This is disappointment that has been played out repeatedly over the last 6+ decades.
We (alums and fans) are being managed. The bottom line is that the institutional culture at Cal does not want a winning program. They simply want to pay the bills.
As long as Shaw stays on the farm, then we are going to suffer! He is a great coach and more importantly, he hires great coaches to keep his teams competitive, focused and disciplined. They rarely beat themselves (which is something that we seem to find a way to do almost every year). Face it; Cal Football is cursed!
CalBear91: You aren't kidding! We are missing the 'Root more than we thought we would. The tackling was absolutely atrocious! Can you imagine what the 'Root is going to do with the Oregon defense as soon as everyone is healthy? Football gods pray for us. Things are going to get ugly.
FPI isn't super accurate early, but heading into this week, it said our win chance at TCU was 11.2%. The only less likely win is Oregon at 9.8%. UW is 3rd at 16.2%, then all 3 CA schools (25.6-27.2%). Everything else is 52%+
I predicted a 35-27 win, and if we could kick an extra point, and not allow an end of the first half TD in :20 seconds, I would have been correct.
That said, I think we'll be okay. Washington is awful. The rest of the conference is a bunch of toss up games, and I saw sparks of an offense. Take the 7-5
Only Cal could find a way for the offense to actually play good enough to win only for the special teams and coaches to f it all up. Just par for the course for us and that we have been spoiled with God like linebacker play the last few years.
Plus guys who actually tackle the ball carrier. Allowing the run up the gut for a closing half TD was a dagger. As was losing Deng early. That hurt a ton.
Obviously different sports, but watching the giants and cal are night and day. One team is far exceeding their talent level due to cutting edge game theory and coaching. The other….
There's a lot to be frustrated about with this game. Also the injury bug is biting yet again and the LB rotation got hit hard - one of the things that killed us on defense.
But we were 11.5 point underdogs with a +340 money line. We lost by 2. Six of the next seven games are somewhere between sure wins and well within reach (not gonna be delusional about UO), followed by 3 rivalry games including mediocre Stanford. It's a tough loss but the season goes on...
If the game had been in Berkeley, I think we would have won. In particular the defense would probably have been less ragged in the second half, both because most teams are a little sharper at home and because it would have been a lot cooler.
If I'm an opposing head coach at this point of the season I know this about WIlcox: His ST suck and they aren't getting better. I attack them and pressure them. I know that his is aggressive on both Defensive play calls and offensive play calls and thus he is predictable and I can call plays that will blow up his play calling. Looking back, not taking a field goal with 4th and 1 call early in the game was a YUGE mistake that came back to haunt us. Between that and a blown PAT we went for 2 too many times and failed. We even took a point off the board to go for two from the 5. Uggghhhh!! That ending sequence of the 1st half where we went for the killshot on the long pass that turned into an INT and then the called blitz where Patterson called the run that scored a touchdown are all aggressive playcalls based on emotion and at the wrong time. And we got burned every fucking single time. Sometime taking the points is better. Sometimes playing base or prevent is better. Just sayin...
I was shocked he didn’t kick the FG and take the PAT. Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive minded coach who likes low scoring games, therefore you think he would take any all points early in a game.
Hey, Chancer said I got zero questions right, but I got one: "How much will the Cal offense score in this game?" I picked 22-30, and that was correct, because 6 of the Cal points were scored by the Defense!
I know a lot of us wouldn't mind seeing Wilcox get canned, but do you really trust this AD to hire a competent replacement? Look at our basketball program and who he hired. I have big doubts about Wilcox, but I could see it getting much worse under a new coach...
Winning record is now all but flushed. Indeed, a 6-6 record and a minor bowl game looks remote at best. Where are five conference wins going to come from? Colorado just took no. 5 Texas AM to the mat. So Cal's head coach is hugely likely to have a losing record in his fourth and fifth seasons. Didn't Gilbertson get fired for less than that? Should be interesting to watch....not the team, I mean. But rather how the Cal administration handles this.
The context was much different during Gilby's tenure. He replaced a Snyder, so expectations were greater for the program. More, the university and athletic department were in far better financial shape (remember we were also experiencing success with the bball program, filling the Oakland Arena and had started to getting post-season money in both football and basketball). And we had an AD who was empowered to be a little more aggressive. The university and athletic department today are in the red by a hell of a lot and we are still in a pandemic that is now nearly two years going. Knowlton is a bean counter--nothing more, nothing less. I don't see Wilcox getting moved for wins and losses this season, however disappointing our record will be, because I think there's so much uncertainty about what a new normal looks like for attendance and giving in this context. I'm also not at all convinced turning the page would give ourselves the best chance. Given Knowlton hiring of Fox, I think there's a lot to be fearful about putting this hiring decision in his hands and our budget would likely be even more limited this time around. While these losses have been frustrating to say the least, our recruiting academics have been solid. I feel like good/not great success is a possibility under Wilcox still, but he clearly needs better help around him to get there IMO.
Yes, these have been coach inflicted losses, but we could easily be 2-0 and not the reverse. I'm grasping here, but it feels like these lapses in judgement and strategy are correctable.
Washington, Furd, Wazzu, OSU, and Arizona all look very beatable, and we get Colorado at home. We could win 5 of those, or 4 of those and steal one from Oregon, UCLA, or USC.
Heartbreak? NO. Not on your life.
This is disappointment that has been played out repeatedly over the last 6+ decades.
We (alums and fans) are being managed. The bottom line is that the institutional culture at Cal does not want a winning program. They simply want to pay the bills.
Your move.
Of course stanfurd comes out looking great against SC.
As long as Shaw stays on the farm, then we are going to suffer! He is a great coach and more importantly, he hires great coaches to keep his teams competitive, focused and disciplined. They rarely beat themselves (which is something that we seem to find a way to do almost every year). Face it; Cal Football is cursed!
And just like that stanfurd gets a pick six. We are about to go 0-3 against our California rivals this year.
SC looks like shit though. We might beat them.
Cmon now. 17 years say otherwise.
They are probably saying the same thing, looking at Cal
Five touchdowns and 32 points. That's the game and why we lost. Seeing our D give up that many points gave me flashbacks of Dykes...Yikes.
CalBear91: You aren't kidding! We are missing the 'Root more than we thought we would. The tackling was absolutely atrocious! Can you imagine what the 'Root is going to do with the Oregon defense as soon as everyone is healthy? Football gods pray for us. Things are going to get ugly.
Our D also scored 6 points
FPI isn't super accurate early, but heading into this week, it said our win chance at TCU was 11.2%. The only less likely win is Oregon at 9.8%. UW is 3rd at 16.2%, then all 3 CA schools (25.6-27.2%). Everything else is 52%+
Anything that doesn't have UCLA well above UW and Furd is weighting last year too heavily.
UCLA (25th) is way above Washington (50) and Furd (73)
I predicted a 35-27 win, and if we could kick an extra point, and not allow an end of the first half TD in :20 seconds, I would have been correct.
That said, I think we'll be okay. Washington is awful. The rest of the conference is a bunch of toss up games, and I saw sparks of an offense. Take the 7-5
Only Cal could find a way for the offense to actually play good enough to win only for the special teams and coaches to f it all up. Just par for the course for us and that we have been spoiled with God like linebacker play the last few years.
Been watching Cal football for too long to expect anything different. Honestly, the goal should be above .500 and a bowl game.
It makes me wonder how on Earth Tedford did it. Even then it was only for a few years.
Having the greatest QB of all time probably played a role. Let’s go find another!
And an absolute stable of stud running backs. And a defense.
And DeSean to throw to, and to have returning punts…
Plus guys who actually tackle the ball carrier. Allowing the run up the gut for a closing half TD was a dagger. As was losing Deng early. That hurt a ton.
We had stud DL and LB those days. And DBs too
Tedford recruited amazing because he wasn't paying any attention to academics.
But Wilcox has built so much depth with his OKGs…
People don’t believe me when I say Rodgers was the best college QB I’ve ever seen
You monster
Cal football is Sisyphean. We are eternally damned to roll the boulder up the hill only to see it roll back down. Repeat
Uughhh
Glad I am not the only one who thinks the coaches lost this one with poor game theory.
Obviously different sports, but watching the giants and cal are night and day. One team is far exceeding their talent level due to cutting edge game theory and coaching. The other….
There's a lot to be frustrated about with this game. Also the injury bug is biting yet again and the LB rotation got hit hard - one of the things that killed us on defense.
But we were 11.5 point underdogs with a +340 money line. We lost by 2. Six of the next seven games are somewhere between sure wins and well within reach (not gonna be delusional about UO), followed by 3 rivalry games including mediocre Stanford. It's a tough loss but the season goes on...
If the game had been in Berkeley, I think we would have won. In particular the defense would probably have been less ragged in the second half, both because most teams are a little sharper at home and because it would have been a lot cooler.
I still think we have the potential to finish 7-5 with a winning conference record. Hell, 6-6 would mean 5-4 in conference
One thing we haven’t seen from a Wilcox team - how they respond to a start like this.
Every year, it’s been “Still undefeated!” -> “PAC-12 still in play” -> “Let’s get a better bowl”. Something to unite the players around.
Now, what does Wilcox do here? Can you convince a team they’re conference-championship worthy when you’re 0-2?
I think you tell the team we lost 2 winnable games to top 25 teams.
Yep it seems obvious but will he? We don’t know. He’s never been a head coach in this situation before
He needs to figure it out because if he loses the team it can get ugly real fast.
No one went into that year thinking we’d go 1-11
We didn't lose that many games !! lol
2001? Yeah, I agree. People forget that Cal and it’s fans had a decent expectations for 2001 before it Holmoe and that team completely collapsed.
It will be difficult when the players know they didn't lose that game, but poor coaching decisions did...
If I'm an opposing head coach at this point of the season I know this about WIlcox: His ST suck and they aren't getting better. I attack them and pressure them. I know that his is aggressive on both Defensive play calls and offensive play calls and thus he is predictable and I can call plays that will blow up his play calling. Looking back, not taking a field goal with 4th and 1 call early in the game was a YUGE mistake that came back to haunt us. Between that and a blown PAT we went for 2 too many times and failed. We even took a point off the board to go for two from the 5. Uggghhhh!! That ending sequence of the 1st half where we went for the killshot on the long pass that turned into an INT and then the called blitz where Patterson called the run that scored a touchdown are all aggressive playcalls based on emotion and at the wrong time. And we got burned every fucking single time. Sometime taking the points is better. Sometimes playing base or prevent is better. Just sayin...
Those two 3rd and shorts where we went deep and got nothing only to punt on 4th were real lost opportunities.
I was shocked he didn’t kick the FG and take the PAT. Wilcox is supposed to be a defensive minded coach who likes low scoring games, therefore you think he would take any all points early in a game.
If I recall, no stats wise thinking, he'd take the FG in those situations of earlier years in those situations more often or not.
Yeah and I’m all for being aggressive and going for the TD but first drive of the game, take the points and see how the game plays out.
Hey, Chancer said I got zero questions right, but I got one: "How much will the Cal offense score in this game?" I picked 22-30, and that was correct, because 6 of the Cal points were scored by the Defense!
I know a lot of us wouldn't mind seeing Wilcox get canned, but do you really trust this AD to hire a competent replacement? Look at our basketball program and who he hired. I have big doubts about Wilcox, but I could see it getting much worse under a new coach...
5 years of known losing in the Pac 12 versus the unknown. I’ll take the unknown at this point.
Fair enough. All I'm saying is the unknown could turn out to be Kevin Sumlin.
To follow the Wilcox is Holmoe 2.0 analogy, the unknown could be Jeff Tedford.
BINGO!
Winning record is now all but flushed. Indeed, a 6-6 record and a minor bowl game looks remote at best. Where are five conference wins going to come from? Colorado just took no. 5 Texas AM to the mat. So Cal's head coach is hugely likely to have a losing record in his fourth and fifth seasons. Didn't Gilbertson get fired for less than that? Should be interesting to watch....not the team, I mean. But rather how the Cal administration handles this.
The context was much different during Gilby's tenure. He replaced a Snyder, so expectations were greater for the program. More, the university and athletic department were in far better financial shape (remember we were also experiencing success with the bball program, filling the Oakland Arena and had started to getting post-season money in both football and basketball). And we had an AD who was empowered to be a little more aggressive. The university and athletic department today are in the red by a hell of a lot and we are still in a pandemic that is now nearly two years going. Knowlton is a bean counter--nothing more, nothing less. I don't see Wilcox getting moved for wins and losses this season, however disappointing our record will be, because I think there's so much uncertainty about what a new normal looks like for attendance and giving in this context. I'm also not at all convinced turning the page would give ourselves the best chance. Given Knowlton hiring of Fox, I think there's a lot to be fearful about putting this hiring decision in his hands and our budget would likely be even more limited this time around. While these losses have been frustrating to say the least, our recruiting academics have been solid. I feel like good/not great success is a possibility under Wilcox still, but he clearly needs better help around him to get there IMO.
Yes, these have been coach inflicted losses, but we could easily be 2-0 and not the reverse. I'm grasping here, but it feels like these lapses in judgement and strategy are correctable.
Washington, Furd, Wazzu, OSU, and Arizona all look very beatable, and we get Colorado at home. We could win 5 of those, or 4 of those and steal one from Oregon, UCLA, or USC.
Remember, Wilcox isn’t Knoltons guy. He’ll be on a short leash.
Provided Knowlton doesn’t take a job elsewhere...