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I feel like the spread in this game represents some summation of the likelihoods that various events (opt outs, unknown QB play, etc) happen more than an accurate prediction of the game (24-23 Cal if you go by the spread and O/U). I am not sure how highly motivated they may be--this 10-2 UNLV team was one game away from the playoffs (MWC championship) and their consolation prize is to face a 6-6 Cal. Their offense and defense both heavily rely on one player (WR Ricky White, LB Jackson Woodard) who may opt out of a meaningless bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft. (For what it's worth, I believe Woodard said he'd play, but couldn't find any announcements about White). Plus, their head coach was already hired away by Purdue, and the WR coach I believe is the interim coach for the bowl game. I think any of those factors may impact motivation for the bowl game.

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Great points. It’s true this matchup could be a big letdown for the Rebs. It’s just a weird time for every team not in the playoff, with the portal being open right before bowl games and, simultaneously, many coaches on the move.

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