Rating the Bears: Cal at UCLA Football

Last week featured our best set of ratings in two years. This week was even better.

Image credit: @cal_football

The Bears have experienced all kinds of games against the Bruins since we started this series. Cal blew out UCLA 35-7 in 2010 and followed that up with a 5-turnover blowout loss under a scorching Pasadena sun in 2011. In 2012 a triumphant win over a ranked UCLA team looked like it might break the Bears out of a looming death sprial (it most definitely did not). 2013 was another blowout loss in Pasadena while 2014 was an oh-so-close loss to a 10-win UCLA team, followed by another regression in a yet another blowout loss in Pasadena. Cal blew out UCLA in 2016 in a meaningless season finale that saw Sonny Dykes earn his first win over one of the CA schools. The 2017 season ended with a game-winning field goal that propelled UCLA to bowl eligibility. In one of the most mystifying defeats of the Wilcox era, 2018 saw the Bears surrender a season-high 35 points to an 0-5 UCLA team while scoring a season-low 7 points (until tying that mark in the infamous Cheez It Bowl). Cal earned another rare win in Pasadena in 2019 and followed that up in 2020 with another mind-bogglingly bad performance in a 10-34 loss that was scheduled to kick off at 9am on a Sunday on about 48 hours’ notice. The next trip to the Rose Bowl was another bowl eligibility-denying loss in blowout fashion. And last year Cal blew a double-digit lead, regained the lead in the 4th, and lost it again thanks to an unstoppable UCLA rushing attack.

For whatever reason, Cal-UCLA always turns into a random number generator of results: blowouts, nailbiters, snoozefests—no matter the quality of the Cal or UCLA teams. And it’s a shame that this past weekend’s game, another completely unexpected result, is the last matchup we will see between these two for the foreseeable future. Thankfully, this longtime series ended as well as any of us Cal fans could have hoped.

Rating the Bears

As we have done all season, we rated the Bears’ performances on a variety of categories.

80s and 90s across the board! Special teams leads the way with the highest special teams rating we have seen in fourteen seasons of this series. Across all categories this ended up being the third-highest set of ratings we have seen, which knocked last week’s Big Game win off the podium. Alas, it was not enough to supplant second place, the 2021 Big Game blowout victory, or the highest rated game in our history, the highly improbable smoke bowl blowout win over top-ten Wazzu in 2017.

Looking ahead to 2024, we predict an average of 7.81 wins. This team was a couple field goals short against Auburn and a two-point conversion short against USC from finishing 8-4, so nearly 8 wins is not inconceivable, especially in an ACC that is far weaker than this year’s absolutely stacked Pac-12.

Ratings Comparison

As the intro reminded us, we have seen a huge range of performances against the Bruins. The plot below compares Saturday’s ratings to all prior ratings against UCLA.

Comparing Saturday’s ratings (gold) to all recent ratings against UCLA

Those boxes capture data between the 25th and 75th percentiles, but look how huge those spreads are! We have seen everything from fantastic to catastrophic, although special teams is the lone outlier without a huge amount of variance. Although this was the best game against UCLA in our series history, only special teams, coaching, and overall earned the highest grades we have seen against the Bruins.

The ratings compare quite favorably to the rest of the Wilcox Era, where all ratings finish above the 75th percentile.

Special teams set a new high while everything finished with spectacular but not record-setting highs. In sum, it was a delightful finish to the Pac-12 era.

Awards

We have our usual triumvirate of awards this week, but this week we’ve elected to give out a couple bonus awards…

Sunshine Pumpers

…because we have a seven-way tie for the top Sunshine Pumper spot! Our 11-time award winner Calamo has plenty of company in the top spot this week.

Old Blues

Next, the lowest ratings of the week (reminder, the number in parentheses notes the number of times an individual has received this award previously).

That is an exceptionally high floor.

The Voice of Reason

Next, those whose ratings were closest to the community average.

This was a very closely contested category this time, as the top five were only separated by .66. This is the closest the top five have been all season.

Next up, comments of the week.

Comments

Any comments on the gameday experience?

sacman701: It was on ESPN! I got to watch it. With the Bears sitting on the Bruins, the announcers basically turned the 4th quarter into a wake for the Pac-12.

Nye: Love to see how poised Mendoza is and how he is showing maturity in everygame, Love to see cal fans travel Go Bears!!

CoBears: Love capping the PAC with a win and sending the baby bears off to the B1G with sad faces. And what a day for a game!

GoldenBear88: Fantastic! My wife (a Bruin) decided that tonight was the perfect night to go out and reconnect with old friends. We got home just in time for the second half and to see Cal with a 20-7 lead and it only got better from there.

KJj1980: The most satisfying win of a topsy turvy season. A thorough thrashing of UCLA in the very last Pac 12 football game. I will most remember the wins over Furd and UCLA.

Calboy1976: Best game by JW's team in his career. Nearly flawless. They made the overrated Chippies look like a High School team

GlueAndBold: I'll happily trade the excitement of family rooting together for a nice quiet (victorious) evening alone with my partner.

1988goldenbear: Rose Bowl is Bear Territory!

Mark: PAC-12 AFTER DARK

Texashaterforlife: I am/was getting tired of the Pac12 after dark series. I hope Cal's move to the ACC will have more noon and 4/5pm kickoff times.

What are your thoughts on Cal's passing game?

HelloBowlesHall: Mendoza did not look great, but the rest of the team - in particular the defense was BALLING.

sacman701: We weren't able to move consistently, but we had some success with quick throws and made some other plays here and there. The two picks hurt. A caveat is that UCLA has a very good defense.

Bowlesman80: Mendoza’s dimes balanced out some interceptions. I think it’s a positive as he continues to extend beyond his grasp. I thought the interception followed by the FUCLA TD was the beginning of the end, but we got lucky in this case.

TKE Prytanis 79: Fernando wasn't perfect but he was great...and great at this point in his career is a wonderful upon which to build.

GlueAndBold: Not Mendoza's finest game but acceptable given UCLA's caliber of defense. Once some of those freshman mistakes get ironed out we'll be genuinely good.

1988goldenbear: Hunter had himself a game! Nice that we didn't miss Sturdivant at all... Mendoza needs to clean up those bad throws but the future looks bright.

The Ghost of Joe Roth: Fernando must clean up the poor throws leading to INTs but I love his enthusiasm, toughness, and leadership.

fuzzywuzzy: Not as electric as some other games, and the two picks, but they got it done - plus the two TDs. Can't hit them too hard on this one, especially against this Defense. Better yet, it seemed like the pass blocking improved throughout the game.

BearsWillEndMyLife: For the first 20 minutes, I genuinely thought after this whole roller coaster of a season, Mendoza was finally going to play like a freshman and cost us a bowl game. Despite his improvements over the second half of this game and this season, he still shows some pretty basic developmental needs - he stares down receivers, his footwork is at time awkward, his middle to deep ball accuracy needs work, and he too often takes the play's first route even if it is a dangerous throw. I don't blame him for these things, they're just things he'll improve on with time. I just lament more and more the time he didn't get because Wilcox and Spavital were f***ing around with Finley and Jackson. If Mendoza were 4-5 games further along in his development, how many more wins would we have? How much more attractive would we look to skill player recruits? Grizzell and Endries have been revelations as walk-ons - they deserve scholarships. I am thrilled we found ways to feed Hunter and give him some shots on 50/50 balls so he could have his best game of the season.

What are your thoughts on Cal's running game?

Old School Bear: Can’t say enough good things about the O line, who were coached up to their potential

sacman701: Not much there in the first half, got going in the second half. The backs had 31 carries for 127 yards which doesn't sound like much, but UCLA has one of the nation's best run defenses.

Nye: Love to see the backup running backs showing they can come up clutch in big games.

Willis Chong: OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT OTT

cleancutmedia: We going bowling!!! So happy!!

KJj1980: Ott! Ott! Ott!

Goldenone: Ott and Williams -Thomas finally broke through the stout UCLA defensive line

Calboy1976: Ott is paving his way into the upper most tier of Cal RB's. He's probably the best since Best!

jakewebs: Very very impressive performance against one of the best rushing defenses in the country. Much will be (deservedly) made of Ott, but Williams-Thomas deserves MAJOR credit for his performance today. Every single run he was getting a few extra yards by out-efforting the Bruins defense.

fuzzywuzzy: Tale of two halves, but great to see the 2nd half be the better of the two - great improvement throughout the game, and again...to do that against this defense, on the road....GO BEARS

Clifford Fewel: I LOVED the 8-minute drive at the end, especially J. Walter Thompson’s (sic) contribution.

What are your thoughts on Cal's pass defense?

HelloBowlesHall: I don't wish for anyone to get injured, but UCLA losing Garbers may well have been the biggest point in the game. Moore did not impress and degraded as pressure started to build (literally and figuratively)

Old School Bear: Bend don’t break. The pick by Uluave was masterful

sacman701: Coverage and tackling were soft at times, but the pressure often got home as we had 6 sacks including the strip sack to set up the first half TD and were otherwise disruptive enough to prevent UCLA from sustaining anything. We also avoided meltdowns: UCLA had 52 pass plays counting sacks, and none went longer than 24 yards.

Willis Chong: Probably a bit of it was because Garbers was injured, but gotta give credit where credit is due for keeping them to 7 points

CoBears: INTs! The first one in the end zone was spectacular; the next one deep in ucla’s territory was as spectacular. Uluave is a star in the making. And our defense looked better than theirs today.

Clbear: UCLA couldn't get anything going aside from starting from our 8yrd line. And the takeaways and pass breakups and the QB pressures. It is a singularly complete defensive performance.

Goldenone: Solid and avoided giving up the big play. Sturdivant was shutdown and our line created havoc in the second half

GlueAndBold: We're fortunate Garbers got injured, because we sure victimized Dante Moore. Uluave is already a defensive star.

jakewebs: WOW. Uluave is a BEAST and could cause some serious havoc in the ACC next year. Garbers being injured definitely helped because Moore is very raw, but this was still a stellar performance by the unit.

HaasBear: Ethan Garbers going down changed everything. The coaches adjusted to having a limited QB on the Bruins and teed off.

Rose Bowl Oski: Pressure on the QB all night led to poor throws

What are your thoughts on Cal's run defense?

Willis Chong: Kept Steele bottled up for the most part

CoBears: Did ucla run? Just kidding. We did well against the run. And then ucla was forced to throw to try to catch up, and we played it all very well.

GoldenBear88: Outstanding. They pitched a shutout. No rushing td's by any of the FUCLA running backs.

Goldenone: Contained Steele and Harden for the most part

TKE Prytanis 79: They have that beast who looks like Thor, but in the end we did more than enough ...again, the score says it all.

The Ghost of Joe Roth: Overall number was helped by the sacks but they were stellar inside.

fuzzywuzzy: They bent, but didn't break, and contained that beast #33 when they had to.

Rose Bowl Oski: Inspired! Uluave is a beast with a performance that might be his second defensive player of the week in 3 weeks

heyalumnigo: For the most part, bottled up the run. Steele looks like he could've gashed us for a lot of yards.

What are your thoughts on Cal's special teams?

HelloBowlesHall: Damn that was awesome

sacman701: We took a kickoff to the house, recovered a fumble on a UCLA kickoff return, went 4/4 on field goals, and punted well. Best special teams game since Furd in 1982?

Willis Chong: Bhaghani going 4/4 on FGs? Luckhurst recovering a fumble? No super broken coverages? Guess it's nice to see special teams do so well today!

CoBears: Ott. That alone could yield a near perfect score, particularly right after they scored on us to take the lead. But Bhagani nailed his FGs and the fumble on. ucla’s kickoff return was the nail in the coffin. We haven’t had as good a day on special teams in a LONG time.

BTown85: First 100 I’ve ever given!!!

Clbear: Perfection from the 100yd kick off return, fantastic punting taking all the right bounces, the perfect FGs and PATs, coverage, forced fumble and recovery setting us up for the score. And I love love love Luckhurst got his moment.

GoldenBear88: Incredible, especially after witnessing the problems we had earlier in the season against Auburn. It was great to see Luckhurst recover that fumble on the kickoff return.

KJj1980: Perfecto. A kick off return for a touchdown! Great punting! Field goals. Wow.

Goldenone: Superb punting, place kicking, and a 100 yard return for a touchdown. Plus, luckhurst recovered a fumble.

Calboy1976: The best overall performance in years.

1988goldenbear: Gave them 100 for the 100-yard return by Ott that broke ucla's spirit, Bhaghani was 100%, Wilson had a great day punting including a 73-yarder, and Luckhurst had a fumble recovery!

What are your thoughts on the coaching staff's performance?

HelloBowlesHall: Coaches had our team ready and UCLA was not ready.

sacman701: Offensive and defensive game plans were just what the doctor ordered.

Willis Chong: Good game plan, and it was working because we stuck with it. Was aggressive when we needed to and was able to take advantage of UCLA mistakes. If anything, it was nice to outcoach UCLA

CoBears: Had them ready to play for our last trip in a while to the Rose Bowl. We played well in all phases of the game. Great way to end the PAC-12 regular season for the last time. And gives me hope in these coaches going forward.

GoldenBear88: By far the best job of coaching all season. The defense was on fire and Spavital made sure that the FUCLA defense was on the field so long that by the fourth quarter you could see that they were just WORN OUT!!!! Nice mix of runs and short passes s that really softened up their defense so Hunter could get those two td's.

KJj1980: Wilcox and crew planned well and the players executed the plan.

GlueAndBold: Out-coached Chip Kelly, that's for sure. The highlight? JW knew Ott would struggle against UCLA run D and gave him kick returns too to get some extra opportunities. That paid dividends in spades.

1988goldenbear: They were ready. Dialed up the pressure on defense and took full advantage of Moore's inexperience. Special teams finally gave Ott an opportunity for a return. Offense plan was a solid mix of runs and passes.

sacalum: Can't complain about success.

degibbs: Excellent! Their game plan was on target and they guided team emotion well.

The Ghost of Joe Roth: Full on credit to Coach Wilcox for preparing the Bears and keeping their heads up after the disaster in Eugene. A win in a bowl game will make this season a success.

Old Bear 71: Who were those guys, and what did they do to Wilcox? Wowza!

Clifford Fewel: Yes. The players speak volumes in their praise of the process, and I trust them more than anyone else weighing in on the subject.

Rose Bowl Oski: This team was well prepared and focused. Helluva job guiding the team to 3 straight wins to close out the season after a brutal stretch punctuated by the pasting at Oregon

What are your thoughts on Cal's overall performance?

TezCALipoca: A COMPLETE game in all phases. so great to see what we could be, regretful that we weren't this all season, but grateful for the final game to be a big win.

sacman701: This wasn't a typical 26-point win, as we were outgained by 78 yards and our offense understandably often struggled to move the ball against UCLA's near-elite defense. But we made far fewer mistakes than UCLA did and regularly made big plays in high-leverage situations, and beat them silly on special teams. Overall this was a very good effort, and the extra practices should set the team up well for next season.

Willis Chong: WE'RE BOWL ELIGIBLE!

CoBears: Flew from Washington for this one with the fam, and wow was it worth it! We finally made the Rose Bowl Bear Territory. And we finally left no doubt whatsoever and played lights out. ACC! ACC! ACC! But before that, let’s go bowling, Bears!

Clbear: This game is everything I want to see, and it's not just the blow out win at the Rose Bowl against UCLOL. It would have been so easy to give up at 3-6 three weeks ago. It was heartbreak loss after loss during that stretch. I will be honest, I didn't have that much hope when Mendoza said they are going to a bowl three weeks ago. And this team showed me up and are bowl bound. I am so proud their tenacity. Credit to the coaches too for getting the team prepared mentally. At no point did I feel the team came out flat mentally this season after a loss and that is a stark contrast from last year. Cal was the more resilient team tonight. Well deserved win! Burn down the city indeed!

GoldenBear88: This is by far THE most satisfying win of the year! Not just because we gave the middle finger to one of the schools responsible for busting up the Pac-12 and now we are going bowling, but because we looked good doing it. Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News predicted a close win and that is what I thought would happen. But to see us go to the Rose Bowl and absolutely blow up FUCLA, that was just excellent karma.

Goldenone: Superb

Calboy1976: The best Cal performance I've seen since before Covid screwed the pooch. This was the game I knew Wilcox could manufacture.

MLocher: The Bears we knew we had all along, finally strutting their stuff in earnest: opportunistic, energetic, gutsy, confident. Weakness mitigated. Strengths exploited. Exciting to watch!

1988goldenbear: Best effort of the year in (sadly) what is the final Pac12 regular season game. Feels good to beat this team so completely after our history of nightmares in the Rose Bowl. Bruins are going to get smashed in the Big10.

sacalum: What a perfect middle finger salute to a school that greedily sold us out and helped ruin the Pac-12.

degibbs: Superb

The Ghost of Joe Roth: A three game win streak to close out the final Pac 12 season is a great way to finish, especially at UC Los Angeles.

Texashaterforlife: honest truth, UCLA did not seem to be focused mentally for this game. Credit for Cal coaches and players to be focused to make bowl eligibility.

Old Bear 71: The game we’ve been waiting for, hoping for, praying for since 2017! Loved it! Every phase; every down, sack, interception, run back, fumble recovery, giant punt, touchdown throw, yards after catch, qb hurry, So satisfying for this Old Blue!!

jakewebs: The most satisfying Cal win since the Big Game in 2019, and the most impressive all-around performance since Wazzu in 2017. Did anyone see this coming??? This team absolutely deserved to go bowling, and I am thrilled for them that they accomplished it. By the way baby bears, SCOREBOARD!

HaasBear: It was wonderful to see an empty rose bowl with more cal fans in attendance than bruins.

Rose Bowl Oski: Bowl bound Bears!

heyalumnigo: Everyone stepped up big time on Sat. Excited for the bowl game and next year.

Thanks for participating! Check back after the bowl game for our ratings submission of the year.