PAC-12 Tournament Preview

Who can topple Arizona, in multiple parts

In the conference preview article from December, I wrote “It’s Arizona, then everyone else.” While Arizona did come out on top, the Wildcats did have a few perplexing results this year(losses to OSU and USC). And, Washington State was a serious competitor for the entire season.

I also wrote that Colorado would be the only serious contender to Arizona for the conference title. While the conference season did not play out that way, I think it is true for the conference tournament. Let’s look at the bracket, and chart out a few different potential outcomes.

Courtesy PAC-12 Conference

THE FAVORITE: Arizona
NEXT UP: Colorado
THE LONGSHOT: USC
THE LONGSHOT, WriteForCalifornia edition: Cal

The Wednesday games are all compelling. Only 2 games separated the 5-11 seeds, and #12 Oregon State has impressive wins over Arizona and Utah.

THE PATH FOR THE FAVORITE AND NEXT UP

#9 USC defeats #8 Washington
#5 UCLA defeats #12 Oregon State
#7 Cal defeats #10 Stanford
#6 Utah defeats #11 Arizona State

This is my starting point for the 4 different outcomes. Again, no result out of these 4 games would surprise me, but this feels right to me.

USC over Washington. For most of the season, USC has drastically underperformed. However, they have been a wholly different team in March. They have gone 4-1 over the past 3 weeks, with their only loss a narrow 75-72 defeat in Pullman where they led the Cougars for 38 minutes of gametime. They ended the season with a convincing 78-65 victory over the Arizona Wildcats. Isaiah Collier has been dominant, and DJ Rodman has doubled his scoring output over the past few games.

Cal over Stanford. I’m not going to overanalyze this one. If Cal plays to their potential, they can beat anyone in the conference not wearing a Wildcats jersey. I trust the Coach Madsen and the players will give a much better effort and not end the season with 4 straight duds.

Utah over Arizona State. UCLA over Oregon State. The teams with better talent will win both games.

#1 Arizona defeats #9 USC
#5 UCLA defeats #4 Oregon
#2 Washington State defeats #7 Cal
#3 Colorado defeats #6 Utah

Arizona’s loss to USC is too fresh in their memory. Tommy Lloyd’s crew won’t be surprised, and handle USC easily.

I don’t trust Oregon right now. They were down to 7 fully healthy players last week, and seem to be playing out the string at this point. Adem Bona wins the battle against N’Faly Dante.

Washington State ends Cal’s season, just like last year. Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq and the rest of Cal’s 8-man rotation expend too much energy in their victory over Stanford. WSU uses the extra rest day to scheme how to shut down Tyson.

Utah makes a fight of it, but a fully healthy Cody Williams and KJ Simpson are too much for the Utes.

#1 Arizona defeats #5 UCLA
#3 Colorado defeats #2 WSU

Mick Cronin’s run end here. So does his coaching tenure in Westwood. He has not handled UCLA’s adversity well this season, fighting with reporters and throwing his own players under the bus. There are already rumors that he is the favorite for the open Louisville position. That may happen within a week.

Colorado is on their own hot streak to end the year. They finished the season 6-0, with the average margin of victory of 11 points. Cody Williams has been hampered by nagging injuries, but is reportedly fully healthy heading into the conference tournament. They squeak by WSU to advance to the championship.

#1 Arizona defeats #3 Colorado

The Wildcats’ trio of Caleb Love, Pelle Larson, and Oumar Ballo outduel the Buffalo’s trio of K.J. Simpson, Tristan da Silva and Cody Williams. It’s an instant classic, and a fitting ending to the PAC-12 tournament. The dominant program of recent memory closes out their third straight conference tournament championship.

Or…..

The Buffaloes win the game. Again, this would not be a wholly surprising outcome. They certainly have the talent, and in theory are still fighting for a berth into the NCAA tournament(though they should clinch if they reach the championship).

While I expect the Wildcats to win, I’ll be rooting for the Buffaloes if they reach the championship.

THE LONGSHOTS

Let’s have some fun with this.

As mentioned, USC is playing exceptionally well right now. They just beat Arizona. Who says they can’t beat them again. For Cal, the key will be to avoid Utah and Arizona, the two teams which present the worst matchups for Cal on both offense and defense. Cal has beaten every other team in the league.

Keep the Wednesday results the same. Winners are USC, UCLA, Cal, Utah. The quarterfinals;

#9 USC over #1 Arizona
#4 Oregon over #5 UCLA
#7 Cal over #2 WSU
#3 Colorado over #6 Utah

USC’s backcourt duo of Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier both have over 25 points as USC stuns Arizona in back-to-back games. Dana Altman shows why he is an excellent coach and holds his team together with duct tape and elbow grease as they eke out a win over UCLA.

Cal commits only 7 turnovers, and play exceptional defense on WSU’s Myles Rice and Jaylen Wells. The Cougar’s interior game is held in check just enough by Fardaws Aimaq and Grant Newell, and Cal earns a solid win over WSU. Colorado has too much firepower, and plays pressure defense to disrupt Utah’s Branden Carlson. Colorado advances.

#9 USC over #4 Oregon
#7 Cal over #3 Colorado

USC keeps the wave going. Oregon’s N’Faly Dante aggravates his leg injury, and he plays limited minutes in the loss.

Jaylon Tyson has the game of his life with a triple double, as Cal ekes out a victory over the Buffaloes. KJ Simpson’s last second shot for the win is no good

#9 USC over #7 Cal

If USC were to win the championship, it’ll be on the strength of Isaiah Collier. Collier is a slightly shorter but quicker version of Jaylon Tyson. They can generate their own shot in multiple ways going to the basket, and have both elevated their games to improve their teammates. In Cal’s victory over USC last month, Collier was just returning from injury and almost bought USC back to snatch the win away from Cal. This time, he gets the job done, and wins the matchup battle with Tyson. Cal comes up just short.

Or……

Photo courtesy Rob Hwang

Jalen Cone shuts down Boogie Ellis. Keonte Kennedy gets enough help defense from his teammates to keep Isaiah Collier in check. Andy Enfield sticks with a small lineup in his recent iteration of Collier hero-ball (hey’s it’s worked to get to this point). As a result Fardaws Aimaq goes for his own triple double, including a block on a driving Isaiah Collier in the last second to secure the win.

Cal advances.

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#humblebrag time.

Returning to my conference preview article, I accurately predicted that Cal would finish 7th, and Stanford finish 10th. Overall I had 9 schools exactly right or within one game of their final standings. I was wrong on Washington State, thinking their non-conference schedule was based on paper tigers and they would finish in the bottom half of the conference. I also thought Washington would continue their strong early season play into the conference schedule. Instead, Mike Hopkins has already been informed he will not be returning to Seattle next year, though he will coach the Pac-12 tournament and any postseason play the Huskies earn.

I’ll be in Las Vegas Wednesday through Saturday, covering Cal for as long as they are alive, and grabbing fan reaction as the sun goes down on the PAC-12 Conference. Follow my new account on Bluesky, or at WriteForCalifornia’s X feed for in-game updates.

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Again, the most likely outcome is Arizona versus Colorado or WSU in the finals. The middle of the conference was such a jumble. Utah, USC, Cal, UCLA could all go on a run to the finals if they play to their potential and get a break or two. For Cal, I expect them to win at least one game. If they lose, it will be a disappointment for this week, but would not mar what has been a successful return to relevance (and fan interest) for the season. We’ll talk more about that when we get to that point.