Post-Game Thoughts: UCLA Football

Cal crushes their UC rivals behind a stifling pass rush and absurd special teams play.

David Reese leads the Cal band - photo credit Nick Kranz WOO THAT’S RIGHT

A few weeks ago when Cal lost to USC, I said that there is no such thing as justice or karma in college football. I still firmly believe that.

Cal did not triumph over UCLA in the most cathartic non-Big-Game win since who knows when because the cosmos decided that it owed us something. No, Cal earned this win by being good at football, and UCLA earned this L by being bad at football.

But can a fan be forgiven for pondering cosmic justice when a 23 yard field goal is pushed wide, or when a tipped pass falls into the arms of a safety, or when the seas part for Jaydn Ott’s first ever kickoff return, or when a fumble bounces right into the arms of Michael Luckhurst, who had to endure a nightmare few weeks earlier in the season?

Sure, you can ponder. But what matters is that after UCLA unilaterally took steps to end a rivalry that had been played for 90 consecutive years, it is Cal who ended that rivalry with a win. It was Cal fans who spent Saturday night celebrating in the stands and on the field, and it was UCLA fans who abandoned their team about 3/4ths of the way through the game.

When I said there was no justice, what I mean is that off field events have no connection to on-field results. But sometimes, through sheer coincidence, the on-field results dish out some amount of justice.

The rest will have to wait for next year, when UCLA loses to Iowa 11-10 in the middle of a 5-7 season. For now, you have my permission to revel until next September, while Bruin fans cope and seethe about their floundering football program that won’t fire their coach, and pretend that they earned their way into the Big-10 as if they aren’t just another piece of baggage that USC brought with them.

Offense

Efficiency Report

11 drives: 2 touchdowns, 4 FGA (4-4) , 3 punts, 2 turnovers (2 interceptions), 2.4 points/drive

The primary question here is the extent to which you credit the Cal offense for two turnover-aided touchdown drives that covered 11 and 25 yards respectively. If you discount the 11 yard drive, Cal managed 1.6 points/drive. If you discount both, Cal managed 1.3 points/drive.

This is pretty relevant for grading Cal’s performance. 2.4 points/drive slightly exceeds Cal’s season average of 2.33 points/drive and greatly exceeds the 1.4 (9th best in the country!) UCLA has allowed all season long. 1.3 does not.

It’s probably fair to go with that middle mark. Cal was virtually granted free points thanks to turnover field position, but not free touchdowns, and the offense had to convert difficult 3rd downs in the congested red zone against UCLA’s defense, and that means something.

The line battle was a split decision

And I count that as a win for Cal. Coming into this game, I anticipated that Cal would not be able to create running room for Jaydn Ott, and that UCLA would create enough pass rush pressure to disrupt the Cal passing game. After all, that is what UCLA has done against every team but Oregon State.

Cal didn’t have any success rushing the ball until late in the game when UCLA’s defense was thoroughly demoralized by the self-sabotage from UCLA’s offense and special teams. But Cal was still able to put together first half scoring drives, and convert on short field touchdowns, thanks to a spectacular pass protection effort from Cal’s offensive line to go along with nice plays from Fernando Mendoza and Jeremiah Hunter.

In weird way, I think the THREAT of UCLA pressure had more impact than actual pressure. Cal seemed to enter the game with a plan to get the ball out of Fernando’s hands as quickly as possible on plays that didn’t really have a read, or to move the pocket around and keep Fernando moving in anticipation of inevitable pressure, and Cal’s passing offense seemed out of rhythm as a result. But as the game progressed I think Cal realized that their line could hold up against Latu and company, and Fernando started making plays, and the offense scratched out enough points to make sure that Cal’s dominance in the other two phases resulted in a comfortable win.

And in the end? Just one sack, and a number of plays where Fernando hung in the pocket like a vet and made a play even when getting hit.

Defense

Efficiency Report

10 drives: 1 touchdown, 1 FGA (0-0) , 2 punts, 6 turnovers (2 interceptions, 1 fumble, 3 downs), 0.7 points/drive

Removed: UCLA’s final, pointless, game ending moral-victory-attempt drive that ended the game.

This game must surely stand as one of the greatest bend-but-don’t break defensive performance of all time. UCLA gained 380 total yards and managed 23 first downs, yet one could plausibly argue that the Cal defense could be credited for allowing zero points, as UCLA’s only touchdown came on an 8 yard drive following an interception. Of course, by that logic you should demerit the defense for allowing a field goal attempt that happened to miss, but the larger point is that UCLA moved the ball very efficiently except for the whole ‘scoring points’ thing.

Of course, it’s also fair to point out that UCLA only managed 4.6 yards/play, their 3rd worst mark of the year, and gained a handful of yards and first downs in garbage time, so I don’t want to give you the impression that UCLA was racing down the field only to implode in the red zone for no reason. No, this was a vintage Wilcox defensive performance, which is to say that Cal refused to give up big plays, made UCLA string together long drives to move the ball, then made huge plays when the opportunity presented itself.

And while UCLA’s 4th down failures were influenced by game state, it’s also true that they would’ve been punts instead, so it counts as a stopped drive either way.

A MASSIVE pass rush win

Cal crushed the UCLA offensive line, and that was by a wide margin the biggest reason Cal won this game.

The numbers are wild - 6 sacks, obviously, but also 4 QB hits. PFF credit Cal with pressure on 41% of UCLA’s dropbacks.

The results are wild - knocking Ethan Garbers out of the game, directly forcing a turnover, ending multiple drives.

Maybe I shouldn’t be shocked. Cal’s pass rush has definitively improved as David Reese gradually gained a bigger rotational role and then took over as started on one edge, and UCLA has received iffy play at right tackle and straight up bad play at left tackle. But this level of dominance would have been impressive from ANY team, let alone from a team that didn’t record a single Pac-12 sack until the 5th game of conference play.

Cade Uluave: playmaker with a high ceiling

After taking over as primary MLB following Jackson Sirmon’s season ending injury, Cade Uluave has played slightly less than half of all defensive snaps for the season. And yet, in just half a season, he has collected 6.5 tackles for loss (tied for first on the team), 2 interceptions (tied for first), 2 forced fumbles (tied for second), and 2 fumble recoveries (tied for first). He has been intimately involved in multiple game swinging plays against Wazzu and UCLA.

Mixed in with those massive plays have been unsurprising true freshman moments - missed tackles, coverage gaps, run fit errors. But to state the obvious, you happily accept the downside because the upside has literally won Cal two games.

And long term is where you’re looking. If Cal can develop Uluave such that he’s a more complete, consistent every-down player while still maintaining his big play instincts, then you have the potential all-conference level player this defense desperately needs.

Special Teams

One of the great special teams performances of all time

I honestly cannot remember a better collective special teams performance in Cal history. When the 3rd phase is 4/4 on field goals, returns a kickoff for a touchdown, has two punts downed inside the 20, and recovers a fumble, you’ve got an all-timer.

By FEI’s game score measure*, this was the 2nd best single game special teams performance by any team this year, 2nd only to Saturday’s Texas/Texas Tech game that saw Texas also return a kickoff, plus block a punt, plus go 5/5 on field goals and have a couple other solid punt returns.

*At the risk of being Debbie Downer, this was only the 2nd Cal game of the year to receive a positive special teams game score. Enjoy this performance, celebrate this performance . . . but don’t let it cloud things: Cal must invest in improving special teams performance for next year if this program is going to take a step forward.

Coaching

A pre-season win and a late-season win

In the pre-season, Justin Wilcox desperately needed a solution to six seasons of offensive woes. He made two excellent hires at offensive coordinator and offensive line, and those coaches helped lead an impressive single season turnaround. If Cal can retain both Jake Spavital and Mike Bloesch (and the rest of the offensive brain trust) then there’s going to be a ton of optimism about what the Cal offense can do with a two deep that should be returning a ton of production.

And in the middle of the season, as the Bears sat at 3-6 and seemed more likely to go 4-8 than 6-6, Wilcox and his staff managed to do two things: 1. they kept the entire team locked in an engaged and 2) they stabilized a defense that was struggling badly.

I’m not sure if it was a schematic wrinkle on defense, or a factor of the schedule easing up, or a matter of improved play from guys like David Reese and Ricky Correia, but the defense absolutely improved to complement the offense and allow for a 3-0 end to the season that few envisioned.

As a result, Wilcox will enter an off-season with more positive vibes than any since 2019.

Big Picture

And with that, the Pac-12 died. If Cal had lost I’d be all in my feelings right now, but I’m choosing to save that for later and focus on the joy of a bowl, the joy of sticking it to UCLA as they tried to sneak out the back door, and the joy of an off-season with some optimism.

So: a bowl. Whether it’s the Independence Bowl vs. a 6-6 Big-12 team, or the L.A. Bowl vs. a Mountain West team, the main thing is extra weeks of practice and a fun reward for the players.

So: laughing at UCLA, who are about to lose much of the defensive talent that kept them afloat this year, who appear set for a lame-duck head coach season in 2024, who currently have a recruiting class that currently ranks 16th in their new conference. Who have to travel to Rutgers and have to watch Iowa choke the life out of them in the Rose Bowl next year.

So: an off-season of optimism. Cal fans will dream about an offense that takes a big step forward in year 2 under Spavital, in year 2 with Fernando under center, in year 2 with Mike Bloesch developing linemen. Cal fans will dream about Uluave and Kaleb Elarms-Orr developing into a dominant ILB pairing. Cal fans will dream about a breakthrough season with a schedule that appears vastly more manageable in the ACC. Cal fans will dream about portal additions behind a hopefully engaged donor base sending money to the Cal Legends NIL collective.

I’ll save deeper thoughts about next year til after Cal’s bowl game. For now, it’s time to enjoy the good vibes for as long as they last.