I will only add that no program that has ever wanted to leave a conference to date has ever failed to do so.
As far as ESPN goes, it is not their decision to make. If they decide next February to renew the ACC agreement for another nine years in an attempt to stymie FSU and then a court sides with either them or Clemson and the only money makers for ESPN leave, then where does that leave ESPN? With a billion dollar mistake. You think that ESPN is going to do that? I don’t.
I love to read the analysis of Twistnhook. He makes me feel intelligent. It’s a pleasure reading each work and telling myself that I understand it. All the while I marvel at the various pathways these schools are coming up with to get out of the ACC. Where do they see greener pastures?
Greener pastures in the SEC or the B!G where they will go from a dominant team to a middling team. But get more $ and, as they may hope, improve from there. Steel sharpens steel, I guess.
Middling team in the B1G? Really? In an 18 team league, if that’s what it is, you are saying that FSU would be somewhere between 7th and 11th roughly. Really? Care to name those teams ahead of them? I would be interested in seeing that list. FSU has three NC’s in the modern era (1980 on) in a conference where only about three other teams have ever won even one. FSU was 13-1 last season and is projected to make the 12 team playoffs this year. Let’s see that list.
Welp. TOSU and Michigan come to mind. But there are more variables for the B!G, such as climate. I would wish FSU the best of luck and be happy to be wrong, but, this year, FSU will probably win out, again, in the ACC and I doubt their end results would be as good in the B!G. I'd love to see how them beat USC, which gives obnoxious pride a whole new meaning. A slap down from a fellow public school, like FSU, would be a joy to watch.
I just don't see the logic of paying out extraordinary penalties and/or legal fees that may never be recouped with the pay differential in the B!G.
Many of the most knowledgeable people think that the final number will be around $250m, which is still a hefty sum. That would be $25m annually over a decade. Then compare that with the payout differential, $10m alone for just the playoffs, and it starts to come into focus.
But other factors play an important role as well. Today’s top high school players want to play in a P2. You cannot underestimate the importance of that. FSU has missed out on a couple of 5*s for exactly that reason. It is getting increasingly difficult to recruit against P2 programs. To remain among the elite, FSU has to get into a P2. No one argues otherwise.
Further, after FSU gets into the B1G, the BTAA will generate tens of millions more per year in research revenue. After remaining a sleepy run-of-the-mill state university for its existence, it recently woke up and now has very lofty expectations. The current BoT, president and AD are new and high achievers in their own right. Academically, FSU has surged to #53, tied with Minnesota and ahead of, in order, Michigan State, Penn State, Indiana, Iowa, Oregon and Nebraska. And they are quickly catching up to Maryland. Being a member of the BTAA is part of their design for the future. These goals are very realistic as Florida is now the 3rd largest state and fairly wealthy while many other, formerly great, states are static or going backwards. Catching up and passing them has been underway for years now and isn’t going to slow down. Florida has more and more money to spend while other states have less and less.
FSU has its best days ahead. Thanks for joining the conversation.
Welp. Be careful that the academics don't choke out your athletics. Michigan seems to maintain those different elements in balance, but, let's face it, Harvard and Yale are no threat of a D1 National Championship, so that would seem the trend. IMHO, the academic reputation is a beauty contest with what some may consider questionable criteria (e.g. sheer number of books in school libraries). Our "sister" school UCLA has increased its reputation over the decades, but how UCLA and any other school do so is variable. If one considers the number of Nobel Laureates associated with a university, then you will see that UCLA is not even close to Cal in reputation. But then, over the same period of time, our money sports, like football and basketball, have mostly been middling, notwithstanding some great moments. "Great moments" such as when Jeff Tedford was our football coach. The Academics decided to pillory our program with even fewer academic exceptions for incoming athletes, because the APR for Tedford was so low. This lowering of the academic exceptions was as though our school was sanctioning/punishing our own athletics. So, on our campus, the academics, it would seem, have the upper hand and reign over athletics with a PE-hating fist. Honestly, I'll assert that the "academics" are largely responsible for Cal's general decline from greatness that our football program experienced from way back in the Pappy Waldorf days (1950s). Beware the shift in priorities as you make your deals.
I appreciate your math, but I have heard that the payout would be closer to half a billion. If not, then, I suppose your math may be right. I, myself, can't really argue this point. It's a rabbit hole I am keeping at arm's length. In any case, we are talking extraordinary money. Something not mentioned and I am not sure how plausible, but, especially with FSU and Clemson in the mix, the chances remain to negotiate a new contract with ESPN, especially given the brand and market they would lose should these strong programs leave.
Now, many of my fellow Cal Bears will disagree, but I will say the quiet part out loud. I, personally, perceive that ESPN, being a Disney media, is suffering a decline of viewership and probably sees the ACC as one of the last bargains around. The ESPN decline, IMHO, may be, in part, related to what I will call the Bud Light Effect, where Bud Light and the parent company suffered a documented decline because they miscalculated their consumer base's politics or commitment to social justice. LOL. I suppose that Fox has benefitted from being perceived as an "alternative media" and I will call this The Coors Light Effect, where, now, Coors Light sales have boomed in contrast to Bud Light sales. All would seem a zeitgeist and chock full of variables, including politics. Fox may lose some of their gains over the next decade and their financing of the B!G may falter. I don't know, but I think Fox is riding a wave, for now, and who knows for how long.
FYI- Shocking fact. I would estimate that somewhere around 35%+ of Cal alumni are actually conservative, such as myself. With another 40%+ in the moderate range of politics. The sweeping generalizations about Berkeley and California politics need clarification. There are issues, but there is still a "red" voice in our "Blue State." I cannot help but feel these perceptions of a polarized California contribute to some people's prejudices towards Cal (The University of California). Fox’s perception of Northern California politics is an elephant in the room made visible by Joe Buck’s incessant snide digs and innuendo when the Giants were in the World Series.
“Other factors” as you mention are, too, variable. Yes, many recruits want into a P2 program, but this also means FSU will be in direct competition with existing P2s. Let’s say you, somehow, snag a 5* with the new edge of being a P2, how will the rest of your program fair with the remaining NIL funds and new pro-pay? Give that that our “amateur” athletes are now, virtually or literally, semi-pro, how long before NCAA implements salary caps? How long before there is a player’s union? There are a slew of variables coming, like a mud slide, towards NCAA athletics. You move from the known quantities of the ACC and you may invite your own internal chaos. Just a thought. And, did I miss something, or wasn’t FSU’s 2024 recruitment class ranked 12th? 7th in Transfer Portal Rankings? And 11th overall? On any given Saturday any Top Twenty-five team could beat another. Just sayin,’ again.
“FSU has it’s (sic) best days ahead.”
Maybe.
But maybe only if they consider all factors as they weigh their decision to bolt.
And I wish the Noles the best.
Honestly, we, the Cal Bears, are just happy to be here and know we have our work cut out for us.
Many of the points you make are very cogent but FSU has been competing against the Big Boys for decades and they managed. No longer. In the blink of an eye, CFB has exploded and the money involved is almost too great to fathom. It is literally life or death now for any program outside of the P2. You get into one or you slowly fade away. Within a few years, no program outside of a P2 will ever win a natty. College football is more NFL than amateur. It takes cubic yards of money to compete and that goes for facilities as well. FSU is spending over $300m to renovate their stadium. And that renovation consists of totally demolishing all of the interior and building new stands with individual seats, no more bleacher benches. It will reduce capacity by 8,000 +/- but will give a more prime experience, oh, and by the way, those ticket prices are doubling. It’s not a college football game anymore, it’s an “experience”. Of course, all the decades-long season ticket holders whose seats have simply disappeared in the downsizing are just collateral damage.
And, next to the stadium, they are building a $138m football-only Taj Mahal, touted as the most advanced in the country, oh, and five star hotel lavish. That is the cost of competing in 2024.
But, as I just sit here an ocean away, it all seems distantly amusing. I follow it out of being an alumni who, decades ago, went to a number of those games and look back with fond memory. I still follow the football team with interest but feel like I am witnessing a new, strange world evolving that I don’t understand.
Agree with this. The Miami and FSU boards are convinced FSU is out soon. I don't see it. And don't see why ESPN would facilitate it.
I will only add that no program that has ever wanted to leave a conference to date has ever failed to do so.
As far as ESPN goes, it is not their decision to make. If they decide next February to renew the ACC agreement for another nine years in an attempt to stymie FSU and then a court sides with either them or Clemson and the only money makers for ESPN leave, then where does that leave ESPN? With a billion dollar mistake. You think that ESPN is going to do that? I don’t.
ESPN will definitely not facilitate their leaving. ESPN owns their rights and is interested in holding onto them.
I love to read the analysis of Twistnhook. He makes me feel intelligent. It’s a pleasure reading each work and telling myself that I understand it. All the while I marvel at the various pathways these schools are coming up with to get out of the ACC. Where do they see greener pastures?
Thank you for your kind words
Great to see you back in the posts, Mrs. Madsen!
Greener pastures in the SEC or the B!G where they will go from a dominant team to a middling team. But get more $ and, as they may hope, improve from there. Steel sharpens steel, I guess.
Middling team in the B1G? Really? In an 18 team league, if that’s what it is, you are saying that FSU would be somewhere between 7th and 11th roughly. Really? Care to name those teams ahead of them? I would be interested in seeing that list. FSU has three NC’s in the modern era (1980 on) in a conference where only about three other teams have ever won even one. FSU was 13-1 last season and is projected to make the 12 team playoffs this year. Let’s see that list.
Welp. TOSU and Michigan come to mind. But there are more variables for the B!G, such as climate. I would wish FSU the best of luck and be happy to be wrong, but, this year, FSU will probably win out, again, in the ACC and I doubt their end results would be as good in the B!G. I'd love to see how them beat USC, which gives obnoxious pride a whole new meaning. A slap down from a fellow public school, like FSU, would be a joy to watch.
I just don't see the logic of paying out extraordinary penalties and/or legal fees that may never be recouped with the pay differential in the B!G.
Many of the most knowledgeable people think that the final number will be around $250m, which is still a hefty sum. That would be $25m annually over a decade. Then compare that with the payout differential, $10m alone for just the playoffs, and it starts to come into focus.
But other factors play an important role as well. Today’s top high school players want to play in a P2. You cannot underestimate the importance of that. FSU has missed out on a couple of 5*s for exactly that reason. It is getting increasingly difficult to recruit against P2 programs. To remain among the elite, FSU has to get into a P2. No one argues otherwise.
Further, after FSU gets into the B1G, the BTAA will generate tens of millions more per year in research revenue. After remaining a sleepy run-of-the-mill state university for its existence, it recently woke up and now has very lofty expectations. The current BoT, president and AD are new and high achievers in their own right. Academically, FSU has surged to #53, tied with Minnesota and ahead of, in order, Michigan State, Penn State, Indiana, Iowa, Oregon and Nebraska. And they are quickly catching up to Maryland. Being a member of the BTAA is part of their design for the future. These goals are very realistic as Florida is now the 3rd largest state and fairly wealthy while many other, formerly great, states are static or going backwards. Catching up and passing them has been underway for years now and isn’t going to slow down. Florida has more and more money to spend while other states have less and less.
FSU has its best days ahead. Thanks for joining the conversation.
Welp. Be careful that the academics don't choke out your athletics. Michigan seems to maintain those different elements in balance, but, let's face it, Harvard and Yale are no threat of a D1 National Championship, so that would seem the trend. IMHO, the academic reputation is a beauty contest with what some may consider questionable criteria (e.g. sheer number of books in school libraries). Our "sister" school UCLA has increased its reputation over the decades, but how UCLA and any other school do so is variable. If one considers the number of Nobel Laureates associated with a university, then you will see that UCLA is not even close to Cal in reputation. But then, over the same period of time, our money sports, like football and basketball, have mostly been middling, notwithstanding some great moments. "Great moments" such as when Jeff Tedford was our football coach. The Academics decided to pillory our program with even fewer academic exceptions for incoming athletes, because the APR for Tedford was so low. This lowering of the academic exceptions was as though our school was sanctioning/punishing our own athletics. So, on our campus, the academics, it would seem, have the upper hand and reign over athletics with a PE-hating fist. Honestly, I'll assert that the "academics" are largely responsible for Cal's general decline from greatness that our football program experienced from way back in the Pappy Waldorf days (1950s). Beware the shift in priorities as you make your deals.
I appreciate your math, but I have heard that the payout would be closer to half a billion. If not, then, I suppose your math may be right. I, myself, can't really argue this point. It's a rabbit hole I am keeping at arm's length. In any case, we are talking extraordinary money. Something not mentioned and I am not sure how plausible, but, especially with FSU and Clemson in the mix, the chances remain to negotiate a new contract with ESPN, especially given the brand and market they would lose should these strong programs leave.
Now, many of my fellow Cal Bears will disagree, but I will say the quiet part out loud. I, personally, perceive that ESPN, being a Disney media, is suffering a decline of viewership and probably sees the ACC as one of the last bargains around. The ESPN decline, IMHO, may be, in part, related to what I will call the Bud Light Effect, where Bud Light and the parent company suffered a documented decline because they miscalculated their consumer base's politics or commitment to social justice. LOL. I suppose that Fox has benefitted from being perceived as an "alternative media" and I will call this The Coors Light Effect, where, now, Coors Light sales have boomed in contrast to Bud Light sales. All would seem a zeitgeist and chock full of variables, including politics. Fox may lose some of their gains over the next decade and their financing of the B!G may falter. I don't know, but I think Fox is riding a wave, for now, and who knows for how long.
FYI- Shocking fact. I would estimate that somewhere around 35%+ of Cal alumni are actually conservative, such as myself. With another 40%+ in the moderate range of politics. The sweeping generalizations about Berkeley and California politics need clarification. There are issues, but there is still a "red" voice in our "Blue State." I cannot help but feel these perceptions of a polarized California contribute to some people's prejudices towards Cal (The University of California). Fox’s perception of Northern California politics is an elephant in the room made visible by Joe Buck’s incessant snide digs and innuendo when the Giants were in the World Series.
“Other factors” as you mention are, too, variable. Yes, many recruits want into a P2 program, but this also means FSU will be in direct competition with existing P2s. Let’s say you, somehow, snag a 5* with the new edge of being a P2, how will the rest of your program fair with the remaining NIL funds and new pro-pay? Give that that our “amateur” athletes are now, virtually or literally, semi-pro, how long before NCAA implements salary caps? How long before there is a player’s union? There are a slew of variables coming, like a mud slide, towards NCAA athletics. You move from the known quantities of the ACC and you may invite your own internal chaos. Just a thought. And, did I miss something, or wasn’t FSU’s 2024 recruitment class ranked 12th? 7th in Transfer Portal Rankings? And 11th overall? On any given Saturday any Top Twenty-five team could beat another. Just sayin,’ again.
“FSU has it’s (sic) best days ahead.”
Maybe.
But maybe only if they consider all factors as they weigh their decision to bolt.
And I wish the Noles the best.
Honestly, we, the Cal Bears, are just happy to be here and know we have our work cut out for us.
Don’t sic me you pompous dweeb. LOL
Many of the points you make are very cogent but FSU has been competing against the Big Boys for decades and they managed. No longer. In the blink of an eye, CFB has exploded and the money involved is almost too great to fathom. It is literally life or death now for any program outside of the P2. You get into one or you slowly fade away. Within a few years, no program outside of a P2 will ever win a natty. College football is more NFL than amateur. It takes cubic yards of money to compete and that goes for facilities as well. FSU is spending over $300m to renovate their stadium. And that renovation consists of totally demolishing all of the interior and building new stands with individual seats, no more bleacher benches. It will reduce capacity by 8,000 +/- but will give a more prime experience, oh, and by the way, those ticket prices are doubling. It’s not a college football game anymore, it’s an “experience”. Of course, all the decades-long season ticket holders whose seats have simply disappeared in the downsizing are just collateral damage.
And, next to the stadium, they are building a $138m football-only Taj Mahal, touted as the most advanced in the country, oh, and five star hotel lavish. That is the cost of competing in 2024.
But, as I just sit here an ocean away, it all seems distantly amusing. I follow it out of being an alumni who, decades ago, went to a number of those games and look back with fond memory. I still follow the football team with interest but feel like I am witnessing a new, strange world evolving that I don’t understand.