Photo Courtesy of UVA Athletics
Virginia was a stunning surprise last season, going 10-2 under Head Coach Tony Elliot and earning the chance to play for an ACC title in Charlotte. A key factor in that ascent was Defensive Coordinator John Rudzinski’s group, which played very well throughout the season. He has an amazing background that is quite appropriate for this Veteran’s Day weekend. He was a linebacker for Air Force before serving as an officer for several years. He returned to his alma mater and climbed the coaching ranks before taking command of an Air Force Falcons defense that was transformed under his tenure to place among the best in school history. In 2022, he made the jump to P4 ball and has run things for Tony Elliot ever since.
The Hoos ranked at the top of the conference and the nation across defensive metrics such as scoring defense and pass rush success during the 2025 season. Rudzinski returned for his 5th season in charge of the defense and kept several key starters. In an ACC that has not exactly been a gauntlet over the past few seasons, a reasonable observer would think Virginia would be a safe bet as a contender in 2026.
Yet the Hoos enter the 11th month of the year fighting not for a lofty place amongst the commanding heights of college football but for simple bowl eligibility. They were blown out by Wake Forest and Florida State while falling again to the same Duke team that denied them a playoff spot last season. In large part, this is due to a defense that has slid down towards the bottom of the P4 among most defensive categories. They allow around 370 yards per game and puzzlingly cannot generate a pass rush in the same galaxy as last season, despite having a similar quality of personnel.
One explanation is missed tackles, which Virginia has struggled to crack down on. In their blowout loss against the Noles, Tony Elliot’s team missed almost 30 tackles. Additionally, Virginia’s secondary has struggled in one-on-one coverage despite bringing in solid defensive backs in the portal. Devastating injuries have certainly cost the Hoos at key positions, such as DB Omillio Agard being out for the season. Several returners have also failed to match anything close to last year’s production.
That being said, Virginia does excel in a few areas. First is limiting opponents' pass completion percentage, in which they rank 3rd in the nation at just 59%. They also rank respectably in passing yards allowed, scoring in the top third of the FBS at 193 yards per game.
Despite having a relatively weak rushing defense, Virginia should be able to stifle a battered Cal RB room and quickly make the Bears’ offense what it has been for much of the last several seasons: one-dimensional. On paper, this is the type of secondary that would struggle in coverage against the likes of Chase Hendricks and Ian Strong, and if the game is close or Virginia trails late, that is overwhelmingly likely to be the reason why. That being said, Cal has simply been unable to handle defensive adjustments all season, and it would be a reasonable bet that a seasoned Virginia staff will be able to make the kind of gameplan alterations that paralyzed the Bears against SMU and NC State in the respective second halves.
In terms of specific personnel that Cal fans should be aware of, first and foremost is DE Matthew Fobbs White, who has a team-high 5 sacks. Of particular interest here is that he averages almost 10 yards lost per sack, meaning that his individual effort is altering the course of entire drives. In the secondary, senior safety Brandyn Hillman is the kind of disruptive playmaker that can cause Cal a lot of headaches.
At a meta level, opposing defenses have discovered an indefensible Achilles heel in this Cal team that has consistently rendered the offense inert. They have taken advantage of the lack of sophistication and experience in coaching to make schematic and tactical adjustments that the coaching staff in Berkeley cannot respond to. Even if Virginia somehow gets torched in the early stages of the game, it is fair to doubt that their halftime adjustments will be something the Bears can find success against. The answer to that question will almost certainly decide whether Cal bounces out of bowl eligibility in early November or breathes an iota of life into the season.