Cal's next five opponents are currently ranked. First up are the #15 Oregon State Beavers; a well-coached team with excellent offensive and defensive lines.
Something has got to give. Cal's run defense has been pretty stout (I think advanced metrics puts us in the top 15), while OSU's run game has been a top 15 unit.
Oct 5, 2023·edited Oct 5, 2023Liked by Christopher Helling
Just guessing, but I think you could/should start a channel that is Football basics. I class for dummies/newbies and journeymen football fans. I know I'd pay to be in that class.
So, awesome, insightful, and easy to understand.
Thank you Chris for all the great work and the time and effort it takes.
Best line this time:
"You don’t want to know how Coach Smith pantomimes to the defensive line that they need to get penetration."
Heck of an offense, thanks for the in-depth preview. The stadium will be nearly filled. It will come down to a few seconds on the clock near the end of the game when Cal pulls out a win with a field goal. It is an entertaining and close game the whole way through. Everyone is happily surprised by the win, except the Beavs.
How will we have a chance when we are terrible at passing and OSU has a dominant run defense? I highly doubt it will be a low scoring rockfight when we are swapping out ASU's 4th string QB with 5* DJ in back to back weeks.
We have a chance, but it's slim. I'd defer judgement until the end of Q1. If we are in the game at that point then we have a shot. If we have spotted them points because of turnovers or special teams breakdowns, or problems in the secondary, then we could be toast.
Did you preview their O line? If you did, I missed it. I think it is very good. Pappy Waldorf once said, "Running backs are a dime a dozen. Good linemen are hard to find."
no, us. Upon viewing the highlights in these contexts of the upcoming opposing teams, and addition to maybe having watched them live, their speed and execution stands out in comparison. Any optimism further weakens.
I think we will know everything after Cal's first drive on offense. If it's three and out, it's probably game over like last year when Cal had 9 total net rushing yards for the whole game. A long sustained drive means a turf war that will be fun to watch.
There will be some intrigue all the way up to the game start as to who the starting quarterback for Cal will be. If it's Sam Jackson, Oregon State will shut down the running game as they did last year when Ott only had 20 yards of rushing. We know that Jackson is not good enough to carry the game on his own. Utah's backup to Cam Rising is kind of a mirror image to Jackson, and Oregon State shut him down completely last Friday night. He finished with 8 completions out of 23 attempts and 101 yards. As odd as it sounds, starting Finley and telling him to play freely is the only chance for a Cal win, IMO. If Finley gets the start but is worried about heaving it downfield because of interceptions, that's game over, too.
Need to remember that despite those three horrible interceptions against Washington, he is the only guy that has shown he can run the offense the way Spavital wants it run. He is also the only guy to start and win a game against a ranked team. I believe they are going to give him another chance because their options are so limited.
Maybe and who knows. Given the OSU ability to stop the run, it may be a time to unleash the beast in Sam on the hope he's not killed and busts some big ones. We are rather damned any way we turn. This is on Wilcox. The Beavers are a shining example, like Utah, that coaching matters.
Hard to believe that Wilcox is the second most tenured head coach in the conference. I still remember when Cal went into Corvallis in 2018 and smoked first-year head coach Jonathan Smith 49-7. My, how things have changed.
I am so glad you used that photo of Jonathan Smith. That was some peak hilarity.
Something has got to give. Cal's run defense has been pretty stout (I think advanced metrics puts us in the top 15), while OSU's run game has been a top 15 unit.
24th according to this, which is still good. Martinez, though, is a force.
https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/team/football/ncaaf/8659
Just guessing, but I think you could/should start a channel that is Football basics. I class for dummies/newbies and journeymen football fans. I know I'd pay to be in that class.
So, awesome, insightful, and easy to understand.
Thank you Chris for all the great work and the time and effort it takes.
Best line this time:
"You don’t want to know how Coach Smith pantomimes to the defensive line that they need to get penetration."
I'm dying.
Go Bears!
Love it. Really appreciate your efforts to create these posts. Go Bears!
Heck of an offense, thanks for the in-depth preview. The stadium will be nearly filled. It will come down to a few seconds on the clock near the end of the game when Cal pulls out a win with a field goal. It is an entertaining and close game the whole way through. Everyone is happily surprised by the win, except the Beavs.
are you a traveler from an alternate dimension?
I agree that a field goal might win it. Bhaghani better be ready. But as far as the stadium being filled, well, that's the alternate dimension part.
How will we have a chance when we are terrible at passing and OSU has a dominant run defense? I highly doubt it will be a low scoring rockfight when we are swapping out ASU's 4th string QB with 5* DJ in back to back weeks.
We have a chance, but it's slim. I'd defer judgement until the end of Q1. If we are in the game at that point then we have a shot. If we have spotted them points because of turnovers or special teams breakdowns, or problems in the secondary, then we could be toast.
Hopefully one day we will have a HC that can do more with less rather than less with less
GO!
Bears!!!
This is one game we really need if we aspire to a bowl this season. Somehow we need to boost the offense and slowdown the OSU running game...
that "milk the clock" signal is exquisite
Did you preview their O line? If you did, I missed it. I think it is very good. Pappy Waldorf once said, "Running backs are a dime a dozen. Good linemen are hard to find."
I don't have to see the OSU defensive preview to know our offense will struggle. Our defense will need to, yet again, carry the day.
Great write up, as always.
nolo contendere
To OSU?
no, us. Upon viewing the highlights in these contexts of the upcoming opposing teams, and addition to maybe having watched them live, their speed and execution stands out in comparison. Any optimism further weakens.
I think we will know everything after Cal's first drive on offense. If it's three and out, it's probably game over like last year when Cal had 9 total net rushing yards for the whole game. A long sustained drive means a turf war that will be fun to watch.
As pessimistic as that is....after the first Cal drive no less. It has often told the tale.
Yeah, Utah's defense is no slouch and OSU played well against them.
But, the Bear does not quit, the Bear does not die.
Oh yeah, but I tell yah, it seems like so much hash given our reoccurring circumstances these many seasons.
I know.
It’s like facing a whole semester of classes you’re gonna fail or pull a “D.”
Unless the offense becomes a serious threat, this season will be hugely boring and sad. Maybe Sadbear is the perfect name for all of us.
I was really hoping we had turned a corner. Better, but not turned.
There will be some intrigue all the way up to the game start as to who the starting quarterback for Cal will be. If it's Sam Jackson, Oregon State will shut down the running game as they did last year when Ott only had 20 yards of rushing. We know that Jackson is not good enough to carry the game on his own. Utah's backup to Cam Rising is kind of a mirror image to Jackson, and Oregon State shut him down completely last Friday night. He finished with 8 completions out of 23 attempts and 101 yards. As odd as it sounds, starting Finley and telling him to play freely is the only chance for a Cal win, IMO. If Finley gets the start but is worried about heaving it downfield because of interceptions, that's game over, too.
I can almost promise you it won’t be Finley.
But don’t be surprised to see Mendoza getting the start
I would absolutely be surprised if it’s Mendoza but would love to see him get some run.
Great call with Mendoza, Ryandrew24
Need to remember that despite those three horrible interceptions against Washington, he is the only guy that has shown he can run the offense the way Spavital wants it run. He is also the only guy to start and win a game against a ranked team. I believe they are going to give him another chance because their options are so limited.
Maybe and who knows. Given the OSU ability to stop the run, it may be a time to unleash the beast in Sam on the hope he's not killed and busts some big ones. We are rather damned any way we turn. This is on Wilcox. The Beavers are a shining example, like Utah, that coaching matters.
Hard to believe that Wilcox is the second most tenured head coach in the conference. I still remember when Cal went into Corvallis in 2018 and smoked first-year head coach Jonathan Smith 49-7. My, how things have changed.