For Zeke specifically, I feel that he started to hurt more than help, especially as the season went on. He often gambled on making the big play instead of covering and/or tackling and ended up losing that gamble. I'd be totally cool with some corners that are less flashy but more sound and consistent.
I cannot believe he made the Raiders roster. He's certainly a ball hawk but he is so frightened of contact. Deion Sanders could do it (and also return punts) but not Masses. Not upset to bring in someone who wants to actually tackle.
The staff's ability to install a "pro-style offense" that the players can actually learn while also learning to play together is my biggest concern. It will be incredibly apparent in the opener.
Good call... agher. Cool thing in this case is that there's extra data since Coen came in as OC two different times, and both times did pretty well (2023 was a big turn around, though in 2021 he inherited a stalwart OL).
To go 8-4, the GBs need to come out of the gate hot for the first 4-5 games. The UNLV game in Vegas is a classic trap game - it will either be a huge boost to the program, or a realization that Cal is "another year away" from greatness... That is the game I believe will determine Berkeley's 2026 season... GO BEARS!
There is another element we cannot forget..the 12th man. Sell out and win this week, perform well against Clemson and the stands should be packed for the season. HUGE effect on outcomes, and an experience many recent fans/students have not felt first hand. Priceless...Go Bears forever baby!
Stanfurd game was interesting. Actually closer than the final score indicates. As we found out, Hawaii is not a bad team.
Warren was clutch down the stretch finding that big tight end several times for chunk gains. I want to declare that StanfUrdstinks, but they look like they might be OK.
Their fans, however, SUCK. Worse showing than U$C vs. SJSU...and that's tough to pull off. VCs should buy some people to attend the games. It's pathetic, especially since there's not all that much going on in Palo Alto.
3-9 and I fly to Japan to cosplay a defeated Samurai in front of US Embassy. I go painfully, but at least I leave The Calgorithm with a good meme about how the real pain was my cultural appropriation.
11-3 and I nearly die of happiness with nothing but my outrage about being left out of the playoffs to keep me on earth for next year.
Nice write up Nick; lets start that best case scenario with a win September 5th. But, heck, who knows how it will play out? Lots of talent and good coaches on both teams. I just feel like we will win it and it will be an exciting start to a great season. I am so looking forward to being there! Go Bears!
Below is from ESPN's simulation for the season. 1m simulations... including this one
Simulation No. 31,929: ACC living the dream
I wanted to find a scenario in which we get an all-ACC national title game that doesn't feature Miami. Because a million simulations is a whole lot of simulations, we got one! Unbeaten Cal beats Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, takes down No. 11 UNLV and No. 3 Notre Dame in the CFP before again meeting Virginia Tech in the national title game. Tosh Lupoi and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: national champions.
Like Nick I have no idea how this team will perform. Tosh gets high marks for recruiting and fundraising to date, but his biggest potential weakness is his lack of head coaching experience compounded by his choice of first time coordinators with little/no play calling experience. I could just as easily see the team being out coached and end up not making a bowl as I could that they improve over last year and end up with 8+ wins. If Tosh can get the players to play six seconds of hell we'll be "cooking with gasoline"....lol
You might add in Rivera and Rolo for their HC game day experience. There's also the fact many of the coaches have at least game day experience. I'm sure Tosh has seen the high pressure situation at bama and prepped the team for the unknown situation like up in oregon.
"replacing...Zeke Masses is really difficult"
For Zeke specifically, I feel that he started to hurt more than help, especially as the season went on. He often gambled on making the big play instead of covering and/or tackling and ended up losing that gamble. I'd be totally cool with some corners that are less flashy but more sound and consistent.
and tackle please.
100%
I cannot believe he made the Raiders roster. He's certainly a ball hawk but he is so frightened of contact. Deion Sanders could do it (and also return punts) but not Masses. Not upset to bring in someone who wants to actually tackle.
Great thoughts Nick!
I like your best case, but also agree there are sooo many unknown and maybe factors for us and our opponents (see furd vs Hawaii).
Nonetheless, excitement is at the max.
GO BEARS!
Beat ucla!!!!
You had me at Best Case Scenario. I stopped reading after that because why not?
The staff's ability to install a "pro-style offense" that the players can actually learn while also learning to play together is my biggest concern. It will be incredibly apparent in the opener.
Luckily the best example of this recently is Liam Coen with Kentucky, who just so happened to be Somerville's boss
Good call... agher. Cool thing in this case is that there's extra data since Coen came in as OC two different times, and both times did pretty well (2023 was a big turn around, though in 2021 he inherited a stalwart OL).
I like the cut of your jib, sailor.
I also like the Tosh Lupoi effect. I can't wait to see how he guides this talented team, the most connected team in college football!
To go 8-4, the GBs need to come out of the gate hot for the first 4-5 games. The UNLV game in Vegas is a classic trap game - it will either be a huge boost to the program, or a realization that Cal is "another year away" from greatness... That is the game I believe will determine Berkeley's 2026 season... GO BEARS!
I’ve got our tickets to the UNLV game already. Agree it will be a critical game to how this season plays out.
I'm going to that game too! Sick of the 7:30pm start times for Cal football!
There is another element we cannot forget..the 12th man. Sell out and win this week, perform well against Clemson and the stands should be packed for the season. HUGE effect on outcomes, and an experience many recent fans/students have not felt first hand. Priceless...Go Bears forever baby!
9-4 with a Holiday Bowl victory over Washington sets the stage for a championship run in 2028! Go Bears!
My goals: Regain the Axe, win eight or more regular season games, beat the powder blues, five or more wins at home, bowl win.
Stanfurd game was interesting. Actually closer than the final score indicates. As we found out, Hawaii is not a bad team.
Warren was clutch down the stretch finding that big tight end several times for chunk gains. I want to declare that StanfUrdstinks, but they look like they might be OK.
Their fans, however, SUCK. Worse showing than U$C vs. SJSU...and that's tough to pull off. VCs should buy some people to attend the games. It's pathetic, especially since there's not all that much going on in Palo Alto.
$C at least makes a little sense because it was super humid, 100+ degrees in the stadium and a sub par opponent. Furd fans just don't give a shit
I’ll take a mug of your 8-4 prediction kool-aid, Nick!
If one of those 8 is this Saturday then all the better!
Go Bears!
3-9 is unfathomable. I think 4 win season is the worst case scenario. 10 win is possible. Put me down in the 9 win column please.
I am concerned about Oline and the secondary. I’m concerned about the inexperience of the coaching staff.
But I’m reminded that we were not a good team last year and still won 7 games.
An improved JKS with less drops from receivers plus an improved running game and two more made field goals should translate into 1.5 more wins.
3-9 and I fly to Japan to cosplay a defeated Samurai in front of US Embassy. I go painfully, but at least I leave The Calgorithm with a good meme about how the real pain was my cultural appropriation.
11-3 and I nearly die of happiness with nothing but my outrage about being left out of the playoffs to keep me on earth for next year.
Nice write up Nick; lets start that best case scenario with a win September 5th. But, heck, who knows how it will play out? Lots of talent and good coaches on both teams. I just feel like we will win it and it will be an exciting start to a great season. I am so looking forward to being there! Go Bears!
8 wins for me.
Ratings:
37 in the Athletic and trending up (on pure enthusiasm) (UCLA below us at 65)
67 on the composite ranking (17 different ratings, range 58-80) (UCLA below us by a few)
60 ESPN FPI (fUCLA - 62)
AP 2 votes
Coaches poll 1 vote
ESPN FP+ (predictive- can't be assessed yet) Last year finished at 80.
51 Sagarin (fUCLA 36)
You are not a homer...
this best case is not the best of the best case..
Below is from ESPN's simulation for the season. 1m simulations... including this one
Simulation No. 31,929: ACC living the dream
I wanted to find a scenario in which we get an all-ACC national title game that doesn't feature Miami. Because a million simulations is a whole lot of simulations, we got one! Unbeaten Cal beats Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, takes down No. 11 UNLV and No. 3 Notre Dame in the CFP before again meeting Virginia Tech in the national title game. Tosh Lupoi and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: national champions.
cue in dr. strange holding up one finger
go bears.
Like Nick I have no idea how this team will perform. Tosh gets high marks for recruiting and fundraising to date, but his biggest potential weakness is his lack of head coaching experience compounded by his choice of first time coordinators with little/no play calling experience. I could just as easily see the team being out coached and end up not making a bowl as I could that they improve over last year and end up with 8+ wins. If Tosh can get the players to play six seconds of hell we'll be "cooking with gasoline"....lol
You might add in Rivera and Rolo for their HC game day experience. There's also the fact many of the coaches have at least game day experience. I'm sure Tosh has seen the high pressure situation at bama and prepped the team for the unknown situation like up in oregon.