I'm already trembling with sadness of our upcoming loss. I will be elated if the God of Bears smiles upon us and we pull out a miraculous win. I've seen this tape before. Our offense will not transform overnight, and our defense is not quite as good as before.
My prediction: if (when?) Chase gets sacked for another 3 and out, we see a Rubenzer-like substitution of Glover to "switch things up......" Best case, though, we can run at least somewhat effectively, and we mix up our pass attempts to keep TCU guessing..... Go Bears!!!
I thought the same thing in 2018-- TCU had an elite secondary, but they probably would have had similar results with a "pretty good" one too. However, as I was going through the defense, it did make me feel a bit better. They have a lot of question marks on their defense -- their right defensive end, their linebacker, their safeties, etc. Of course, these players could also turn out to be future NFL stars, but they've yet to be tested. It probably won't be us who tests them, but I guess we'll see.
Horton was actually winning the battle over Coleman early in camp, and with Coleman not looking like he will return any time soon, Dylan will be the guy opposite Ochaun for a while. He is the most physically imposing player I have seen on a TCU defense in a while, and I think he has a chance to be really good. Mathis, on the other hand, might be the best defensive end in the conference by the time the season ends. Daniels is not going to play, and might not see the field all season. He has some of the dreaded off the field stuff going on, and details are scarce as to what they are. It's not good, though, and folks are concerned about his well-being. Dee Winters has a chance to be the next elite linebacker, but I will be shocked if Harris lines up next to him to start. Jamoi Hodge outplayed Wyatt week one and has been our pick to start alongside Dee all offseason. The safeties might be the deepest group (it's a toss up between that and the line) as they legit go two deep at each position. Losing Moehrig/Washington hurts, but Clark/LVZ/Bradford/Carter/Foster are all really good players. Not superstars, but solid and don't make a ton of mistakes -- though you can about guarantee a 15 yard penalty for Van Zandt weekly.
That's fair, I appreciate your insight. I have to say that at Cal we have seen plenty of guys who look great in camp, but then it doesn't translate over to the field. So to me, until it happens on the the field, it doesn't count. 😉
Similarly, there are guys who are quite obviously physically talented (for example, I'm super high on Oregon defensive back Mykael Wright), but they still make mistakes in coverage when they're younger and still learning the position. So I think any time you lose someone with e.g. Moehrig's experience, it hurts.
Totally fair. Foster, Bradford, and LVZ have played a lot in the last two seasons (Washington missed time last year), so I have seen enough of them to have faith that they can get the job done. Clark is a wildcard but he's been my football crush since he signed so I am super high on him. But yeah, we didn't learn much from La Tech or Duquesne so tomorrow is going to reveal a lot about this team before SMU/Texas.
Great write-up and analysis Christopher. I hope we'll see a re-shuffled offense from the Bears considering our struggles last Saturday, but this defense seems like a tough test. Whether we can break out and execute some big plays is an open question.
The 4-2-5 is increasingly popular these days as a defense meant to stop the now-dominant spread offense. Nevada and TCU both run it, UCLA runs it, Washington State runs it, ASU and Utah run both a 4-3 and 4-2-5, USC runs a variant of it (3-3-5, but a nickel-focused defense, popular in the Big 12, e.g. Iowa State), Washington runs their own unique variant of it (2-4-5, also a nickel base defense), but a lot of defenses borrow concepts from it.
Prior to the emergence of the spread, a nickel defense (nickel = 5, for the 5th defensive back) was something you'd only see in obvious passing situations (e.g. 3rd and long), and the nickel would be the 5th best defensive back on the team, i.e. not starter quality. There were a couple of high-profile games that led to the rise of the spread offense that took advantage of this, e.g. 2005 Texas's win over USC in the Rose Bowl (BCS National Championship), 2006 Florida smashing Ohio State the next year in the BCS National Championship, etc. Pete Carroll's USC ran a 4-3, but Texas's spread offense stressed USC's talented linebackers (like Brian Cushing), and USC eventually adjusted by rotating in an extra (nickel) defender, Ryan Ting, a former 3-star recruit, to combat the spread offense (leaving some of USC's most talented players on the bench). USC lost 41-38, but what if they had recruited one less talented linebacker for one more talented defensive back? Even still, the nickel was a matchup to take advantage of-- if you recall Mike Leach's "run game", they'd throw it out wide to a running back. So short swing passes wide to a big strong RB or WR against an undersized defensive back, who do you think is going to win?
Consequently, the spread offense exploded the following year, in 2007 (this is why so many new offensive records were set in that year). And like USC and Ohio State learned, you needed a highly-talented nickel defender to stop the spread, not just someone who was your 5th best defensive back on the team. While nickel used to be pejorative (you're the 5th best), it was renamed as it became the centerpiece of a defense-- Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, the hybrid linebacker/safety, played a position called "the Viper." Nick Saban calls the position the "Star". At TCU, it's the "strong" safety (note that their two LBs are actually Sam and Mike linebackers). Teams found that by putting a star player in the position, they would be in the middle of the field where they could cause the most amount of havoc around them (like LSU's Tyrian Mathieu in 2011), while sometimes a super talented safety will be too deep to help, or a lockdown corner (like Mathieu was) is only shutting down one player.
So to answer your question, we'll see this defense again, but Patterson is one of its key innovators (especially with how common spread offenses are in the Big 12). It's become increasingly common these days to fight the spread, which is why you'll see a lot more "nickel" defenders these days.
I'm already trembling with sadness of our upcoming loss. I will be elated if the God of Bears smiles upon us and we pull out a miraculous win. I've seen this tape before. Our offense will not transform overnight, and our defense is not quite as good as before.
My prediction: if (when?) Chase gets sacked for another 3 and out, we see a Rubenzer-like substitution of Glover to "switch things up......" Best case, though, we can run at least somewhat effectively, and we mix up our pass attempts to keep TCU guessing..... Go Bears!!!
I want to see more wildcat with McIlwain
Funny thing about an elite lockdown corner - I don’t think it matters against our offense, as we can’t generate much against average defensive backs.
I thought the same thing in 2018-- TCU had an elite secondary, but they probably would have had similar results with a "pretty good" one too. However, as I was going through the defense, it did make me feel a bit better. They have a lot of question marks on their defense -- their right defensive end, their linebacker, their safeties, etc. Of course, these players could also turn out to be future NFL stars, but they've yet to be tested. It probably won't be us who tests them, but I guess we'll see.
Horton was actually winning the battle over Coleman early in camp, and with Coleman not looking like he will return any time soon, Dylan will be the guy opposite Ochaun for a while. He is the most physically imposing player I have seen on a TCU defense in a while, and I think he has a chance to be really good. Mathis, on the other hand, might be the best defensive end in the conference by the time the season ends. Daniels is not going to play, and might not see the field all season. He has some of the dreaded off the field stuff going on, and details are scarce as to what they are. It's not good, though, and folks are concerned about his well-being. Dee Winters has a chance to be the next elite linebacker, but I will be shocked if Harris lines up next to him to start. Jamoi Hodge outplayed Wyatt week one and has been our pick to start alongside Dee all offseason. The safeties might be the deepest group (it's a toss up between that and the line) as they legit go two deep at each position. Losing Moehrig/Washington hurts, but Clark/LVZ/Bradford/Carter/Foster are all really good players. Not superstars, but solid and don't make a ton of mistakes -- though you can about guarantee a 15 yard penalty for Van Zandt weekly.
That's fair, I appreciate your insight. I have to say that at Cal we have seen plenty of guys who look great in camp, but then it doesn't translate over to the field. So to me, until it happens on the the field, it doesn't count. 😉
Similarly, there are guys who are quite obviously physically talented (for example, I'm super high on Oregon defensive back Mykael Wright), but they still make mistakes in coverage when they're younger and still learning the position. So I think any time you lose someone with e.g. Moehrig's experience, it hurts.
Totally fair. Foster, Bradford, and LVZ have played a lot in the last two seasons (Washington missed time last year), so I have seen enough of them to have faith that they can get the job done. Clark is a wildcard but he's been my football crush since he signed so I am super high on him. But yeah, we didn't learn much from La Tech or Duquesne so tomorrow is going to reveal a lot about this team before SMU/Texas.
MT, you're a fun person to have around!
I appreciate that!! I’m much more fun from a distance haha.
Great write-up and analysis Christopher. I hope we'll see a re-shuffled offense from the Bears considering our struggles last Saturday, but this defense seems like a tough test. Whether we can break out and execute some big plays is an open question.
The 4-2-5 is increasingly popular these days as a defense meant to stop the now-dominant spread offense. Nevada and TCU both run it, UCLA runs it, Washington State runs it, ASU and Utah run both a 4-3 and 4-2-5, USC runs a variant of it (3-3-5, but a nickel-focused defense, popular in the Big 12, e.g. Iowa State), Washington runs their own unique variant of it (2-4-5, also a nickel base defense), but a lot of defenses borrow concepts from it.
Prior to the emergence of the spread, a nickel defense (nickel = 5, for the 5th defensive back) was something you'd only see in obvious passing situations (e.g. 3rd and long), and the nickel would be the 5th best defensive back on the team, i.e. not starter quality. There were a couple of high-profile games that led to the rise of the spread offense that took advantage of this, e.g. 2005 Texas's win over USC in the Rose Bowl (BCS National Championship), 2006 Florida smashing Ohio State the next year in the BCS National Championship, etc. Pete Carroll's USC ran a 4-3, but Texas's spread offense stressed USC's talented linebackers (like Brian Cushing), and USC eventually adjusted by rotating in an extra (nickel) defender, Ryan Ting, a former 3-star recruit, to combat the spread offense (leaving some of USC's most talented players on the bench). USC lost 41-38, but what if they had recruited one less talented linebacker for one more talented defensive back? Even still, the nickel was a matchup to take advantage of-- if you recall Mike Leach's "run game", they'd throw it out wide to a running back. So short swing passes wide to a big strong RB or WR against an undersized defensive back, who do you think is going to win?
Consequently, the spread offense exploded the following year, in 2007 (this is why so many new offensive records were set in that year). And like USC and Ohio State learned, you needed a highly-talented nickel defender to stop the spread, not just someone who was your 5th best defensive back on the team. While nickel used to be pejorative (you're the 5th best), it was renamed as it became the centerpiece of a defense-- Michigan's Jabrill Peppers, the hybrid linebacker/safety, played a position called "the Viper." Nick Saban calls the position the "Star". At TCU, it's the "strong" safety (note that their two LBs are actually Sam and Mike linebackers). Teams found that by putting a star player in the position, they would be in the middle of the field where they could cause the most amount of havoc around them (like LSU's Tyrian Mathieu in 2011), while sometimes a super talented safety will be too deep to help, or a lockdown corner (like Mathieu was) is only shutting down one player.
So to answer your question, we'll see this defense again, but Patterson is one of its key innovators (especially with how common spread offenses are in the Big 12). It's become increasingly common these days to fight the spread, which is why you'll see a lot more "nickel" defenders these days.