I've been collecting the conference agreements for the exiting members. Cal has not turned theirs over yet, but UCLA and Oregon have exit clauses if their is a material change in conference membership. I posted those agreements on my substack. I will post Cal's when they respond.
In terms of Cal being allowed to leave the ACC, I would imagine that the negotiated terms might be less than those that would apply to an FSU or a UNC.
The precedent would be the most important factor. If FSU had already been properly extorted, and there were no other schools trying leave (having already left, say), then I can imagine the remaining ACC schools saying "God Bless" and allowing Cal and Stanford out for less. You didn't create the problem. You helped us in our time of need as we helped you. I think other than numbers for ESPN, the main goal was to pre-create a "Magnolia League" of academically oriented schools in case the big boys left. If we're going to be Tier 2 permanently, we want some benefit (like, branding value and sanity in conference regulations affecting academic qualifications and burdens).
Thanks for this, Twist. I guess my question is why the premium schools signed the amendment at all, much less so far ahead of the original end date? Was it just a misunderstanding of where the market would go? $40 million is good change for most of the schools, and maybe even FSU etc. at the time. But the contract gives the schools no outs--not even prohibitive ones--which seems exceedingly careless given the length.
I think everything depends on the enforceability of the liquidated damages clause, which is extraordinarily punitive. I don’t know what law would govern it, but in CA it would be dicey.
I am not particularly worried about FSU or Clemson leaving. Even if they managed to pull it off, there are enough teams left in the ACC that will have no obvious home that the ACC will likely survive. And besides, both the Big10 and Big12 have filled their expansion slots so any new teams would dilute revenue share, and as we saw in this past round of realignment there is not a ton of appetite for revenue dilution.
What I am worried about is that fact that we are locked into a long term contract with the ACC on a measly media revenue share where we don't hit a full share until year 10. There is a very real risk that out travel schedule, ACC's emerging reputation as a 2nd tier power conference, our partial media share, and our lack of AD commitment result in a decline into irrelevancy. We may have struggled in the Pac-12, but the equal revenue share, relatively equal travel, and P5 status allowed us to at least keep things competitive. There is a very real risk that we decline into Rutgers level of irrelevancy in the ACC and we will not have an escape hatch.
And lets look at the best case scenario. Lets stay Cal and Stanford turn things around and end up dominating the ACC. Then what? Do we stick around in the ACC forever as the west coast black sheep of the conference? Do the other 14 east coast teams give us an easy way to sneak out of the conference in the next round of media negotiations, or do they try and lock us up, keeping exclusive control of the bay area market, knowing full well that the past decade of financial inequality has tied our hands?
My fear is not that FSU leaves, or that the ACC dissolves. My primary fear is that realignment is essentially over (minus maybe one or two more teams) and we are permanently stuck in the ACC. We are going to watch the "establishment" start elevating the BIG10 and SEC as the P2, and reclassifying/treating the ACC and B12 as G5's (or rather G7's). This is why what is happening to FSU is so important. Of all the ACC schools, FSU should be the one with enough cachet (a.k.a TV ratings) to survive this sort of chicanery.
And that is also why I was a supporter of sticking it out in the Pac-12 with OSU and WSU. If the ACC and B12 were destined to be relegated to G5 status (or G7, or whatever) regardless, than why not just stick it out with teams over on the west coast. And as a bonus, we have more control of the conference, and make sure we have an escape hatch in case the Big10, however unlikely, comes calling.
Anyways, hope I am wrong. And at the very least, whatever happens from here on out, I am looking forward to a few years of not having to think about this realignment stuff and just watch some football.
Nothing is permanent in leaguing. And certainly not our position in the ACC.
My crystal ball says the most likely scenario is that the Power 4 blows up in 7-8 years. (The SEC and BiG GORs go out ten, but watch them vote to dissolve themselves.). 30-35 real football schools will join the Trophy League for $1 bill, and everyone else will be relegated. 'Bama and Georgia will start to wonder why they are sharing their lucre with Vandy. Ditto Michigan, tOSU and OSU looking at Rutgers. FSU & Clemson and Miami finally get their wish. (To get votes to dissolve, the Trophy schools will just payoff the relegated schools.) Cal returns to the West Coast.
The NCAA just released a proposal for a new division. Someone smarter than me will need to spell out the implications. But from what I can tell, this will either result in the aforementioned super conference (it is opt-in), or it may be intended to absorb the P5/4 in its entirety.
The main implications is that University's will now be able to pay athletes directly. And it will require a University to pay minimum of $30k to at least half of the athletes. Back of the napkin means it is going to be about $5M-$10M just to qualify for the new division. Chump change for BIG10 and SEC schools, and manageable for most P4 schools, but on our meager revenue share, this could actually sink us.
Realignment isn't over. The College Football Playoff contract is up after the 2025 season, expect a lot of turmoil as the conferences jockey for positioning before a new contract is signed.
Reading the above, there doesn’t seem to be that option. Also, as much as it behooves a few to escape, it benefits the rest to keep it together. So there is not really a plausible all-in (or all-out) scenario.
As we understand it, yes. Of course, getting 2/3rd of the ACC to vote to dissolve seems wildly unlikely, particularly now that Cal/Stanford/SMU are in.
I agree that it seems unlikely that 2/3rds or more of the Schools would willingly harm themselves.
However, if FSU and UNC found an escape hatch they were willing to use, would the conditions change enough that enough others would also want to escape?
Seems a highly speculative scenario in any case. Right now, FSU appears to be mad as a wet hen.
"Nick: If you want to start writing articles speculating about Cal’s conference placement beginning in the 2037 football season, have at it. If I’m still blogging 14 years from now, my life will have taken a dark, dark turn."
Uh... I think you've been blogging for the past 15-20 years already. I'm not following how your life would take a dark, dark turn when it's already there.
"What is dead may never die!" "The Bear will not quit! The Bear will not die!"
Thank you, Twist. Good analysis. Doesn't change my view of every day being a gift and mystery. Trying to comprehend the whole is a fools errand unless you are a rare, rare individual. Trying to predict the future is the same. Yet this analysis is very well done and helpful. Go Bears today and forever, as far as I know.
This is how I've been thinking about it too. There is a lot of bloviating and hot air about such-and-such schools wanting to leave the ACC, but no one has actually provided an explanation for how any school will do it without paying a prohibitively expensive exit fee (one that would far dwarf the money they could make in another conference).
I think the reason for that is that there isn't any other way.
I commented the same in a different thread above but $120M is not nearly as prohibitive as it was 10 years ago, for a school like FSU. (see SMU who just raised $200M to fund their selves for the next decade). Unless I'm missing something, FSU is gone as soon as they get the opportunity, which is dependent on how content each of the B1G and SEC are in their little game of duopoly.
IMHO, right, now, making our team ever more robust and well-supported in the Cal Legends NIL would be the most meaningful contributions we could make, right now.
Newsflash: We’re in danger of losing some talent, not to mention being unable to offer new transfers much of anything. The crisis is real.
Your statue is inspired and accents one the great moments in Cal sports history. Yet, Cal football is, as you know, in the middle of an existential crisis, as Avi has said. If football stops and our historic and protected stadium becomes a for-rent venue, over time, the statue would lose its meaning and relevance. Few talk about USF football, though they used to have it. Few talk about the University of Pacific’s football program, although the stadium is still there, last time I checked.
Cal football is at a crossroads. We either step up and put our money where our heart is. Or watch our program, The Play or not, fade away like the soldiers the stadium memorializes.
We’re in a two-minute drill kind of moment.
Do or die, Bears! 🐻
PS- I have not been to a twist party, “the swim” and more freestyle modes were my contemporaries.
PPS- May I expect a bill from you, as well, Esquire?
I've been collecting the conference agreements for the exiting members. Cal has not turned theirs over yet, but UCLA and Oregon have exit clauses if their is a material change in conference membership. I posted those agreements on my substack. I will post Cal's when they respond.
Wake grad here.
In terms of Cal being allowed to leave the ACC, I would imagine that the negotiated terms might be less than those that would apply to an FSU or a UNC.
The precedent would be the most important factor. If FSU had already been properly extorted, and there were no other schools trying leave (having already left, say), then I can imagine the remaining ACC schools saying "God Bless" and allowing Cal and Stanford out for less. You didn't create the problem. You helped us in our time of need as we helped you. I think other than numbers for ESPN, the main goal was to pre-create a "Magnolia League" of academically oriented schools in case the big boys left. If we're going to be Tier 2 permanently, we want some benefit (like, branding value and sanity in conference regulations affecting academic qualifications and burdens).
That's my take.
To paraphrase words of Joseph Stalin, “Contacts [promises] are like pie crust, made to be broken.” That's why God invented so many attorneys.
great analysis. thank you!
this explains a lot of what I heard, but you know tweets ... just the sound bites
Thanks for this, Twist. I guess my question is why the premium schools signed the amendment at all, much less so far ahead of the original end date? Was it just a misunderstanding of where the market would go? $40 million is good change for most of the schools, and maybe even FSU etc. at the time. But the contract gives the schools no outs--not even prohibitive ones--which seems exceedingly careless given the length.
So the ACC owns my soul too? Huh.
I think everything depends on the enforceability of the liquidated damages clause, which is extraordinarily punitive. I don’t know what law would govern it, but in CA it would be dicey.
I am not particularly worried about FSU or Clemson leaving. Even if they managed to pull it off, there are enough teams left in the ACC that will have no obvious home that the ACC will likely survive. And besides, both the Big10 and Big12 have filled their expansion slots so any new teams would dilute revenue share, and as we saw in this past round of realignment there is not a ton of appetite for revenue dilution.
What I am worried about is that fact that we are locked into a long term contract with the ACC on a measly media revenue share where we don't hit a full share until year 10. There is a very real risk that out travel schedule, ACC's emerging reputation as a 2nd tier power conference, our partial media share, and our lack of AD commitment result in a decline into irrelevancy. We may have struggled in the Pac-12, but the equal revenue share, relatively equal travel, and P5 status allowed us to at least keep things competitive. There is a very real risk that we decline into Rutgers level of irrelevancy in the ACC and we will not have an escape hatch.
And lets look at the best case scenario. Lets stay Cal and Stanford turn things around and end up dominating the ACC. Then what? Do we stick around in the ACC forever as the west coast black sheep of the conference? Do the other 14 east coast teams give us an easy way to sneak out of the conference in the next round of media negotiations, or do they try and lock us up, keeping exclusive control of the bay area market, knowing full well that the past decade of financial inequality has tied our hands?
My fear is not that FSU leaves, or that the ACC dissolves. My primary fear is that realignment is essentially over (minus maybe one or two more teams) and we are permanently stuck in the ACC. We are going to watch the "establishment" start elevating the BIG10 and SEC as the P2, and reclassifying/treating the ACC and B12 as G5's (or rather G7's). This is why what is happening to FSU is so important. Of all the ACC schools, FSU should be the one with enough cachet (a.k.a TV ratings) to survive this sort of chicanery.
And that is also why I was a supporter of sticking it out in the Pac-12 with OSU and WSU. If the ACC and B12 were destined to be relegated to G5 status (or G7, or whatever) regardless, than why not just stick it out with teams over on the west coast. And as a bonus, we have more control of the conference, and make sure we have an escape hatch in case the Big10, however unlikely, comes calling.
Anyways, hope I am wrong. And at the very least, whatever happens from here on out, I am looking forward to a few years of not having to think about this realignment stuff and just watch some football.
Nothing is permanent in leaguing. And certainly not our position in the ACC.
My crystal ball says the most likely scenario is that the Power 4 blows up in 7-8 years. (The SEC and BiG GORs go out ten, but watch them vote to dissolve themselves.). 30-35 real football schools will join the Trophy League for $1 bill, and everyone else will be relegated. 'Bama and Georgia will start to wonder why they are sharing their lucre with Vandy. Ditto Michigan, tOSU and OSU looking at Rutgers. FSU & Clemson and Miami finally get their wish. (To get votes to dissolve, the Trophy schools will just payoff the relegated schools.) Cal returns to the West Coast.
The NCAA just released a proposal for a new division. Someone smarter than me will need to spell out the implications. But from what I can tell, this will either result in the aforementioned super conference (it is opt-in), or it may be intended to absorb the P5/4 in its entirety.
The main implications is that University's will now be able to pay athletes directly. And it will require a University to pay minimum of $30k to at least half of the athletes. Back of the napkin means it is going to be about $5M-$10M just to qualify for the new division. Chump change for BIG10 and SEC schools, and manageable for most P4 schools, but on our meager revenue share, this could actually sink us.
Realignment isn't over. The College Football Playoff contract is up after the 2025 season, expect a lot of turmoil as the conferences jockey for positioning before a new contract is signed.
This insightful article is the reason I subscribe.
Serious question: what is Cal football's greatest tailgate and how do I get an invite? :-D
Follow the smell. You'll know it when you smell it.
The short answer is follow Twist on Twitter - he announces the details each week during football season
Thank you Prof. Kingsfield and Mr. Hart.
What happens if the member institutions of the ACC votes to dissolve the ACC? In that case, do the GOR suddenly disperse like a fart in the wind?
Reading the above, there doesn’t seem to be that option. Also, as much as it behooves a few to escape, it benefits the rest to keep it together. So there is not really a plausible all-in (or all-out) scenario.
As we understand it, yes. Of course, getting 2/3rd of the ACC to vote to dissolve seems wildly unlikely, particularly now that Cal/Stanford/SMU are in.
I think if FOX told us we were getting into the B1G so that they could grab FSU, they would have our votes TBH.
I agree that it seems unlikely that 2/3rds or more of the Schools would willingly harm themselves.
However, if FSU and UNC found an escape hatch they were willing to use, would the conditions change enough that enough others would also want to escape?
Seems a highly speculative scenario in any case. Right now, FSU appears to be mad as a wet hen.
"Nick: If you want to start writing articles speculating about Cal’s conference placement beginning in the 2037 football season, have at it. If I’m still blogging 14 years from now, my life will have taken a dark, dark turn."
Uh... I think you've been blogging for the past 15-20 years already. I'm not following how your life would take a dark, dark turn when it's already there.
"What is dead may never die!" "The Bear will not quit! The Bear will not die!"
I have become what I dread!
Thank you, Twist. Good analysis. Doesn't change my view of every day being a gift and mystery. Trying to comprehend the whole is a fools errand unless you are a rare, rare individual. Trying to predict the future is the same. Yet this analysis is very well done and helpful. Go Bears today and forever, as far as I know.
Go bears today or... until the GOR termination in 2036, or 2037 :D
This is how I've been thinking about it too. There is a lot of bloviating and hot air about such-and-such schools wanting to leave the ACC, but no one has actually provided an explanation for how any school will do it without paying a prohibitively expensive exit fee (one that would far dwarf the money they could make in another conference).
I think the reason for that is that there isn't any other way.
I commented the same in a different thread above but $120M is not nearly as prohibitive as it was 10 years ago, for a school like FSU. (see SMU who just raised $200M to fund their selves for the next decade). Unless I'm missing something, FSU is gone as soon as they get the opportunity, which is dependent on how content each of the B1G and SEC are in their little game of duopoly.
Scratch that. I just read the part that says ""regardless of whether such member institution remains a member during the entirety of the term.."
That's a bitch of an unsatisfactory situation for them.
For how many hours will you be billing us, Twist?
Pro bono. Or “Friends and family discount.”
Nice. Like most visits with an attorney, I am still wondering “What happened?”
Bob,
IMHO, right, now, making our team ever more robust and well-supported in the Cal Legends NIL would be the most meaningful contributions we could make, right now.
Newsflash: We’re in danger of losing some talent, not to mention being unable to offer new transfers much of anything. The crisis is real.
Your statue is inspired and accents one the great moments in Cal sports history. Yet, Cal football is, as you know, in the middle of an existential crisis, as Avi has said. If football stops and our historic and protected stadium becomes a for-rent venue, over time, the statue would lose its meaning and relevance. Few talk about USF football, though they used to have it. Few talk about the University of Pacific’s football program, although the stadium is still there, last time I checked.
Cal football is at a crossroads. We either step up and put our money where our heart is. Or watch our program, The Play or not, fade away like the soldiers the stadium memorializes.
We’re in a two-minute drill kind of moment.
Do or die, Bears! 🐻
PS- I have not been to a twist party, “the swim” and more freestyle modes were my contemporaries.
PPS- May I expect a bill from you, as well, Esquire?
No, I, knowing that you, too, are an attorney, thought you, too, might bill all or any of us. LOL.
Good luck with the Starkey.