Buy, Hold, Sell: Weeks 3 & 4 Cal Football Edition
Did the UW loss mark the beginning of the end?
Source: Cal Football
Apologies for missing last week - I was in New York on a work trip so it’s weeks 3 & 4 in one article.
The times have certainly changed from 2018 and 2019 when defensive strength meant that virtually any lead was safe. I falsely assumed this against Sacramento State when Nikko Remigio returned the kickoff to the house to go up 28-6. I was in an Uber heading into Manhattan watching the game on my phone, and when he took it all the way I put my phone down and decided to enjoy the city. Roughly two hours later, I nearly spit out my sake at a Korean BBQ place in midtown when I checked the score - 42 to 30. We gave up over 400 yards passing to an FCS school?
A week later, back safe at home in Santa Monica, I experienced a wave of emotions during the UW game as both sides of the ball ebbed and flowed between strong performance and costly mistakes. By the time Damien Moore fumbled on the goal line - I was exhausted. Though there have been plenty of rough seasons in my almost two decades of Cal fandom, this is the most emotional draining one. There are many things I can attribute it to, but the overarching question is this: in year 5 of the Wilcox era, is this as good as it gets?
Hold: Wilcox on the hot seat.
I wrote after the Nevada game that while Wilcox’s seat wasn’t yet hot, but it was warming. A competitive loss on the road in Pac-12 play isn’t going to get him on the hot seat, but the program trajectory is troubling. When I look at the 3 main reasons for making a coaching change, Wilcox is hitting all of them.
-A poor on the field record
-Recruiting momentum gone sideways
-Dwindling fan support
When will he officially be on the hot seat? At this point, we have to take it one game at a time. However, a loss to Washington State this weekend would get him there. We need to start winning, like right now.
Buy: Bill Musgrave
I’ll voice my support for Coach Musgrave. Despite a bumpy start against Nevada, I think he has done a great job the past 3 games. It’s too bad we didn’t have him around for 2018 and 2019, it would have been fun to see what that team could have done with a competent offense. It hasn’t been perfect, but given the identity of this team is supposed to be defensive-oriented, I think Musgrave has met and exceeded his expectations.
Sell: Special Teams miscues
The mistakes on special teams need to stop. I don’t need to remind anyone reading this article that there were plenty of costly errors in 2020, and that has continued into 2021. It’s made a major impact on all 3 losses, but especially TCU and UW. Responsibility for consistent mistakes like this are all on coaching, and Charlie Ragle needs to fix things quickly. Amazingly, Charlie Ragle is the only original member of Wilcox’s 2017 coaching staff. A bad sign?
Sell: Injuries
It’s been brutal seeing how many key players have gone down completely or dinged up. Is this a valid excuse for the poor start? Kind of. I think the only legitimate excuse for losing games due to injury is 1) when your starting quarterback goes down 2) you need to go to the third string guy at multiple positions. Outside of QB, injuries are a part of football and it’s the head coach’s job to recruit and develop enough talent to have players step in when needed. That has been a weak spot in Wilcox’s tenure, and you’re seeing the result of that now.
Great writeup, but I am a sell on Wilcox. Seemingly great guy, looks awesome in Cal gear, but the results speak for themselves. His record in the conference is now a putrid 11-21, meaning for every win he loses two. Let's face it, the conference has not been that good since his time here. The traditional powerhouses like UCLA, USC and Washington have been sputtering, and even Oregon has not been great until maybe this year. And we have reached an all-time level of stinkeroo in the PAC this year with Washington State, Arizona and Colorado all ranked below Cal in the Colley Matrix rankings that supposedly take emotion out of how teams are evaluated.
I think Drew nailed it on maybe the biggest knock on Wilcox' tenure here: player development. Other guys like Jonathan Smith at OSU and Kyle Whittingham at Utah are doing a far better job of coaching up their 3-stars that dominate the rosters of the lower tier conference schools. (Cal only had one player selected in the draft this year - Cam Bynum.) Wilcox was winning a lot of those close games in 2018 and 2019, and he's been going the other way the last two seasons. If he cannot produce at least four conference wins the rest of the way in a critical year 5 of his tenure, he needs to go in the off season.
Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.
Maya Angelou
Over last 60 years:
22 winning seasons
10 8+ win seasons
(We can thank Tedford for most of both above stats..)
2 conference championships
0 Rose Bowls
Institutionally and across the football fan base there is a quiet expectation and acceptance of this status quo. “A ‘B-/C+ at Cal is a good grade in football or classes because it’s a tough place to be” seems to be widely acceptable to most fans and administration. Each year we get a standout recruit or two with a promise of broad over-achievement, but with few exceptions most turn out slightly above average but content with the experience and being able to say ‘I made it through Cal’. Our historical record doesn’t fill the cupboard with 4* recruits. Most coaches of late show some promise before they stumble onto a 3-6 or 4-5 season and two years later ZAP - they are gone. Not a pitch an AD wants to make trying to recruit a new hire… Our visions are lofty, but Grit is what we learn to stand on. One thing every Cal football fan learns: there is always next year! Need to stay the course (for once..) to see what happens and give Wilcox a chance to grow..