Rating the Bears: Cal vs. Miami Football

In which all rating criteria are valid

Photo credit: @cal_football

How do you rate a game like that? It’s like having a student who aced the first midterm, earned a perfect score on the second midterm, and then slept through the final. Do you reward the excellent effort over the bulk of the term? Punish the awful final exam? Something in between? Looking over the ratings this week, I think all those approaches were used to generate this week’s ratings.

Rating the Bears

Reflecting that ratings were all over the place, the standard deviations in each category are huge. Usually they are in the mid-teens and occasionally a category will break into the 20s if it had a particularly uneven performance. But every single category is well into the 20s. Coaching nearly hit 30! We all apparently had very different criteria for evaluating the performance on the field.

Special teams earned the highest ratings of the day, a pleasant contrast to the field goal unit’s struggles over much of the season. Nando’s explosive game helped propel pass offense to the second-highest rating among all categories. Run offense continues its season-long trend of disappointment, as Jet and Ott were unable to get much going behind the O-line. One day we’ll stop facing elite defensive lines…such as this Saturday where we’ll only face Pitt’s merely solid D-line. After Pitt’s 5-0 start, our predictions of a win over the Panthers have declined from our preseason prediction of a likely victory to a toss-up game.

Ratings Comparison

The chart below compares those ratings to all previous ratings we’ve amassed. While we used to do opponent-level ratings (e.g. all Oregon games), we do not have enough data among our new ACC friends to warrant comparison.

Comparing Saturday’s ratings to all other ratings in the Wilcox Era. The box represents all data between the 25th and 75th percentiles, and the horizontal line represents the midpoint.

It would have been fascinating to compare the first half ratings and the second half ratings, because most of these averaged out to somewhere near the middle. Pass offense and special teams remained elevated while run offense was consistently bad, so I doubt we would see much difference between their first and second-half scores. Everything else? We probably would have been near record highs if the game had ended after Cal went up 35-10.

Awards

As always, we have awards to hand out to the lowest, highest, and most reasonable ratings of the week. Reminder: parentheses next to the name note the number of times that reader has previously received that award.

Old Blues

First, our lowest scores of the week.

BearsWillEndMyLife and Life is pain are perfect names to appear in this category this week.

Sunshine Pumpers

Next up, our highest ratings of the week.

The wildest thing about this week is these seem just as reasonable as the Old Blues ratings. It really was that kind of game.

The Voice of Reason

Finally, our raters whose scores were closest to the community average. Given the gigantic standard errors this week, this was quite an achievement.

Onwards to the comments…how was Gameday?!

Comments

Any comments on the gameday experience?

cvleon: I am not a avid football fan and it was the first time I heard about “College Gameday”. It was surprisingly good, I see what the hype was about

trilljester: Frustrating ending but wonderful to see Cal fans come out in force for GameDay and put us on the national map as a football town.

Ethan Kassel: Great atmosphere. Sucks that failing to finish it likely quells some of the momentum that could have been created. Attendance two weeks from now will look disappointing, and a win tonight would have changed that.

At the risk of sounding like my grandpa, the piped-in music is getting to be over the top. Music shouldn't drown out a roll on you Bears chant. There's times to get the crowd going with music. It doesn't need to be every play.

Also, please play Ott To Go during the break after a Jaydn touchdown.

1988goldenbear: 3:30am in the grove to midnight in the Underhill parking structure… long day that was the best day ever until it wasn’t.

Bowlesman80: Watched CGD and my eyes leaked.

Watched the game and my heart leaked.

Frisco Bear: Could have been the greatest day in Cal Football history since 1959. For 23 1/2 hours, it was a great day to be a Golden Bear. But at around 11:30 PM, the clock struck the proverbial midnight and the dream was over.

It was nice seeing a sold out Memorial Stadium. We are "this" close to being "there" consistently...

Tangtpt: I couldn't be more proud. Gameday was unbelievable. The fans at the stadium were so energized. We haven't seen this kind of turnout in at least a decade, and it was incredible. Our guys played hard and it was just an honor to be there to see it, despite the pain that I am in now.

bearspot: Felt like an historic day in Berkeley. From midnight Sat morning to midnight Sunday, simply unbelievable. The stadium was rocking like unlike it has in over a decade. Fans of all kinds in the crowd, not just Cal fans either. The drone show was back and better then before. So much energy. So much volume. So much sound and fury. Despite the loss, an impression was certainly made!

What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?

HaasBear: Explosive!

cvleon: In the beginning, I thought I was dreaming cause this was not the CAL offense I was used to. And then…. *cold water* oh wait yeah we’re back.

Ethan Kassel: Bloesch called an awesome game. The one head scratcher was having Rogers throw to the end zone on that third down instead of Mendoza. It was such an obvious passing situation that there was no gain to using Rogers to keep them on their toes.

1988goldenbear: O-line is still not good enough. Mendoza had great set of completions but needed a few more to run clock. And that non-call on the targeting was disgraceful (and a killer). That ACC crew is getting paid tonight.

BearsWillEndMyLife: If I'm Mendoza, I hold out and try to transfer immediately. Wilcox is actively trying to kill him. Just because Mendoza CAN hit miracle third-and-long completions, or is not entirely human, doesn't mean you SHOULD call the worst and most counter-productive game plan known to man. Yes, let's call as many quick passes as possible so we stop the clock and give Ward AS MANY CHANCES AS POSSIBLE TO BEAT US.

BlueDuck: Dangerous. When Mendoza had time, he was able to move the ball in an impressive fashion. Putting up 38 on Miami is a solid achievement.

KJ 1980: Mendoza led a great passing attack until the outcome determinative fourth quarter.

Mr.Octetter: Excellent first three quarters, disappeared in the 4th

fuzzywuzzy: The big plays...were awesome - but more is needed to beat good teams when they fix their blown coverages.

BrooklynBear: Boy there was SOME GREAT designs in the first half

What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?

cvleon: Ott came through on one or two plays and that’s it? I think?

MoochPunt: Miami stacked the box. Not a lot of room to run. Ott didn’t look 100%. Jet broke a big run.

Calboy76: The U's line is very big and very good. They did adjust with some West Coast type "long handoffs" that worked.

BlueDuck: We just never had the push on the line. The Miami front was able to just push the point of attack far enough that almost all our running plays first met resistance behind the line of scrimmage.

fuzzywuzzy: Ugh - not much. We simply can't run up the middle, at all on any team that has a semi-decent or better defensive line. They had some nice options to deal with this fact - counters, screens, and I won't forget the TD run by Ott and the fact they scored 31 points, but the run game was limited, which makes the passing game all that much more difficult.

bearspot: The explosives were thrilling, but the time of possession should have been instrumental in keeping Cam Ward off the field by sustaining drives with a solid grinding run game. 22:05 was never going to cut it and didn't.

AKBear: Need more from run offense but missing Ott at the end of the game was a blow. Their first series was a total bust trying to go outside. .

What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?

MoochPunt: Stifling for 3 quarters. Missed assignments in the 4th quarter came back to hurt us. I would have liked to keep the pressure on Cam Ward, when the pressure stopped he was able to find open receivers.

sacman701: Good for 2.5 quarters, then completely disintegrated and repeatedly failed on 3rd or 4th and long in addition to the 77 yard bust at the worst possible time. We blitzed too much on some of those plays.

Ethan Kassel: Miami was basically able to run four verts in the fourth quarter, and there wasn't enough pressure on Ward to force him into the terrible decisions that put him into the hole in the first place.

1988goldenbear: Ward was shut down for a good part of the game, but without pressure he picked us apart. We missed a couple opportunities for picks. Lost a few receivers in coverage for at least one TD and that huge catch and run on Miami’s final drive.

BearsWillEndMyLife: News flash: a football game in America at the NCAA FBS level is contested for 60 minutes, over four quarters. And yes, I was able to confirm this was the case before kickoff tonight at 730pm. I guess that makes me more knowledgeable about football than Wilcox?

59RoseBowl: Good until the 4th qtr

Rose Bowl Oski: Great until they ran out of gas because of the TOP disparity

Frisco Bear: Cam Ward looked frustrated n the 2nd and 3rd quarters. The D was on the field far too long and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. They did everything they could.

Tangtpt: Great for 3 quarters, but lost steam in the 4th. Hard to ask more from those guys against a near certain Heisman finalist.

AKBear: The big blow was the long pass play on their last drive. Not sure what went wrong but it was a backbreaker. I was in the far end zone so it was hard to see how the D was set up. Was there a scheming issue?

What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?

trilljester: Very good. They kept the Miami run offense in check after the first few series.

Willis Chong: Gashed in the beginning, then solidified. Unfortunately, the lost track of Cam one too many times.

MBrew3: Got gashed a little early, but tightened up.

Ethan Kassel: Martinez was going to be a problem, but I wasn't especially pleased or dissatisfied. A couple good tackles in short-yardage situations were nice to see, though.

1988goldenbear: Gave up big chunks in the first half and then when Miami had to pass to catch up they didn’t run as much. But they pretty much got yards on the ground when they needed them.

BlueAndGold: This is the kind of loss that makes you post lyrics to your socials with no context.

BlueDuck: Miami won the line of scrimmage almost all night long. When they chose to run the ball, they had the slight edge. That being said, we were quick to limit any run.

Mr.Octetter: stout defense

fuzzywuzzy: They did better than us on this one...not too bad, plus several tackles for loss.

BrooklynBear: Pretty solid in stopping explosion (save 1 run)

What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?

trilljester: Nice field goal work. Punting was fine. Coverage on kickoffs and punts was solid.

Willis Chong: Made the FG and kick offs were pretty good.

sacman701: Not the reason we lost.

MBrew3: Normal, incident free.

Ethan Kassel: No objections tonight. That's something that needs to be replicated.

BearsWillEndMyLife: OMG Coe made a field goal! Good for him special teams didn't cost us the game.

BlueAndGold: This is the kind of loss that makes you think a land acknowledgement isn't enough to break the curse of building the campus on an Ohlone burial site.

Mr.Octetter: best special teams so far

BrooklynBear: Great

What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?

trilljester: Really good play calling on offense and the defense brought pressure constantly which really made Ward look human. The blown coverages in the 4th quarter hurt a lot.

MoochPunt: The team was ready to play. Lots of emotion and few mistakes to start the game. 2nd half time out usage was baffling. Letting Rodgers have a series at the end of the 3rd quarter signaled to the Cal Bears that turtle time had begun. That was when the momentum shifted.

Life is pain

Life is pain

Calboy76: No one thought Cal had a chance and they were this close to victory. Let's give them some credit. That will be a game remembered for a long time. The U got incredibly lucky for the second game in a row

Ethan Kassel: Bloesch called an awesome game, pulling out all the stops to have them in a position to win despite largely being unable to run the ball. He utilized gadget plays at the right times, and I loved the quick passes to counter blitzes. It's hard to pin this one on coaching. Sometimes players just need to play better.

BlueDuck: My only note is that we seemed to get too conservative too quickly. This was the kind of game where we knew how dangerous Ward and the Miami passing game could be. I know going conservative is typically the right call with a 35-10 lead, but the moment Miami showed signs of momentum again, I think we should've been more aggressive and gone for points.

the townie: Can’t let off the gas and have to find a way to win.

rare bear: why no offensive scheme for the 2nd half ?

Frisco Bear: Seems as if the staff had the players ready to go, both strategically and motivationally. Only criticisms would be clock management. At the end of the 2nd quarter, we left too much time on the play clock which COULD have allowed Miami to get another score. Also, the 4th quarter, the Bears were playing not to lose and not to continue to win.

Mr.Octetter: 3 quarters excellent, last quarter what happened?

BrooklynBear: FRUSTRATING! Coach Bloesch had a great gameplan to score points BUT THEN HAD NO IDEA WHAT TO DO WITH A 25 POINT LEAD. All the great plays that led to scoring 28 points were no longer used. Coach Wilcox has NO IDEA how to play with a lead. He's maybe clenching a little too hard in ALL GAMES when there's a lead. 1 for 10 on 3rd downs in the 2nd half can't be solely poor execution. Gameplan had ...no expectation to lead this game.

What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?

Gobears157: How the F was that not targeting?! The refs handed the game to Miami bc Cal could’ve milked the clock with a fresh set of downs. Extremely disappointing…

cvleon: You had me there in the beginning! Glad I know it was CAL football and didn’t get my hopes up :( My heart did beat a little faster for a second though

I still love you though CAL <3 GO BEARS until I DIE AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWEEEW

Willis Chong: Winnable game, would have been a statement game. Moral victories now mean a possible exit from collegiate athletics now. To me, that's a shame.

Auburn win is now looking like the best we can do. No confidence for the Pitt or the NC State games, so I'm not sure if we get to 6 wins.

Please surprise me in a pleasant way

MoochPunt: The best 3 quarters I have ever seen any Cal Bears team play. I’m extremely proud of the team and of the Cal community.

I’m absolutely gutted. This day should have been a crowning achievement of the team and community coming together to generate a big time college football atmosphere. I just don’t have words to describe the emptiness I feel after watching an improbable comeback turn into an inevitable comeback.

MBrew3: Pretty amazing to experience the first half, then it fell apart. You can’t allow yourself to be in a close game with Miami, because then the refs will bail them out.

Ethan Kassel: This team is simultaneously good enough to take a 25-point lead on a Top 10 team and blow a 25-point lead. But carry over everything except the run offense and fourth quarter pass defense from this game, and it'll be good enough to beat just about everybody remaining on the schedule.

KJ 1980: Cal exceeded my expectations for falling apart. This was a sad day in the annals of Cc football history. Just when we looked like a team that had to be reckoned with, we collapsed in monumental fashion. Why am I a Cal football fan?

59RoseBowl: It was there for the taking but instead we gave it away. Officials non-call on the targeting call was outrageous. They make that call, we get another possession and we win. If we had even a mediocre offensive line, we would be undefeated.

Rose Bowl Oski: There should be a rate the officials category. The non calls on targeting and linemen down field should lead to suspensions. Still trying to understand how Cal snatched defeat from the jaws of victory after holding a 25 point second half lead.

fuzzywuzzy: Still trying to figure out whether the 1st 3 quarters were Miami mistakes (obviously the pick-six was) that they fixed, or we just ran out of gas, or...3rd down conversion rate was not good; we seemed to not be able to deal too well with their defensive line; Mendoza is still too young of a QB to be able to deal with that type of a defense. I'm certainly happy they put up a fight until the end - it was actually a very good day for college football, but...we kinda (?) have the skills and talent to be 5-0, but we just can't seem to make that happen.

BrooklynBear: No meaningful turnovers! Reduced penalties! Great explosive play. Can't rely on run and can we rely on the Defense? We'll see against an explosive dual-threat QB at Pitt.

bearspot: What a game! There's been nothing in Memorial like it for well over a decade. The Bears played well in the big spotlight. This is a good team, but Miami was just better and deserves their ranking. Cal's players, however, could only keep Miami down for 56 minutes. In the end, Cam, the Canes, and (once again) the ACC command center™️ were just too much.

AKBear: I wasn’t sure where to put this comment so I’m putting it here. Something needs to be done regarding full transparency on reviews in the stadium. Who makes the call? What was the discussion during the review? Who is part of the review? The explanation about the targeting call really had all fans confused. This includes U fans that were sitting where I was. From what I could hear in the stands, I’m fairly certain that even Miami fans near me thought that a targeting call was coming.

Thanks to all those who participated. After an excruciating couple games, I hope we get a more positive outcome in Pittsburgh (especially because I’m driving 4+ hours to attend in person).