Louisville Football 2025: Offensive Preview

Cal faces long odds in the first-ever matchup between these two teams.

Louisville is currently 7-1 and very much alive for the ACC Championship. Vegas currently has them at +325 odds to win the ACC, just behind Georgia Tech and Duke (+300) and ahead of Virginia (+375). They’re led by head coach Jeff Brohm, who has a history of big wins over AP Top 5 teams, mostly at Purdue: #2 OSU in 2018 (49-20), #2 Iowa (24-7) and #3 MSU (40-29) in 2021, and finally #2 Miami (24-21) in 2025 with Louisville. They upset #2 Miami in Miami just a week after losing an overtime thriller to Virginia. All this to say that Louisville is clearly overqualified for Saturday’s matchup.

Louisville fans

Louisville has a ton of talent on offense, which will get to in a bit. For some reason though, it just doesn’t feel like a dominant team that could finish the season 10-2 or 11-1. This guy is not enthused:

He looks sad because this time could be better spent posting selfies from his Ford F-450 on Facebook

One thing to note that has been concerning me as I watched Louisville this season: their turf. There has been a number of turf-related injuries at Louisville, and my biggest concern for Cal in this matchup is actually injury more than just losing.

Let’s take a look at the positional breakdowns.

Quarterback

Louisville loves former Pac-12 quarterbacks, which means I’ve seen as many of their quarterbacks’ previous games as probably anyone. In 2023, Louisville made the ACC’s championship game with former Cal QB Jack Plummer. In 2024, Louisville was led by Oregon transfer QB Tyler Shough (a QB I also thought showed a lot of promise, and who is currently starting for the New Orleans Saints). This year, that honor falls to USC transfer QB Miller Moss (another former Cal target as a recruit, back under former OC Bill Musgrave— the same guy who recruited some unheralded QB prospect named, I think, “Fernando Mendoza V”):

I used to think USC’s Miller Moss was the evil version of Fernando Mendoza. But Moss left USC, which shows that there is a little good in everyone.

Moss landed on Louisville’s radar in a big way when he started in place of QB Caleb Williams, who opted out of the 2023 Holiday Bowl against Louisville, when he threw for 372 yards and 6 TDs against that Jack Plummer-led squad. That game earned Moss the starting QB role for USC, and although he had a strong start to the 2024 season, his tendency for back-breaking/game-losing turnovers led to his eventual benching at (and subsequent transfer from) USC.

Moss is hoping to recapture the magic of the first half of his 2024 season under Jeff Brohm’s QB-friendly system. Moss was initially praised for his quick release and his quick processing speed when reading a defense, but his ability to manipulate safeties and make anticipation throws later turned to forcing throws into closed windows for game-breaking turnovers.

Although Moss has a quick release, he has modest-to-decent arm strength, sometimes forcing his receivers to adjust to his deep throws, limiting their ability to gain yards after the catch on explosive plays:

QB Miller Moss steps up in the pocket and fires down the seam to WR Kris Hughes open for 33 yards

Here his receiver has to adjust to an underthrow, which ends up being a dangerous play:

QB Miller Moss launches it deep for TE Jaleel Skinner but just a bit underthrown and S Christian Charles drops the INT

Moss does show a nice ability to zip in throws on short to intermediate distances, particularly across the middle of the field:

QB Miller Moss zips in a throw to WR Chris Bell for 14 yards

Moss is a mobile pocket passer who is not going to light up a defense with his legs, but still possesses enough mobility to make plays with his feet when given the opportunity:

QB Miller Moss escapes the pocket for a 9 yard TD

Although he can make plays with his feet, he’s not always making the correct read when doing so, as he sometimes doesn’t see the open receiver when doing so:

QB Miller Moss can’t find anyone open but sees green grass in front of him to scramble for the 8 yard TD (WR Chris Bell was open)

Moss can also sometimes be slow to pull the trigger on throws, which leads to him hanging onto the ball too long (as well as issues with ball security, as he holds the ball low when navigating traffic in the pocket):

QB Miller Moss hangs onto the ball way too long and eats the 15 yard sack

One of the biggest issues I’ve seen with Miller Moss this year is his tendency to play “hero ball” in close games, where makes poor decisions in close games by forcing throws he shouldn’t (instead of throwing it away or taking a sack):

QB Miller Moss hero ball - under pressure as the pocket collapses, a very poor decision to throw it as he’s being sacked straight to LB Kam Robinson the 42 yard pick-6 TD

It’s not clear to me if he’s trying to throw this one away and underthrows it, or if he was really trying to connect with his tight end here, but his internal clock has to be faster than this when throwing out of the endzone:

QB Miller Moss hero ball again - probably wants to throw it away but has to avoid intentional grounding and nearly throws an INT straight to OLB Mitchell Melton

And again, in the same exact game, instead of throwing it away or grounding it at the feet of his checkdown, he makes another incredibly dangerous throw as he’s being sacked:

QB Miller Moss hero ball again - under pressure and again makes a terrible decision to throw it for a near INT

These were the sort of decisions that led to his benching at USC. To his credit, Moss did play better in the only other two close games Louisville had later on in the season (e.g. the win at Miami, although Moss did throw a couple of near interceptions, it was Carson Beck throwing essentially 5 interceptions that made the difference in that game).

Although Moss usually shows good footwork even when the pocket breaks down, he sometimes just misses on easy throws anyway:

QB Miller Moss air mails the short swing pass to WR Caullin Lacy

And here the inaccurate throw results in a pick-6:

QB Miller Moss throws too high on the short throw for WR TreyShun Hurry and the ball is tipped and deflected for the INT and pick-6 TD

While Moss can buy time in the pocket with his legs, he’s not particularly accurate throwing across his body on his throw on the run:

QB Miller Moss under pressure for an inaccurate throw on the run

Although Moss’s processing speed and ability to read a defense had been praised in the past, it was a consistent issue this season where Moss often made the wrong decision, or couldn’t see the open receiver despite hanging around in the pocket forever (although fortunate to have an offensive line that can hold for that long). I was less impressed with Moss’s quick decisions:

QB Miller Moss makes a poor read and the throw is nearly intercepted as CB Elijah Culp jumps the route but drops the should-be INT

Another thing to note is that in 3rd and short and 4th and short situations, Louisville will often sub in redshirt freshman QB Deuce Adams to run the RPO and generally run it himself:

QB Deuce Adams in to run the RPO in short yardage situations for the 3rd down conversion

I can see why Louisville took a chance on the benched USC quarterback, but I don’t think Moss has shown sufficient growth from the issues that plagued him last season. He’s done well with the game in-control (as it likely will be Saturday), but he’s liable for a turnover or two if the game is close.

Running back

This section was originally going to be all about Louisville’s star running back, Isaac Brown, but he suffered an injury last week against Virginia Tech and will reportedly be “out for a while.”

Prior to his injury, Brown was having an absolute breakout season. He still leads the FBS in rush yards per carry with 8.7, and his 782 rush yards this season is good for 2nd in the ACC (which is also impressive given the way Louisville shares the load among its RBs). Brown’s career 7.6 rush/yards per carry is a Louisville all-time high, above some other guy named Lamar Jackson who sits in 2nd with 6.3. Suffice to say, Brown can run.

Isaac Brown’s usual backup is Duke Watson, who has been battling injuries of his own this year, although Louisville is hopeful to have Watson back for the Cal game. Watson had a strong season himself last year, running for 597 yards on just 67 carries (for an eye-popping 8.9 yards/carry). Watson has the prototypical NFL size and strength to be an every down back, but showed plenty of explosiveness last year as well:

RB Duke Watson breaks free for a 68 yard TD (2024)

Watson hasn’t played a ton of snaps this year so there are limited clips I can pull from, but Watson is a well-rounded back, showing off good pass protection, runs, and receiving out of the backfield. Here’s his current longest run of the season:

RB Duke Watson picks up 15 yards on the option play

And here Watson shows off some impressive receiving skills, as he looks more WR than RB coming out of the backfield here:

RB Duke Watson makes a nice catch on the wheel route despite the coverage for the 30 yard TD

With Isaac Brown out and Duke Watson potentially limited by injury, Louisville became the Keyjuan Brown show last week (no relation to Isaac). Keyjuan Brown’s game is pretty similar to Isaac Brown, where he has a smaller frame, but is still a well-rounded back. Behind strong run blocking from Louisville, Keyjuan Brown has plenty of speed for explosive runs:

RB Keyjuan Brown finds a hole to break off the 24 yard TD

And again:

RB Keyjuan Brown gets a lane for a 67 yard TD

Here Brown shows some nice acceleration:

RB Keyjuan Brown gets good blocks for a 20 yard run

And though Brown may not be the biggest and most punishing back, he can run through tackles and pick up extra yards:

RB Keyjuan Brown with a strong run up the middle for 18 yards

And again, just one play later:

RB Keyjuan Brown with a nice run for 34 yards

Brown has also shown decent touch receiving out of the backfield:

RB Keyjuan Brown picks up 38 yards on the swing pass

Here Brown makes a nice catch and quickly turns upfield, showing good feel after the catch:

RB Keyjuan Brown breaks a pair of tackles to run it 38 yards into the endzone - play is negated by offsetting holding penalties

Here Brown has a great second effort, and just keeps his legs churning until he fights his way into the endzone, carrying tacklers with him:

RB Keyjuan Brown with a great second effort to fight his way in for the 2 yard TD

So even though Louisville has had some injuries in the running back room, they’ve showed no sign of slowing down given their depth at RB.

Receivers

Louisville has one of the best wide receivers in college football this year in Chris Bell, who will likely be one of the first receivers off the board in the upcoming NFL Draft. Bell fits the mold of an AJ Brown or a DK Metcalf—he’s a big-bodied receiver a 6’2” 220 lbs., but also possesses some serious speed for his size, running a 4.4 in the 40-yard dash. Given his size and speed, he’s a very tough receiver to cover, and it’s a pick-your-poison dilemma when covering him. If you try to jam him at the line, he can win with his physicality and is a threat to blow past you with his speed. If defenders respect his speed and give him a free release, his strength and physicality make him difficult to bring down, often requiring multiple tacklers, and he picks up plenty of yards after the catch.

With no safety help, Bell easily wins on the route for the touchdown:

WR Chris Bell wins in man coverage for the 25 yard TD

Even with a defender draped all over him, Bell still makes incredible catches:

WR Chris Bell makes a fantastic one-handed catch despite the defensive holding for the 13 yard TD

Here the safety gets caught flat-footed, and Bell immediately makes the defense pay with his speed:

WR Chris Bell on the slant for the 64 yard TD

Although Bell can win with his vertical speed, his physicality allows him to turn short catches into bigger gains:

WR Chris Bell fights through tackles to pick up 17 yards on the catch

Here his speed and acceleration in short distance punishes defenders who take any less than the perfect pursuit angle on him:

WR Chris Bell makes the catch and run for the 15 yard TD on the crossing route

Bell is also a big threat with yards after the catch, remaining elusive in the open field:

WR Chris Bell makes two tacklers miss and somehow finds his way to the endzone for the 36 yard TD

And again, turning a routine play into a big gain:

WR Chris Bell with a nice run after the catch on the shallow cross for the 35 yard TD

In the slot is the incredibly explosive Caullin Lacy, whose speed and elusiveness to make defenders miss in open space has made him one of the best returners in college football this year.

Lacy can use his speed to get open:

WR Caullin Lacy uses his speed to get open for the 37 yard catch

Or he can shake a defender with his route running:

WR Caullin Lacy runs a nice route to get open and makes a nice catch for the 23 yard TD

Lacy quickly finds the void in the defense to get open for the touchdown:

WR Caullin Lacy wins on the skinny post route for the 24 yard TD from QB Miller Moss

And of course, his ability to make tacklers miss in open space:

WR Caullin Lacy with a nice run after the catch for 25 yards

After Bell and Lacy, there is a big drop-off in the number of targets. PFF has Bell with 56 catches on 80 targets and Lacy with 44 catches on 58 targets, and the receiver with the third most catches and targets is the tight end, Nate Kurisky, with 14 catches on 22 targets. No other receiver averages more than 2 targets per game.

The following clip probably belongs in the QB section because it’s one of the few instances of a nice throw on the run from QB Miller Moss, but it was the best example of Kurisky’s receiving ability:

TE Nate Kurisky lays out for the 9 yard TD catch - great throw by QB Miller Moss to layer it over the defender under pressure

The other starting receiver is SJSU transfer TreyShun Hurry, but with 9 catches this season and a long of 11 yards, nothing really stood out to me to show here.

Although it kind of gets lost in the degradation of video quality here (my high definition video clipped, converted to mp4, stripped the sound, converted to GIF, and then uploaded), you’ll have to take my word that this was a nice catch with his fingertips by WR Antonio Meeks here:

WR Antonio Meeks with the nice fingertips catch over the middle for 23 yards

Backing up Chris Bell is NC State transfer Dacari Collins, who has also shown some similar traits to Bell (you may remember him from last year), such as the ability to make a one-handed catch:

WR Dacari Collins makes a one-handed catch in the endzone for the 2-pt conversion

Or his ability to use his larger frame for contested catches:

WR Dacari Collins with a nice contested catch for 36 yards - although QB Miller Moss missed multiple open receivers on this play

So while I think Miller Moss may not be the most elite quarterback, he definitely has a fantastic supporting cast to help him out.

Special Teams

Louisville uses two kickers, Cooper Ranvier for most field goal attempts, and the kickoff specialist Nick Keller for very long FGs. Ranvier has been reliable from shorter distances, while Keller is 2/3 from 50+ (hitting two 57 yard FGs). Keller’s long distance kicking may not be ideal for PATs, which is why Ranvier now has PAT duties:

K Nick Keller low PAT nearly blocked

WR Caullin Lacy has two punt return touchdowns, and was just one errant step on the sideline from having a third. Teams have kicked to Lacy at their own risk:

WR Caullin Lacy makes 4 tacklers miss for the 93 yard punt return TD

Another big one:

WR Caullin Lacy with a 75 yard punt return TD

And finally, his third, which would have been a touchdown had he not stepped out at the 5 yard line:

WR Caullin Lacy returns the punt 63 yards for a near TD but steps out at the 5

Louisville’s special teams can make a big impact, reliably scoring FGs and flipping the field with big returns.

Conclusion

Cal is facing their longest odds of the season against Louisville as 18.5-point underdogs. That’s a surprisingly big margin to me, as I don’t really think the teams are really that far apart in terms of talent, but it’s more of a reflection of how poorly Cal has played and underperformed this year. I keep waiting on the one game a year where Wilcox and the defense punch above their weight, and while I think they can definitely confuse and frustrate Miller Moss, I don’t have much faith in the offense to get anything going against Louisville. Louisville has a very strong defensive line that will likely be in the backfield harassing JKS, with an opportunistic secondary that feasts off early throws from the QB resulting from that defensive line pressure. The Cal offense is pretty clearly one-dimensional, with no real run game to speak of, and defenses are finding it easier and easier to shut down Cal’s passing game as a result. Louisville has a tendency to turn the ball over a lot (they have had at least one turnover in every game this year), so Cal’s best chance is to turn this game into a rock fight with a couple of defensive turnovers (or ideally, defensive TDs), frustrate Miller Moss with pressure in a close game, and cobble enough cohesive drives on offense to win a low scoring game. Cal does not have a shot at winning an offensive shoot-out with Louisville, but Wilcox has shut down much better offenses in previous seasons (usually Washington, given Wilcox’s Duck nature), so I have to hold out a glimmer of hope here. It’s hard to picture Cal winning more than 6 games this year given the current trajectory though, so one upset would be nice, but it’s starting to feel more and more like Cal is just waiting through a lame Duck season.

As always,

Go Bears.

You can find my full clips here.