Louisville Football 2025: Defensive Preview
How Cal matches up against the No. 14 Cardinals’ defense this weekend
The California Golden Bears are looking to bounce back after losing back-to-back games against the state of Virginia’s ACC squads, with a double-OT loss in Blacksburg to VT and a 21-31 loss to No. 15 Virginia (now No. 11).
Cal looks to No. 14 Louisville next on the schedule for their next opportunity to get over the 5-wins-hump and qualify for a bowl game in the 2025 college football season, but this hump in the road is a very… VERY steep one.
The Louisville Cardinals are helmed by head coach Jeff Brohm, who is in his 3rd season with the Cardinals after a 6-year professional playing career and extensive coaching background, which included head coaching jobs at Purdue and Western Kentucky. Leading the defense in a 4-2-5 / 4-3 scheme is DC Ron English, a communications graduate from the University of California, Berkeley, class of 1991, along with co-DC Mark Hagen, who is in his 3rd year with the Cardinals. Both defensive coordinators were with coach Brohm at Purdue as his DCs.
Defense in 2024:
64th in Total Defense, allowing 368.7 YPG on 236.2 Passing YPG & 132.5 Rushing YPG
Allowed an average of 11.67 YDS/Completion and 3.71 YDS/Rush
30th in sacks across FBS with 34
Defense in 2025
Holding opponents to 21.3 PPG (27th) and 299.1 YPG (13th)
Opponents have only been able to average 181 Passing Yards/Game (19th) and 118.1 Rushing Yards/Game (26th)
11th in all of FBS in Total Defense
Provisional Starters
DE: Wesley Bailey, Clev Lubin
DL: Jordan Guerad, Rene Konga
LB: Kalib Perry, T.J. Quinn,
STAR: Antonio Watts
CB: Jabari Mack, Tayon Holloway
S: D’Angelo Hutchinson, JoJo Evans Jr. (OR Corey Gordon Jr.)
Players to Watch
Linebacker T.J. Quinn leads the Cardinals’ defense with 59 total tackles this season, while Clev Lubin and Wesley Bailey each have 4.0 sacks on the season. At the same time, California’s offensive line has allowed Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to be sacked 22 times for a loss of 174 yards this season.
The flexibility behind Ron English and Mark Hagen’s dual-scheme on defense has enabled Antonio Watts to pick up 3 INT in the secondary (15th overall in FBS). Cal’s attempts at last-minute heroics with deep passes to make up for the dropped shorter ones are going to be a weakness against a defense that has 12 interceptions in 8 games.
Cal’s rushing offense also ranks 136th overall out of 136 FBS teams, with the Golden Bears averaging only 66.8 rushing yards per game. In contrast, Louisville ranks 26th overall in rushing defense behind the constant stops from its defensive line, anchored by Clev Lubin (34 TOT) and Wesley Bailey (31 TOT).
How Does Cal Win This Game?
Louisville is 7-1 coming into this game with a 4-1 conference record. Their only defeat this season came against then-No. 24 Virginia, in a 27-30 OT home loss in front of 50,000 fans. Louisville is in the top 15 for the newly released CFP rankings, while California has not won a game since North Carolina fumbled at the goal line.
I do not get into betting or odds, but Louisville is a -20.5 favorite to win over Cal. Cal ranks 85th in PPG while allowing 27.9 PPG (82nd overall in FBS). With Louisville only giving up an average of 21.3 points per game, Cal is likely to struggle to keep up, but I do not see it being a 20-point blowout… I hope.
The Cardinals are going to be without Isaac Brown, the nation’s leading rusher in yards per carry, which opens the door for the Golden Bears to exploit a weakened rushing game for the Louisville offense. Cal’s offensive line will need to pick up the most amount of weight they have had to bear all season in this matchup against the Cardinals, as the Cal offense that allows 2.6 sacks per game is going to be pressured nonstop by a Cardinal defense that averages 1.9 sacks per game and forces an average of 13.7 incompletions per game.
At least Cade is listed as probable so if he’s back Cal will have some hope of at least occasionally slowing Louisville down. But this is looking like such a miss match that you end up wishing these players didn’t have to travel all the way to Kentucky to have their collective ass handed to them followed by a long flight home. Cal will be 5-5 by late Saturday evening.
This will be Justin Wilcox’s 46th conference game as Travers Family Head Football Coach of the California Golden Bears, and in none of the previous 45 has his team played an all-around complete game good enough to win tomorrow in the shadows of the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs….let’s see how it goes….