return. Don't think Big 12 will give them what they're looking for. The only possibility is a loony toons sports fan who doesn't care about cost and wants this to happen.
We doubtfully would get a cut measurable to the other members, if anything at all. And if we end up in the P2 with Wazzu and OSU for any period, we are more toast than we already are in regards to our B1G dreams. We already have issues being competitive where it matters. Relegation to the P2 would only make it more so IMO.
Aren't we eligible for equitable revenue on everything outside of T1 media?
That is correct.
douslat is suggesting we get WSU and OSU to join the ACC to replace FSU and Clemson.
Regarding the money, my understanding is our reduced share only applies to Tier 1 media rights. So we might be entitled to an equal share of any exit fees. At the very least, I think we are a voting member of the conference, so SMU, Stanford and Cal should have a little bit of leverage on financial decisions moving forward.
And that brings me to another point. Maybe we should be rooting for maximum chaos? If FSU manages to kill the ESPN deal, that would likely mean a new media deal. While that deal would likely be for a lower amount of money (assuming FSU and Clemson leave) a new deal would probably require a vote, at which point Cal, Stanford and SMU could leverage for full shares. Not sure if we have enough votes to make that happen, we would only need enough to block the vote but that might require some other schools also being "No" votes for their own reasons. Anyways, food for thought.
My bad douslat for misinterpreting your OSU/Wazzu proposal. You make a good point, in the absence of FSU/Clemson, our value to the ACC goes up. Also, could lead to a whole another set of dominoes of departures. Hard to say.
I'm thinking the same; lawsuits and B12 flirtation are leverage for a better deal with the ACC.
Taking PE money is just making a deal with the devil. It’ll gut athletic departments and likely kill off college athletics at a number of programs in the B12 (or force them to leave the conference if the PE powers that be can push to keep only programs that will be profitable).
Big-12 going to the big money equivalent of a loan shark is slightly too on the nose.
I honestly want to see the Big 12 do it so that nobody else does in the future. I can see it benefitting us, too.
PE doesn't care about the relevance of the Big 12, they just want their profits. So they will take a % of the media rights in perpetuity until they are paid out. I can see Utah / Arizona / Arizona State getting tired of that and coming back to us. And I truly don't see a future where FSU / Clemson stays in the Big 12 for more than a few years since what they're looking for is relevance and a fair shot at the playoffs -- which the Big 12 does not give them.
Honestly, given the new system they will have a more than fair shot at the playoffs by remaining in the ACC. Win the conference and go to the playoff, that's it. FSU fans are understandably still salty about their snub, but that is not really the issue anymore; it's the money.
And yeah, I don't see the proposed B12 deal really solving the money problem outside of the initial few years. They really want to get in to the B1G or SEC, and that goal seems a long way off.
The problem with the Big 12 is that they don't realize they've lost yet. Even a $1B cash infusion would put them at equity with the Power 2 conferences for 1 year. The T1 media rights aren't where the disparities end. How much more playoffs revenue are the Power 2 conferences going to get? They will also begin stacking March Madness credits even outside of football.
Which would leave college football fans who are in it for the joy of the game, crisp fall afternoons and the camaraderie of competition to settle in and enjoy a lower-level conference. This would be sort of like enjoying a local newspaper that survived on regional support after the Internet claimed the bigger-city dailies.
I do wish a hyper-local conference could exist within the frame (I'm thinking Sac State, Davis, Nevada, Cal Poly, Stanford, SJSU, UNLV, SDSU, OSU, WSU, etc). But this sort of thing won't work because it already doesn't. No one goes to a Cal or Stanford vs. San Jose State football game and being in the same conference wouldn't help. It didn't even work for the Pac12
PE or no, big time college football is never going back to the Lake Wobegon days in our lifetime.
I would subscribe to this outcome! Full circle moment!
Amen, brother Bear.