Great writeup, but I am a sell on Wilcox. Seemingly great guy, looks awesome in Cal gear, but the results speak for themselves. His record in the conference is now a putrid 11-21, meaning for every win he loses two. Let's face it, the conference has not been that good since his time here. The traditional powerhouses like UCLA, USC and Washington have been sputtering, and even Oregon has not been great until maybe this year. And we have reached an all-time level of stinkeroo in the PAC this year with Washington State, Arizona and Colorado all ranked below Cal in the Colley Matrix rankings that supposedly take emotion out of how teams are evaluated.
I think Drew nailed it on maybe the biggest knock on Wilcox' tenure here: player development. Other guys like Jonathan Smith at OSU and Kyle Whittingham at Utah are doing a far better job of coaching up their 3-stars that dominate the rosters of the lower tier conference schools. (Cal only had one player selected in the draft this year - Cam Bynum.) Wilcox was winning a lot of those close games in 2018 and 2019, and he's been going the other way the last two seasons. If he cannot produce at least four conference wins the rest of the way in a critical year 5 of his tenure, he needs to go in the off season.
Do people just forge the coaches the same players from a sonny dykes defense under kaufman to one of the best in the conference in two years? I’m pretty sure that’s player development.
Yep....and here's my parallel comparison. Jeff Tedford was a quarterback whisperer when he arrived at Cal, taking Kyle Boller from the ashes to a number one draft pick in one year. We all know what happened next with Aaron Rodgers - remember when Tedford changed his throwing motion starting with the high arm cock? It was all beautiful again with Nate Longshore in the 2007 season with epic wins over Tennessee and Oregon. And then everything changed when Longshore rolled his ankle in the Oregon game. Suddenly the whisperer was gone, and along came Riley, Mansion and Maynard
I don't know what the change moment was for Wilcox - maybe when DeRuyter started to back away and accepted a co-defensive coordinator role - but things clearly aren't the same. And suddenly all those close wins are morphing to close losses.
Player development is killer here...Cal just isn't going to get a lot of ready-to-play 4/5 star recruits. But the type of player and character that can be recruited should be very amenable to development.
What worries me is if Cal keeps changing coaches a "system" will never have enough time to actually work. I guess I hope that the Bears can eventually develop a program more akin to Northwestern, Wisconsin, Boise--teams that are never really at the top of the recuiting rankings (though it wouldn't hurt to get a few blue chips)--teams that have a consistent year to year plug and play roster.
Then again, have you seen WIsconsin this year. Ope.
In addition, for the first time since the 2000s, I think the Cal Administration has done a decent job in not distracting the Cal football program. Tedford had to deal with the stadium build out and politics that come with it, Dykes had to deal with the politics of overall athletic budget cuts and cleaning up the academic mess Tedford left behind. Wilcox inherited a program that needed fixing, primarily on defense, but the focus (at least on the surface) has always been on the field related football program itself.
I was hopeful and excited for Wilcox, but some of the negabears' prediction of Wilcox's hire has come true: Wilcox will end up being a ~.500 coach and we'll get to bowl games but never ascend to the top of the program.
Hell, I would be happy with a .500 coach who gets to bowl games on a consistent basis. But let's remember that the only reason that Wilcox is even close to being a 500 coach right now is that he got lucky with the non conference schedule in his first three seasons. He got to play struggling North Carolina twice and struggling Mississippi twice. His conference record is .343. Not good enough for a guy pulling down $3 million a year.
The question is: how can cal attract the right coach who can take us to that next level? Our reputation (e.g., faculty support or lack of, the fan base or lack of, the pay compared to other p5 programs) makes us a less desirable place to coach.
Maybe we just take a drive east over the Yolo causeway and look up a guy named Troy Taylor. He's a proven offensive mind with coordinator stints at Eastern Washington and Utah. He took a pay cut to prove his head coaching bonafides at Sac State. And he's a Cal alum who loves the environment. Already in his early fifties, he would probably not be looking over his shoulder for the next higher paying job somewhere else. And he's a Cal grad, so smart enough to go out and find a good defensive coordinator. And if he ended up being a .500 guy, at least we would have some fun watching that cannon go off on a more regular basis at Memorial.
That’s under the assumption it gets to what you expect if we’re changing our HC every 3-5 years we’re not getting anywhere. We not have the finances or the pull of a program to do that.
He would move. I know I will offend some Sacramento residents here, but the place is in decay. Red Lobsters and Olive Gardens on every strip mall corner and some of the crappiest winter and summer weather known to mankind. I should know, I grew up there and visit a lot because my mother still lives in Roseville.
I think the support during the Wilcox era has been pretty consistent. Sure there are some AWOL professors out there but Carol Christ has been a big supporter, even leading cheers in the student section. Justin has not had to deal with the tree-sitters and other absurd factions. So at this point, as they should be, our expectations need to be higher.
Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.
Maya Angelou
Over last 60 years:
22 winning seasons
10 8+ win seasons
(We can thank Tedford for most of both above stats..)
2 conference championships
0 Rose Bowls
Institutionally and across the football fan base there is a quiet expectation and acceptance of this status quo. “A ‘B-/C+ at Cal is a good grade in football or classes because it’s a tough place to be” seems to be widely acceptable to most fans and administration. Each year we get a standout recruit or two with a promise of broad over-achievement, but with few exceptions most turn out slightly above average but content with the experience and being able to say ‘I made it through Cal’. Our historical record doesn’t fill the cupboard with 4* recruits. Most coaches of late show some promise before they stumble onto a 3-6 or 4-5 season and two years later ZAP - they are gone. Not a pitch an AD wants to make trying to recruit a new hire… Our visions are lofty, but Grit is what we learn to stand on. One thing every Cal football fan learns: there is always next year! Need to stay the course (for once..) to see what happens and give Wilcox a chance to grow..
Those shopping for a new head coach place far too much trust in the administration and the fan base. Unless Carol Christ makes a top level football coach her life mission, I think the only way we go is down if we make a coaching change.
Half the university despises football. The AD has show zero willingness to make any productive change on the basketball front. There is zero creative support for making the fan experience better, zero understanding that most fans love tradition and the band.
Great writeup, but I am a sell on Wilcox. Seemingly great guy, looks awesome in Cal gear, but the results speak for themselves. His record in the conference is now a putrid 11-21, meaning for every win he loses two. Let's face it, the conference has not been that good since his time here. The traditional powerhouses like UCLA, USC and Washington have been sputtering, and even Oregon has not been great until maybe this year. And we have reached an all-time level of stinkeroo in the PAC this year with Washington State, Arizona and Colorado all ranked below Cal in the Colley Matrix rankings that supposedly take emotion out of how teams are evaluated.
I think Drew nailed it on maybe the biggest knock on Wilcox' tenure here: player development. Other guys like Jonathan Smith at OSU and Kyle Whittingham at Utah are doing a far better job of coaching up their 3-stars that dominate the rosters of the lower tier conference schools. (Cal only had one player selected in the draft this year - Cam Bynum.) Wilcox was winning a lot of those close games in 2018 and 2019, and he's been going the other way the last two seasons. If he cannot produce at least four conference wins the rest of the way in a critical year 5 of his tenure, he needs to go in the off season.
Do people just forge the coaches the same players from a sonny dykes defense under kaufman to one of the best in the conference in two years? I’m pretty sure that’s player development.
Yep....and here's my parallel comparison. Jeff Tedford was a quarterback whisperer when he arrived at Cal, taking Kyle Boller from the ashes to a number one draft pick in one year. We all know what happened next with Aaron Rodgers - remember when Tedford changed his throwing motion starting with the high arm cock? It was all beautiful again with Nate Longshore in the 2007 season with epic wins over Tennessee and Oregon. And then everything changed when Longshore rolled his ankle in the Oregon game. Suddenly the whisperer was gone, and along came Riley, Mansion and Maynard
I don't know what the change moment was for Wilcox - maybe when DeRuyter started to back away and accepted a co-defensive coordinator role - but things clearly aren't the same. And suddenly all those close wins are morphing to close losses.
That was the old coaching staff w/ DeRuyter and Alexander...current version hasn't been cutting it so far. Maybe patience is in order.
Player development is killer here...Cal just isn't going to get a lot of ready-to-play 4/5 star recruits. But the type of player and character that can be recruited should be very amenable to development.
What worries me is if Cal keeps changing coaches a "system" will never have enough time to actually work. I guess I hope that the Bears can eventually develop a program more akin to Northwestern, Wisconsin, Boise--teams that are never really at the top of the recuiting rankings (though it wouldn't hurt to get a few blue chips)--teams that have a consistent year to year plug and play roster.
Then again, have you seen WIsconsin this year. Ope.
In addition, for the first time since the 2000s, I think the Cal Administration has done a decent job in not distracting the Cal football program. Tedford had to deal with the stadium build out and politics that come with it, Dykes had to deal with the politics of overall athletic budget cuts and cleaning up the academic mess Tedford left behind. Wilcox inherited a program that needed fixing, primarily on defense, but the focus (at least on the surface) has always been on the field related football program itself.
I was hopeful and excited for Wilcox, but some of the negabears' prediction of Wilcox's hire has come true: Wilcox will end up being a ~.500 coach and we'll get to bowl games but never ascend to the top of the program.
Hell, I would be happy with a .500 coach who gets to bowl games on a consistent basis. But let's remember that the only reason that Wilcox is even close to being a 500 coach right now is that he got lucky with the non conference schedule in his first three seasons. He got to play struggling North Carolina twice and struggling Mississippi twice. His conference record is .343. Not good enough for a guy pulling down $3 million a year.
I agree with you.
The question is: how can cal attract the right coach who can take us to that next level? Our reputation (e.g., faculty support or lack of, the fan base or lack of, the pay compared to other p5 programs) makes us a less desirable place to coach.
Maybe we just take a drive east over the Yolo causeway and look up a guy named Troy Taylor. He's a proven offensive mind with coordinator stints at Eastern Washington and Utah. He took a pay cut to prove his head coaching bonafides at Sac State. And he's a Cal alum who loves the environment. Already in his early fifties, he would probably not be looking over his shoulder for the next higher paying job somewhere else. And he's a Cal grad, so smart enough to go out and find a good defensive coordinator. And if he ended up being a .500 guy, at least we would have some fun watching that cannon go off on a more regular basis at Memorial.
That’s under the assumption it gets to what you expect if we’re changing our HC every 3-5 years we’re not getting anywhere. We not have the finances or the pull of a program to do that.
He would move. I know I will offend some Sacramento residents here, but the place is in decay. Red Lobsters and Olive Gardens on every strip mall corner and some of the crappiest winter and summer weather known to mankind. I should know, I grew up there and visit a lot because my mother still lives in Roseville.
I think the support during the Wilcox era has been pretty consistent. Sure there are some AWOL professors out there but Carol Christ has been a big supporter, even leading cheers in the student section. Justin has not had to deal with the tree-sitters and other absurd factions. So at this point, as they should be, our expectations need to be higher.
Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.
Maya Angelou
Over last 60 years:
22 winning seasons
10 8+ win seasons
(We can thank Tedford for most of both above stats..)
2 conference championships
0 Rose Bowls
Institutionally and across the football fan base there is a quiet expectation and acceptance of this status quo. “A ‘B-/C+ at Cal is a good grade in football or classes because it’s a tough place to be” seems to be widely acceptable to most fans and administration. Each year we get a standout recruit or two with a promise of broad over-achievement, but with few exceptions most turn out slightly above average but content with the experience and being able to say ‘I made it through Cal’. Our historical record doesn’t fill the cupboard with 4* recruits. Most coaches of late show some promise before they stumble onto a 3-6 or 4-5 season and two years later ZAP - they are gone. Not a pitch an AD wants to make trying to recruit a new hire… Our visions are lofty, but Grit is what we learn to stand on. One thing every Cal football fan learns: there is always next year! Need to stay the course (for once..) to see what happens and give Wilcox a chance to grow..
Those shopping for a new head coach place far too much trust in the administration and the fan base. Unless Carol Christ makes a top level football coach her life mission, I think the only way we go is down if we make a coaching change.
Half the university despises football. The AD has show zero willingness to make any productive change on the basketball front. There is zero creative support for making the fan experience better, zero understanding that most fans love tradition and the band.