I'm much more confident Spavital will scheme around our strengths and do what he can to neutralize our weaknesses. Even with the offensive line issues, I still think a competent offensive coordinator would have squeeze 3-4 more wins in 2021 and 2022. That would have been 2 winning seasons, 2 bowl games with the accompanying practices, and a more positive outlook for recruiting purposes. Not sure we can ever understate how damaging Musgrave was for Cal football.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure if this team, even with an improved offense under Spavital, can keep up as the rest of the conference has improved so much. I see 4-5 wins for 2023?
Exactly, my friend. Just seeing how the O looked so different in the 2 games after he was gone, with Chryst, Plummer & Toler collaborating on the game plan/play calls was eye opening.
Very excited to see Spav, Bloesch & Sammy Jax!! Hoping Mason Starling gets healthy and EXPLODES in ‘23.
I think Spav and his coaches will be competent in many ways Musgrave was not. Probably need 2 years to judge unless we utterly faceplant. Schedule will be tough but 4 wins seems about right (and may even merit yet another year of Wilcox).
His contact expired on Jan 31 so presumably wasn't renewed after he was replaced. His son isn't listed on the Wisconsin roster either (was an assistant there, though Paul's dismissal probably broke that connection).
Martin Tine was a nice add. Would love a couple more big fellas in the trenches, on both sides of the ball…if they can improve in the trenches, things should be quite different!
Sammy Jax da Fifth is definitely faster and quicker than Chase, tho smaller. I looked up one of his recruiting profiles SR year out of IL and it speculated he was good enough to play as a WR…dude’s electric and shifty…this could get awfully interesting!
I never pay too much attention to the pre-season stuff. Appreciate the article though. Seems to me, so much changes once the season starts, with injuries, coaches and the orbit of Mars, it's just a highly chaotic system. You can play odds, for sure, but I'm not a gambling man. On any Saturday, I just want to see Cal play competitive games, which we we can certainly do with a better offense and typical Wilcox defense.
My bigger issue right now, I'm really wrestling with sadness about all the conference changes. Losing the LA schools, even though F*&^ them, is such a huge, huge bummer for me. I don't give a crap about SMU. I'm glad SDSU is great, but they aren't a UC. I just don't like College football in the world of conference realignment and $$$$. I'm still emotionally stuck in the Pac10 or Pac8. Football fandom is a big part of my goofy life. I'm sad for it.
Thank you Nick. I’m concerned about the N. Texas trip as well. Cal could very well be a decidedly better team next year, yet still struggle to eclipse 4 wins again due to the challenging schedule.
It’s a great year to recapture the elite, turnover producing defense of the early Wilcox years…
I'd assume that Brett Johnson returning, staying healthy, and playing to form will go very far in allowing the rest of the DLine to maximize pass rushing.
Love that kid!! Unfortunately a big IF after 2 years of no game action, but absolutely true, Peety. If he can regain that All-P12 caliber form, he’s got the potential to lift the whole D, even if he’s on a snap count of sorts.
The first three games are crucial. If we can survive against North Texas, prevail over Auburn at home and then not overlook Idaho we could start 3-0 and get a sniff of a few AP Top 25 votes. Then maybe get a 6-win season, which would be enough to save Wilcox and appease most Cal fans since the schedule is beyond brutal.
Im in the minority here but I firmly believe that if our season is respectable but we don’t make a bowl, we should NOT make any drastic coaching changes (aka keep Wilcox). This season will be the strongest competition we will ever face. OSU, UW, Oregon, and Utah will all get weaker the following year. And we won’t play USC and UCLA anymore.
Knee jerk moves will be the downfall of Cal and we can’t lose our shit if we don’t make a bowl but still improve. I’m treating this like a rebuilding year
I had that same take, that record won't be the best measuring stick. 4 wins and passing the eyeball test will probably be enough to stay the course. I hate giving Wilcox yet another chance this far in but I think we'll need 2 years to see what Spavital can do.
Though employing Musgrave is as fireable an offense as hiring Andy Buh.
I think considering what he has done vs. what he hasn't, 3 shots at finding an OC is understandable. He's gotten us pretty close to the cusp (8 win season with Beau before completely whiffing on Musgrave), so it's not like he's incapable. I also attribute a lot of our defensive pressure woes to our inability to hold onto the ball on offense -- if the defense is playing the whole game, they have to reduce the amount of pressure unless they want to burn out halfway through the 3rd.
Percentage of returning production is usually a good indicator of stability and expectable improvement, but it has to be viewed in light of whether there actually was much production. 80% of very little could still be less than only 40% of a whole lot.
Returning talent is not a great measurement when evaluating a Justin Wilcox coached team. If it was, his 2021 team that returned almost the entire offense would have contended for a Pac 12 North title. If there was a team improvement measure from 2021 through the 2022 season, I think Cal would rank at the very bottom with Colorado. That's why I'm dreading every conference game next season. I mean, who is Cal going to be favored against outside of maybe LOL Stanford?
These are objective Returning Production rankings, not picks. If anyone in the media picks us higher than the bottom third of the conference, I'll have what they're smoking! We haven't had a winning conference record in 14 years. 14!
A lot of Cal's low offense is losing both QBs (cuz of Sam Jackson), JMike, and our two TEs
I think Cal needs to really focus on OLine and QB portal recruiting after spring ball. Either way I have confidence that Spavital will be better
I'm much more confident Spavital will scheme around our strengths and do what he can to neutralize our weaknesses. Even with the offensive line issues, I still think a competent offensive coordinator would have squeeze 3-4 more wins in 2021 and 2022. That would have been 2 winning seasons, 2 bowl games with the accompanying practices, and a more positive outlook for recruiting purposes. Not sure we can ever understate how damaging Musgrave was for Cal football.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure if this team, even with an improved offense under Spavital, can keep up as the rest of the conference has improved so much. I see 4-5 wins for 2023?
Well said. I think you meant "overstate" on Musgrave. Common mistake. I agree. His offense held us back big time.
Exactly, my friend. Just seeing how the O looked so different in the 2 games after he was gone, with Chryst, Plummer & Toler collaborating on the game plan/play calls was eye opening.
Very excited to see Spav, Bloesch & Sammy Jax!! Hoping Mason Starling gets healthy and EXPLODES in ‘23.
I think Spav and his coaches will be competent in many ways Musgrave was not. Probably need 2 years to judge unless we utterly faceplant. Schedule will be tough but 4 wins seems about right (and may even merit yet another year of Wilcox).
His contact expired on Jan 31 so presumably wasn't renewed after he was replaced. His son isn't listed on the Wisconsin roster either (was an assistant there, though Paul's dismissal probably broke that connection).
Martin Tine was a nice add. Would love a couple more big fellas in the trenches, on both sides of the ball…if they can improve in the trenches, things should be quite different!
Finally we will have a modern offense with a highly mobile QB. I believe Sam is faster and more elusive than Chase was.
Sammy Jax da Fifth is definitely faster and quicker than Chase, tho smaller. I looked up one of his recruiting profiles SR year out of IL and it speculated he was good enough to play as a WR…dude’s electric and shifty…this could get awfully interesting!
Looking forward to seeing that pass to the quarterback.
I never pay too much attention to the pre-season stuff. Appreciate the article though. Seems to me, so much changes once the season starts, with injuries, coaches and the orbit of Mars, it's just a highly chaotic system. You can play odds, for sure, but I'm not a gambling man. On any Saturday, I just want to see Cal play competitive games, which we we can certainly do with a better offense and typical Wilcox defense.
My bigger issue right now, I'm really wrestling with sadness about all the conference changes. Losing the LA schools, even though F*&^ them, is such a huge, huge bummer for me. I don't give a crap about SMU. I'm glad SDSU is great, but they aren't a UC. I just don't like College football in the world of conference realignment and $$$$. I'm still emotionally stuck in the Pac10 or Pac8. Football fandom is a big part of my goofy life. I'm sad for it.
Thank you Nick. I’m concerned about the N. Texas trip as well. Cal could very well be a decidedly better team next year, yet still struggle to eclipse 4 wins again due to the challenging schedule.
It’s a great year to recapture the elite, turnover producing defense of the early Wilcox years…
The Takers 3.0
YES!!
A little more pressure on opposing QBs, it could happen, golden!!
We have struggled to create a pass rush in 2020, 2021, and 2022 due to injuries and overall Line play. Hopefully this year will be different
I'd assume that Brett Johnson returning, staying healthy, and playing to form will go very far in allowing the rest of the DLine to maximize pass rushing.
Love that kid!! Unfortunately a big IF after 2 years of no game action, but absolutely true, Peety. If he can regain that All-P12 caliber form, he’s got the potential to lift the whole D, even if he’s on a snap count of sorts.
The first three games are crucial. If we can survive against North Texas, prevail over Auburn at home and then not overlook Idaho we could start 3-0 and get a sniff of a few AP Top 25 votes. Then maybe get a 6-win season, which would be enough to save Wilcox and appease most Cal fans since the schedule is beyond brutal.
I don't think it would be enough to make the Sun Bowl (sorry) but a minor bowl somewhere else.
Any bowl is a big win this season
Im in the minority here but I firmly believe that if our season is respectable but we don’t make a bowl, we should NOT make any drastic coaching changes (aka keep Wilcox). This season will be the strongest competition we will ever face. OSU, UW, Oregon, and Utah will all get weaker the following year. And we won’t play USC and UCLA anymore.
Knee jerk moves will be the downfall of Cal and we can’t lose our shit if we don’t make a bowl but still improve. I’m treating this like a rebuilding year
I had that same take, that record won't be the best measuring stick. 4 wins and passing the eyeball test will probably be enough to stay the course. I hate giving Wilcox yet another chance this far in but I think we'll need 2 years to see what Spavital can do.
Though employing Musgrave is as fireable an offense as hiring Andy Buh.
I think considering what he has done vs. what he hasn't, 3 shots at finding an OC is understandable. He's gotten us pretty close to the cusp (8 win season with Beau before completely whiffing on Musgrave), so it's not like he's incapable. I also attribute a lot of our defensive pressure woes to our inability to hold onto the ball on offense -- if the defense is playing the whole game, they have to reduce the amount of pressure unless they want to burn out halfway through the 3rd.
If Spav falls flat, Wilcox goes.
Agreed! Hear, hear!
It would be a very Cal thing to happen for me to drive 4 hours to go see the UNT game only to find myself in a nail-biter... Oh well, I'm in!
Percentage of returning production is usually a good indicator of stability and expectable improvement, but it has to be viewed in light of whether there actually was much production. 80% of very little could still be less than only 40% of a whole lot.
Is it time for me to guess our record at 14-0 yet?
15-0, P12 title game, CFP semi, and CFP champs!
No National Champs?
Wilcox fail!
Returning talent is not a great measurement when evaluating a Justin Wilcox coached team. If it was, his 2021 team that returned almost the entire offense would have contended for a Pac 12 North title. If there was a team improvement measure from 2021 through the 2022 season, I think Cal would rank at the very bottom with Colorado. That's why I'm dreading every conference game next season. I mean, who is Cal going to be favored against outside of maybe LOL Stanford?
Potentially ASU. The fate of the season will come down to if we can win the non-conference games
These are objective Returning Production rankings, not picks. If anyone in the media picks us higher than the bottom third of the conference, I'll have what they're smoking! We haven't had a winning conference record in 14 years. 14!