I’m stressed. I’m happy. And I’m stressed again.
Let’s go back to last week real quick, even though it sucks.
The hype was there. The uniforms were back. The rivalry was rejuvenated! The expectations were also quickly brought back down to reality, and Golden Bears students, alumni, fans, and spectators around the world were reminded that the University of California is still not quite there as a football program.
Dimmed by an ominous green-hue and filter that could only be described as a Russo Brothers-inspired film-choice by ESPN, and with a stadium blasting sound that was drawing out the band and creating miscues across the crowd and players on the field, the brand-new California Golden Bears football team behind first year head coach Tosh Lupoi held strong enough for three quarters to remain tied against Bob Chesney in his first game as head coach of UCLA after leading James Madison to a Sun Belt championship and appearance in the College Football Playoffs, but loose tackles and mismatches were the difference maker – resulting in a UCLA victory of 45-24 in front of a sold-out California Memorial Stadium.
There were many wins within this loss, at least that’s what Rich Lyon’s Chancellor’s email to the UC Berkeley Alumni stated, as the passion in Berkeley was on full display with over 1,000,000 viewers tuned into a classic Pac-whatever after dark matchup. The disparity in attendance across the state between USC, Stanford, and this UC skirmish showed how energized not just Cal fans were in Strawberry Canyon, but UCLA fans as well, who showed up in large numbers to see their new beginning.
UCLA’s beginning obviously comes late in their Big 10 entrance compared to how prominent Oregon, USC, and even Washington have been, and with the help of 10 JMU players, a successful splash in the transfer portal by Bob Chesney, and a big rivalry win – the momentum feels up for the Bruins. Cal and Tosh Lupoi were able to snag a few Oregon players from their roster, work some late magic in the portal, and retain Wilcox’s best recruits, create some of the most generational hype, and recruit the best class Cal has seen in decades – but all of that felt like a blur after such a humiliating defeat.
UCLA is where Cal wants to be. Cal wants a seat at the big table in the Power 2 conferences in the Big 10 or SEC, and Cal has simply not earned it, while UCLA’s invitation came as a package with USC – also feeling like it has not been earned. But that does not matter now. They are at the table, and Cal is not. Cal has to earn their seat, and going 6-6 in the ACC is not how you earn national recognition (your seat).
The Bears dominated last season against Minnesota at home in their gold-out themed game to even their record since 2010 against Big10 teams at 3-3, but a loss to the team that was viewed as a gift-with-purchase to USC in front of a so-so TV crowd is bound to make those TV executives at Fox, CBS, and NBC turn their heads away from “Berkeley.”
What Cal is doing now is not sustainable at ~$20M/year in the ACC; we need to secure a seat in realignment - YOU KNOW THIS. How does Cal fix this right now?
WIN THE ACC. Win the conference, win the big games, win the easy games, and get a seat in the College Football Playoffs. A Team that can’t beat UCLA at home likely won’t win it all (at least not now), but the ACC has one giant in the way, and that is Miami. As far as the rest of the competition goes…Winnable… but for Cal?
But then we fast forward to yesterday. The vibes are “meh?” – high now after nearly pissing away a game that the Syracuse Orange were serving to the Bears on a platter, or better yet, the Orange threw this game away into the hands of Kingston Lopa, the Redshirt Sophomore out of Sacramento who Tosh took with him from Oregon to get valuable minutes in Berkeley rather than work the depth chart in Eugene.
Syracuse almost felt like Cal this game, as the Orange drove down the field with a chance to tie it at 21 apiece with a field goal; their kicker Tripp Woody missed his SECOND FG attempt of the game and second in the 4th quarter. Sloppy special teams mixed with a promising young QB such as Steve Angeli, who finished the game with 306 passing yards (24-49) with one TD and THREE Interceptions, as mentioned, all of which to Lopa, had the Orange leading 12-7 at the half and outplaying the Bears with 436 yards of total offense to Cal’s 249.
As I said, the Orange felt like Cal in this one. On the other hand, Cal REALLY felt like Cal. Cal’s defense in the last two quarters felt like it truly came alive and presented what Tosh Lupoi SHOULD be proficient in as far as coaching goes, but the special teams, weak offensive line, dropped passes, and weak first-half tackles felt like the Bears were continuing their miscues from the week prior.
Fran Brown and the Orange were coming off a lackluster 3-9 season entering week 1, and after dominating against New Hampshire (FCS), playing up-to-par against Cal after they nearly stole a win against a much better UCLA team who put the pedal to the metal in the fourth quarter while the Bears were tackling with what felt like their fingertips and blocking with their eyes closed. If Cal can “hold their own” for three quarters against JMUcla, then they sure as hell should not have made this game so close.
There is no path towards realignment if there is nothing to earn in this current alignment. Cal is in a situation where they have only two ranked opponents on their schedule this season, with SMU (16) and Virginia (25) both hosting the Golden Bears in the next couple of months, leaving crumbs of games in my eyes, where Cal should be blowing out their ACC peers, outside of Miami – who is simply in a league of their own right now.
Cal gets a reduced share in their current conference alignment situation, which is why being in the CFP while in the ACC isn't just about national exposure to get picked up for the next realignment cycle; it pays handsomely. The ACC is the only conference that allows their schools to keep all of their postseason performance payout revenue, meaning that just making it to the playoffs pays out $4 million, advancing pays another $4 million ($8 million total), continuing to the semis pays out another $6 million (now at $14 million), and reaching the national title game pays an additional $6 million to give an ACC team (not the conference, but just the team that made it) $20 million to take back to their program, which in Cal’s case, would double their current ACC-revenue share.
I can try and nitpick each detail of the game that was good, bad, and just plain ugly. But then I expose how little I know, and how much I complain. HOWEVER, the defense, and especially Cal defensive coordinator Michael Hutchings, who made some much-needed adjustments coming out of the second half to get at the frazzled Angeli and Cuse offense, deserves praise here to help Lupoi get his first career win. At the end of this game and going into every ACC conference matchup, Cal must adjust to grind out these winnable games when the marquee matchups against hype-generating teams (Miami and UCLA) remind us how much Cal is still Cal to the national audience.
While this win has given me the confidence to take on the week, it scares me down the stretch when the season has taken its toll, and mistakes at this level within this alignment will force the Bears out of a chance for a second look. Getting a couple of important games like UCLA and a conference matchup against Syracuse back-to-back to open the season is no easy feat that Cal’s genius administration has set them up for within this crucial time to stack wins, and at least Cal knows what path is feasible according to their abilities.
Only up from here, the ACC path is the way to go, and it is more than within reach. Onto Wagner. Thank you, Kingston Lopa, for saving this game and my weekend.
I get the vibe from WFC that the sky is falling after ucla and the win against Syracuse comes with a bunch of issues unresolved.
Am I wrong about this?
Imho the Cal defense improved substantially in the Syracuse game. Going to NY to play an EST game & winning is not a minor achievement. The Wagner game provides an excellent opportunity to fix any lingering issues & prime the Bears for more ACC play.
Speculating about realignment at this point is just that - speculation and nothing more.
Go Bears!
Well Cal ain't going anywhere with essentially the same o-line as last season. Poor Adam Mohammed was pummeled at the line of scrimmage on just about every run.