Great article with great analysis. No arguing the lack of recruiting. Facing the prospect of another year of this is the worst. Watching the Pac12 championships was such an example of the talent gap we have. Granted, our top teams are legit competitors for either the Natty or a elite 8 finish, but why would great players choose UW or Oregon over Cal? Fox is either needs to hire much better assistants, or we are doomed. I've said many times that I believe Fox gets as much from his players as most other coaches, but that doesn't excuse the lack of talent.
Perfect, Nick! No one was expecting even close to a full turnaround by this point, but you should be starting to feel some buzz. The Wyking and Williams excuses have reached past their expiration dates.
Brutal, but accurate assessment. I know saying "what have we got to lose?" usually turns out poorly but we may be at that point. We already hit the worst possible scenario when giving an assistant their first HC gig (Jones), leaving the cupboard so bare that we can't afford an experienced coach capable of fixing it. Probably will have to gamble on an another assistant.
FWIW, I'm not sure how much faith you can put into recruiting rankings where the bulk of the evaluation period was during COVID. Not sure how much live action actually happened, and how much of that live action was actually seen by a scout. Might be better to go off of offer lists, and Bowser didn't have any other power conference offers.
Just my opinion here but Monty had the bounce, length, height and athleticism to sneak in as a four star. There’s a lot of physical tools there that would indicate a decently high ceiling. Even JHD was a 4-star for his athleticism and ability to guard 1-3 due to his physical tools.
I haven't really been able to decide how I feel about the recruiting site evals since he's barely played 100 minutes of basketball due to COVID/injuries
Say what you will about Wyking, but he wasn't a bad recruiter. He left Bradley, Vanover, and Sueing. Anyone who witnessed Fox's cringeworthy speech to the team when he took over couldn't have been surprised by the defections. Without a doubt Wyking was a legendarily bad coach, but it's not like he got us on probation or burned our arena down. We make it out as if the program was unrecoverable, but that just wasn't the case. The death blow was really following up with Fox.
I always look at the top 150 prospects and traditionally we are at least on the extended lists of a very small handful of guys, usually in California. Not necessarily taking visits, but in the longer lists of considered schools. We are no longer on any of those extended lists. Cal basketball is basically underground.
Exactly. McNeill was also a serviceable combo guard, but he had way too many 3-12 shooting games for my liking, tho so did Grant & Shepherd and they were the foundation of this team.
There’s zero excitement surrounding Fox & the program, though, and while it’s fine for Knowlton to pay lip service to the fact that Cal needs to recruit better, there’s 15 years worth of Fox evidence that this just isn’t the case. Plus, Cal will likely forever be losing the transfer portal game, as our best players will be transferring out their SR years for greener pastures, and they’ll be replaced by lesser players.
I agree with my own assessment that Wyking was a better recruiter, yes. As far as Vanover and Sueing. . . .Vanover was really coming into his own his sophomore year, despite Wyking. To me, he was the silver lining in Wyking's tenure, so I was really bummed that we couldn't keep him. Haven't followed him at Arkansas, but he definitely was more potent--and by a lot. Sueing's Cal numbers as just a soph aren't much different than Shepherd's lone Cal year. Because he was playing on a much more loaded OSU roster and less minutes/game as a result, his numbers have not surprisingly dropped. But he's shown he can be a starter on a very good team. Shepherd is feast or famine and unlike Sueing hasn't shown to be contributor on a good team. I doubt Shepherd would be a starter on OSU.
WK was clearly the better recruiter. He was on Martin's staff which was a recruiting plus, and he sold the program by saying "run and gun ... you've got the freedom ... we'll going to score a ton of points, and get lots of steals and fast breaks ... "
but when that didn't work, there was a player revolt and WK was going to lose many/most of his players including Sueing
so yes, WK was a good recruiter in the same way that some sales people are good at selling ... but you also have to deliver what you've sold
There's a lot of truth in this article. The title is 100% true. But you didn't define what rebuilding means at Cal. We know, for example, what rebuilding means at the aforementioned Arizona & UCLA, as they are currently enjoying the results of successful rebuilds. But looking back at the good 'ol days for Cal (pre-Wyking, post-PAC8 being formed), Cal has had exactly one conference championship and no conference tournament championships in those 48 years. We had 14 NCAA appearances, which means we visited the tournament ~30% of the time. But we lost in the first or second round in 10 of those 14, meaning we had no realistic chance of doing any real damage in all but 4 seasons out of 48. We obviously want more, but let's be realistic. Cal is not a basketball school, top recruits rarely ever come here. Cal offers one of the top degrees in the nation, but how many 4/5* high school kids are attracted to rigorous academics and lackluster facilities and little winning tradition? Short of a miracle hire, or someone in Haas (the business school, not the pavilion) coming up with a killer NIL program, Cal really can't be anything more than a 3*, get 'em in & coach 'em up school. I believe that the results in our next 5 years will be the same whether we extend Fox (for stability/consistency/competency which has it's own attraction) or bring in the next bright young coach for 'energy' and 'buzz' (who would also need to bring a couple of 4*'s with him for things to turn around). Change for change's sake is not rebuilding.
I agree and disagree. It is accurate to point out that Cal MBB is historically not a great program . . . but that simplifies things. Cal MBB from 1960 to 1985 was maybe the worst program in the conference. But since that point Cal has been regularly competitive in the conference and often a very good team.
Just from 2010 through 2016, Cal brought in the following top 100 recruits, all 4/5 star players: Allen Crabbe, Richard Solomon, Tyrone Wallace, Jabari Bird, Jaylen Brown, Ivan Rabb, Charlie Moore. That's an average of one per season, which is about the rate that Ben Braun brought on high end recruits as well. Those recruits were largely major contributors to a program that was regularly finishing in the top 4 in the Pac-10/12 for an entire decade.
I don't think Cal fans are currently (or, generally, ever) demand the sky. I think most are just happy to start each season dreaming that if the chips fall right, the Bears will make the NCAA tournament. That's not something that Cal fans have enjoyed even once in five seasons and aren't likely to dream of next year.
Speaking of Charlie Moore…for those who aren’t familiar, he is STILL playing college basketball as the starting PG for Jim Larranaga’s Miami Hurricanes, who take on USC on the 2022 NCAA basketball tournament. Now committed to his 5th overall program, his college career outlasted that of his Cal HC Cuonzo Martin’s one in Columbia, MO.
Found this fascinating…an Al Grigsby-like career, tho Moore hasn’t missed a single season due to injury.
That's a good argument. This is why it is truly up to Knowlton and donors to decide how good they want Cal basketball to be? Continued mediocrity? Monty showed we can have success with good but not top talent, but as I keep saying, there are few Monty's out there. Cuonzo brought in top talent, but couldn't get them to pay well. I went all the way to Spokane to watch Cal play in the first round of the NCAA and watched us lose to Hawaii even with Jaylen Brown and a great team. We need a recruiter, and a coach, and those cost money and are hard to find. Especially one who will get that Cal is always first and foremost the #1 Public University in the World!
Wallace broken hand...out. Jabari Bird, back...out....Jaylen Brown gets 2 early player control fouls, and ball game. We had no backup PG, and Cuonzo coaches O about as well as Fox. Yuck...what a disappointment.
I still seethe at that 2nd early foul call on Jaylen. There was no foul, the ref was looking elsewhere, reacted to something out of the corner of his eye and calls the phantom foul. Without that call, Jaylen stays in, & we probably win.
I noticed that as well, OoT…sure, there were definitely plenty of instances where Jaylen got too physical and initiated contact…but man, there were plenty of times too where the stripes anticipated contact and whistled him for pretty tight things, or for plays that could easily have been blocks…
Exactly. The distractions alone were devastating for a team that lacked leadership amongst the players…Ty, Jaylen, Rabb, Jordan & Jabari we’re all nice, smart, quiet kids…man, coulda used a Jorge!!! Team had no leaders. Sigh…what a waste of talent to get run by Hawaii…
I don't think anyone here has invoked UCLA or Arizona, so you may be misreading the hopes and expectations of your fellow Bears hoops fans. What many of us are hoping for is a return to the middle to above the fold of the conference at least, with the occasional team that punches through to the tourney every few years. Fox is well below that bar and not at all likely to get us there whether we give him next year or five years. If scraping along at the very bottom of the conference every year is acceptable to you, then why even pay Fox $1.8 million per year? And why not turn the page? There is literally nothing to lose. We are the floor. No one goes to games anymore. We're not on TV besides the Pac-12 network, which means no one watches. We are either the worst or second to worst team each and every year. What are your protecting?
Nick mentioned UA & UCLA in his article, I was only using them as examples of programs that were down and have rebuilt. Until Nick, you, and others replied, no one had articulated what a rebuild looks like at Cal, what our expectations are. Now that we're mostly in agreement about what success looks like, I don't see any reason to move on from Fox (other than if a perfect (for Cal) replacement drops into our lap ala the Montomery hire in 2008). To me it is just as likely that a couple of 3.8/4.2* athletes get recruited to Cal in the next couple of years regardless of if it's Fox (continuity) or a young, dynamic coach (excitement) replacing him. You and I obviously disagree on what Fox has done for the program. But you're wrong, Fox is not at that low bar, Cal basketball is. And we all know who put them there. Put Fox in Pauley with Cronin's roster, you'd get the same record.
Not all turnarounds happen in a couple years. He's created an excellent defense played by guys who have bought in, but an offense designed around players who can't reliably sink an open jumper. So, he is recruiting his desired body type (Celestine, Kuany, Alajiki, Anyanwu, Roberson), but the reason they're here is that they were not 4*s. The difference between them and 4*s is that 4*s can fill it up. So, the plan is to improve the roster with his kind of players, and then coach them into scoring and defending machines. I personally think it's really hard to coach someone into being a better shooter, but until they want to come to Cal out of HS, that's our only option.
Obviously we disagree on the value of Fox, taking swings or the potential for Cal basketball at least in the nearer term, but I appreciate your perspective, passion and support for Cal hoops. You have far greater patience than I have.
Musselman should have got the nod after Monty. Was an easy call. The other problem besides Knowlton is Christ. She knows absolutely nothing about sports, doesn't really care, and wants to hire and maintain "nice people" per folks from Boston Market that know her well.
Fox lacks any creativity and can not adjust to the majority of in game situations. I am shocked more teams didn't play zone against Cal as they showed no ability to score consistently against one. Every day Fox remains the coach is a waisted day. I don't know how well he would do on the west coast but Shaheen Holloway from Saint Peters would be a good hire
Exactly. Why the Bears didn’t see zone every single game is a mystery, because they could not do a single thing against it. Then again, this team could not score effectively v man, either, so there’s that.
He got Saint Peters to their first tournament since 2011 this year. In the same conference as Iona who has Rick Pitino as a coach. Also was a great recruiter when he was at Seton Hall helping to recruit McDonalds All American Isaiah Whitehead
So Bozeman couldn't take credit for Kidd, Grigsby, Buckley, etc. because he wasn't HC? I don't know the details of Holloway and Seton Hall, but to imply that an assistant can't take credit for a recruit is one of the more ridiculous things I've heard here. If that was the case, no one should have cared how Tosh left us.
I never warmed up to Cuonzo, and I don't really care what happens to him after CAL. What I do love is how SI (linked here from Yahoo) headlined his firing from Missouri as "Former Cal Coach". Wow. That coffee cup at CAL (OK 3 years I think) counts more than like 6 years at his current school. If that's how important CAL is then let's can Fox and coax coach K out of retirement!
OH... apparently the original source of the article was Faraudo so that explains the CAL connection... I still think it's funny that it shows up this way.
Great article with great analysis. No arguing the lack of recruiting. Facing the prospect of another year of this is the worst. Watching the Pac12 championships was such an example of the talent gap we have. Granted, our top teams are legit competitors for either the Natty or a elite 8 finish, but why would great players choose UW or Oregon over Cal? Fox is either needs to hire much better assistants, or we are doomed. I've said many times that I believe Fox gets as much from his players as most other coaches, but that doesn't excuse the lack of talent.
Perfect, Nick! No one was expecting even close to a full turnaround by this point, but you should be starting to feel some buzz. The Wyking and Williams excuses have reached past their expiration dates.
Brutal, but accurate assessment. I know saying "what have we got to lose?" usually turns out poorly but we may be at that point. We already hit the worst possible scenario when giving an assistant their first HC gig (Jones), leaving the cupboard so bare that we can't afford an experienced coach capable of fixing it. Probably will have to gamble on an another assistant.
The article is dead on. There is just no energy or buzz around the program right now. It is bleak.
Great article, Nick. Thank you !
How was Bowser a 4*? Hope we see some of that next year, because sure didn’t see flashes of that from him as a FR last year.
FWIW, I'm not sure how much faith you can put into recruiting rankings where the bulk of the evaluation period was during COVID. Not sure how much live action actually happened, and how much of that live action was actually seen by a scout. Might be better to go off of offer lists, and Bowser didn't have any other power conference offers.
Just my opinion here but Monty had the bounce, length, height and athleticism to sneak in as a four star. There’s a lot of physical tools there that would indicate a decently high ceiling. Even JHD was a 4-star for his athleticism and ability to guard 1-3 due to his physical tools.
I haven't really been able to decide how I feel about the recruiting site evals since he's barely played 100 minutes of basketball due to COVID/injuries
Say what you will about Wyking, but he wasn't a bad recruiter. He left Bradley, Vanover, and Sueing. Anyone who witnessed Fox's cringeworthy speech to the team when he took over couldn't have been surprised by the defections. Without a doubt Wyking was a legendarily bad coach, but it's not like he got us on probation or burned our arena down. We make it out as if the program was unrecoverable, but that just wasn't the case. The death blow was really following up with Fox.
People also forget Andre Kelly and Joel Brown were both commits under Wyking for what its worth.
I always look at the top 150 prospects and traditionally we are at least on the extended lists of a very small handful of guys, usually in California. Not necessarily taking visits, but in the longer lists of considered schools. We are no longer on any of those extended lists. Cal basketball is basically underground.
Exactly. McNeill was also a serviceable combo guard, but he had way too many 3-12 shooting games for my liking, tho so did Grant & Shepherd and they were the foundation of this team.
There’s zero excitement surrounding Fox & the program, though, and while it’s fine for Knowlton to pay lip service to the fact that Cal needs to recruit better, there’s 15 years worth of Fox evidence that this just isn’t the case. Plus, Cal will likely forever be losing the transfer portal game, as our best players will be transferring out their SR years for greener pastures, and they’ll be replaced by lesser players.
Sigh.
Yes.
I agree with my own assessment that Wyking was a better recruiter, yes. As far as Vanover and Sueing. . . .Vanover was really coming into his own his sophomore year, despite Wyking. To me, he was the silver lining in Wyking's tenure, so I was really bummed that we couldn't keep him. Haven't followed him at Arkansas, but he definitely was more potent--and by a lot. Sueing's Cal numbers as just a soph aren't much different than Shepherd's lone Cal year. Because he was playing on a much more loaded OSU roster and less minutes/game as a result, his numbers have not surprisingly dropped. But he's shown he can be a starter on a very good team. Shepherd is feast or famine and unlike Sueing hasn't shown to be contributor on a good team. I doubt Shepherd would be a starter on OSU.
I think it's better for Vanover, and probably Sueing as well, to have transferred. No way they thrive under Fox's O philosophy.
WK was clearly the better recruiter. He was on Martin's staff which was a recruiting plus, and he sold the program by saying "run and gun ... you've got the freedom ... we'll going to score a ton of points, and get lots of steals and fast breaks ... "
but when that didn't work, there was a player revolt and WK was going to lose many/most of his players including Sueing
so yes, WK was a good recruiter in the same way that some sales people are good at selling ... but you also have to deliver what you've sold
Hmm The Buffs are #4 in the league. And #8 in recruits. Why did we Fox an extension?
There's a lot of truth in this article. The title is 100% true. But you didn't define what rebuilding means at Cal. We know, for example, what rebuilding means at the aforementioned Arizona & UCLA, as they are currently enjoying the results of successful rebuilds. But looking back at the good 'ol days for Cal (pre-Wyking, post-PAC8 being formed), Cal has had exactly one conference championship and no conference tournament championships in those 48 years. We had 14 NCAA appearances, which means we visited the tournament ~30% of the time. But we lost in the first or second round in 10 of those 14, meaning we had no realistic chance of doing any real damage in all but 4 seasons out of 48. We obviously want more, but let's be realistic. Cal is not a basketball school, top recruits rarely ever come here. Cal offers one of the top degrees in the nation, but how many 4/5* high school kids are attracted to rigorous academics and lackluster facilities and little winning tradition? Short of a miracle hire, or someone in Haas (the business school, not the pavilion) coming up with a killer NIL program, Cal really can't be anything more than a 3*, get 'em in & coach 'em up school. I believe that the results in our next 5 years will be the same whether we extend Fox (for stability/consistency/competency which has it's own attraction) or bring in the next bright young coach for 'energy' and 'buzz' (who would also need to bring a couple of 4*'s with him for things to turn around). Change for change's sake is not rebuilding.
I agree and disagree. It is accurate to point out that Cal MBB is historically not a great program . . . but that simplifies things. Cal MBB from 1960 to 1985 was maybe the worst program in the conference. But since that point Cal has been regularly competitive in the conference and often a very good team.
Just from 2010 through 2016, Cal brought in the following top 100 recruits, all 4/5 star players: Allen Crabbe, Richard Solomon, Tyrone Wallace, Jabari Bird, Jaylen Brown, Ivan Rabb, Charlie Moore. That's an average of one per season, which is about the rate that Ben Braun brought on high end recruits as well. Those recruits were largely major contributors to a program that was regularly finishing in the top 4 in the Pac-10/12 for an entire decade.
I don't think Cal fans are currently (or, generally, ever) demand the sky. I think most are just happy to start each season dreaming that if the chips fall right, the Bears will make the NCAA tournament. That's not something that Cal fans have enjoyed even once in five seasons and aren't likely to dream of next year.
Speaking of Charlie Moore…for those who aren’t familiar, he is STILL playing college basketball as the starting PG for Jim Larranaga’s Miami Hurricanes, who take on USC on the 2022 NCAA basketball tournament. Now committed to his 5th overall program, his college career outlasted that of his Cal HC Cuonzo Martin’s one in Columbia, MO.
Found this fascinating…an Al Grigsby-like career, tho Moore hasn’t missed a single season due to injury.
Weirder...he still looks like he's in middle school.
That's a good argument. This is why it is truly up to Knowlton and donors to decide how good they want Cal basketball to be? Continued mediocrity? Monty showed we can have success with good but not top talent, but as I keep saying, there are few Monty's out there. Cuonzo brought in top talent, but couldn't get them to pay well. I went all the way to Spokane to watch Cal play in the first round of the NCAA and watched us lose to Hawaii even with Jaylen Brown and a great team. We need a recruiter, and a coach, and those cost money and are hard to find. Especially one who will get that Cal is always first and foremost the #1 Public University in the World!
Oh god that Spokane trip was brutal.
I drove 5 hours on like 2.5 hours of sleep just to watch 2 of our top 3 players get hurt before the game starts?!?!
Wallace broken hand...out. Jabari Bird, back...out....Jaylen Brown gets 2 early player control fouls, and ball game. We had no backup PG, and Cuonzo coaches O about as well as Fox. Yuck...what a disappointment.
I still seethe at that 2nd early foul call on Jaylen. There was no foul, the ref was looking elsewhere, reacted to something out of the corner of his eye and calls the phantom foul. Without that call, Jaylen stays in, & we probably win.
I noticed that as well, OoT…sure, there were definitely plenty of instances where Jaylen got too physical and initiated contact…but man, there were plenty of times too where the stripes anticipated contact and whistled him for pretty tight things, or for plays that could easily have been blocks…
And creepy Hufnagel . . . same week. I knew we were losing that game. Too much bad mojo to overcome.
Exactly. The distractions alone were devastating for a team that lacked leadership amongst the players…Ty, Jaylen, Rabb, Jordan & Jabari we’re all nice, smart, quiet kids…man, coulda used a Jorge!!! Team had no leaders. Sigh…what a waste of talent to get run by Hawaii…
Everyone seems to forget that last part.
On the plus side I did meet CB91 right before the game started.
Yes, that was the highlight! Meeting another long time CGB guy. Then the game started...
I don't think anyone here has invoked UCLA or Arizona, so you may be misreading the hopes and expectations of your fellow Bears hoops fans. What many of us are hoping for is a return to the middle to above the fold of the conference at least, with the occasional team that punches through to the tourney every few years. Fox is well below that bar and not at all likely to get us there whether we give him next year or five years. If scraping along at the very bottom of the conference every year is acceptable to you, then why even pay Fox $1.8 million per year? And why not turn the page? There is literally nothing to lose. We are the floor. No one goes to games anymore. We're not on TV besides the Pac-12 network, which means no one watches. We are either the worst or second to worst team each and every year. What are your protecting?
Nick mentioned UA & UCLA in his article, I was only using them as examples of programs that were down and have rebuilt. Until Nick, you, and others replied, no one had articulated what a rebuild looks like at Cal, what our expectations are. Now that we're mostly in agreement about what success looks like, I don't see any reason to move on from Fox (other than if a perfect (for Cal) replacement drops into our lap ala the Montomery hire in 2008). To me it is just as likely that a couple of 3.8/4.2* athletes get recruited to Cal in the next couple of years regardless of if it's Fox (continuity) or a young, dynamic coach (excitement) replacing him. You and I obviously disagree on what Fox has done for the program. But you're wrong, Fox is not at that low bar, Cal basketball is. And we all know who put them there. Put Fox in Pauley with Cronin's roster, you'd get the same record.
Not all turnarounds happen in a couple years. He's created an excellent defense played by guys who have bought in, but an offense designed around players who can't reliably sink an open jumper. So, he is recruiting his desired body type (Celestine, Kuany, Alajiki, Anyanwu, Roberson), but the reason they're here is that they were not 4*s. The difference between them and 4*s is that 4*s can fill it up. So, the plan is to improve the roster with his kind of players, and then coach them into scoring and defending machines. I personally think it's really hard to coach someone into being a better shooter, but until they want to come to Cal out of HS, that's our only option.
Plan B would be to start over (again).
Obviously we disagree on the value of Fox, taking swings or the potential for Cal basketball at least in the nearer term, but I appreciate your perspective, passion and support for Cal hoops. You have far greater patience than I have.
How can there be such a drop off in recruiting from the level of Mike Montgomery? It is the same school.
Musselman should have got the nod after Monty. Was an easy call. The other problem besides Knowlton is Christ. She knows absolutely nothing about sports, doesn't really care, and wants to hire and maintain "nice people" per folks from Boston Market that know her well.
We need to get rid of Knowlton or nothing will change.
a very thoughtful and balanced article. thank you
Truly the program is entirely moribund. Drastic action needs to be taken to right the ship.
Cuonzo is back on the market...LOL
I'll offer him free Top Dog to come back
Fox lacks any creativity and can not adjust to the majority of in game situations. I am shocked more teams didn't play zone against Cal as they showed no ability to score consistently against one. Every day Fox remains the coach is a waisted day. I don't know how well he would do on the west coast but Shaheen Holloway from Saint Peters would be a good hire
Exactly. Why the Bears didn’t see zone every single game is a mystery, because they could not do a single thing against it. Then again, this team could not score effectively v man, either, so there’s that.
He got Saint Peters to their first tournament since 2011 this year. In the same conference as Iona who has Rick Pitino as a coach. Also was a great recruiter when he was at Seton Hall helping to recruit McDonalds All American Isaiah Whitehead
So Bozeman couldn't take credit for Kidd, Grigsby, Buckley, etc. because he wasn't HC? I don't know the details of Holloway and Seton Hall, but to imply that an assistant can't take credit for a recruit is one of the more ridiculous things I've heard here. If that was the case, no one should have cared how Tosh left us.
https://saintpeterspeacocks.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/shaheen-holloway/2186
He was the associate head coach for 8 years there. Here is an actual helpful link if you want to read it
I never warmed up to Cuonzo, and I don't really care what happens to him after CAL. What I do love is how SI (linked here from Yahoo) headlined his firing from Missouri as "Former Cal Coach". Wow. That coffee cup at CAL (OK 3 years I think) counts more than like 6 years at his current school. If that's how important CAL is then let's can Fox and coax coach K out of retirement!
https://sports.yahoo.com/m/549b1686-d52c-386b-ad31-be5eeadc2d2b/former-cal-coach-cuonzo.html
OH... apparently the original source of the article was Faraudo so that explains the CAL connection... I still think it's funny that it shows up this way.
Well, that's a Cal bears news so I think that headline is fine.