I get the vibe from WFC that the sky is falling after ucla and the win against Syracuse comes with a bunch of issues unresolved.
Am I wrong about this?
Imho the Cal defense improved substantially in the Syracuse game. Going to NY to play an EST game & winning is not a minor achievement. The Wagner game provides an excellent opportunity to work on improving O-line play.
IMO the WFC guys are right on. Anyone who watched the FUCLA game saw the difference in talent and coaching - and it was HUGE! Saturday's game looked like an FCS game, not a Power 4 game - with penalties galore, horrible 2 point conversion attempts, dropped passes (by Cal), and place kickers doinking everything. Against 'Cuse, Lopa had more yards from RAC than the GB O produced in rushing. And IMHO JKS has not looked like a world beater due to the O looking putrid overall. The preseason pundits were right to put Cal at about 10th in the ACC - as that is how they are playing right now. I love Tosh's approach and determination, but he may not have the time to build the program we all want when realignment comes. I don't want to see the GBs relegated to obscurity, but for right now, expect to see the GBs play the rest of their home games at 10:30pm EST (except for Wagner). I'm really sad, and sad to say that 'Cuse wanted to lose more than Cal on Saturday...
Why do we want to be in the BIG10? I have said this before, it's better to be a top team in the ACC than the lower half of the SEC or BIG10. Why? Recruiting. Top teams from all the P4 divisions get ranked. Bottom half teams don't. Ranked teams get TV primetime, bottom half teams don't. Top ranked teams get better bowl games, bottom half teams don't. Recruits know this and when the spots are filled at the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC and BIG10, kids start looking to the ACC and Big 12. All this means if it's easier for us to stay in the ACC and be a top team, then our recruiting will be better, especially with our academic reputation and great weather. Constantly being a top ACC school beats the hell out of being in the bottom half of the SEC or BIG10. And if we are a top team, the money will come. Even if our payout from the ACC isn't equal to the other two big conferences, in time our share will grow and our alumni support will be huge if we can field a top 20 program year in and year out. I'd prefer we were still in the PAC12, and I could actually see that happening again someday as the current teams become more competitive. It's all about talent and coaching. Talent fills a vacuum, especially where there is good NIL money and TV coverage. This talk about a 20 team super division is ridiculous. I think it would fail because fans would only watch the top four or 6 teams regularly. Having 4 power divisions is good for the game and for TV profits. (Having 5 would be better.)
It just comes down to our getting the most money and exposure possible. The ACC took us in when we were teetering on the edge of catastrophe, so there's that. There is something to be said for dancing with the gal who brought us to the party.
Because once the ACC breaks open, assuming major brands get poached, then the ACC becomes the PAC-12 and the current P4 protections it receives is no longer guaranteed.
What will force the ACC to break open. What other divisions want to split their paychecks even more ways than they are now? Which division is going to poach the ACC? And why would they do it? Even to pick up Miami they end up with other programs losing ground. You can't just build a division out of current top teams from all divisions because then lesser teams leave, other top teams become the new lesser teams of the division, their recruiting suffers, they go to lesser bowl games if they go at all, and their TV ratings suffer. Its a cycle and the top kids will always go to the top four or five teams in each division. The top kids won't waste their time with the lesser teams even in the SEC or BIG10. Its a self fulfilling cycle.
There are still schools out there that will lead to enough revenue growth for the B1G, and there are regional schools that the SEC will need to protect so they don't have to compete with the B1G regionally.
Miami is actually these least impressive. Same with Clemson. Those two feel like ACC powerhouses in the future.
FSU and UNC are the two crown jewels outside of ND, and ND is pretty much capped in what they can extract from NBC on their own. The ACC has too many schools that cannot compete at the highest levels when it comes to fundraising (BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pitt, NC State, GT) in addition to a bunch of middle-of-the-field teams (Louisville, Virginia, VT, Cal). Not sure where to put Duke or Stanford because they could if they wanted to.
With the tv money disparity, even if Cal ends up owning the ACC, we *will* be left behind and effectively become a farm team. It's not a long term path forward.
If we want our donors to stay invested, we need to find a way back to playing against USC, UCLA, UW, and UO weekly in a conference that actually pays us enough to compete with the best. We're already seeing the B1G and SEC trying to hijack the playoffs.
I think the overriding attraction for the best HS & CC players in 2026ff is how much money they'll get from the portal. Don't forget that Bowl money goes first to the schools. and players often skip bowls to remain healthy for the NFL draft. So the best players at Cal & their opponent considering to play in a bowl game has little to do with school loyalty.
We blew the last round of realignment by hitching our wagon to Wilcox for many years after it was apparent he was a perennial 0.500 coach (give or take). Is it too early to make such an assessment about Tosh? Of course it is. Buuuuut - we now know what lies around the bend in terms of realignment and the stakes are extremely high after we got left (almost) for dead the last time.
There simply isn't time for Tosh to grow into this role. If we're not hungry right now - this season - then the likely outcome of the next round of realignment looks more like Oregon State than UCLA for Cal.
Unfortunately this season has thus far looked a LOT like a Wilcox team and not much like a Tedford team. While it's not time to panic, I think it is time to be concerned. We get one tune up game, then a couple more winnable games. Unsure who VT is yet, they are untested in this iteration. Wake looks gettable. We'll know more about both VT and Wake before we play them. After that, there is a sigificant uptick in difficulty. If we're not clicking by the time we get @ SMU, @ NC State, and @ Virginia then we're looking at roughly a 0.500 season again, and any improvement towards the next realignment is pushed out yet another year.
If we do not go 8-4, it has to be considered a down season because recruits and talent on the team will be poached; this season is supposed to be an upswing with the talent and not playing Miami and having a semi-soft out of conference schedule. The UCLA loss demonstrates one team is in fact on the upswing and it wasn’t us.
Your comment is spot-on. We have to win now and then win more next year. That's the reality in 2026. Fortunately I believe Chancellor Lyons, Ron Rivera, Tosh and key donors all know how imperative it is to get to 8-9 wins this season. I don't recall the leadership team, from top to bottom ever being this strong.
To take a page from James Carville: “It’s the coaching, stupid!”
All the great college teams have great coaches and great coaching staffs. The Indiana Miracle of last year was built on great coaching; Chesney’s UCLA team is built on great coaching. Great coaches attract great players and great staff. The success of Alabama was built on great coaching that spawned numerous other great coaches who’ve built other great programs all over the country. Nick Saban supposedly told RR that Tosh was ready to take on the head coaching job at Cal. This may not be the breakout season we’d all hoped for, but if it’s not, next season sure as hell better be.
ACC sports writers had Cal pegged for 12th in the conference this year at the start of the saeson. We can still hope for higher, but improvement tends to come in steps and not leaps. More critical perhaps than how many games we win this season, is how many to the top high school recruits that have committed to Cal, sign on the dotted line during the early signing period in December. If we can keep that class together, lose a few/gain a few, Tosh and Co will have made a major step forward for the program's future.
Speculation, Schmeculation. You're absolutely right that at this point it's all about WIN THE NEXT GAME. Coach Lupoi constantly emphasizes "the process" and sometimes it takes time to get "the process" right. I'll settle for incremental improvement - across the board - this week, resulting in 60 minutes of consistent effort and a W.
Well Cal ain't going anywhere with essentially the same o-line as last season. Poor Adam Mohammed was pummeled at the line of scrimmage on just about every run.
I do not understand why funding for the conference is such an issue, given that the university's budget exceeds a billion dollars. A small fraction of that could be used for football. It appears the school administration lacks commitment to the football program. Investing in a strong football program can elevate the chance of getting into a top conference and ultimately help secure competitive opportunities for all other sports programs.
I get the vibe from WFC that the sky is falling after ucla and the win against Syracuse comes with a bunch of issues unresolved.
Am I wrong about this?
Imho the Cal defense improved substantially in the Syracuse game. Going to NY to play an EST game & winning is not a minor achievement. The Wagner game provides an excellent opportunity to work on improving O-line play.
Go Bears!
“Fix any lingering issues.” Are we watching the same team?
Good call. I've updated my comment since the prior verbiage wasn't an accurate reflection of where O-line play is right now.
I think Swimmie means that the issues are a lot more obvious than just "any"
We won against a better team on their field and in their stadium. Take it. Celebrate it. Do it again. Keep winning. And stop whining. Go Bears!
If Syracuse is better than us then that's a problem.
IMO the WFC guys are right on. Anyone who watched the FUCLA game saw the difference in talent and coaching - and it was HUGE! Saturday's game looked like an FCS game, not a Power 4 game - with penalties galore, horrible 2 point conversion attempts, dropped passes (by Cal), and place kickers doinking everything. Against 'Cuse, Lopa had more yards from RAC than the GB O produced in rushing. And IMHO JKS has not looked like a world beater due to the O looking putrid overall. The preseason pundits were right to put Cal at about 10th in the ACC - as that is how they are playing right now. I love Tosh's approach and determination, but he may not have the time to build the program we all want when realignment comes. I don't want to see the GBs relegated to obscurity, but for right now, expect to see the GBs play the rest of their home games at 10:30pm EST (except for Wagner). I'm really sad, and sad to say that 'Cuse wanted to lose more than Cal on Saturday...
This is how I feel
Yes, and I was on the hype train in August with everyone else...
Why do we want to be in the BIG10? I have said this before, it's better to be a top team in the ACC than the lower half of the SEC or BIG10. Why? Recruiting. Top teams from all the P4 divisions get ranked. Bottom half teams don't. Ranked teams get TV primetime, bottom half teams don't. Top ranked teams get better bowl games, bottom half teams don't. Recruits know this and when the spots are filled at the top 3 or 4 teams in the SEC and BIG10, kids start looking to the ACC and Big 12. All this means if it's easier for us to stay in the ACC and be a top team, then our recruiting will be better, especially with our academic reputation and great weather. Constantly being a top ACC school beats the hell out of being in the bottom half of the SEC or BIG10. And if we are a top team, the money will come. Even if our payout from the ACC isn't equal to the other two big conferences, in time our share will grow and our alumni support will be huge if we can field a top 20 program year in and year out. I'd prefer we were still in the PAC12, and I could actually see that happening again someday as the current teams become more competitive. It's all about talent and coaching. Talent fills a vacuum, especially where there is good NIL money and TV coverage. This talk about a 20 team super division is ridiculous. I think it would fail because fans would only watch the top four or 6 teams regularly. Having 4 power divisions is good for the game and for TV profits. (Having 5 would be better.)
It just comes down to our getting the most money and exposure possible. The ACC took us in when we were teetering on the edge of catastrophe, so there's that. There is something to be said for dancing with the gal who brought us to the party.
100% agree.
Because once the ACC breaks open, assuming major brands get poached, then the ACC becomes the PAC-12 and the current P4 protections it receives is no longer guaranteed.
What will force the ACC to break open. What other divisions want to split their paychecks even more ways than they are now? Which division is going to poach the ACC? And why would they do it? Even to pick up Miami they end up with other programs losing ground. You can't just build a division out of current top teams from all divisions because then lesser teams leave, other top teams become the new lesser teams of the division, their recruiting suffers, they go to lesser bowl games if they go at all, and their TV ratings suffer. Its a cycle and the top kids will always go to the top four or five teams in each division. The top kids won't waste their time with the lesser teams even in the SEC or BIG10. Its a self fulfilling cycle.
There are still schools out there that will lead to enough revenue growth for the B1G, and there are regional schools that the SEC will need to protect so they don't have to compete with the B1G regionally.
Miami is actually these least impressive. Same with Clemson. Those two feel like ACC powerhouses in the future.
FSU and UNC are the two crown jewels outside of ND, and ND is pretty much capped in what they can extract from NBC on their own. The ACC has too many schools that cannot compete at the highest levels when it comes to fundraising (BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pitt, NC State, GT) in addition to a bunch of middle-of-the-field teams (Louisville, Virginia, VT, Cal). Not sure where to put Duke or Stanford because they could if they wanted to.
With the tv money disparity, even if Cal ends up owning the ACC, we *will* be left behind and effectively become a farm team. It's not a long term path forward.
If we want our donors to stay invested, we need to find a way back to playing against USC, UCLA, UW, and UO weekly in a conference that actually pays us enough to compete with the best. We're already seeing the B1G and SEC trying to hijack the playoffs.
I think the overriding attraction for the best HS & CC players in 2026ff is how much money they'll get from the portal. Don't forget that Bowl money goes first to the schools. and players often skip bowls to remain healthy for the NFL draft. So the best players at Cal & their opponent considering to play in a bowl game has little to do with school loyalty.
We blew the last round of realignment by hitching our wagon to Wilcox for many years after it was apparent he was a perennial 0.500 coach (give or take). Is it too early to make such an assessment about Tosh? Of course it is. Buuuuut - we now know what lies around the bend in terms of realignment and the stakes are extremely high after we got left (almost) for dead the last time.
There simply isn't time for Tosh to grow into this role. If we're not hungry right now - this season - then the likely outcome of the next round of realignment looks more like Oregon State than UCLA for Cal.
Unfortunately this season has thus far looked a LOT like a Wilcox team and not much like a Tedford team. While it's not time to panic, I think it is time to be concerned. We get one tune up game, then a couple more winnable games. Unsure who VT is yet, they are untested in this iteration. Wake looks gettable. We'll know more about both VT and Wake before we play them. After that, there is a sigificant uptick in difficulty. If we're not clicking by the time we get @ SMU, @ NC State, and @ Virginia then we're looking at roughly a 0.500 season again, and any improvement towards the next realignment is pushed out yet another year.
If we do not go 8-4, it has to be considered a down season because recruits and talent on the team will be poached; this season is supposed to be an upswing with the talent and not playing Miami and having a semi-soft out of conference schedule. The UCLA loss demonstrates one team is in fact on the upswing and it wasn’t us.
Your comment is spot-on. We have to win now and then win more next year. That's the reality in 2026. Fortunately I believe Chancellor Lyons, Ron Rivera, Tosh and key donors all know how imperative it is to get to 8-9 wins this season. I don't recall the leadership team, from top to bottom ever being this strong.
To take a page from James Carville: “It’s the coaching, stupid!”
All the great college teams have great coaches and great coaching staffs. The Indiana Miracle of last year was built on great coaching; Chesney’s UCLA team is built on great coaching. Great coaches attract great players and great staff. The success of Alabama was built on great coaching that spawned numerous other great coaches who’ve built other great programs all over the country. Nick Saban supposedly told RR that Tosh was ready to take on the head coaching job at Cal. This may not be the breakout season we’d all hoped for, but if it’s not, next season sure as hell better be.
ACC sports writers had Cal pegged for 12th in the conference this year at the start of the saeson. We can still hope for higher, but improvement tends to come in steps and not leaps. More critical perhaps than how many games we win this season, is how many to the top high school recruits that have committed to Cal, sign on the dotted line during the early signing period in December. If we can keep that class together, lose a few/gain a few, Tosh and Co will have made a major step forward for the program's future.
Speculation, Schmeculation. You're absolutely right that at this point it's all about WIN THE NEXT GAME. Coach Lupoi constantly emphasizes "the process" and sometimes it takes time to get "the process" right. I'll settle for incremental improvement - across the board - this week, resulting in 60 minutes of consistent effort and a W.
Incremental improvement = relegation
Well Cal ain't going anywhere with essentially the same o-line as last season. Poor Adam Mohammed was pummeled at the line of scrimmage on just about every run.
I do not understand why funding for the conference is such an issue, given that the university's budget exceeds a billion dollars. A small fraction of that could be used for football. It appears the school administration lacks commitment to the football program. Investing in a strong football program can elevate the chance of getting into a top conference and ultimately help secure competitive opportunities for all other sports programs.