A stat that matters as much as any: turnover margin. Cal is in the upper half of Pac 12 teams in this category. If Cal's success in this area continues, the Bears will have a chance in some games where the other stats appear daunting.
A stat that matters as much as any: turnover margin. Cal is in the upper half of Pac 12 teams in this category. If Cal's success in this area continues, the Bears will have a chance in some games where the other stats appear daunting.
Turnovers are too random to count on. You can sometimes be in perfect position to strip the ball, or the receiver runs the wrong pattern & you get a pick. But the better the opponent, the better their coaching, the less likely the ball falls your way.
Okay, if I understand you correctly, you’re saying you can’t rely on turnovers going forward. Of course, fluke plays happen all the time; sometimes a double-fumble fluke play turns the tide of a game (Sirmon TD vs. ‘Furd). That being said, there is a reason the Cal defense has taken pride in calling itself “The Takers”. Without the Cal pass rush pressuring Bourguet, for example, no Littlejohn INT occurs. Good defense often leads to turnovers. Your point that “sometimes the ball just falls your way” or a quirky mistake happens that dictates whether a turnover occurs (no one would argue with you, of course this happens), and also that a well-coached team won’t allow it to happen as much, results in kind of a funny argument (you say on the one hand turnovers are in large part random occurrences, implying therefore that having more takeaways than turnovers so far in the season is not a significant/durable predictor of future success, but you point out that good, well coached teams are less prone to it). Okay, well, exactly what Wilcox’s Cal squad throughout his time in Berkeley has tried to be (among other things such as, ahem, a winning team in conference play-still working on achieving that one), is a well-disciplined team that shrinks the game, grinds it out, takes care of the ball and wins the battle of turnovers (sure, many Cal fans might bicker with this approach). Chance does not account for trends, which is where stats come in handy whether I’m counting passing yards, penalties, FG% or turnovers. Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins. Maybe Cal will not be as plus in turnover differential once they’ve played the toughest opposing teams on their schedule (i.e. the next five games). But, FWIW while I’m beating a dead horse here, Oregon State has thrown more interceptions than TD’s over the past three games, and Uliagalelei was pretty prone to turning the ball over while at Clem’s Son. We’ll see if he does more of it on Saturday. Of course, if Cal can’t capitalize on opportunities from any turnovers that do happen, this whole question is moot.
Your discussion is well taken. If hypothetically if a team's defense is never coached in techniques for stripping the ball or playing a wr to high-top, or box out basketball-style to practice takeaways, then they are less likely to happen. So I agree, they are not completely random events. I'm just saying they can't be counted on. And while your point that "Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins" rings true, maybe because in that particular season, the ball did bounce their way.
A stat that matters as much as any: turnover margin. Cal is in the upper half of Pac 12 teams in this category. If Cal's success in this area continues, the Bears will have a chance in some games where the other stats appear daunting.
Turnovers are too random to count on. You can sometimes be in perfect position to strip the ball, or the receiver runs the wrong pattern & you get a pick. But the better the opponent, the better their coaching, the less likely the ball falls your way.
Okay, if I understand you correctly, you’re saying you can’t rely on turnovers going forward. Of course, fluke plays happen all the time; sometimes a double-fumble fluke play turns the tide of a game (Sirmon TD vs. ‘Furd). That being said, there is a reason the Cal defense has taken pride in calling itself “The Takers”. Without the Cal pass rush pressuring Bourguet, for example, no Littlejohn INT occurs. Good defense often leads to turnovers. Your point that “sometimes the ball just falls your way” or a quirky mistake happens that dictates whether a turnover occurs (no one would argue with you, of course this happens), and also that a well-coached team won’t allow it to happen as much, results in kind of a funny argument (you say on the one hand turnovers are in large part random occurrences, implying therefore that having more takeaways than turnovers so far in the season is not a significant/durable predictor of future success, but you point out that good, well coached teams are less prone to it). Okay, well, exactly what Wilcox’s Cal squad throughout his time in Berkeley has tried to be (among other things such as, ahem, a winning team in conference play-still working on achieving that one), is a well-disciplined team that shrinks the game, grinds it out, takes care of the ball and wins the battle of turnovers (sure, many Cal fans might bicker with this approach). Chance does not account for trends, which is where stats come in handy whether I’m counting passing yards, penalties, FG% or turnovers. Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins. Maybe Cal will not be as plus in turnover differential once they’ve played the toughest opposing teams on their schedule (i.e. the next five games). But, FWIW while I’m beating a dead horse here, Oregon State has thrown more interceptions than TD’s over the past three games, and Uliagalelei was pretty prone to turning the ball over while at Clem’s Son. We’ll see if he does more of it on Saturday. Of course, if Cal can’t capitalize on opportunities from any turnovers that do happen, this whole question is moot.
Your discussion is well taken. If hypothetically if a team's defense is never coached in techniques for stripping the ball or playing a wr to high-top, or box out basketball-style to practice takeaways, then they are less likely to happen. So I agree, they are not completely random events. I'm just saying they can't be counted on. And while your point that "Teams that are ranked at season’s end tend to have good turnover margins" rings true, maybe because in that particular season, the ball did bounce their way.