After a gritty win to cap Homecoming weekend, there is a dangerous smell in the air. It is a faint and fickle one to be sure, foreign to this fanbase for much of this year, and fleeting during the month of October for the last 10 years.
Yes, dear reader, the sultry scent of hope returns to Strawberry Canyon. To prove that the new-look Cal offense marks a true breaking point for the program, they will have to employ all manner of witchcraft to defeat the ACC’s hottest new kids on the block: The Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Wake has garnered headlines as a surprise contender, and it is no less surprising that they are Cal’s first-ranked opponent. Their task will be to eviscerate any further development of optimism when they arrive in Berkeley for an after-dark showdown.
During his second season, Head Coach Jake Dickert has done well running things in Winston-Salem. On the defensive side of the house, he has Scottie Hazelton and Safeties coach Freddie Banks share Defensive Coordinator duties. Hazelton has both a Lorax-approved beard (see here) and a strong pedigree of running P4 defenses (Michigan State and K-State). Banks has equally substantial coaching experience at lower levels of college football (Montana State and Colorado State). Far and away, the most impressive aspect of the Wake Forest defensive staff has been the halftime adjustments. Against Louisville, NC State, and Miami, the Deacs struggled in the first half but played lights out in the second.
The intriguing fact about Wake Forest from a defensive perspective is that in both strength and weakness, they heavily mirror the Virginia Tech defense. Like the Hokies, Wake’s top line statistics are very solid. They rank in the top 40 nationally in yards allowed per game and opponent yards per play. The driving force behind that accomplishment is their stout rushing defense, ranking in the top 20 nationally in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry.
Anchoring the group responsible for this success is DL Langston Hardy. The senior UConn transfer has 4.5 sacks and 9 TFLs through the first six games. Another impact player in this phase of the game is LB Vincent Firenze. After transferring from Dayton, he has had a breakout first half of the season. Firenze earned PFF Team of the Week and two-time ACC LB of the week honors by leading the Deacons in turnovers created and total tackles.
In the same vein as Cal’s previous opponent, Wake Forest struggles to create turnovers, with just four on the year. In fact, their entire secondary has generated just a single INT through the first half of the season. That doesn’t mean they will be without talented playmakers, such as senior captain Davaughn Patterson. The safety has played all four years of ball in Winston- Salem, consistently receiving high marks from PFF in both coverage and tackling. (Interestingly, his brother Joshua Patterson transferred to the program and plays in the secondary as well.) Another player to watch for is DB Somad Eaddy, who has proven himself as a solid enough corner to earn a starting job as a true freshman.
Wake Forest does an excellent job limiting explosive plays and scoring a high Havoc Rate (a measure of how frequently a defense can create disruptive plays). A key factor contributing to this is their pass rush. The Demon Deacons rank third in the conference in sacks, presenting a significant test for a Cal offensive line that made promising strides last week.
Areas of vulnerability for Wake Forest are red zone performance and opponent passing success. The Deacs have allowed opposing teams to score 90% of the time when they have the ball inside their 20-yard line. More existentially troubling for them is the 76% completion percentage that they have ceded to opposing QBs. Given the nature of Cal’s pass-first offense, that could translate to a very high rate of successful plays.
Overall, Wake Forest’s defense is a top-tier ACC unit that will likely extend the struggles of Cal’s anemic rushing attack and get home with its front four in the pass rush. However, the danger for the Deacons is that if their offense cannot blow the Bears out of the water quickly, their defensive unit is unlikely to land decisive blows against a virtually pass-only offense. Expect Cal to be able to move the ball decently well against this secondary. However, if the Wake Forest offense continues to explode, the Bears may find that this defensive group could render a comeback extremely difficult. From a longer-term perspective, Wake Forest has a more than competent enough defense to provide a decent lens on how the new play calling of Pat McCann is faring. If Cal is able to generate consistency against this defense, regardless of the final score, that should be a very encouraging sign in Berkeley.
According to Paws, JKS will be the starter this Saturday. It will be interesting to see how much development has occurred in the last 2 weeks.
In spite of this information I predict a decent running game and a prolific passing game for Cal this Saturday night. It is a Cal mid season renaissance. Or something like that, anyway, Go Bears!