A long time ago, over 27 years ago, before I got married, I bought some stocks. Some of those stocks, including Blockbuster, ended up penny stocks, and then, nothing. One, Corning GLW, held it's value and I hung on to it, because the original prospect was that Corning GLW was tied to a breakthrough in touchscreen glass and would explode....eventually. So far, it has middled and basically is worth about the same as I paid nearly 30 years ago. Middling is a loss, since inflation has surely grown more than that stock.
Six years ago, we invested our emotions and expectations in a new and promising coach and we are middling at best. I am keeping faith, because that's what we Bear fans do, but it's increasingly hard to ignore the stats. While I don't think Cal football is headed for a penny stock, it's definitely on track to middle us to death. IMHO, it's like someone is trying to kill Cal football slowly, by attrition, so, maybe, not entirely JW's fault. Just some thoughts as we continue to mourn, not so much the loss, but how we lost and our continuous middling.
I'm having somewhat similar feelings. It would have been a lot easier for me to accept a loss against a legit WSU team had Cal put up a good fight and more points on the board. The type of loss we experienced on Saturday has been rare in the Wilcox era, and for that I am thankful. I also think that just about every unranked team, and even ranked ones sometimes, experience at least one of these WTF losses each year. I'm really hoping that this game was that loss for Cal.
Obviously, we all wanted to believe that the offensive explosion vs Arizona was a sign that this team had finally turned the corner and we're pretty disappointed that, after 6 years, we look like we're still not there. And given the backdrop of the looming future unknown and what it needs to mean to play in the Pac-12 THIS year, this kind of loss in this year particularly, is very hard to take. Cal is a mediocre team at present, has been a mediocre team for a few years now, and I'm trying to put my feelings about this team into a mediocre state to get through the next two weeks without the temptation of Cal football to get me too high or too low.
I felt like you up until just recently. We are (and have been) one of the worst power5 teams for some time now. At least under Dykes we could hope that if we can get to 60, just maybe… Under Wilcox, while I’m occasionally surprised like with Arizona, the rest of the time I have little hope. The first year of Covid I had really high hopes that we’re obviously dashed (but what a strange year). Then last year I tempered that and was still disappointed with the overall program. Now, with a major improvement with our offensive skill players, we have the same disappointing results - very uncompetitive for the most part. Hard to see where 6-7 wins will come from and likely some bad thumpings. Another 5 win season will doom recruiting and likely lead to transfers. Something has to change quickly and that’s up to Wilcox. If he waits till seasons end then it’s too late and he should go as well. A change is needed.
An unusual and interesting take. I bought Apple stock years ago, right before it tanked, and lost everything, and then Jobs came back...and they changed the world with their technology. This world is unpredictable in ways beyond our reckoning. Not even the stat nerds or Malcolm Gladwell can predict all the variables.
I have had Apple in one of it's lower coaster cycles and made out pretty well.
I like Berkshire Hathaway B far better, but sold it a while ago because of the forecast of a general market crash, which we may be on the cusp of, now. So, now, it's gold and precious metal mutual funds and ETFs. When and if Berkshire goes down, I will buy again.
Yes, it's a casino and, I suppose, my analogy still holds for college football. We're middling and not getting anywhere. We're not even hedged against the inflation of other teams, like Wazzou, improving.
Film write up. My first statement is going to be laughed at by some, but if you watch the film, the O-line did not play that bad. For the first 55 minutes of the game, they did a fair job against a 4 man WASU pass rush in normal situations. And, they did a decent job on run plays.
Let's talk run plays, then pass plays, blitz packages, penalties and Plummer (who played terrible IMHO).
We did a good job on the front four on run plays. Where we broke down was with our 2nd level assignments. The WASU linebackers were fast and often times our guys just didn't know who to pick up when it became 5 vs. 6 or 7. The reads were not working against their fast LB's. But, we still had a number of plays that worked, when we weren't running into an 8 man box.
On pass protection WASU's front four were much better than AZ, but we still did a solid job for the first 54 minutes. Then Coleman got beat twice in a row by going after his guy rather than sitting and being patient. This is when Plummer got hurt. Our O-line gave Plummer 3+ seconds to throw the ball as long as we weren't in third and long or WASU didn't bring 6 in the rush. Also, on a couple of pass plays Jermaine Terry got beat and Keleki Latu got beat like bongo drums with their pass protection.
WASU did bring pressure. When Jack audibled into obvious running plays, WASU brought 8 guys into the box. He did this in one hurry up situation on a 3rd and short and completely fucked the dog. WASU's delayed blitzes were obvious to spot, but Plummer has not been able to pick them up all season. Likewise, when speedy defensive ends line up outside on third and longs, he has to see this and know to check down to a very quick pass.
We had some critical penalties at key times. One was where Plummer scrambled for a big gain and a first down and Coleman was busted for holding. It was a drive killer.
Plummer: In my mind Jack had a tough day and most of the reason why is because he put the team in a tough place with poor field management. He would throw the long ball when his receiver wasn't open. Why? He missed easy throws at critical times. Why? He would put himself in third and longs and not realize blitzes were coming and or speedy defensive ends line up outside were pinning their ears back to come after him. I have heard that Jack is a very smart student of the game. You could have fooled me with his performance against WASU. One thing I noticed about Jack is that he is slow to go through his progressions and he tries to force the ball downfield instead of quickly checking down his reads and delivering the ball to where the defense allows the bast opportunity for success. There was one situation where he had an opportunity to throw a screen and pulled the ball down, turned to run the other way and was sacked for an 11 yard loss by a guy he should have known was coming. Next down was 2nd and 21 and WASU brought the house and he never saw it. He had some easy short throws he missed because he didn't set his feet. Plummer ain't no Jared Goff who would stand in the pocket and wait to the last second to deliver the ball and take the hit. From very early on it was clear that Plummer was running for his life when he didn't need to be. He wasn't setting his feet and as a result he had some bad throws at key times.
In the end, between a couple of key penalties that were drive killers, some bad throws that put us behind the chains, and Jack's inability to see the pressure coming and get rid of the ball, we could not sustain drives. But in the end, Plummer had chances to be a game changer by just managing the game better and he didn't get it done.
I think the o-line has to practice their 2nd level blocking on run plays, TE's need to really practice their pas blocking and Plummer needs to calm down, make his reads, set his feet and deliver the ball. Often times when he waited to pass the ball, defenders followed his eyes and locked onto receivers only to blow up the play. When he completed longer passes he seemed to get rid of the ball quicker. I can solve O-line problems, but I don't know what to do about our QB situation.
Rugbear, always appreciate your analysis and insight. Also massively appreciate the “fucked the dog” line which is amazing and will immediately be worked into my vernacular. Anyway, I would need to go back and re-watch the game to confirm this (and I’m not going to subject myself to that), but it seemed like wazzu was living in our backfield. I think I saw a stat that Ott was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on close to 40% of his carries. Can that be attributed to anything other than poor offensive line play? Are those blitzes that Plummer should recognize and audible to a pass play? Failure to develop a homegrown qb continues to be one of my biggest (of many) gripes with this coaching staff.
Hi Alcalholic (great name btw), I think you are pretty spot on with your observation. Like I said in my post, we were having problems with second level guys, or LB's. We appeared to mostly be able to handle the 4 down defensive linemen, but we had trouble with the extra two in the box and two more outside. Their speed made their numbers very effective against our run. And, there were times they just lined up with 7 or 8 in the box. We had one series before the half where we had a nice gain on 1st down (I think Ott ran for 8). Then Plummer threw a long ball to no one. And then Plummer tried to get a hurry up offense to the line for a quick snap but WASU was ready with 8 guys in the box and they stuffed us. Plummer should have either called an audible or a time out in this critical situation. And on pass plays we pretty much had the same situation. For the most part we were able to give Plummer 3 seconds and a few tenths before he was hurried, as long as we were blocking the 4 down (until that last 5 minutes). But when they brought 5 or more or on 2nd and 21 or 3rd and 8, they pinned their ears back, we were toast. Again, Plummer needs to see this and get it to the hot read post haste. The longer he waited to flip it out to Ott or a receiver in the flat, the better WASU reacted.
And my use of 'fucked the dog' is a way of emphatically saying 'screwed the pooch'. Fucking the dog seems to be a better way of conveying the message that someone really messed up. ;-)
Great analysis. Thanks Rug! Is the TE just an afterthought in this scheme right now?
I’ve noticed with Plummer that sometimes you can see just how he won the starting job at a B1G school with a solid reputation like Purdue…and then you can absolutely see how he subsequently lost the job.
I’m disheartened by the number of pass plays downfield that just have zero chance at being made…either the pass is way overthrown, or it’s out of bounds…there’s literally no chance the receiver can even make a play on it…almost like a bad waste pitch in baseball. J. Michael and Hunter are big, physical receivers - give them a chance to win a 1-on-1 matchup and make a play.
Its soooo frustrating to me that my son, Ashton Hayes, has had ONE SINGLE PLAY since the beginning of the year??? He ran for 14 yards! If anyone took a look at his highschool stats and being the most recruited RB in the history of NV football! His highlight reels show his talent and WHY he isn't being utilized on this team is BS!!! EVERY OTHER FRESHMAN PLAY AND AREN'T EVEN AS GOOD?!? I totally believe he's being punished for choosing Nebraska over Cal at first and then he decommits from Nebraska to go to Cal but nothing has been the same since his choice of going to Nebraska over Cal... It's completely obvious. My son single handedly took teams to state championships???? Has an abundance of national and state recognition... Awards kids dream of receiving?!? He has an actual huge fan base that is no longer supporting Cal bc they are so mad he isn't being utilized on the team when he is an incredible athlete! I'm NOT just saying this bc he's my son. His stats since he was SEVEN YEARS OLD proves this! He didn't work so hard his entire life, eating only healthy food since age 12, never went to patties or stayed at friends houses bc he was training 7 days a week, worked so hard in school to having literally NEVER a B on a report card... EVER... Put his entire life aside and Sacrifice his entire childhood and teen years TO SIT ON A BENCH!!!!! When sports illustrated follows you and does articles on you as a hs student... You're doing something right, right???? He had sooooooooo many other offers from top schools and in the big 10 too and chose this school due to the "prior relationships " he made with the coaches and players... When the other schools would have LOVED to have him and PLAY HIM LIKE CAL "MADE HIM THINK" WAS GOING TO HAPPEN! *** One single play***
Unbelievable... And not fair to him... Especially as stated before that all the other freshmans have been able to play?!?! And stats don't even compare to Ashton's!!!? I'm not going to listen to anyone's bs on why he isn't playing... Bc I know and so does everyone else. With that being said I hope my son chooses to go somewhere else next year bc Cal is NOT where he belongs...
I'm afraid that being a parent of a D1 athlete is often an exercise in frustration because we all know what our kids can do, but don't control their playing time. For what it's worth, I have two kids that played D1 sports, both of whom, in my humbly biased opinion, deserved more playing time than they were receiving at some point in their 4 college years, one of whom considered transferring. In the end they both got the playing time they deserved as their patience was rewarded with some of the best season's their schools had ever seen, and neither would do anything different if they could re-do it.
I would also note, if a coach guarantees someone "will be a starter," there is no way they can say that with any authority until they make decisions based on practice, whether that's what he WAS told or what someone else will tell him. I'd be wary if that's the message you are hearing from elsewhere. Best of luck from one parent to another; we're all looking forward to seeing Ashton's speed on the field.
I'm so sorry with your frustration, Momma Hayes. I'm a father of two boys myself and so I understand the whole "Support my kid" feelings. I have no insights or ideas on why Ashton isn't getting played, but hope he is able to show his talents soon. I will say as a Cal alumni that there are many good reasons to attend UC Berkeley beyond football, and that degree opens doors the rest of our lives. That's small consolation if you believe your son has NFL ability, but we know only a small % of college players make the league. No excuses, I'm just saying that choosing Cal is different than choosing Nowhere State because of the academics that benefit us so much.
So best wishes to Ashton, and I would love nothing more than to see him running wild down the field for a score!
I hope we get to see a lot of Ashton in the backfield. His run was quite impressive. I understand what you are saying as a parent. My son's last year of Little League where he played catcher he led the league in home runs and everybody said, including the coaches and even opposing coaches that he would be on the All Star team. When it came time to nominate the players the manager picked his son who played shortstop who wasn't as good. So that was tough to deal with. The situation isn't exactly the same but I can see where you are coming from. I do think that Cal has a number of promising backs including Ashton. I agree with the others that a Cal degree opens up doors and pays lifelong dividends, which you can keep with you even after your playing days.
Along these lines I was so psyched to see Evan Weaver at the Coug game. Got to speak with him a few moments and express my appreciation for all he did as a player. He was decked out in Cal gear. We know his story that he has been unable to land with a playing spot on an NFL team despite being a monstrously good college player. One of the national leaders in tackles and a game changer extraordinaire. Love that guy. Don't know if he finished his Cal degree but hope he did and he is likely in a place in his life where he is relying on that degree to forge his adult life.
You should. He was both a top player in the whole nation and a first rate interview. The kind of guy you had to cheer for because he was all about football and team.
Nah. It was just a quick chat. He walked by a second time toward the end when we had crapped the bed and I called out "Hey Evan, can you suit up?" and he yelled back enthusiastically "I wish!" Love that guy.
Oh wow! I'm so sorry to hear that! Especially for your son. It's unbelievable to me how the politics work in things. I despise it! Your son obviously deserved that spot and unfairly did not get it!!! Ughhhh
As for Ashton... He could play special teams or free safety or DEnd... He doesn't HAVE TO be a RB position??? He is awesome at all I stated. Being benched is insulting and unfair. Especially KNOWING he had starting RB positions elsewhere. And the fact he was told way differently in the beginning and where he'd be upon commitment to Cal. Extremely dissatisfied and disappointed in the coaching deceitfulness to him and the family and fans... Smh
Thank you for your comment and kind words! Yes, the academic side there is great... But if that was his main concern he should of taken his Stanford scholarship offer... Ughhh lol
Totally. Wasn't meaning to be a smart ass (maybe a little one, just not a giant jerky one). We just don't like Stanford! Am rooting for Ashton and hope it is here that his college career prospers!
Thank you for the comment. I appreciate you taking the time to look him up and get to know him if he plans on staying... He's a great kid with so much to offer. And yes, the team has all great Rbs... Not denying that at all whatsoever... Just saying stats wise and proof of his gift of speed and reading plays as they Happen and finding those holes and getting to the outside puts him as an asset to a team. Being stuck on a bench when he deserves just as much field time AS ALL THE OTHER FRESHMAN RBS isn't fair and isn't giving him any experience with college players or satisfying an urge to want to play SO VERY BAD...
That's really interesting!! I didn't realize that about the 4 games! I'll definitely let him know! He at one point was a 4.1 but last I knew he was a 4.4 ofc
Your frustration is totally understandable, and I'm sure you justifiably think the world of your son. He seems like a really hard-working, intelligent and talented kid with a bright future. I saw an interview with him back in August and he was talking about this being the first time with a real playbook and needing to learn it, and needing to improve his pass blocking skills. He looks like a dynamic athlete, and I'm sure once he's up to speed and continues to develop, he will have the opportunity to demonstrate his talent on the field on Saturdays. Even highly talented freshmen sometimes take awhile to fully crack the rotation. At RB, even some of the upperclassmen, more experienced guys like Brooks and Moore haven't been able to get a ton of game snaps since the emergence of Ott. I think he's just got to keep grinding. The fact that he already got in on a play and was successful should hopefully bode well for more opportunities in the future if he keeps at it.
I’m assuming your son got a scholarship and full ride to play football at Cal.
If so, then not only would he graduate from one the best universities in the world, but with no or very little debt.
I’m sure there are thousands of HS kids applying the Berkeley right now who would love to be in his position.
My son is going through the process of busting his you-know-what with grades, extra curriculars and summer studies to apply to colleges.
Even with his 4.0 and great resume, he’ll still only have a slim chance to get in to Berkeley.
So tell your son to take advantage of this amazing opportunity at Cal and play the long game so he can have a lasting career whenever his football ends.
Whew boy this is a doozy. Angel, the coaches are going to play the guys that they believe give them the best chance to win. While I would love nothing more than to heap criticism on this coaching staff (and I have on virtually every thread on W4C since this season began), one thing they’re not doing is “benching” guys as some sort of childish retaliation for previous commitments to other schools. Keep in mind Jaydyn Ott de-committed from Cal and opened up his recruitment before finally signing with the Bears, and he’s now the starter. Ashton is a baller, and I was stoked when he signed with Cal - we need more guys from Northern California and northern Nevada who stay home and play for Cal, but he’s not playing right now because the guy at the top of the depth chart is putting up record-breaking numbers for a freshman at Cal. And my guess is that the coaches have determined that Ashton doesn’t yet do anything significantly better than the upperclassmen ahead of him on the depth chart that would warrant burning his redshirt. This isn’t an indictment against him, it’s just smart management of his eligibility. The best thing he can keep doing is working his ass off, like he clearly has for his entire life, and his time will come. I’m sure the coaches told him there would be opportunities to play early, and I don’t think they were lying, Ott just emerged from the pack. I hope Ashton is patient and keeps working hard; Cal is a special place and I’d hate to see him leave.
Be sure to be honest with the next school that your son gets equal carries or he walks. See how that goes for him. Coaching is a small world Angel. You're not doing your son any favors here.
Yes he was offered lots of scholarships. And maybe I'm not doing my son "any favors here" but people are looking him up and when he is able to play will know about him right? Your sarcasm and irritation in your responses aren't doing yourself any favors as well. I'm not worried about my son. He's set no matter what. I'm just unimpressed with what I knew prior to him accepting and after acceptance. I'm perfectly within my rights as a parent, friend, fan, or anyone for that matter upset about what I know and see going on. Take care Mr Cold Hard truth. Lol
Agreed. And while it may be true that Musgrave couldn't scheme his way out of it, he sure as hell didn't have to retain Angus in the offseason or call 3rd and 9 pass plays for 2 yards. Leadership means you are responsible for what happens. Wilcox is responsible for everything on offense. Musgrave is responsible for everything on offense.
Agreed. He may not be able to scheme out of it but he sure as hell doesn't need to actively scheme into it... and I mean that literally. We literally had a bunch of plays that went right into our O-line that wasn't getting any push at all.
Thanks for the article, Nick! Rough to read, though.
Anyone else notice that Tulane won at Houston Friday night with a 3rd string QB throwing the ball all around? F-ing Tulane…a 3rd stringer…TULANE. It IS possible.
We’re then treated to THAT offensive mess on the Palouse, in year 6, where Cal went 3 and out 5 of 12 drives and turned a winnable performance by the D into yet another loss.
I am having a harder and harder time seeing a path to Wilcox being the answer at Cal, people. Great guy, good coordinator…but the excuses grow tiresome.
This was a total bummer, but sometimes you have a crap game on the road in conference play. Especially when the other team has a D as good as Wazzu’s. It totally blows, but I am not ready to write the season off yet. We have seen really good Cal teams lay an egg in conference road games before. It does happen.
Would like to see more of Milner if we are in a blowout either way…
Not to argue semantics (but what the hell else do we have to do for the next two weeks), but 2-13 conference games outside CA = 13%
With 2 more conference road games out of CA, worst JW can do this year is bring that % down to 2-15 for 12%, or bring it up to 4-13 for 24%. Seems the expectation is going to bring him to 3-14 for 18%. So by winning at CO, but not at OSU (i.e. the expected outcome) his win percentage for conference games outside CA will go up by 5%.
They do, however, show individual game results and where they were played. I went year by year and tallied road game results and got 5-16. Hence the "by my count" disclaimer.
Last week seemed encouraging, then we get the usual comedown that's happened under Wilcox: a dispiriting loss in which Cal can't move the ball at all. Sigh.
Catching up this evening on all the post game comments, etc. from various sources. Been camping/fishing all week.
Listened from car's Sirius XM whilst I sat in camp chair Clicked it off at half time, muttering to myself and went fishing with no desire to check final score until Sunday morning.
Sounds like a solid weekend, ak, and an excellent decision at half.
Now would probably be a good time for me to take the same approach to Cal football, at least under Wilcox, that I took with the game of golf: namely, take 2 weeks off and then give it up forever….
I think it's time to stop saying that Wilcox should be supported because he is a good person and an upstanding citizen. The way I see it, you can carve out about 20% of his salary, or a million bucks a year, to be there for your players and make there they go to class. He is undoubtedly winning there. The other 80%, or 4 mil, has to be devoted to the business side of the equation. That part is hiring competent and relevant coaches and devising schemes that that will make your team fun to watch, put butts in the seats and win often enough to satisfy the fan base. In season 6, Wilcox is taking a 16-26 conference record into the rest of the season with very little chance of going to bowl game while most of the teams in the conference are on the rise and playing entertaining football.
Viewed in that context, Wilcox' contract extension last year was unforgiveable, and I said so in many posts when it happened. He should have been sitting on a very warm seat this year. If so, he might have shown more motivation to change the program instead of trotting the same ol' team that gets you one or two feel good wins (Arizona this year, Oregon State last year, USC and Washington in 18) but a lot more dispiriting losses like last week.
The extension was absolutely baffling at the time…tho a critic of Wilcox, I am actually glad they didn’t fire him. BUT extending him was mind bogglingly puzzling, and SO f-ing on brand for Knowlton, who blames COVID-19 for ALL of the ills affecting his department. Doesn’t matter that Wilcox’s offenses have been schitt for his entire tenure.
Betcha Wilcox is relieved he got that extension penned before the rash of firings around college football this year. The Herm Edwards and Karl Dorrell firings are not so surprising, but Paul Chryst? The man had a 67-26 record as head coach at Wisconsin and got the boot after a 2-3 start this season. Wisconsin of all places, where Wilcox hatched the idea of running a Power 5 team with a contain defense and a vanilla offense well suited for Autumn falls in northern Iowa.
Off the top of my head George Cortez, Mike Dunbar, Frank Cignetti, Andy Ludwig, and Jim Michalzik were OCs under Tedford.
Under Dykes, Tony Franklin was really stubborn and he ran his own offense not Dykes'. I don't know how much freedom Jake Spavital had in his only year.
Furd has not been good this season at all. Unless you count the Colgate game (and you shouldn't), they haven't been good for more than a year. I mean that literally . . . their last win over an FBS opponent was beating Oregon on October 2 last year.
Ok, my Monday take. Who else here believes what we will hear tomorrow from Wilcox and Musgrave is that they have had good practices and are doing good work to address the problems on Saturday? I realize that is normal, but I'm to the point where little else from some dramatic news is going to satisfy me. I watched the 2nd half of the game again, and it's appalling how lame our Oline play was, and the play calling and schemes given the poor Oline play. At this point, even wins over CO and Furd will do nothing for me. It's beat someone good, on the road, or it's truly just the same old.
Thanks for ruining my Monday morning, despite (to quote My Cousin Vinny) being "dead-on balls accurate".
What IS Posi-traction?
A long time ago, over 27 years ago, before I got married, I bought some stocks. Some of those stocks, including Blockbuster, ended up penny stocks, and then, nothing. One, Corning GLW, held it's value and I hung on to it, because the original prospect was that Corning GLW was tied to a breakthrough in touchscreen glass and would explode....eventually. So far, it has middled and basically is worth about the same as I paid nearly 30 years ago. Middling is a loss, since inflation has surely grown more than that stock.
Six years ago, we invested our emotions and expectations in a new and promising coach and we are middling at best. I am keeping faith, because that's what we Bear fans do, but it's increasingly hard to ignore the stats. While I don't think Cal football is headed for a penny stock, it's definitely on track to middle us to death. IMHO, it's like someone is trying to kill Cal football slowly, by attrition, so, maybe, not entirely JW's fault. Just some thoughts as we continue to mourn, not so much the loss, but how we lost and our continuous middling.
I'm having somewhat similar feelings. It would have been a lot easier for me to accept a loss against a legit WSU team had Cal put up a good fight and more points on the board. The type of loss we experienced on Saturday has been rare in the Wilcox era, and for that I am thankful. I also think that just about every unranked team, and even ranked ones sometimes, experience at least one of these WTF losses each year. I'm really hoping that this game was that loss for Cal.
Obviously, we all wanted to believe that the offensive explosion vs Arizona was a sign that this team had finally turned the corner and we're pretty disappointed that, after 6 years, we look like we're still not there. And given the backdrop of the looming future unknown and what it needs to mean to play in the Pac-12 THIS year, this kind of loss in this year particularly, is very hard to take. Cal is a mediocre team at present, has been a mediocre team for a few years now, and I'm trying to put my feelings about this team into a mediocre state to get through the next two weeks without the temptation of Cal football to get me too high or too low.
I felt like you up until just recently. We are (and have been) one of the worst power5 teams for some time now. At least under Dykes we could hope that if we can get to 60, just maybe… Under Wilcox, while I’m occasionally surprised like with Arizona, the rest of the time I have little hope. The first year of Covid I had really high hopes that we’re obviously dashed (but what a strange year). Then last year I tempered that and was still disappointed with the overall program. Now, with a major improvement with our offensive skill players, we have the same disappointing results - very uncompetitive for the most part. Hard to see where 6-7 wins will come from and likely some bad thumpings. Another 5 win season will doom recruiting and likely lead to transfers. Something has to change quickly and that’s up to Wilcox. If he waits till seasons end then it’s too late and he should go as well. A change is needed.
An unusual and interesting take. I bought Apple stock years ago, right before it tanked, and lost everything, and then Jobs came back...and they changed the world with their technology. This world is unpredictable in ways beyond our reckoning. Not even the stat nerds or Malcolm Gladwell can predict all the variables.
Apple had a rep for rollercoastering.
Almost by design. ;)
I have had Apple in one of it's lower coaster cycles and made out pretty well.
I like Berkshire Hathaway B far better, but sold it a while ago because of the forecast of a general market crash, which we may be on the cusp of, now. So, now, it's gold and precious metal mutual funds and ETFs. When and if Berkshire goes down, I will buy again.
Yes, it's a casino and, I suppose, my analogy still holds for college football. We're middling and not getting anywhere. We're not even hedged against the inflation of other teams, like Wazzou, improving.
Get rid of Musgrave and the OL coach. Find some young, inspiring, intelligent coaches from smaller schools/lower divisions.
Film write up. My first statement is going to be laughed at by some, but if you watch the film, the O-line did not play that bad. For the first 55 minutes of the game, they did a fair job against a 4 man WASU pass rush in normal situations. And, they did a decent job on run plays.
Let's talk run plays, then pass plays, blitz packages, penalties and Plummer (who played terrible IMHO).
We did a good job on the front four on run plays. Where we broke down was with our 2nd level assignments. The WASU linebackers were fast and often times our guys just didn't know who to pick up when it became 5 vs. 6 or 7. The reads were not working against their fast LB's. But, we still had a number of plays that worked, when we weren't running into an 8 man box.
On pass protection WASU's front four were much better than AZ, but we still did a solid job for the first 54 minutes. Then Coleman got beat twice in a row by going after his guy rather than sitting and being patient. This is when Plummer got hurt. Our O-line gave Plummer 3+ seconds to throw the ball as long as we weren't in third and long or WASU didn't bring 6 in the rush. Also, on a couple of pass plays Jermaine Terry got beat and Keleki Latu got beat like bongo drums with their pass protection.
WASU did bring pressure. When Jack audibled into obvious running plays, WASU brought 8 guys into the box. He did this in one hurry up situation on a 3rd and short and completely fucked the dog. WASU's delayed blitzes were obvious to spot, but Plummer has not been able to pick them up all season. Likewise, when speedy defensive ends line up outside on third and longs, he has to see this and know to check down to a very quick pass.
We had some critical penalties at key times. One was where Plummer scrambled for a big gain and a first down and Coleman was busted for holding. It was a drive killer.
Plummer: In my mind Jack had a tough day and most of the reason why is because he put the team in a tough place with poor field management. He would throw the long ball when his receiver wasn't open. Why? He missed easy throws at critical times. Why? He would put himself in third and longs and not realize blitzes were coming and or speedy defensive ends line up outside were pinning their ears back to come after him. I have heard that Jack is a very smart student of the game. You could have fooled me with his performance against WASU. One thing I noticed about Jack is that he is slow to go through his progressions and he tries to force the ball downfield instead of quickly checking down his reads and delivering the ball to where the defense allows the bast opportunity for success. There was one situation where he had an opportunity to throw a screen and pulled the ball down, turned to run the other way and was sacked for an 11 yard loss by a guy he should have known was coming. Next down was 2nd and 21 and WASU brought the house and he never saw it. He had some easy short throws he missed because he didn't set his feet. Plummer ain't no Jared Goff who would stand in the pocket and wait to the last second to deliver the ball and take the hit. From very early on it was clear that Plummer was running for his life when he didn't need to be. He wasn't setting his feet and as a result he had some bad throws at key times.
In the end, between a couple of key penalties that were drive killers, some bad throws that put us behind the chains, and Jack's inability to see the pressure coming and get rid of the ball, we could not sustain drives. But in the end, Plummer had chances to be a game changer by just managing the game better and he didn't get it done.
I think the o-line has to practice their 2nd level blocking on run plays, TE's need to really practice their pas blocking and Plummer needs to calm down, make his reads, set his feet and deliver the ball. Often times when he waited to pass the ball, defenders followed his eyes and locked onto receivers only to blow up the play. When he completed longer passes he seemed to get rid of the ball quicker. I can solve O-line problems, but I don't know what to do about our QB situation.
Rugbear, always appreciate your analysis and insight. Also massively appreciate the “fucked the dog” line which is amazing and will immediately be worked into my vernacular. Anyway, I would need to go back and re-watch the game to confirm this (and I’m not going to subject myself to that), but it seemed like wazzu was living in our backfield. I think I saw a stat that Ott was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on close to 40% of his carries. Can that be attributed to anything other than poor offensive line play? Are those blitzes that Plummer should recognize and audible to a pass play? Failure to develop a homegrown qb continues to be one of my biggest (of many) gripes with this coaching staff.
Hi Alcalholic (great name btw), I think you are pretty spot on with your observation. Like I said in my post, we were having problems with second level guys, or LB's. We appeared to mostly be able to handle the 4 down defensive linemen, but we had trouble with the extra two in the box and two more outside. Their speed made their numbers very effective against our run. And, there were times they just lined up with 7 or 8 in the box. We had one series before the half where we had a nice gain on 1st down (I think Ott ran for 8). Then Plummer threw a long ball to no one. And then Plummer tried to get a hurry up offense to the line for a quick snap but WASU was ready with 8 guys in the box and they stuffed us. Plummer should have either called an audible or a time out in this critical situation. And on pass plays we pretty much had the same situation. For the most part we were able to give Plummer 3 seconds and a few tenths before he was hurried, as long as we were blocking the 4 down (until that last 5 minutes). But when they brought 5 or more or on 2nd and 21 or 3rd and 8, they pinned their ears back, we were toast. Again, Plummer needs to see this and get it to the hot read post haste. The longer he waited to flip it out to Ott or a receiver in the flat, the better WASU reacted.
And my use of 'fucked the dog' is a way of emphatically saying 'screwed the pooch'. Fucking the dog seems to be a better way of conveying the message that someone really messed up. ;-)
Great analysis. Thanks Rug! Is the TE just an afterthought in this scheme right now?
I’ve noticed with Plummer that sometimes you can see just how he won the starting job at a B1G school with a solid reputation like Purdue…and then you can absolutely see how he subsequently lost the job.
I’m disheartened by the number of pass plays downfield that just have zero chance at being made…either the pass is way overthrown, or it’s out of bounds…there’s literally no chance the receiver can even make a play on it…almost like a bad waste pitch in baseball. J. Michael and Hunter are big, physical receivers - give them a chance to win a 1-on-1 matchup and make a play.
Its soooo frustrating to me that my son, Ashton Hayes, has had ONE SINGLE PLAY since the beginning of the year??? He ran for 14 yards! If anyone took a look at his highschool stats and being the most recruited RB in the history of NV football! His highlight reels show his talent and WHY he isn't being utilized on this team is BS!!! EVERY OTHER FRESHMAN PLAY AND AREN'T EVEN AS GOOD?!? I totally believe he's being punished for choosing Nebraska over Cal at first and then he decommits from Nebraska to go to Cal but nothing has been the same since his choice of going to Nebraska over Cal... It's completely obvious. My son single handedly took teams to state championships???? Has an abundance of national and state recognition... Awards kids dream of receiving?!? He has an actual huge fan base that is no longer supporting Cal bc they are so mad he isn't being utilized on the team when he is an incredible athlete! I'm NOT just saying this bc he's my son. His stats since he was SEVEN YEARS OLD proves this! He didn't work so hard his entire life, eating only healthy food since age 12, never went to patties or stayed at friends houses bc he was training 7 days a week, worked so hard in school to having literally NEVER a B on a report card... EVER... Put his entire life aside and Sacrifice his entire childhood and teen years TO SIT ON A BENCH!!!!! When sports illustrated follows you and does articles on you as a hs student... You're doing something right, right???? He had sooooooooo many other offers from top schools and in the big 10 too and chose this school due to the "prior relationships " he made with the coaches and players... When the other schools would have LOVED to have him and PLAY HIM LIKE CAL "MADE HIM THINK" WAS GOING TO HAPPEN! *** One single play***
Unbelievable... And not fair to him... Especially as stated before that all the other freshmans have been able to play?!?! And stats don't even compare to Ashton's!!!? I'm not going to listen to anyone's bs on why he isn't playing... Bc I know and so does everyone else. With that being said I hope my son chooses to go somewhere else next year bc Cal is NOT where he belongs...
I'm afraid that being a parent of a D1 athlete is often an exercise in frustration because we all know what our kids can do, but don't control their playing time. For what it's worth, I have two kids that played D1 sports, both of whom, in my humbly biased opinion, deserved more playing time than they were receiving at some point in their 4 college years, one of whom considered transferring. In the end they both got the playing time they deserved as their patience was rewarded with some of the best season's their schools had ever seen, and neither would do anything different if they could re-do it.
I would also note, if a coach guarantees someone "will be a starter," there is no way they can say that with any authority until they make decisions based on practice, whether that's what he WAS told or what someone else will tell him. I'd be wary if that's the message you are hearing from elsewhere. Best of luck from one parent to another; we're all looking forward to seeing Ashton's speed on the field.
Well said. Thank you so much for your time and personal experiences to respond to my comment. Much appreciated!
I'm so sorry with your frustration, Momma Hayes. I'm a father of two boys myself and so I understand the whole "Support my kid" feelings. I have no insights or ideas on why Ashton isn't getting played, but hope he is able to show his talents soon. I will say as a Cal alumni that there are many good reasons to attend UC Berkeley beyond football, and that degree opens doors the rest of our lives. That's small consolation if you believe your son has NFL ability, but we know only a small % of college players make the league. No excuses, I'm just saying that choosing Cal is different than choosing Nowhere State because of the academics that benefit us so much.
So best wishes to Ashton, and I would love nothing more than to see him running wild down the field for a score!
I hope we get to see a lot of Ashton in the backfield. His run was quite impressive. I understand what you are saying as a parent. My son's last year of Little League where he played catcher he led the league in home runs and everybody said, including the coaches and even opposing coaches that he would be on the All Star team. When it came time to nominate the players the manager picked his son who played shortstop who wasn't as good. So that was tough to deal with. The situation isn't exactly the same but I can see where you are coming from. I do think that Cal has a number of promising backs including Ashton. I agree with the others that a Cal degree opens up doors and pays lifelong dividends, which you can keep with you even after your playing days.
Along these lines I was so psyched to see Evan Weaver at the Coug game. Got to speak with him a few moments and express my appreciation for all he did as a player. He was decked out in Cal gear. We know his story that he has been unable to land with a playing spot on an NFL team despite being a monstrously good college player. One of the national leaders in tackles and a game changer extraordinaire. Love that guy. Don't know if he finished his Cal degree but hope he did and he is likely in a place in his life where he is relying on that degree to forge his adult life.
Really??? I'm going to look him up!
You should. He was both a top player in the whole nation and a first rate interview. The kind of guy you had to cheer for because he was all about football and team.
Nah. It was just a quick chat. He walked by a second time toward the end when we had crapped the bed and I called out "Hey Evan, can you suit up?" and he yelled back enthusiastically "I wish!" Love that guy.
Oh wow! I'm so sorry to hear that! Especially for your son. It's unbelievable to me how the politics work in things. I despise it! Your son obviously deserved that spot and unfairly did not get it!!! Ughhhh
As for Ashton... He could play special teams or free safety or DEnd... He doesn't HAVE TO be a RB position??? He is awesome at all I stated. Being benched is insulting and unfair. Especially KNOWING he had starting RB positions elsewhere. And the fact he was told way differently in the beginning and where he'd be upon commitment to Cal. Extremely dissatisfied and disappointed in the coaching deceitfulness to him and the family and fans... Smh
Thank you for your comment and kind words! Yes, the academic side there is great... But if that was his main concern he should of taken his Stanford scholarship offer... Ughhh lol
I hope you understand that Furd comment won't get a lot of sympathy here. Take off those red thoughts!!
Nah but thanks for the suggestion. Not asking for sympathy. Not one bit. Was a post regarding my frustration with the FACTS there buddy. 😉
Totally. Wasn't meaning to be a smart ass (maybe a little one, just not a giant jerky one). We just don't like Stanford! Am rooting for Ashton and hope it is here that his college career prospers!
You can just type Ashton Hayes football into Google and you'll have thousands of things to read or hit the video tab or news... It's pretty damn cool.
Thank you for the comment. I appreciate you taking the time to look him up and get to know him if he plans on staying... He's a great kid with so much to offer. And yes, the team has all great Rbs... Not denying that at all whatsoever... Just saying stats wise and proof of his gift of speed and reading plays as they Happen and finding those holes and getting to the outside puts him as an asset to a team. Being stuck on a bench when he deserves just as much field time AS ALL THE OTHER FRESHMAN RBS isn't fair and isn't giving him any experience with college players or satisfying an urge to want to play SO VERY BAD...
That's really interesting!! I didn't realize that about the 4 games! I'll definitely let him know! He at one point was a 4.1 but last I knew he was a 4.4 ofc
Yes, if I understand right, most of the Freshmen that are playing, aside from Jayden Ott, are other positions where Cal has less back up players.
Maybe so sometimes... But I see them often in the RB position.
Your frustration is totally understandable, and I'm sure you justifiably think the world of your son. He seems like a really hard-working, intelligent and talented kid with a bright future. I saw an interview with him back in August and he was talking about this being the first time with a real playbook and needing to learn it, and needing to improve his pass blocking skills. He looks like a dynamic athlete, and I'm sure once he's up to speed and continues to develop, he will have the opportunity to demonstrate his talent on the field on Saturdays. Even highly talented freshmen sometimes take awhile to fully crack the rotation. At RB, even some of the upperclassmen, more experienced guys like Brooks and Moore haven't been able to get a ton of game snaps since the emergence of Ott. I think he's just got to keep grinding. The fact that he already got in on a play and was successful should hopefully bode well for more opportunities in the future if he keeps at it.
Play the long game.
I’m assuming your son got a scholarship and full ride to play football at Cal.
If so, then not only would he graduate from one the best universities in the world, but with no or very little debt.
I’m sure there are thousands of HS kids applying the Berkeley right now who would love to be in his position.
My son is going through the process of busting his you-know-what with grades, extra curriculars and summer studies to apply to colleges.
Even with his 4.0 and great resume, he’ll still only have a slim chance to get in to Berkeley.
So tell your son to take advantage of this amazing opportunity at Cal and play the long game so he can have a lasting career whenever his football ends.
Whew boy this is a doozy. Angel, the coaches are going to play the guys that they believe give them the best chance to win. While I would love nothing more than to heap criticism on this coaching staff (and I have on virtually every thread on W4C since this season began), one thing they’re not doing is “benching” guys as some sort of childish retaliation for previous commitments to other schools. Keep in mind Jaydyn Ott de-committed from Cal and opened up his recruitment before finally signing with the Bears, and he’s now the starter. Ashton is a baller, and I was stoked when he signed with Cal - we need more guys from Northern California and northern Nevada who stay home and play for Cal, but he’s not playing right now because the guy at the top of the depth chart is putting up record-breaking numbers for a freshman at Cal. And my guess is that the coaches have determined that Ashton doesn’t yet do anything significantly better than the upperclassmen ahead of him on the depth chart that would warrant burning his redshirt. This isn’t an indictment against him, it’s just smart management of his eligibility. The best thing he can keep doing is working his ass off, like he clearly has for his entire life, and his time will come. I’m sure the coaches told him there would be opportunities to play early, and I don’t think they were lying, Ott just emerged from the pack. I hope Ashton is patient and keeps working hard; Cal is a special place and I’d hate to see him leave.
Be sure to be honest with the next school that your son gets equal carries or he walks. See how that goes for him. Coaching is a small world Angel. You're not doing your son any favors here.
Yes he was offered lots of scholarships. And maybe I'm not doing my son "any favors here" but people are looking him up and when he is able to play will know about him right? Your sarcasm and irritation in your responses aren't doing yourself any favors as well. I'm not worried about my son. He's set no matter what. I'm just unimpressed with what I knew prior to him accepting and after acceptance. I'm perfectly within my rights as a parent, friend, fan, or anyone for that matter upset about what I know and see going on. Take care Mr Cold Hard truth. Lol
Agreed. And while it may be true that Musgrave couldn't scheme his way out of it, he sure as hell didn't have to retain Angus in the offseason or call 3rd and 9 pass plays for 2 yards. Leadership means you are responsible for what happens. Wilcox is responsible for everything on offense. Musgrave is responsible for everything on offense.
Agreed. He may not be able to scheme out of it but he sure as hell doesn't need to actively scheme into it... and I mean that literally. We literally had a bunch of plays that went right into our O-line that wasn't getting any push at all.
Thanks for the article, Nick! Rough to read, though.
Anyone else notice that Tulane won at Houston Friday night with a 3rd string QB throwing the ball all around? F-ing Tulane…a 3rd stringer…TULANE. It IS possible.
We’re then treated to THAT offensive mess on the Palouse, in year 6, where Cal went 3 and out 5 of 12 drives and turned a winnable performance by the D into yet another loss.
I am having a harder and harder time seeing a path to Wilcox being the answer at Cal, people. Great guy, good coordinator…but the excuses grow tiresome.
This was a total bummer, but sometimes you have a crap game on the road in conference play. Especially when the other team has a D as good as Wazzu’s. It totally blows, but I am not ready to write the season off yet. We have seen really good Cal teams lay an egg in conference road games before. It does happen.
Would like to see more of Milner if we are in a blowout either way…
Well, in the JW era, it's not sometimes... it's almost all the times. Unfortunately.
https://twitter.com/avinashkunnath/status/1576379129879896064
Not to argue semantics (but what the hell else do we have to do for the next two weeks), but 2-13 conference games outside CA = 13%
With 2 more conference road games out of CA, worst JW can do this year is bring that % down to 2-15 for 12%, or bring it up to 4-13 for 24%. Seems the expectation is going to bring him to 3-14 for 18%. So by winning at CO, but not at OSU (i.e. the expected outcome) his win percentage for conference games outside CA will go up by 5%.
😜
which is still a far cry from respectable :(
What is his overall conference road record?
Overall record is 29-30
Pac 12 record is 16-26
And we decided to give him an extension because he turned down Oregon.
By my count, 5-16. We are not a scary away team in the conference.
Warning: I glanced quickly at Wikipedia and did not double check the count, lol.
They do, however, show individual game results and where they were played. I went year by year and tallied road game results and got 5-16. Hence the "by my count" disclaimer.
What were the two wins? OSU blowout win with Garbers and UW rain/lightning delay game.
Yep.
2018 @ OSU 49-7
2019 @ UW 20-19
Last week seemed encouraging, then we get the usual comedown that's happened under Wilcox: a dispiriting loss in which Cal can't move the ball at all. Sigh.
Now for the hot takes: did we give McClure the O-line job strictly due to his impressive first name?! It wasn’t due to the coaching…
Certainly seemed like the game went almost exactly as one would expect.
Catching up this evening on all the post game comments, etc. from various sources. Been camping/fishing all week.
Listened from car's Sirius XM whilst I sat in camp chair Clicked it off at half time, muttering to myself and went fishing with no desire to check final score until Sunday morning.
Sounds like a solid weekend, ak, and an excellent decision at half.
Now would probably be a good time for me to take the same approach to Cal football, at least under Wilcox, that I took with the game of golf: namely, take 2 weeks off and then give it up forever….
Sigh.
I tried to take that approach this year. I will not plan my Saturdays around Cal football.
It didn't work.
I think it's time to stop saying that Wilcox should be supported because he is a good person and an upstanding citizen. The way I see it, you can carve out about 20% of his salary, or a million bucks a year, to be there for your players and make there they go to class. He is undoubtedly winning there. The other 80%, or 4 mil, has to be devoted to the business side of the equation. That part is hiring competent and relevant coaches and devising schemes that that will make your team fun to watch, put butts in the seats and win often enough to satisfy the fan base. In season 6, Wilcox is taking a 16-26 conference record into the rest of the season with very little chance of going to bowl game while most of the teams in the conference are on the rise and playing entertaining football.
Viewed in that context, Wilcox' contract extension last year was unforgiveable, and I said so in many posts when it happened. He should have been sitting on a very warm seat this year. If so, he might have shown more motivation to change the program instead of trotting the same ol' team that gets you one or two feel good wins (Arizona this year, Oregon State last year, USC and Washington in 18) but a lot more dispiriting losses like last week.
The extension was absolutely baffling at the time…tho a critic of Wilcox, I am actually glad they didn’t fire him. BUT extending him was mind bogglingly puzzling, and SO f-ing on brand for Knowlton, who blames COVID-19 for ALL of the ills affecting his department. Doesn’t matter that Wilcox’s offenses have been schitt for his entire tenure.
Wilcox's 2nd contract signed in Dec '18 was for five years to go through 2023. The extension in Jan '22 now has his contract going through 2027.
Betcha Wilcox is relieved he got that extension penned before the rash of firings around college football this year. The Herm Edwards and Karl Dorrell firings are not so surprising, but Paul Chryst? The man had a 67-26 record as head coach at Wisconsin and got the boot after a 2-3 start this season. Wisconsin of all places, where Wilcox hatched the idea of running a Power 5 team with a contain defense and a vanilla offense well suited for Autumn falls in northern Iowa.
Tony Franklin was definitely running his own offense.
Off the top of my head George Cortez, Mike Dunbar, Frank Cignetti, Andy Ludwig, and Jim Michalzik were OCs under Tedford.
Under Dykes, Tony Franklin was really stubborn and he ran his own offense not Dykes'. I don't know how much freedom Jake Spavital had in his only year.
5-7 here we come
Two more wins? Where? I find my lack of faith disturbing...but warranted. I like Wilcox, but, for some reason, we are not on a winning trajectory.
Colorado and Stanford
That's VERY optimistic, IMHO.
Nah, it's just normal optimistic.
I don’t think so. We should easily beat Colorado. I give us a 80% chance of winning.
Stanford is a bit more difficult to project a win only because it is a rivalry game but I think we have about a 65% chance of winning Big Game.
Furd has not been good this season at all. Unless you count the Colgate game (and you shouldn't), they haven't been good for more than a year. I mean that literally . . . their last win over an FBS opponent was beating Oregon on October 2 last year.
Ok, my Monday take. Who else here believes what we will hear tomorrow from Wilcox and Musgrave is that they have had good practices and are doing good work to address the problems on Saturday? I realize that is normal, but I'm to the point where little else from some dramatic news is going to satisfy me. I watched the 2nd half of the game again, and it's appalling how lame our Oline play was, and the play calling and schemes given the poor Oline play. At this point, even wins over CO and Furd will do nothing for me. It's beat someone good, on the road, or it's truly just the same old.
I do not recognize this CalBear91
I'm a sunshine pumper but recognize that the Earth has clouds that occasionally pass overhead, even in sunny CA.