Despite their record a few College Football analysts I respect have said all season "ASU's offense is a mess, but they have a great defense." I think what we saw last weekend was their defense play up to their billing, and their offense go for broke and make it a game. Like Nick said, they were down 7 in the 4th quarter a week ago against U$C. Would not be surprised if the beat Colorado at home this weekend.
As the season rolls on, every team on our schedule will have their ups and downs. Oregon St at home could be a great opportunity for an upset. A depleted Utah team looking ahead to USC. USC coming to Berkeley after their grudge match against Utah while we're on a bye. UCLA in a meaningless game after they lose to USC.
3 more wins and a Bowl Berth is not out of the question.
I could be wrong but my recollection (yes, it is getting worse every year) is that Wilcox teams come out flat after bye weeks and, shockingly, not at all improved. But geez it sure would be nice for a change and a proper beat down of $C this year.
Super......interested in why you think Oregon State is a good opportunity for an upset. They absolutely crushed Cal last year by shutting down Ott early. Ott finished with 20 rushing yards.. Sure, Cal upset Oregon State at home two years ago with at least a competent quarterback in Garbers. Oregon State played so poorly in that game that head coach Jonathan Smith tarmacked his defensive coordinator. Things are soooo different now. Sam Jackson has a 32.1 quarterback ranking (out of a possible 100 points). That is tied for the worst in the conference with one of the two Stanford quarterbacks. For some reference, Oregon State quarterback DJ Uigalellei has an 80.6 ranking and spreads the ball around the field. Cal is currently not capable of doing that.
Designed runs for Jackson will only limit his playing time. He will get smashed, smashed, smashed. Best to save his running for when he needs to scramble, that is when he will be most effective anyways. Teams will continue to load the box against us cuz we ain't beating anyone with our passing game and OL play.
It is crazy how poor of a product Cal football is. Defense wins championships, offense fills the seats. We are offensive offensively. No one wants to see dat shit!!
In this game, he was probably more of a decoy to free up others. He did gain about 25 yards running bit in college, a sack is counted as negative rushing yards so the overall stay is negative.
Just saying right now, his mobility needs more prominence in the game and the Coaches should scheme better.
Another stat not fully appreciated: I was at the game and kept track of the TV timeout clock. It was used 17 times for a total of 44.5 minutes! (This does not include 30-second timeouts or halftime.) And they don't start the clock for a good 10 seconds after a timeout is called. How much more time would it have been on ESPN? TV networks are making games more and more unwatchable. Sooner or later the fact that fewer and fewer people have the patience to attend games will translate into fewer and fewer people watching on TV. When will the networks wake up to the fact that they are bludgeoning their own business model?
We counted too and had sixteen but I thought we missed one. It's ridiculous especially when there's less than two minutes of play between commercials. One of those things in sports that really makes me yearn for "the good old days."
Yes, same if not worse for Auburn. I recall an article referencing the crowd at Wembley complaining about "all of the standing around" when the NFL came to London for the first time.
And the irony is the commercials are supposed to pay for the games, but going forward, Cal won't be in line for much of that cash for ~8 years...
Thanks for sharing this information. I'm going to record some of the games and begin watching them after halftime so that I can just fast forward the commercials since I'll never get that time back otherwise.
That's what I do with road games. I record and start watching after about an hour and a quarter. I usually catch up to the game late in the fourth quarter (I also fast forward through commercials and replays of opposing team TDs). I recommend it.
Thank you for pointing this out. It makes these kinds of defensive games so much more unbearable to sit still for and watch, be it at the stadium or on the couch. Damn.
Saw the game in person and had a few observations:
We were lucky the devils shot themselves in the foot on 4th down a couple of times with unforced errors, otherwise they win by two scores.
Jackson looks tiny - no wonder he doesn’t throw over the middle very much - even though that look was wide open all game. ASU brought its safeties right up to the LOS on many occasions on obvious passing downs just daring us to throw over the top and we could not (and didn’t try either to keep them honest even).
Ott looks like an NFL player already. I sure hope he sticks with us and doesn’t enter the portal after a 4 or 5 win season this year. I wish we tried the wheel route or throwing to him in space.
The phantom penalties were crushing as they were confusing, especially the 15-yarder on Endries for block below the waist when he literally just fell on his own face and a guy tripped over him. People near me in the stands were in shock while they showed the replay.
Only D linemen that were noticeable was Carlton and sometimes Johnson.
I love this program, but boy, it was painful to watch for stretches on Saturday. I hope they watch the film and think of ways to at least keep defenses honest these next 5 tough games.
I was at the game as well and agree with your observations. There were intermittent periods when we played well, and we did make some good plays, but mostly our offense just could not sustain drives. I did see a bit more diversity in the play calls than the past games. We need to use the speed we have more often and more passes in the middle, as you have pointed out. The defense is good, except our DBs make more mistakes than I remember over the past few years. I left my seat midway through the fourth quarter and watched from up top. It was a chance to move around and get a different view. No matter how I look at it, I still don't get that attempted one man TD play call. Probably never will. I will be at the game this Saturday night. I have no illusions about who will win. But for heaven's sake make it a game guys. I think the players work hard and do not give up, and I admire that. I just don't have much faith in the coaching.
I don’t know why the offense is being limited by the coaches. We are not utilizing the field and “open spaces” at all. There are no runs off tackle, no quick outs, no swing passes, no slants. Just sideline jump balls and runs between the tackles. Opposing defenses know we can’t throw downfield and are taking away Jackson’s legs. So whatever benefit we thought we’d see with his mobility is not going to come to fruition.
We should not still be fighting down to the last play for the win, especially against teams like ASU. We were almost outplayed by a 3rd/4th string QB whose stats were light years better than Sam’s. Spav and Wilcox need to game plan something better to give Sam and chance and perhaps a confidence boost because he looked downright dejected during the post game presser. And the defensive breakdowns are especially frustrating.
last few years I was so frustrated at the offense doing way too many screen passes and short passes... but this year those seem so non-existent. when we could really use it with the quarterbacks we have to get their confidence going, get some yards and open up running lanes and long throws.
Reading this well written recap of Saturday's game, I am reminded that bad or burned out head coaches do not get better with time (see Joe Kapp 85-86, Tom Holmoe 99-2000 and Jeff Tedford 2013.) Wilcox is dead man walking, but it's the longest walk from the cell to the chamber in the history of college football.
I fully expect Cal to lose all of the next five games to ranked opponents because all those teams have to do is stack the box and shut down Jayden Ott to win. Oregon State held Ott to 20 yards last year and romped to their most decisive win of the year. I think Cal's best chance for a win is against Utah, assuming that Cam Rising is not suiting up. If you watched the Oregon State-Utah game Friday night, you saw a Utah quarterback who is a mirror image of Sam Jackson: terrible footwork in the pocket, locking on primary receivers and jamming missile throws into tight coverage. If I'm Spav, I am dusting off my resume with an escape plan to get out of Dodge on the evening of Nov. 25.
Nice article - thank you. My impression of the offense at the moment is that it moves in fits and starts. We don't really have the oxen up front to be a pound it out run team especially against elite D lines like Utah, OSU, and UCLA. All they have to do is stack the box to stop Ott and pressure Sam. He needs to be able to roll out and throw more effectively than he has and not take sacks. Also getting guys in space has either not really been a focus or is not something we can execute. And the continuing failure to block for screens, no matter who the coach is, is maddening.
A stat that matters as much as any: turnover margin. Cal is in the upper half of Pac 12 teams in this category. If Cal's success in this area continues, the Bears will have a chance in some games where the other stats appear daunting.
Turnovers are too random to count on. You can sometimes be in perfect position to strip the ball, or the receiver runs the wrong pattern & you get a pick. But the better the opponent, the better their coaching, the less likely the ball falls your way.
Okay, if I understand you correctly, you’re saying you can’t rely on turnovers going forward. Of course, fluke plays happen all the time; sometimes a double-fumble fluke play turns the tide of a game (Sirmon TD vs. ‘Furd). That being said, there is a reason the Cal defense has taken pride in calling itself “The Takers”. Without the Cal pass rush pressuring Bourguet, for example, no Littlejohn INT occurs. Good defense often leads to turnovers. Your point that “sometimes the ball just falls your way” or a quirky mistake happens that dictates whether a turnover occurs (no one would argue with you, of course this happens), and also that a well-coached team won’t allow it to happen as much, results in kind of a funny argument (you say on the one hand turnovers are in large part random occurrences, implying therefore that having more takeaways than turnovers so far in the season is not a significant/durable predictor of future success, but you point out that good, well coached teams are less prone to it). Okay, well, exactly what Wilcox’s Cal squad throughout his time in Berkeley has tried to be (among other things such as, ahem, a winning team in conference play-still working on achieving that one), is a well-disciplined team that shrinks the game, grinds it out, takes care of the ball and wins the battle of turnovers (sure, many Cal fans might bicker with this approach). Chance does not account for trends, which is where stats come in handy whether I’m counting passing yards, penalties, FG% or turnovers. Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins. Maybe Cal will not be as plus in turnover differential once they’ve played the toughest opposing teams on their schedule (i.e. the next five games). But, FWIW while I’m beating a dead horse here, Oregon State has thrown more interceptions than TD’s over the past three games, and Uliagalelei was pretty prone to turning the ball over while at Clem’s Son. We’ll see if he does more of it on Saturday. Of course, if Cal can’t capitalize on opportunities from any turnovers that do happen, this whole question is moot.
Your discussion is well taken. If hypothetically if a team's defense is never coached in techniques for stripping the ball or playing a wr to high-top, or box out basketball-style to practice takeaways, then they are less likely to happen. So I agree, they are not completely random events. I'm just saying they can't be counted on. And while your point that "Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins" rings true, maybe because in that particular season, the ball did bounce their way.
Thank you, Nick. As usual, you do a great job of summing up the game.
Nick: "Will there be any rabbits pulled out of any hats?"
"Presto!
*RRRRooooaaarrrr!!
musta' been the wrong hat"
-Bullwinkle The Moose
Some observations.
Love Jackson V, but, when I taught Drama in high school, one thing I learned from those hoping to make their big break, besides the pervasive predation in the entertainment industry itself, you can be the best beef steak ever, but if they're looking for a pork chop, you're not gonna' make it. IMHO, Jackson V is loaded with talent, but robbed of height. We want to think his jackrabbit scrambles are just bad habits, but the reality is he scrambles to see. He is the shortest person in the pocket and he can't see. I believe it's that simple, Sam can't see in the pocket. God did not make him to be a pocket passer. He's a great beef steak, but we need a pork chop. All of which makes me wonder how we're not playing to his skills more. Maybe he's best placed as a WR or a RB; we need to get him in space.
One other observation about our schedule, yes, in the ASU game, we got breaks from the football gods and we do not normally get those breaks. Every Greek hero knows the gods are entirely fickle and somewhat indifferent to mortals, so the gods are not a plan. Thinking realistically, I believe we may have peaked and our hopes all come down to minimizing tragedy, rather than tempting the Fates with notions that we will somehow make a big break in two underdog games and actually bowl this season. The Fates love to foil heroic hubris. Meanwhile, I believe Furd showed signs of life against Oregon and, honestly, I think we can expect another tough fight from Furd. There is every possibility that, barring positive changes, we have won our last game this season. We can hope that we change for the better, find our groove, get grace from the gods, but, hope itself, is not a plan.
One last fun fact, it only gets better, for those of us relieved about and looking forward to the soft spots in our new conference, the ACC, thinking it might be a few contenders and a wealth of Vanderbilts, well, it might be a push. If I count rightly, there are six ACC members ranked in the Top Twenty as of now, including Louisville with our former QB, Plummer, slinging it. Let's make plans and changes, first, then do some praying. This season is rabbits out of hats and we should be using this experience to rally for the cultural and practical changes our program needs.
Disagree somewhat about Jackson V, he is robbed of more than height, he's just not a quarterback. His throwing form is woeful, his accuracy is uncalibrated, his judgement is suspect, and he lacks poise. Is he an athlete, yes he is, but he is playing out of position. probably should be a receiver.
We have no quarterback. Geez, for an embattled HC that hasn’t tasted success since ‘19, that’s a big problem.
This was always the concern for realistic Cal fans when Wilcox still hadn’t named a starter a week before the opener…it showed Sam was not where he needed to be, something that was suspected at the time but is now completely established beyond a doubt after 4 games.
Even tossing out the Ohio State-induced COVID disaster of a year in 2020, a coach that misses a bowl game for the 3rd straight season in year 7 at a Power 5 school
should be on his way out. Unfortunately, incompetent leadership at the Admin level has consequences and he’s almost certainly getting another year.
They should commit to doing their absolute best to develop Sammy Jax V these past 8 games to see if there is ANY chance he’s the guy in ‘24, this staff’s make-it-or-break-it season.
From what we’ve seen in the first month, though, none of these kids are close to being able to win against the P5 athletes they are set to face. And if Spavital can’t develop him, why TF is he here, because this offense looks a helluva lot like the schittburger mess we saw with Bill Musgrave the past 24 months…which means Wilcox is absolutely the issue.
and someone please stop him from leaning backwards during this throws. he is so scared anytime someone is near him and throws off his back foot. I mean fundamentals!!
I mostly agree with your SJV commentary. He actually reminds me more of Zach Maynard than McIlwain - a D2 talent out of his depth. He's not going to get coached out of his many bad habits within this season, and even that wouldn't be enough for him to play at the required level. Time to cut bait with him. In spite of UW, it has to be Finley. There would be a few more in the explosive plays category had he played this game.
However, I would love to see SJV at wr, could be a DeSean type. I think he's too slight for rb. Somehow his elite speed isn't manifesting itself on scrambles, he seems to get caught too often when trying to turn he corner. Perhaps showcasing his straight line speed at wr would allow him to blossom (assuming he can catch the ball).
During TOs at Washington, I was watching him play catch with someone and he was making 1 handed catches over his head. So I think he has the hands for it. At least a good starting point for it.
You are totally correct that Jackson is getting caught behind the line of scrimmage too often to suggest his escapability is even close to elite. And isn't that why Cal fans were so excited about him when he came here? When you add in the fact he cannot stay in the pocket and make check-downs to open receivers, you have the trainwreck of a passing offense that Cal is in right now. He has a 52% completion rate this year and only seemed to see Hunter in the entire ASU game. Go find that key to the doghouse, coach, and bring Finley back into the picture.
Enjoyed your post, but I have a slight disagreement about Jackson being loaded with talent. Good quarterbacks at the college and and pro level have the ability to see the field and complete check-downs to open receivers. I read during Fall camp that Spav and his team were trying to get Jackson to stay in the pocket and complete those check-downs the way that Davis Webb did in 2016. To your point, I think we are going to see a lot more designed roll-outs with Jackson going forward.
BTW, what was your favorite book or short story you taught to your students? I have fond memories of English and drama classes in high school because I completely sucked in math and the sciences.
Much to my surprise, I was able to navigate my introductory drama students through Oedipus, which seemed on-point for many students (ba dum tsss). I only taught it for two years, then switched to a speech/debate class and team, which did pretty well, but was not supported by the school, since I did not want to do endless bake sales (i.e. fundraising) on top of the time and energy to build and manage a team. To answer your question, no favorite, but as I have heard said, a directors favorite production is always his current one. As a teacher, I tried to focus on essential acting skills, first, and foremost, then the content would present itself. Our first year, we did Bye Bye Birdie and the second year, we did Grease.
I was the proverbial high school jock, but got talked into participating in one school play, Archibald MacLeish's J.B. I was one of the comforters. Wish I had done more.
I confess I am not familiar with that particular play. Yes, I, too, was a jock in H.S., but gave it up for speech/debate, since I thought I wanted to be a lawyer.
"That’s a credit to Kenny Dillingham, who managed to find ways to move the ball downfield despite fielding a line that couldn’t run block and a QB who couldn’t be counted on to throw the ball downfield."
Cal has historically been a QB school, to wit Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Paul Larson, Joe Kapp, Craig Morton, Steve Bartkowski, Troy Taylor, Nate Longshore, Mike Pawlawski, Gale Gilbert, Rich Campbell, Joe Roth, ad infinitum. HOW THE HELL DID WE END UP WITH THE CURRENT GROUP OF CRAP QBS?
We have two QB's with GREAT potential... they're just very young and inexperienced playing in the toughest conference in the nation. If you want to "win now", the answer is simple:
NIL
Thats how you get great experienced QB's now.
Every QB in the Pac12 is a Portal Player with a big NIL deal.
Caleb, Bo, Penix, Ward, Rising, DJ, Sanders, and de Laura
If you care, if you want to see our roster filled out with more talent at every position, you better have receipts.
Yes. Look at the ever-contenting big name schools. find out who lost the QB battle, especially if they were beat by someone younger. GRAB THEM. Point at other pac12 QBs who resurrected their career and became better. this team is yours!!
As I have posted before, its talent, brains, physicality, experience, and COACHING, but it all starts with RECRUITING. As the program has deteriorated so has the skill position talent, especially quarterbacking. I'm not blaming the kids, but the QBs on Cal's current roster are not a blue ribbon lot (and the last batch, including Garbers weren't either). As much as I respect and appreciate Wilcox, he is not the guy to lead Cal out of the Wilderness. Also, till Clueless Carol, Empty Suit Jim, and the diversity-before-merit, lackluster, senior athletic department staff are flushed out and replaced by a more capable group, Cal football is screwed. Cal's successful programs (crew, swimming, water polo, rugby) are all led by quasi-independent staffs with extremely capable leaders. These talented, successful sub-regimes within the greater, failed athletic department regime are "right-under-the-administrations-nose" models for Cal's overall athletics recovery.
I'm not sending a penny until the Great Purge occurs. When Clueless, Empty Suit, and the alphabetty senior athletic department staff are flushed and the football coaching staff is upgraded, I'll open my wallet. To do so now would be a complete waste of coin as mismanagement reigns at all levels. To me, the big question is, who is going to Flush The Toilet?
Expecting something for nothing is for losers and blowhards.
To build a winning program today takes money.
LOTS AND LOTS of money FROM the alumni and fans
SMU just raised $200 Million to buy seat in the ACC.
USC bought a Heisman Trophy.
Every QB you want has a 7 figure price tag.
If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem.
The University of California has the biggest richest Alumni base in the nation. We don't need one sugar daddy investor. We need thousands of small supporters. A Blue and Gold Crowd Funding Army.
Until people like you wake up, we will be fighting an uphill battle.
Yeah, but any monies to individuals are potentially wasted because of the overreaching regime's pall over the entire program. Until a programs commitment to success is established, a player's disenchantment with the program could cause him to leave. Besides I believe the university needs to prove to us (fans) that athletics are a priority and commit to perpetuating success. Let's see the university make a significant material commitment. Also, I want to see significant purging of the athletics department and an investment in top notch coaching. No more tenured incompetence.
Good writeup again. I think we'll be competitive against both OSU and Utah, but I wouldn't expect to win either. I think we'll win at least one non-Furd game because the opponent takes us lightly and comes out flat, just don't ask me which one. Probably not Oregon though, because they look very strong in every phase.
The concern is they get manhandled in the trenches, especially the Cal O-line. Smith and Whittingham have recruited and developed great players for their systems.
I don't expect us to run much on either of them as both are extremely tough to run on. I think our defense can hold its own against them: we get OSU at home and they don't have an elite passing attack, and Utah has struggled to generate much offense against anybody.
I think you are on to something with the THIS YEAR comment. Given Wilcox's buyout status, lame duck chancellor, upcoming conference change, presumed donor burnout (keeping programs afloat with reduced TV money), and historic strength of the Pac-12, I think they are definitely focusing on '24. Especially with respect to QB selection and development.
Unless Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix go down with high ankle sprains in next week's games and are out for at least five weeks. And Cam Rising doesn't suit up for the Utah game. And Uiagalelei reverts back to his Clemson form and throws four picks next Saturday. Now that's an artificial or contrived solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty if there ever was one.
Despite their record a few College Football analysts I respect have said all season "ASU's offense is a mess, but they have a great defense." I think what we saw last weekend was their defense play up to their billing, and their offense go for broke and make it a game. Like Nick said, they were down 7 in the 4th quarter a week ago against U$C. Would not be surprised if the beat Colorado at home this weekend.
As the season rolls on, every team on our schedule will have their ups and downs. Oregon St at home could be a great opportunity for an upset. A depleted Utah team looking ahead to USC. USC coming to Berkeley after their grudge match against Utah while we're on a bye. UCLA in a meaningless game after they lose to USC.
3 more wins and a Bowl Berth is not out of the question.
I could be wrong but my recollection (yes, it is getting worse every year) is that Wilcox teams come out flat after bye weeks and, shockingly, not at all improved. But geez it sure would be nice for a change and a proper beat down of $C this year.
It's really the best way to let $C know that we will miss them and wish them all the best.
Super......interested in why you think Oregon State is a good opportunity for an upset. They absolutely crushed Cal last year by shutting down Ott early. Ott finished with 20 rushing yards.. Sure, Cal upset Oregon State at home two years ago with at least a competent quarterback in Garbers. Oregon State played so poorly in that game that head coach Jonathan Smith tarmacked his defensive coordinator. Things are soooo different now. Sam Jackson has a 32.1 quarterback ranking (out of a possible 100 points). That is tied for the worst in the conference with one of the two Stanford quarterbacks. For some reference, Oregon State quarterback DJ Uigalellei has an 80.6 ranking and spreads the ball around the field. Cal is currently not capable of doing that.
Besides me being a delusional Cal Bear fan... 🫠
1) Pac-12 After Dark
2) The Beavers lost a lot of that defense from last year
3) Beavers only quality win is against a VERY VERY depleted Utah team. (basically their 2nd string)
4) Pac-12. After. Dark.
Not saying it will happen. But won't be surprised if it does.
and we made a field goal this past game.
I honestly don’t think ASU is as bad of a team as people think.
They were only trailing USC 27-21 in the 4th Q the previous week and ended up losing by just 14 pts.
Plus, they’re a “Nothing to lose” team, making them like a cornered animal - very dangerous.
Not surprised at our QB being harassed all game, but disappointed we didn’t make them pay more for their aggressiveness.
Agree with the article to scheme to our strengths now and develop Sam’s passing game a little longer
Are you saying our team isn't a "nothing to lose" team?
We are an "everything to lose" team. Similar fate but higher consequences.
what do we have to lose this season? Everyone expects us to be a PAC12 bottom feeder along with Furd and the Arizona schools
We should be playing like one but we’re getting held back.
One obvious example is not letting Sam Jackson run more.
Designed runs for Jackson will only limit his playing time. He will get smashed, smashed, smashed. Best to save his running for when he needs to scramble, that is when he will be most effective anyways. Teams will continue to load the box against us cuz we ain't beating anyone with our passing game and OL play.
It is crazy how poor of a product Cal football is. Defense wins championships, offense fills the seats. We are offensive offensively. No one wants to see dat shit!!
Because the designed QB runs we did run were snuffed out and went nowhere. Sadly the runs he did break off were called back due to penalties.
In this game, he was probably more of a decoy to free up others. He did gain about 25 yards running bit in college, a sack is counted as negative rushing yards so the overall stay is negative.
Just saying right now, his mobility needs more prominence in the game and the Coaches should scheme better.
Another stat not fully appreciated: I was at the game and kept track of the TV timeout clock. It was used 17 times for a total of 44.5 minutes! (This does not include 30-second timeouts or halftime.) And they don't start the clock for a good 10 seconds after a timeout is called. How much more time would it have been on ESPN? TV networks are making games more and more unwatchable. Sooner or later the fact that fewer and fewer people have the patience to attend games will translate into fewer and fewer people watching on TV. When will the networks wake up to the fact that they are bludgeoning their own business model?
We counted too and had sixteen but I thought we missed one. It's ridiculous especially when there's less than two minutes of play between commercials. One of those things in sports that really makes me yearn for "the good old days."
Yes, same if not worse for Auburn. I recall an article referencing the crowd at Wembley complaining about "all of the standing around" when the NFL came to London for the first time.
And the irony is the commercials are supposed to pay for the games, but going forward, Cal won't be in line for much of that cash for ~8 years...
Thanks for sharing this information. I'm going to record some of the games and begin watching them after halftime so that I can just fast forward the commercials since I'll never get that time back otherwise.
That's what I do with road games. I record and start watching after about an hour and a quarter. I usually catch up to the game late in the fourth quarter (I also fast forward through commercials and replays of opposing team TDs). I recommend it.
Thank you for pointing this out. It makes these kinds of defensive games so much more unbearable to sit still for and watch, be it at the stadium or on the couch. Damn.
Boy, sure glad NCAA sped up games, apparently, just so more commercials could get squeezed in.
Hypnotic suggestion in background of all college games:
"Media does not control college sports....media does not control college sports..." Et cetera.
Saw the game in person and had a few observations:
We were lucky the devils shot themselves in the foot on 4th down a couple of times with unforced errors, otherwise they win by two scores.
Jackson looks tiny - no wonder he doesn’t throw over the middle very much - even though that look was wide open all game. ASU brought its safeties right up to the LOS on many occasions on obvious passing downs just daring us to throw over the top and we could not (and didn’t try either to keep them honest even).
Ott looks like an NFL player already. I sure hope he sticks with us and doesn’t enter the portal after a 4 or 5 win season this year. I wish we tried the wheel route or throwing to him in space.
The phantom penalties were crushing as they were confusing, especially the 15-yarder on Endries for block below the waist when he literally just fell on his own face and a guy tripped over him. People near me in the stands were in shock while they showed the replay.
Only D linemen that were noticeable was Carlton and sometimes Johnson.
I love this program, but boy, it was painful to watch for stretches on Saturday. I hope they watch the film and think of ways to at least keep defenses honest these next 5 tough games.
I was at the game as well and agree with your observations. There were intermittent periods when we played well, and we did make some good plays, but mostly our offense just could not sustain drives. I did see a bit more diversity in the play calls than the past games. We need to use the speed we have more often and more passes in the middle, as you have pointed out. The defense is good, except our DBs make more mistakes than I remember over the past few years. I left my seat midway through the fourth quarter and watched from up top. It was a chance to move around and get a different view. No matter how I look at it, I still don't get that attempted one man TD play call. Probably never will. I will be at the game this Saturday night. I have no illusions about who will win. But for heaven's sake make it a game guys. I think the players work hard and do not give up, and I admire that. I just don't have much faith in the coaching.
I don’t know why the offense is being limited by the coaches. We are not utilizing the field and “open spaces” at all. There are no runs off tackle, no quick outs, no swing passes, no slants. Just sideline jump balls and runs between the tackles. Opposing defenses know we can’t throw downfield and are taking away Jackson’s legs. So whatever benefit we thought we’d see with his mobility is not going to come to fruition.
We should not still be fighting down to the last play for the win, especially against teams like ASU. We were almost outplayed by a 3rd/4th string QB whose stats were light years better than Sam’s. Spav and Wilcox need to game plan something better to give Sam and chance and perhaps a confidence boost because he looked downright dejected during the post game presser. And the defensive breakdowns are especially frustrating.
you read my mind.
last few years I was so frustrated at the offense doing way too many screen passes and short passes... but this year those seem so non-existent. when we could really use it with the quarterbacks we have to get their confidence going, get some yards and open up running lanes and long throws.
Reading this well written recap of Saturday's game, I am reminded that bad or burned out head coaches do not get better with time (see Joe Kapp 85-86, Tom Holmoe 99-2000 and Jeff Tedford 2013.) Wilcox is dead man walking, but it's the longest walk from the cell to the chamber in the history of college football.
I fully expect Cal to lose all of the next five games to ranked opponents because all those teams have to do is stack the box and shut down Jayden Ott to win. Oregon State held Ott to 20 yards last year and romped to their most decisive win of the year. I think Cal's best chance for a win is against Utah, assuming that Cam Rising is not suiting up. If you watched the Oregon State-Utah game Friday night, you saw a Utah quarterback who is a mirror image of Sam Jackson: terrible footwork in the pocket, locking on primary receivers and jamming missile throws into tight coverage. If I'm Spav, I am dusting off my resume with an escape plan to get out of Dodge on the evening of Nov. 25.
at least Mateen Bhaghani is 100%
Nice article - thank you. My impression of the offense at the moment is that it moves in fits and starts. We don't really have the oxen up front to be a pound it out run team especially against elite D lines like Utah, OSU, and UCLA. All they have to do is stack the box to stop Ott and pressure Sam. He needs to be able to roll out and throw more effectively than he has and not take sacks. Also getting guys in space has either not really been a focus or is not something we can execute. And the continuing failure to block for screens, no matter who the coach is, is maddening.
A stat that matters as much as any: turnover margin. Cal is in the upper half of Pac 12 teams in this category. If Cal's success in this area continues, the Bears will have a chance in some games where the other stats appear daunting.
Turnovers are too random to count on. You can sometimes be in perfect position to strip the ball, or the receiver runs the wrong pattern & you get a pick. But the better the opponent, the better their coaching, the less likely the ball falls your way.
Okay, if I understand you correctly, you’re saying you can’t rely on turnovers going forward. Of course, fluke plays happen all the time; sometimes a double-fumble fluke play turns the tide of a game (Sirmon TD vs. ‘Furd). That being said, there is a reason the Cal defense has taken pride in calling itself “The Takers”. Without the Cal pass rush pressuring Bourguet, for example, no Littlejohn INT occurs. Good defense often leads to turnovers. Your point that “sometimes the ball just falls your way” or a quirky mistake happens that dictates whether a turnover occurs (no one would argue with you, of course this happens), and also that a well-coached team won’t allow it to happen as much, results in kind of a funny argument (you say on the one hand turnovers are in large part random occurrences, implying therefore that having more takeaways than turnovers so far in the season is not a significant/durable predictor of future success, but you point out that good, well coached teams are less prone to it). Okay, well, exactly what Wilcox’s Cal squad throughout his time in Berkeley has tried to be (among other things such as, ahem, a winning team in conference play-still working on achieving that one), is a well-disciplined team that shrinks the game, grinds it out, takes care of the ball and wins the battle of turnovers (sure, many Cal fans might bicker with this approach). Chance does not account for trends, which is where stats come in handy whether I’m counting passing yards, penalties, FG% or turnovers. Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins. Maybe Cal will not be as plus in turnover differential once they’ve played the toughest opposing teams on their schedule (i.e. the next five games). But, FWIW while I’m beating a dead horse here, Oregon State has thrown more interceptions than TD’s over the past three games, and Uliagalelei was pretty prone to turning the ball over while at Clem’s Son. We’ll see if he does more of it on Saturday. Of course, if Cal can’t capitalize on opportunities from any turnovers that do happen, this whole question is moot.
Your discussion is well taken. If hypothetically if a team's defense is never coached in techniques for stripping the ball or playing a wr to high-top, or box out basketball-style to practice takeaways, then they are less likely to happen. So I agree, they are not completely random events. I'm just saying they can't be counted on. And while your point that "Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins" rings true, maybe because in that particular season, the ball did bounce their way.
Thank you, Nick. As usual, you do a great job of summing up the game.
Nick: "Will there be any rabbits pulled out of any hats?"
"Presto!
*RRRRooooaaarrrr!!
musta' been the wrong hat"
-Bullwinkle The Moose
Some observations.
Love Jackson V, but, when I taught Drama in high school, one thing I learned from those hoping to make their big break, besides the pervasive predation in the entertainment industry itself, you can be the best beef steak ever, but if they're looking for a pork chop, you're not gonna' make it. IMHO, Jackson V is loaded with talent, but robbed of height. We want to think his jackrabbit scrambles are just bad habits, but the reality is he scrambles to see. He is the shortest person in the pocket and he can't see. I believe it's that simple, Sam can't see in the pocket. God did not make him to be a pocket passer. He's a great beef steak, but we need a pork chop. All of which makes me wonder how we're not playing to his skills more. Maybe he's best placed as a WR or a RB; we need to get him in space.
One other observation about our schedule, yes, in the ASU game, we got breaks from the football gods and we do not normally get those breaks. Every Greek hero knows the gods are entirely fickle and somewhat indifferent to mortals, so the gods are not a plan. Thinking realistically, I believe we may have peaked and our hopes all come down to minimizing tragedy, rather than tempting the Fates with notions that we will somehow make a big break in two underdog games and actually bowl this season. The Fates love to foil heroic hubris. Meanwhile, I believe Furd showed signs of life against Oregon and, honestly, I think we can expect another tough fight from Furd. There is every possibility that, barring positive changes, we have won our last game this season. We can hope that we change for the better, find our groove, get grace from the gods, but, hope itself, is not a plan.
One last fun fact, it only gets better, for those of us relieved about and looking forward to the soft spots in our new conference, the ACC, thinking it might be a few contenders and a wealth of Vanderbilts, well, it might be a push. If I count rightly, there are six ACC members ranked in the Top Twenty as of now, including Louisville with our former QB, Plummer, slinging it. Let's make plans and changes, first, then do some praying. This season is rabbits out of hats and we should be using this experience to rally for the cultural and practical changes our program needs.
Disagree somewhat about Jackson V, he is robbed of more than height, he's just not a quarterback. His throwing form is woeful, his accuracy is uncalibrated, his judgement is suspect, and he lacks poise. Is he an athlete, yes he is, but he is playing out of position. probably should be a receiver.
Jackson makes just enough good throws to make me think something might be there but right now he’s not a college quarterback.
I guess we can see what we have in Mendoza but going back to Finley after what happened in Seattle is a non-starter.
We have no quarterback. Geez, for an embattled HC that hasn’t tasted success since ‘19, that’s a big problem.
This was always the concern for realistic Cal fans when Wilcox still hadn’t named a starter a week before the opener…it showed Sam was not where he needed to be, something that was suspected at the time but is now completely established beyond a doubt after 4 games.
Even tossing out the Ohio State-induced COVID disaster of a year in 2020, a coach that misses a bowl game for the 3rd straight season in year 7 at a Power 5 school
should be on his way out. Unfortunately, incompetent leadership at the Admin level has consequences and he’s almost certainly getting another year.
They should commit to doing their absolute best to develop Sammy Jax V these past 8 games to see if there is ANY chance he’s the guy in ‘24, this staff’s make-it-or-break-it season.
From what we’ve seen in the first month, though, none of these kids are close to being able to win against the P5 athletes they are set to face. And if Spavital can’t develop him, why TF is he here, because this offense looks a helluva lot like the schittburger mess we saw with Bill Musgrave the past 24 months…which means Wilcox is absolutely the issue.
and someone please stop him from leaning backwards during this throws. he is so scared anytime someone is near him and throws off his back foot. I mean fundamentals!!
I mostly agree with your SJV commentary. He actually reminds me more of Zach Maynard than McIlwain - a D2 talent out of his depth. He's not going to get coached out of his many bad habits within this season, and even that wouldn't be enough for him to play at the required level. Time to cut bait with him. In spite of UW, it has to be Finley. There would be a few more in the explosive plays category had he played this game.
However, I would love to see SJV at wr, could be a DeSean type. I think he's too slight for rb. Somehow his elite speed isn't manifesting itself on scrambles, he seems to get caught too often when trying to turn he corner. Perhaps showcasing his straight line speed at wr would allow him to blossom (assuming he can catch the ball).
During TOs at Washington, I was watching him play catch with someone and he was making 1 handed catches over his head. So I think he has the hands for it. At least a good starting point for it.
You are totally correct that Jackson is getting caught behind the line of scrimmage too often to suggest his escapability is even close to elite. And isn't that why Cal fans were so excited about him when he came here? When you add in the fact he cannot stay in the pocket and make check-downs to open receivers, you have the trainwreck of a passing offense that Cal is in right now. He has a 52% completion rate this year and only seemed to see Hunter in the entire ASU game. Go find that key to the doghouse, coach, and bring Finley back into the picture.
Yes, sometimes you gotta' go with what you're built for.
Enjoyed your post, but I have a slight disagreement about Jackson being loaded with talent. Good quarterbacks at the college and and pro level have the ability to see the field and complete check-downs to open receivers. I read during Fall camp that Spav and his team were trying to get Jackson to stay in the pocket and complete those check-downs the way that Davis Webb did in 2016. To your point, I think we are going to see a lot more designed roll-outs with Jackson going forward.
BTW, what was your favorite book or short story you taught to your students? I have fond memories of English and drama classes in high school because I completely sucked in math and the sciences.
Much to my surprise, I was able to navigate my introductory drama students through Oedipus, which seemed on-point for many students (ba dum tsss). I only taught it for two years, then switched to a speech/debate class and team, which did pretty well, but was not supported by the school, since I did not want to do endless bake sales (i.e. fundraising) on top of the time and energy to build and manage a team. To answer your question, no favorite, but as I have heard said, a directors favorite production is always his current one. As a teacher, I tried to focus on essential acting skills, first, and foremost, then the content would present itself. Our first year, we did Bye Bye Birdie and the second year, we did Grease.
I was the proverbial high school jock, but got talked into participating in one school play, Archibald MacLeish's J.B. I was one of the comforters. Wish I had done more.
I confess I am not familiar with that particular play. Yes, I, too, was a jock in H.S., but gave it up for speech/debate, since I thought I wanted to be a lawyer.
"That’s a credit to Kenny Dillingham, who managed to find ways to move the ball downfield despite fielding a line that couldn’t run block and a QB who couldn’t be counted on to throw the ball downfield."
If only that could be us.
This is the sign of two programs that are moving in opposite directions.
ASU with KD is >>>Cal with JW.
Agreed. Consider when Rashada finds his groove. That'll be something to see.
Cal has historically been a QB school, to wit Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Paul Larson, Joe Kapp, Craig Morton, Steve Bartkowski, Troy Taylor, Nate Longshore, Mike Pawlawski, Gale Gilbert, Rich Campbell, Joe Roth, ad infinitum. HOW THE HELL DID WE END UP WITH THE CURRENT GROUP OF CRAP QBS?
We have two QB's with GREAT potential... they're just very young and inexperienced playing in the toughest conference in the nation. If you want to "win now", the answer is simple:
NIL
Thats how you get great experienced QB's now.
Every QB in the Pac12 is a Portal Player with a big NIL deal.
Caleb, Bo, Penix, Ward, Rising, DJ, Sanders, and de Laura
If you care, if you want to see our roster filled out with more talent at every position, you better have receipts.
www.CalLegends.com
Yes. Look at the ever-contenting big name schools. find out who lost the QB battle, especially if they were beat by someone younger. GRAB THEM. Point at other pac12 QBs who resurrected their career and became better. this team is yours!!
I thought Rising was homegrown.
If not, that explains his hippie hair. 😳
Texas transfer
Well, I'll be.
Your blaming the kids but not a coach who keeps changing the offensive system.
As I have posted before, its talent, brains, physicality, experience, and COACHING, but it all starts with RECRUITING. As the program has deteriorated so has the skill position talent, especially quarterbacking. I'm not blaming the kids, but the QBs on Cal's current roster are not a blue ribbon lot (and the last batch, including Garbers weren't either). As much as I respect and appreciate Wilcox, he is not the guy to lead Cal out of the Wilderness. Also, till Clueless Carol, Empty Suit Jim, and the diversity-before-merit, lackluster, senior athletic department staff are flushed out and replaced by a more capable group, Cal football is screwed. Cal's successful programs (crew, swimming, water polo, rugby) are all led by quasi-independent staffs with extremely capable leaders. These talented, successful sub-regimes within the greater, failed athletic department regime are "right-under-the-administrations-nose" models for Cal's overall athletics recovery.
Your NIL receipts, please
I'm not sending a penny until the Great Purge occurs. When Clueless, Empty Suit, and the alphabetty senior athletic department staff are flushed and the football coaching staff is upgraded, I'll open my wallet. To do so now would be a complete waste of coin as mismanagement reigns at all levels. To me, the big question is, who is going to Flush The Toilet?
Then your opinion doesn't count.
Expecting something for nothing is for losers and blowhards.
To build a winning program today takes money.
LOTS AND LOTS of money FROM the alumni and fans
SMU just raised $200 Million to buy seat in the ACC.
USC bought a Heisman Trophy.
Every QB you want has a 7 figure price tag.
If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem.
The University of California has the biggest richest Alumni base in the nation. We don't need one sugar daddy investor. We need thousands of small supporters. A Blue and Gold Crowd Funding Army.
Until people like you wake up, we will be fighting an uphill battle.
^^^This minus the snark directed at each other.
Specifically:
"We don't need one sugar daddy investor. We need thousands of small supporters. A Blue and Gold Crowd Funding Army."
Screw Uncle Phil.
And the naive shall inherit the earth.
NIL monies do not go to the AD staff for management and disbursement. NIL is mutually exclusive.
Yeah, but any monies to individuals are potentially wasted because of the overreaching regime's pall over the entire program. Until a programs commitment to success is established, a player's disenchantment with the program could cause him to leave. Besides I believe the university needs to prove to us (fans) that athletics are a priority and commit to perpetuating success. Let's see the university make a significant material commitment. Also, I want to see significant purging of the athletics department and an investment in top notch coaching. No more tenured incompetence.
Good writeup again. I think we'll be competitive against both OSU and Utah, but I wouldn't expect to win either. I think we'll win at least one non-Furd game because the opponent takes us lightly and comes out flat, just don't ask me which one. Probably not Oregon though, because they look very strong in every phase.
The concern is they get manhandled in the trenches, especially the Cal O-line. Smith and Whittingham have recruited and developed great players for their systems.
I don't expect us to run much on either of them as both are extremely tough to run on. I think our defense can hold its own against them: we get OSU at home and they don't have an elite passing attack, and Utah has struggled to generate much offense against anybody.
How do we score?
I think you are on to something with the THIS YEAR comment. Given Wilcox's buyout status, lame duck chancellor, upcoming conference change, presumed donor burnout (keeping programs afloat with reduced TV money), and historic strength of the Pac-12, I think they are definitely focusing on '24. Especially with respect to QB selection and development.
On the whole, very discouraging. No deus ex machina in sight.
Unless Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix go down with high ankle sprains in next week's games and are out for at least five weeks. And Cam Rising doesn't suit up for the Utah game. And Uiagalelei reverts back to his Clemson form and throws four picks next Saturday. Now that's an artificial or contrived solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty if there ever was one.
we made a field goal.
we made a field goal.