The Big Ten isn't interested in Cal so that might be a small problem. There isn't another P5 option for Cal so the best option is for the Pac to cobble something together. Otherwise get ready to be roommates with Boise and UNLV.
It's very clear that the Big 10 and SEC will be the most secure "major league" powers going forward. They'll probably screw us over a bit as lower tier members but we have bills to pay and they have a big, reliable bank.
They aren't going to be an option unless the Big Ten decides to expand to 24 members. Oregon and Washington are the next two in unless by some miracle Notre Dame decided they'd join if Stanford does, then Stanford would take UW's place. Then there are UNC, Duke, Virginia, Clemson and the other ACC schools that will be in play. If it didn't happen when Warren was actually considering travel partners for USC/UCLA it's not going to happen now. And the SEC never was and never will be an option. The only real non-MWC option for Cal will be when the ACC gets raided and the leftovers are looking for merger partners -- then Cal and whomever is left in the Pac 12 might have an option.
I'm arguing we should go SMU over UNLV. SMU gives better recruiting grounds and has a higher profile. They may be a bit of a paper tiger right now, but Dallas loves a good bandwagon. Plus, we know SMU has a strong donor base that is okay with paying players that is interested in returning to competitive football.
That's like saying Arkansas State gives better recruiting grounds and has a higher profile than Delaware State. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor all are ahead of SMU in the Dallas area, and none of those schools are even located there. SMU brings the Dallas/Texas market about like Occidental College brings the LA/California market.
None of those schools were hit with an actual death sentence. Any school we expand to at this stage will be a commitment and investment. If we want immediate results, we shouldn't expand.
Where would Cal go? It seems pretty certain the Big Ten and Big 12 aren't interested, and I'm just taking a wild guess that the SEC and ACC aren't either. Mountain West?
I'm not so certain MWC would want to take Cal. SJSU and Fresno would want them, but imagine the voting at the MWC table. You've got to convince Hawaii, New Mexico, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah St and Boise that Cal has value compared to Wazzu, Or St or even against NDSU and at the same time isn't a threat to any of them getting to the playoffs. Anybody who goes to the MWC has a better shot at the college football playoff moving forward than the Big 12 or Big 10. Cal needs to keep the PAC together. Waiting for the savior of the Big 10 makes Cal even less important than Rutgers. Just because these schools in the Big 10 are getting more money doesn't necessarily mean they're above board. Imagine the new plight of SC and UCLA that their players are going to play almost every single away game across the country. The sleep deprivation is unreal. Cal does not want that, trust me. Also what if ABC schedules a game in EST at 10 AM kickoff? That's 7 AM PST. Disaster. All for $20M to probably never win the conference because your players are wrecked by jet lag. Keep the PAC together. Give the west coast better representation by not pandering to TV deals.
I'm not so sure that the Big 12 wouldn't leap at Cal, Colorado, Arizona, and SDSU. It would cement northern and southern Cal. Give them some additional AAU schools, which reduces the odds of KU fleeing to the B1G someday if they can ever build a football program, and creates a contiguous line of states from the Pacific Ocean to Iowa and Texas.
Cal is a non-starter for the Big 12, that's a direct quote from the wife of a man who would know. They don't bring value and they indicated early on that they don't care for the Big 12 and that's all the powers that be apparently needed to know. Utah has fallen from consideration for the same reasons and since they have BYU. If something happened tomorrow and UO and UW went to the B1G the Big 12 would go after UA/ASU/CO/SDSU, and if UO and UW didn't go B1G they'd go after those two plus CO and UA with the possibility of ASU if necessary as a 17th to keep the AZ schools together. Of course that's Level 2 and could obviously change but that is apparently their strategy now.
I don't disagree with any of what you say, except that if Cal came asking to join the Big 12, given Cal's market and the National Lab affiliations, and the heavy engineering school focus of many Big 12 members, the Big 12 would not say "go away."
I don't think Boise would leave the MWC. They've got it made. They make so much money and have a clean shot at the college football playoff every year upon expansion. Their opponents love/hate them because they pack the stands. Boise State single handedly brought in Fox and ESPN to the negotiating table for their media deals. If we got Boise into the PAC, I'd be shocked.
Which is fine. The other mwc teams would leave instantly for more money and they can continue to run their own league. I just gave no idea why everyone thinks pac teams would leave a power conference, even if we become the worst, to join the mwc.
I'd rather take my chances being an underling in the Big10 than being on the Titanic that is the Pac-whatever with a possibility of not getting a life raft and getting demoted to perpetual feeder status in the Mountain West
The Mountain West is about to become a de facto college football playoff rep. AAC has lost just about everything. It is questionable that the MWC would take Cal if the Pac collapsed, Wazzu, OR State, bring value. Cal and Stanford do not. Awful Nevada packed in more fans than either of those schools. Think about it this way. There's a reason Cal and Stanford don't play, Boise, Air Force, or Fresno anymore. Oh wait, they've NEVER played Boise, and there's a reason for that. There is a reason Boise doesn't want to schedule them either, it's a waste of time. The Big 10 isn't coming knocking for either of those schools, their priorities are so wrong and their alumni know it. If Cal could axe it's athletics, it would.
With 6 conference champions as AQs in the new 12 team playoff, P5 +1, and the American all but gutted by the Big 12. It's pretty clear how this is going to work. The disparity between the MWC and the other G5 is pretty severe. This isn't just in level of play but financially. The Pac monetarily is significantly better than the MWC by a factor of 6 from media rights, excluding Hawaii and Boise as they negotiate their own media deals. It just depends, what are the aspirations of Cal? Is it money? Is it making the playoff? If the Pac collapses, which is unlikely, the new playoff format will essentially force the MWC to replace the PAC as a garaunteed spot in the playoff. Even if the Pac does not, Cal has a better chance making the playoff in the MWC than Pac, but will be much poorer. To shore up that difference Cal would need to kiss some serious Alumni rear end and cultivate a fan experience less collegiate and more professional. Make the money on sponsorships and market athletics less like supporting the school but as a devotional to true Golden Bears.
The Big Ten isn't going to offer. If they expand at all it will be Oregon and Washington, with a slight possibility of Stanford taking U Dub's spot if Notre Dame will join. Cal doesn't bring anywhere near close to the $70M in media value they want. Cal's best hope is that the Pac 12 is able to cobble something together, otherwise the Mountain West is a likely possibility.
Neither of them are an option unfortunately. The Pac 12 needs to stick together if Cal, OSU, and WSU want to remain P5. It's hard to believe that's the reality of the situation but it is.
If it means better TV deal and more money for us, Pac12 should expand and get SDSU and SMU.
And Cal should bolt to Big 10 as soon as chance arises.
The Big Ten isn't interested in Cal so that might be a small problem. There isn't another P5 option for Cal so the best option is for the Pac to cobble something together. Otherwise get ready to be roommates with Boise and UNLV.
It's very clear that the Big 10 and SEC will be the most secure "major league" powers going forward. They'll probably screw us over a bit as lower tier members but we have bills to pay and they have a big, reliable bank.
They aren't going to be an option unless the Big Ten decides to expand to 24 members. Oregon and Washington are the next two in unless by some miracle Notre Dame decided they'd join if Stanford does, then Stanford would take UW's place. Then there are UNC, Duke, Virginia, Clemson and the other ACC schools that will be in play. If it didn't happen when Warren was actually considering travel partners for USC/UCLA it's not going to happen now. And the SEC never was and never will be an option. The only real non-MWC option for Cal will be when the ACC gets raided and the leftovers are looking for merger partners -- then Cal and whomever is left in the Pac 12 might have an option.
Well Im not arguing what we should add SMU over UNLV. I care absolutely nothing about the Pac12 because
1) Pac12 is already garbage and it doesn't matter who we add (unless we get USC back)
2) Conference realignment will come up again every year if not more frequent
3) Cal should leave Pac12
So all I'm saying is we should do what gives us the most money NOW and don't need to worry about what's logical or what's prestigious.
Big 10 is garbage. Both LA schools will suffer the consequences.
I'm arguing we should go SMU over UNLV. SMU gives better recruiting grounds and has a higher profile. They may be a bit of a paper tiger right now, but Dallas loves a good bandwagon. Plus, we know SMU has a strong donor base that is okay with paying players that is interested in returning to competitive football.
That's like saying Arkansas State gives better recruiting grounds and has a higher profile than Delaware State. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor all are ahead of SMU in the Dallas area, and none of those schools are even located there. SMU brings the Dallas/Texas market about like Occidental College brings the LA/California market.
None of those schools were hit with an actual death sentence. Any school we expand to at this stage will be a commitment and investment. If we want immediate results, we shouldn't expand.
That death sentence was 35 years ago -- if they haven't recovered by now they never will.
Where would Cal go? It seems pretty certain the Big Ten and Big 12 aren't interested, and I'm just taking a wild guess that the SEC and ACC aren't either. Mountain West?
I'm not so certain MWC would want to take Cal. SJSU and Fresno would want them, but imagine the voting at the MWC table. You've got to convince Hawaii, New Mexico, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah St and Boise that Cal has value compared to Wazzu, Or St or even against NDSU and at the same time isn't a threat to any of them getting to the playoffs. Anybody who goes to the MWC has a better shot at the college football playoff moving forward than the Big 12 or Big 10. Cal needs to keep the PAC together. Waiting for the savior of the Big 10 makes Cal even less important than Rutgers. Just because these schools in the Big 10 are getting more money doesn't necessarily mean they're above board. Imagine the new plight of SC and UCLA that their players are going to play almost every single away game across the country. The sleep deprivation is unreal. Cal does not want that, trust me. Also what if ABC schedules a game in EST at 10 AM kickoff? That's 7 AM PST. Disaster. All for $20M to probably never win the conference because your players are wrecked by jet lag. Keep the PAC together. Give the west coast better representation by not pandering to TV deals.
I'm not so sure that the Big 12 wouldn't leap at Cal, Colorado, Arizona, and SDSU. It would cement northern and southern Cal. Give them some additional AAU schools, which reduces the odds of KU fleeing to the B1G someday if they can ever build a football program, and creates a contiguous line of states from the Pacific Ocean to Iowa and Texas.
Cal is a non-starter for the Big 12, that's a direct quote from the wife of a man who would know. They don't bring value and they indicated early on that they don't care for the Big 12 and that's all the powers that be apparently needed to know. Utah has fallen from consideration for the same reasons and since they have BYU. If something happened tomorrow and UO and UW went to the B1G the Big 12 would go after UA/ASU/CO/SDSU, and if UO and UW didn't go B1G they'd go after those two plus CO and UA with the possibility of ASU if necessary as a 17th to keep the AZ schools together. Of course that's Level 2 and could obviously change but that is apparently their strategy now.
I don't disagree with any of what you say, except that if Cal came asking to join the Big 12, given Cal's market and the National Lab affiliations, and the heavy engineering school focus of many Big 12 members, the Big 12 would not say "go away."
That is inaccurate -- the Big 12 has absolutely no interest in Cal and doesnt feel Cal brings any value. Period.
Why would we leave to a less prestigious conference?
I'm fairly certain there is no less prestigious P5 conference than the Pac 12 right now.
Everyone's talking as if the pac12 teams would go to the mwc instead of the best mwc moving to the pac12, which I don't understand.
I don't think Boise would leave the MWC. They've got it made. They make so much money and have a clean shot at the college football playoff every year upon expansion. Their opponents love/hate them because they pack the stands. Boise State single handedly brought in Fox and ESPN to the negotiating table for their media deals. If we got Boise into the PAC, I'd be shocked.
Which is fine. The other mwc teams would leave instantly for more money and they can continue to run their own league. I just gave no idea why everyone thinks pac teams would leave a power conference, even if we become the worst, to join the mwc.
I'd rather take my chances being an underling in the Big10 than being on the Titanic that is the Pac-whatever with a possibility of not getting a life raft and getting demoted to perpetual feeder status in the Mountain West
The Mountain West is about to become a de facto college football playoff rep. AAC has lost just about everything. It is questionable that the MWC would take Cal if the Pac collapsed, Wazzu, OR State, bring value. Cal and Stanford do not. Awful Nevada packed in more fans than either of those schools. Think about it this way. There's a reason Cal and Stanford don't play, Boise, Air Force, or Fresno anymore. Oh wait, they've NEVER played Boise, and there's a reason for that. There is a reason Boise doesn't want to schedule them either, it's a waste of time. The Big 10 isn't coming knocking for either of those schools, their priorities are so wrong and their alumni know it. If Cal could axe it's athletics, it would.
With 6 conference champions as AQs in the new 12 team playoff, P5 +1, and the American all but gutted by the Big 12. It's pretty clear how this is going to work. The disparity between the MWC and the other G5 is pretty severe. This isn't just in level of play but financially. The Pac monetarily is significantly better than the MWC by a factor of 6 from media rights, excluding Hawaii and Boise as they negotiate their own media deals. It just depends, what are the aspirations of Cal? Is it money? Is it making the playoff? If the Pac collapses, which is unlikely, the new playoff format will essentially force the MWC to replace the PAC as a garaunteed spot in the playoff. Even if the Pac does not, Cal has a better chance making the playoff in the MWC than Pac, but will be much poorer. To shore up that difference Cal would need to kiss some serious Alumni rear end and cultivate a fan experience less collegiate and more professional. Make the money on sponsorships and market athletics less like supporting the school but as a devotional to true Golden Bears.
The Big Ten isn't going to offer. If they expand at all it will be Oregon and Washington, with a slight possibility of Stanford taking U Dub's spot if Notre Dame will join. Cal doesn't bring anywhere near close to the $70M in media value they want. Cal's best hope is that the Pac 12 is able to cobble something together, otherwise the Mountain West is a likely possibility.
Neither of them are an option unfortunately. The Pac 12 needs to stick together if Cal, OSU, and WSU want to remain P5. It's hard to believe that's the reality of the situation but it is.