A big part of this is roster depth. October is where starters get dinged up and newer players have to step up. Top teams (which Cal tends to play in October as well like SC and Oregon in Pac 12 days) get 4-5 star depth replacements and Cal doesn't have that luxury.
Honestly, if you drop the UNC game at home, a midseason dismissal would be sorely needed…it would demonstrate a sense of urgency and show the fanbase, recruits, and the college football world that it’s an entirely new era for Cal football and steps are being taken to restore confidence.
Archon: Truer words have never been spoken and I think Wilcox knows this. Franklin, Foster, Bray, Gundy, etc., are all examples of how impatient many schools have gotten with their football coaches over continued losing, especially embarrassing losses to bad teams. If Cal shits the bed on Friday (or even wins but looks bad doing it), Wilcox will be gone Saturday morning. I hope this doesn't happen and it probably won't, but he has had NINE YEARS to turn things around and we are all STILL WAITING! Football gods, pray for us.
If they do win though, we will likely be road favorites against another dysfunctional team in Virginia Tech next week. I don’t think its irrational sunshine pumping to think there is a decent chance we are 6-2 going into the Virginia game.
Its not an exaggeration to say the next two games are the Wilcox-era defining games at Cal.
But based on what RR’s said, I just don’t see him doing that until later, and once later has come around, they’ll likely dawdle and wait until after the season.
Jimmy: Good points and let me reiterate that I HOPE THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN! However, one can't help but worry considering Wilcox's record in October and against bad teams.
Preseason, I was definitely thinking that the coaching additions would help keep Wilcox from Wilcoxing, and there’s been a few glimpses that that may be the case.
Unfortunately, there’s also been plenty to show that it’s simply the same old Wilcox.
Maybe the majority of the Duke film showed the staff some things and the bye week allowed for extra time to work on adjustments/corrections. I dunno, I am nothing more than hopeful, rather than confident.
Even though we should never get blown out at home v an unranked Duke team, they are actually pretty good, at least on O. The fact that they dominated us defensively for 3 quarters despite have basically no healthy LBs was problematic moving forward.
UNC is a train wreck. An L Friday would be the end of the Wilcox era in Cal, tho in typical Cal fashion, they would wait and terminate him after the season.
A loss on Friday night should be the end but I still doubt it.
However, I will be at the game and if we are losing and if you hear chants, even as faint as they may be due to the lack of people at Memorial, of “FIRE WILCOX” I want you to know it is me
I had not considered Roster Depth as part of the Wilcox October Curse (WOC). I think WOC has come down to playing better teams and programs - but Steve McLain has a point: better programs have more depth to their personnel. WOC is still real nonetheless. Let's hope NC does NOT have their act together on Friday night! Go Bears...
Cal Football season officially ended for me after Dookie loss. I got better things to do than watch another year of mediocre football. Next year will be better! GO BEARS!!
A big part of this is roster depth. October is where starters get dinged up and newer players have to step up. Top teams (which Cal tends to play in October as well like SC and Oregon in Pac 12 days) get 4-5 star depth replacements and Cal doesn't have that luxury.
We're gonna lose to UNC Bill aren't we.....
Losing to a broken North Carolina team at home would warrant a midseason firing of Wilcox.
Honestly, if you drop the UNC game at home, a midseason dismissal would be sorely needed…it would demonstrate a sense of urgency and show the fanbase, recruits, and the college football world that it’s an entirely new era for Cal football and steps are being taken to restore confidence.
Archon: Truer words have never been spoken and I think Wilcox knows this. Franklin, Foster, Bray, Gundy, etc., are all examples of how impatient many schools have gotten with their football coaches over continued losing, especially embarrassing losses to bad teams. If Cal shits the bed on Friday (or even wins but looks bad doing it), Wilcox will be gone Saturday morning. I hope this doesn't happen and it probably won't, but he has had NINE YEARS to turn things around and we are all STILL WAITING! Football gods, pray for us.
I fully expect Cal to struggle with UNC, but the W at BC bought Wilcox at least until 8-wins are off the table.
But if they do lose Friday, it’s going to get real ugly here and on the socials.
If they do win though, we will likely be road favorites against another dysfunctional team in Virginia Tech next week. I don’t think its irrational sunshine pumping to think there is a decent chance we are 6-2 going into the Virginia game.
Its not an exaggeration to say the next two games are the Wilcox-era defining games at Cal.
Agreed. Two critical games, both very winnable.
Even a staunch Wilcox critic like myself would absolutely acknowledge that a 6-2 start is respectable. I’m rooting for it.
But they’re going to have to play better football than they’ve played to date, and historically Justin Wilcox-coached teams do not do that:
1. Against train wreck programs teetering on the edge;
2. Off a bye week;
3. In the month of October;
4. In conference games.
Hopefully this time is different, of course, but still feels a lot like Charlie Brown lining up to boot one with Lucy as the holder….
and in the locker room.
Shades of FSU last year.. but I'm still expecting a rock fight win to hook us again, followed by some dreadful losses down the stretch.
Newellbany and I were talking…the disastrous L’s against U of A, Colorado & FSU were all roadies, where he historically struggles.
Drop this one at home, and RR should literally begin the interview process Monday because he’s not coming back from this one.
Jimmy: Not Monday, Saturday morning.
I hope Rivera already has a short list of HC candidates handy.
100% agree with you that is what SHOULD happen.
But based on what RR’s said, I just don’t see him doing that until later, and once later has come around, they’ll likely dawdle and wait until after the season.
Jimmy: Good points and let me reiterate that I HOPE THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN! However, one can't help but worry considering Wilcox's record in October and against bad teams.
Preseason, I was definitely thinking that the coaching additions would help keep Wilcox from Wilcoxing, and there’s been a few glimpses that that may be the case.
Unfortunately, there’s also been plenty to show that it’s simply the same old Wilcox.
Maybe the majority of the Duke film showed the staff some things and the bye week allowed for extra time to work on adjustments/corrections. I dunno, I am nothing more than hopeful, rather than confident.
I’m flying up for this game with my wife and other Cal friends so I expect us to lose in spectacular Wilcox fashion
A safe bet.
Does UNC Bill have his 'friend' on the sidelines?
That would just be so typi-cal. But maybe that was Duke. And this will be the BC turnaround…
Even though we should never get blown out at home v an unranked Duke team, they are actually pretty good, at least on O. The fact that they dominated us defensively for 3 quarters despite have basically no healthy LBs was problematic moving forward.
UNC is a train wreck. An L Friday would be the end of the Wilcox era in Cal, tho in typical Cal fashion, they would wait and terminate him after the season.
A loss on Friday night should be the end but I still doubt it.
However, I will be at the game and if we are losing and if you hear chants, even as faint as they may be due to the lack of people at Memorial, of “FIRE WILCOX” I want you to know it is me
I hope so. Duke is clearly better than most people thought. Their coach, Manny Diaz, is considered a dark-horse contender for the Penn State job.
I had not considered Roster Depth as part of the Wilcox October Curse (WOC). I think WOC has come down to playing better teams and programs - but Steve McLain has a point: better programs have more depth to their personnel. WOC is still real nonetheless. Let's hope NC does NOT have their act together on Friday night! Go Bears...
Cal under Wilcox has lost to some of the worst Power conference teams in the nation in October.
The loss at Colorado, which SHOULD have cost him his job, came in October, off a bye.
Was the Arizona loss in October or November? I feel like it was in November but it must have been the first week of November
Both the Colorado and Arizona losses ripped my heart out. Those losses were unforgivable imho...
I remember following on the phone in between races at Del Mar for the Breeder’s Cup, which would’ve been November.
Cal Football season officially ended for me after Dookie loss. I got better things to do than watch another year of mediocre football. Next year will be better! GO BEARS!!
Thank you Lindsey! Nice work, tough as it is to read as a Cal fan! ;-)
Wow, nice to see it quantified.. Thanks!
Great work on these charts. The "evenly matched" bars in the Chart = "Cal Win % by Opponent Strength" is very revealing!
Yup, this year it started in September.