North Carolina Football 2025: Defensive Preview

Can the Golden Bears exploit a fractured UNC defense and culture on Friday night at Memorial Stadium? Let's take a look!

Just a couple of years ago, I was in my final semester at UC Berkeley when it was announced that a lifeline was thrown our way and Cal was headed to the ACC. Amongst all of the noise and discourse on whether or not this was a program saver or killer, the final nail in the coffin of the Pac-12’s legacy, and if this would eliminate the historic Olympic sports in the East Bay - came some irony and humor in the potential of the California Golden Bears getting to go up against UNC’s Mack Brown, after he publicly lobbied and cried against Cal going to the 2005 Rose Bowl in the 2004 season over his Texas Longhorns.

HC Bill Belichick in his first season at UNC (via Reuters)

While I can be bitter about that, I was only a small child at the time, and the 2005 Rose Bowl is one of my first memories of college football and sports in general. Many Cal fans rejoiced at the opportunity to beat Mack Brown for bestowing a public image on Cal that many felt invalidated their accomplishments for that season and many to follow, but instead, Mack Brown was fired from North Carolina last year after publicly stating that he wished/intended to return for 2025, leaving Cal fans empty-handed in this year’s revenge tour.

So, what do the Golden Bears get instead of their planned revenge on Coach Brown: The greatest coach of all time, Bill Belichick. The defensive-minded, 8x Super Bowl champion, and… now very much talked about Coach Belichick, took over the reins in Chapel Hill during the off-season, and a turbulent start just might be an understatement for the renowned football tactician/historian.

Melkart Abou-Jaoude picking up a Sack against Richmond (via 24/7 Sports)

Since joining the Tar Heels as their Head Coach, Belichick has been in headlines for his publicized relationship with 24-year-old Miss Maine USA runner-up Jordon Hudson, who is 49 years his junior. While his personal life has been the topic of discussion and jokes across the nation, the discussion and rumors surrounding a potential exit from Chapel Hill have already begun, as UNC has struggled in its first 5 games this season, but both the University and Head Coach have come forward to state that they are committed to this season.

While that may be the case, it is more fun to speculate and drive up hysteria in my brain that Cal has the potential to send the greatest coach of the modern football era into retirement with a blowout loss at Memorial Stadium. So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the defensive preview for the UNC Tar Heels before the Friday Night ACC matchup in Berkeley.

2024 Defense in Review:

• While the plug was pulled on last season’s staff, the 2024 6-7 Tar Heels Football program was led on defense by co-Defensive Coordinators Geoff Collins and Tommy Thigpen. Since being let go and replaced by the younger and mulleted Belichick, Collins has been with the South Carolina Gamecocks as a Senior Defensive Assistant, while long-time Mack Brown assistant Thigpen is the current LB coach for the Dallas Renegades of the UFL.

• Ranked 72^nd in Total Defense (measurement of the total yards a team’s defense allows on average per game), 89^th in Turnovers Gained, 6^th in Sacks, 66^th in Rushing Defense (149.5 YPG and 493 OPP Rush for 1,943 OPP Rushing Yards), and 80^th in Passing Yards Allowed (2,942 Passing Yards on 374 Pass Attempts).

• Gave up 70 points to James Madison and 41 points to both Boston College and Georgia Tech in ACC play.

• Lost star DE Beau Atkinson (transferred to Ohio State), LB Kaimon Rucker, LB Power Echols, and Jahvaree Ritzie to the NFL.

Mikai Gbayor (via goheels.com)

2025 Defense Thus Far:

Ruh Roh, North Carolina…

• While I will not claim nepotism or question the 8x Super Bowl Champion, Bill Belichick, in his hiring practices, his pick for Defensive Coordinator being none other than his son, Stephen, in the midst of the Belichick/Hudson takeover drama is arguably far from the weirdest or craziest thing going on in Chapel Hill.

• Since taking over at the helm of DC, Stephen Belichick and his father at HC are sitting at 2-3 (0-1 ACC) entering Friday Nights’ contest in Berkeley, the North Carolina Tar Heels are ranked 100^th in OPP Points/Game (30.8), 97^th in OPP Yards/Game (417.3), 102^nd in OPP Yards/Play (6.0), 99^th in OPP 3D Conversions (43.4% success rate), and 131^st in OPP 4D Conversions (80% success rate).

• The Tar Heels did, however, have a great brand/legacy appeal to attract Boise State star-transfer LB Andrew Simpson, Freshman All-American LB Khmori House from Washington, and UCONN standout DL Pryce Yates, who has struggled with injuries and getting into action thus far this season.

Stephen Belichick, in his first season as DC (via Sports Illustrated)

North Carolina Provisional Starters:

Running a 4-2-5 Defensive scheme (a defense with 4 down linemen, 2 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs), the Tar Heels will likely run a starting Defensive lineup with the following players:

• Linebackers: #2 – Andrew Simpson (MLB) & #7 – Khmori House (WLB)

• Secondary: #1 – Thaddeus Dixon (LCB), #5 – Gavin Gibson (FS), #21 – Kaleb Cost (NB), #29 – Marcus Allen (RCB), & #31 – Will Hardy (SS)

• D-Line: #6 – D’Antre Robinson (NT) & #91 – Leroy Jackson (DT)

• DE: #8 – Smith Vilbert (LDE) & #9 – Melkart Abou-Jaoude (RDE)

Smith Vilbert in Summer Camp (via 24/7 Sports)

Players and Personnel to Watch:

For lack of a better term, the UNC defense is a bus filled with talent that has nobody driving it to its destination. With rumors of leadership issues swirling around Belichick’s approach towards communication and coaching with the talented group of young men he is leading, it is of little surprise to see how much the defense has struggled in 5 games this season. A 34-point loss to TCU at home, a 25-point loss to “Central” on the road, and a 28-point loss at home to the struggling Clemson Tigers show a trend in defensive collapses, but I also grew up watching Cal football, and sometimes it is best to ignore context/history as it often becomes irrelevant for the potential “trap game.”

With that lovely and totally not “we’re always doomed” Golden Bear mindset, Cal absolutely needs to be wary of North Carolina’s LB Andrew Simpson, who has collected 28 total tackles (4 TFL) and 2 sacks thus far this season, DB Kaleb Cost, who has 23 total tackles and an interception, back-up LB Mikai Gbayor, who has picked up 19 total tackles and a sack, as well as Melkart Abou-Jaode, who has 14 total tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 TFL in the first 5 games this season. There is no room for error here.

So, How Does Cal Win This Game?

Keeping my personal opinions of Justin Wilcox’s depth-chart methodology aside, the RB1 position is still not solidified for any specific player, even though we have seen Kendrick Raphael take on a majority of the snaps and rushes. Perhaps this is strategic, as UNC’s one saving grace on defense this season has been their ability to “slow down” the offensive rush. I say “slow down” instead of stop, because they have only been able to truly stop the likeness of Charlotte and FCS Richmond’s rushing game, which has helped them rank 40^th in the FBS for OPP Rush Yards/Game (128.3).

If Cal’s offensive line can be a protective wall for JKS, and JKS learns from the VERY rookie mistakes he made last game against Duke, then Cal will flourish in the passing game. The Cal O-Line cannot let up. UNC ranks 132^nd in Sack % with just 1.97% while JKS took an absolute beating against the Blue Devils and took 6 sacks for a loss of 41 yards.

UNC ranks 135^th/136 FBS teams in OPP Completion % at 71.81% where opponents are gaining an average of 7.8 yards per completion (95^th in FBS). IF JKS can exploit this huge gap in the Tar Heel defense, he will join the likes of TCU, Clemson, and UCF, who abused the North Carolina secondary by racking up an average of 289 yards/game.