I've updated the code for the plots and in the future we'll have gold for the good, blue for the rockfights, and red for the bad. Getting the colors sorted was surprisingly fiddly (thanks ggplot), but it's improved and ready to go for the weekly series.
This may be way too much data/analysis (I'm an analyst by trade so...) but it would be cool to try to align the PFF grades with the post game fan ratings, see where the differences are because I think fan ratings are heavily influenced by expectations and theoretically the PFF grades aren't as much...
I was thinking the same thing when I was running these analyses. I'd have to combine a few categories (for example, PFF's pass protection, receiver routes, and passing for the pass offense category in our Rating the Bears series), but this seems feasible. It could be a useful way to measure our reactions and over-reactions against a more objective rating.
Good, and interesting, analysis. The next step would be to make it easy to equate the performance with the strength of opposition. Perhaps RPI? It would be interesting to see how often the everything is great scores are against struggling opposition, and the everything is terrible scores are against the best opposition (intuitively, you would expect this), or if there is a significant deviation from that. And what caliber of team are most of the rock fights against?
My biggest complaint about PFF is that the grades aren't adjusted for opponent quality. While the good and bad categories tend to be more swayed by opponent quality, rockfights can happen against anyone, from 1-11 Arizona in 2021 to 11-3 USC in 2017.
He is not the highest paid state employee "by far." He and Chip Kelly have virtually identical salaries right now, (Kelly $4,600,000, Wilcox $4,750,000 for 2022). I find this to be kind of impressive considering their relative track records. Cal are paying him above what he's accomplished so far. Obviously, Cal wants him to stay and feel he will take their program to a higher level commensurate with that salary.
"Very little incentive to improve?" How about Pride and Glory? Isn't that what sports are about?
Thank you for link, that really is an informative article about the Cal team performance to date and a prediction for the outcome of the Notre Dame game this weekend. As for the Three Types of Cal Games analysis, I love a good rock fight. We sure get a bunch of them.
It's highly unlikely we'll ever be an NFL pipeline again with the transfer portal. Anyone who's truly at an Aaron Rodgers level will transfer to a team that can win a championship.
I know, right? Wilcox can't develop talent because none of his former players are NFL superstars yet?
> "Wilcox can't develop talent" -
> well, here's Ashtyn Davis who couldn't get a football scholarship anywhere that developed into a 3rd round pick
> "That doesn't count because he's not dominating the NFL"
I'm happy for Bears that find success in the NFL, but how about we judge them for their success in college, which has a lot more to do with Wilcox than their success in the NFL. Tedford had NFL talent and was turning in 3-9 seasons by the end of it... and we're supposed to be happy because those players later found success _after_ leaving the program? I'm much more proud of the players like Evan Weaver, who despite not having otherworldly talent (evidenced by his struggles in the NFL), was an absolutely dominant college football player, and one of the best linebackers in college football. I think that takes serious coaching, and reflects much better on Wilcox than the NFL talent Tedford was squandering by the end of it.
And on that note, let's not pretend like recruiting in 2002 is anything like it is in 2022. Tedford found Aaron Rodgers on accident because he was scouting a different player in Cal's backyard. Nowadays Rodgers would have uploaded his own tape, emailed it to some college programs, and had scouts flying from all over the country to watch him launch 60 yard bombs.
This is a great idea. Let's move UC Berkeley to the south where a rabid CFB fanbase and low academic expectation will instantly allow us to achieve Alabama-esque CFB success.
So what's your suggestion? Do what Tedford did at the end of his tenure and recruit high-level players who couldn't academically qualify for Cal and washed out of the program shortly after? No thanks. Or was your suggestion to recruit more Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynches, and DeSean Jacksons? In which case, I agree with you, let's do that. And how do you propose to recruit these high 5-star level players to Cal when other blueblood programs like USC are backing up the Brinks truck to recruit them?
But Cal isn't condemned to mediocrity on a game-by-game basis. We have everything from the astounding beatdown of Wazzu in 2017 to the eye-bleachingly bad loss to Arizona in 2021. This is an exercise in making sense of all those individual performances.
If all our articles said "Admissions criteria limit our football recruiting, so there's nothing left to do but shrug our shoulders and sigh" then we wouldn't be the best Cal site out there.
Strong and Balanced = 🟨 Gold
Rockfight = 🟦 Blue
Everything is Bad = 🟥 Red
If it's all the same to you, that would be my only suggestion for this otherwise outstanding analysis.
I've updated the code for the plots and in the future we'll have gold for the good, blue for the rockfights, and red for the bad. Getting the colors sorted was surprisingly fiddly (thanks ggplot), but it's improved and ready to go for the weekly series.
I was literally going to post the exact same thing
This may be way too much data/analysis (I'm an analyst by trade so...) but it would be cool to try to align the PFF grades with the post game fan ratings, see where the differences are because I think fan ratings are heavily influenced by expectations and theoretically the PFF grades aren't as much...
I was thinking the same thing when I was running these analyses. I'd have to combine a few categories (for example, PFF's pass protection, receiver routes, and passing for the pass offense category in our Rating the Bears series), but this seems feasible. It could be a useful way to measure our reactions and over-reactions against a more objective rating.
Good, and interesting, analysis. The next step would be to make it easy to equate the performance with the strength of opposition. Perhaps RPI? It would be interesting to see how often the everything is great scores are against struggling opposition, and the everything is terrible scores are against the best opposition (intuitively, you would expect this), or if there is a significant deviation from that. And what caliber of team are most of the rock fights against?
My biggest complaint about PFF is that the grades aren't adjusted for opponent quality. While the good and bad categories tend to be more swayed by opponent quality, rockfights can happen against anyone, from 1-11 Arizona in 2021 to 11-3 USC in 2017.
Very interesting and thanks. Some heavy quant dudes at WFC to be sure!
He is not the highest paid state employee "by far." He and Chip Kelly have virtually identical salaries right now, (Kelly $4,600,000, Wilcox $4,750,000 for 2022). I find this to be kind of impressive considering their relative track records. Cal are paying him above what he's accomplished so far. Obviously, Cal wants him to stay and feel he will take their program to a higher level commensurate with that salary.
"Very little incentive to improve?" How about Pride and Glory? Isn't that what sports are about?
That sounds like my entire experience writing for CGB/W4C from the 2009 season through now
Thank you for link, that really is an informative article about the Cal team performance to date and a prediction for the outcome of the Notre Dame game this weekend. As for the Three Types of Cal Games analysis, I love a good rock fight. We sure get a bunch of them.
It's highly unlikely we'll ever be an NFL pipeline again with the transfer portal. Anyone who's truly at an Aaron Rodgers level will transfer to a team that can win a championship.
Multiple Wilcox-era players have gone to the NFL. Ashtyn Davis and Jaylinn Hawkins come to mind. Davis was a walk-on.
Rogers played 2 games in his second year. You're judging guys' careers who have just gotten started.
Also, I'm realizing I'm wasting my time replying to you if your take-away is "neither of those guys are very good". Trash take.
I know, right? Wilcox can't develop talent because none of his former players are NFL superstars yet?
> "Wilcox can't develop talent" -
> well, here's Ashtyn Davis who couldn't get a football scholarship anywhere that developed into a 3rd round pick
> "That doesn't count because he's not dominating the NFL"
I'm happy for Bears that find success in the NFL, but how about we judge them for their success in college, which has a lot more to do with Wilcox than their success in the NFL. Tedford had NFL talent and was turning in 3-9 seasons by the end of it... and we're supposed to be happy because those players later found success _after_ leaving the program? I'm much more proud of the players like Evan Weaver, who despite not having otherworldly talent (evidenced by his struggles in the NFL), was an absolutely dominant college football player, and one of the best linebackers in college football. I think that takes serious coaching, and reflects much better on Wilcox than the NFL talent Tedford was squandering by the end of it.
And on that note, let's not pretend like recruiting in 2002 is anything like it is in 2022. Tedford found Aaron Rodgers on accident because he was scouting a different player in Cal's backyard. Nowadays Rodgers would have uploaded his own tape, emailed it to some college programs, and had scouts flying from all over the country to watch him launch 60 yard bombs.
Excellent points that easily demolish straw-man arguments.
...who came to Cal as a package deal with his QB brother, Zach Maynard, that a school like Alabama would never put on the field
Your point would be an explanation for the analysis in the article. Of course it's over-analysis, this is college football.
If not for over-analysis there would be nothing to do from Sunday through Friday while we wait for more college football to happen.
Yes, exactly!
This is a great idea. Let's move UC Berkeley to the south where a rabid CFB fanbase and low academic expectation will instantly allow us to achieve Alabama-esque CFB success.
Ok but that's not what this article is about? I was just very confused since your initial comment was very off-topic based on the article.
Also... Cal isn't and will never be Alabama. Can we re-prioritize and have a success? yes. Will we be a football-first school? No.
So what's your suggestion? Do what Tedford did at the end of his tenure and recruit high-level players who couldn't academically qualify for Cal and washed out of the program shortly after? No thanks. Or was your suggestion to recruit more Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynches, and DeSean Jacksons? In which case, I agree with you, let's do that. And how do you propose to recruit these high 5-star level players to Cal when other blueblood programs like USC are backing up the Brinks truck to recruit them?
But Cal isn't condemned to mediocrity on a game-by-game basis. We have everything from the astounding beatdown of Wazzu in 2017 to the eye-bleachingly bad loss to Arizona in 2021. This is an exercise in making sense of all those individual performances.
If all our articles said "Admissions criteria limit our football recruiting, so there's nothing left to do but shrug our shoulders and sigh" then we wouldn't be the best Cal site out there.
We're never going to get 5 star recruits with 1.7-2.0 GPAs in high school.
Yeah but the administration would never go for it and APR is too important to mess with right now.