Part 1: Finally Something New Under the Sun
Part 2: The Offense
Part 3: The Defense
Part 4: Special Teams and Schedule
You will note a cavernous gap between the best and worst case scenarios imagined below. As noted ad nauseum, the ceiling and the floor for Cal football are much higher/lower than we have seen in quite some time.
That’s in part because Cal has a schedule full of teams that have roughly similar expectations and projected rankings as the Bears, meaning that if Cal is a little bit better than projected, there are a ton of winnable games . . . but if Cal is a little bit worse than projected, there are a ton of losable games.
In just a few days, we’ll start to find out which universe we occupy.
Best Case Scenario
Jimmies and Joes, not Xs and Os, right? There is not a quarterback in college football with more arm talent than Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and in year two that arm talent combines with a stronger supporting cast and better processing skills for a massive season.
Cal’s offense isn’t perfect – the running game is merely average, and there are occasional pass protection issues. But the Bears are explosive and much more efficient, and the sheer talent makes this the best offensive unit since Jared Goff and Sonny Dykes lit scoreboards on fire in 2015.
Meanwhile, Cal’s bet on as-yet unrealized high school recruiting pedigree pays off on defense. The physical measurements of Cal’s defensive Jimmies and Joes translate to on-field production. Jericho Johnson is the disruptive interior lineman Justin Wilcox could never recruit. Solomon Williams is the consistent edge rusher Wilcox could never recruit. Tristan Jernigan and/or AJ Tuitele and/or Kamar Mothudi more or less match the error rate of Cade Uluave and Luke Ferrelli, with a higher athletic floor and more active play-making. Cal’s front six make more plays, in support of a back five that has some veteran presence and maintains the level of secondary play fans grew accustomed to under Wilcox.
When you combine the above with a schedule that is chock full of average to slightly-below-average power conference teams, the wins stack up.
In week 1, Cal faces a UCLA team that is in many ways a mirror image. In an evenly matched game, the Bears pull it out because they have a clear advantage at the position that matters most: JKS makes more plays, Nico Iamaleava makes more mistakes, and the season starts on a high with an emotional rivalry win in front of a packed house.
Cal keeps the momentum rolling with a solid road win over a rebuilding Syracuse, dispatches Wagner, and rolls into a Friday night showcase with Clemson at 3-0. With the eyes of college football on Berkeley, the Bears control the game all the way through for a landmark win to jump into the top 25. It’s an early proof-of-concept for the Lupoi era.
UNLV on the road feels like a trap game after a big win, but the Bears ultimately just have too much talent for a non-power team and escape Vegas with a narrow win, then move to 6-0 against Virginia Tech as they dispatch another east coast team who can’t handle the 3,000 mile trip west. It’s the same story against Wake Forest at home as the Bears move to 7-0 and JKS starts getting Heisman buzz.
The brutal late season road trip ruins the good vibes – Cal is only able to win one out of three against SMU, NC State, and Virginia, falling to the Mustangs and Cavaliers. Still, an 8-2 record headed into Big Game keeps spirits high, and Cal crushes Stanford as JKS rests the entire 2nd half.
Heading into the final game of the regular season, the race for the ACC title game is a big mess behind undefeated Miami. But while Cal is busy dispatching Pitt, Virginia Tech beats Virginia to create a massive logjam at 7-2 . . . and Cal wins the tie-breaker.
In the ACC title game, Cal just doesn’t have the horses. JKS wows a national audience and convinces NFL draftniks that he’s the 2028 #1 pick, but Miami wins a high scoring barnburner, 45-35, and heads off to the playoffs as the #1 overall seed*.
Cal, at 10-3, is juuuust on the outside looking in for the final at-large spot in the playoffs, and heads to the Alamo Bowl as a just reward for a great season. In San Antonio, the Bears face TCU and Sonny Dykes, and simultaneously get revenge against their former head coach AND for the Cheez-It Bowl with a dominant win over the Horned Frogs** BYU and JKS again wows a national audience by slicing and dicing a highly ranked defense. After the game, JKS announces that he’s of course coming back to Cal for his junior season, while an army of Cal donors open up their pocket books to help build an even stronger roster than the team that just went 11-3.
*I swear I wrote this before The Athletic’s Mark Cooper predicted the same thing . . . but it does make me feel better that my best-case scenario isn’t so wild that a neutral journalist wouldn’t make the same prediction.
**I wrote this before TCU face planted in Ireland against UNC, very much NOT looking like a team that could make the Alamo Bowl.
Worst Case Scenario
(non-injury-hellstorm-edition)
Football, as many point out, is a weak-link game. A great running back isn’t useful if he gets no blocking. A great pass rush can only do so much if the secondary can’t stop a screen play. One lock down corner is useful, but only goes so far if the other corner can be relentlessly picked on.
In Cal’s worst case scenario, weak links hamstring Cal’s abilities on both sides of the ball. Offensive line issues mean that Cal’s 2026 offense looks pretty similar to Cal’s 2025 offense. JKS makes crazy throws, and Cal’s skill position guys make plays, but the offense has just as many drives derailed by backwards plays blown up at the line. The Bears are still a year away from rebuilding the offensive line.
On defense, Cal has some breakout players who start to realize their potential. But there are players in each position group who aren’t able to translate their physical talent to on-field production, and opponents are able to target and exploit those weak spots. Opponents figure out where to run against Cal’s front. Offensive coordinators identify mismatches in the secondary. The defense isn’t a disaster, but competent teams can exploit Cal’s weaknesses. The Bears are still a year away from fully fleshing out the starting lineup and the two deep.
The year starts with a tough loss to UCLA. The Bruins, full of veteran Chesney guys, look cohesive and execute well as a team. Cal, full of players who are learning to play together, under a new coaching staff, are plagued by busts and mistakes.
The Bears bounce back with a narrow win over Syracuse and easily beat Wagner, but can’t out-talent Clemson in a Friday night showcase and are caught on the road by a UNLV team who throw the kitchen sink into their only game against a power program. With a non-power playoff spot on the line, the Rebels deal Cal a painful road loss.
With the bloom already off the season and a fickle fan base checking out, Cal loses to James Franklin and a revitalized Virginia Tech in Berkeley. Cal bounces back with an ugly, grind-it-out defeat of Wake Forest. But the brutal fall road run of SMU-NC St.-Virginia results in a three game losing streak that kills bowl eligibility.
With the season all but dead, Cal comes out flat against a fiestier-than-expected Stanford, losing the Big Game for the 2nd year in a row. With nothing to play for, Cal falls to Pitt in front of acres of empty seats in the annual Big Game/Thanksgiving hangover game to finish the season 3-9. The transfer portal departures after the season are myriad and too painful to ponder, and confidence is dented that donors can continue to foot the bill for a competitive NIL roster
Final Predictions
We’re again going position group by position group to predict improvement or regression from 2025:
QB: Easy call: JKS with a season of experience under his belt > JKS starting as a true freshman. Improvement
RB: Even ignoring the specific names on the roster in 2025 vs. 2026, you would expect improvement this year purely from a health perspective. That said, I do think that Cal has more talent at RB than last year. Improvement
WR: The easiest group to project as better, because the talent addition is so obvious. Ian Strong and Chase Hendricks would have *probably been WR 1 and 2 last year, and the depth should be stronger with a few other portal adds and returning options. Major improvement
TE: Getting Mason Mini back would have led to some improvement just from experience and development, but adding Dorian Thomas (plus Taimane Purcell, a 4 star high school recruit who has been getting some fall camp buzz) makes this a significantly deeper pass catching group. Improvement
OL: I have no clue if Jimothy Lewis will be the solution at right tackle, and I’m not sure how the camp battle is going at left tackle, but I think Cal’s options at tackle this year won’t be worse than the options in 2025. Meanwhile, the interior line has been set since late 2025 and is likely to see improvement just from continuity, chemistry, and development. Like last year, I’m concerned that there won’t be enough improvement, but the directional prediction is easy to make. Improvement
DL: Now this exercise gets harder. I expect Nate Burrell to play at a similar level as last year’s interior linemen. So: will Jericho Johnson’s sheer talent outperform the unspectacular veteran consistency Cal got from T.J. Bollers and Aidan Keanaaina? I say yes. Improvement
OLB: Ryan McCulloch’s early season injury hampered Cal badly at this position last year, and TJ Bush was really the only consistent performer. Bush is now in Minnesota, and McCulloch is with UCLA, and Cal brought in a bevy of new players who could potentially outperform what Cal actually got at this position last year . . . but are too unproven for me to predict improvement. Push
ILB: On one hand, Cal lost incumbent starters to BYU and Ole Miss respectively, and are replacing them with unproven youngsters, which sounds like a recipe for major regression. On the other hand, I just wasn’t that impressed with what Cal got from Cade Uluave and Luke Ferrelli last year, where trouble with ILB run game fits hurt badly all season long. Cal had one of the worst rushing defenses in the conference last year and ILB play was certainly a part of that. Push
Secondary: Cal will probably improve at the safety position, where the return of a healthy Isaiah Crosby, solid portal additions and more experienced returning talent should make for a deep rotation. However, cornerback is a big question mark. While I don’t think Cal’s new corners will necessarily be a problem spot, the reality is that replacing the duo of Paco Austin and Zeke Masses is really difficult. I see mild Regression.
Special Teams: Cal will be replacing one good punt returner (de Jesus) with another (Hendricks) and bringing back a similar field goal unit. But I’m predicting improvement mostly because Cal’s new punter, Angus Davies, should be a step up on last year’s punting unit. Improvement
Wait, I’m predicting improvement from 7 position groups, two pushes, and only one regression? Is that right? Am I a hopeless homer, taken in by an off-season of relentless positivity?
Well, it’s worth remembering that 2025 Cal just wasn’t that good of a team. The Bears finished the season 80th in SP+, 79th in FEI, with a -56 point differential against FBS teams, and only got to a bowl game because the schedule was incredibly weak and the Bears were 4-1 in one score games. That Cal will be a more talented, competitive team is hardly going out on a limb. The question is how much better, and how much does any improvement translate into the win column.
There are only two teams on the schedule that strike me as clearly better than Cal - Virginia and SMU. There are only two teams that strike me as clearly worse than Cal - Wagner and Stanford. The season then comes down to eight games against teams that are more or less in Cal’s weight class.
Las Vegas says to expect 6.5 wins in the regular season. Ultimately there are too many unknowns in the two deep, on the coaching staff, and on Cal’s schedule to predict anything significantly beyond the sharps.
Remember the 2003 Cal football season? Sure, it had its ups and downs, but everybody could see the program trajectory. Put me down for an 8-4 regular season that builds lots of confidence and momentum for a 2027 season that will feature a lot of exciting talent coming back to Berkeley.