Evans Hall - Cal Football Stats & Analysis: The Terror of Small Sample Sizes

Week 3 still means there is a lot of variance

Idaho isn’t an incredible defense coming into the game, especially through the air, and yet outside of a couple of explosive plays on 1st down we remained woefully inept on later downs. Thankfully the offense was able to rely on Ifanse and Stredick to move the ball on those downs. Being one dimensional on a down and distance can prove deadly in Pac-12 play.

We can see that only on 2 of the passing plays on 2nd-4th downs yielded a 1st down or more.

Here is the worrying bump on 3rd down and 10 that rears its ugly head with the bump over the rest of the nation in frequency. We’re still under the national average on 3rd and 10+ but it is worth monitoring if we’re on pace to make out 1st downs or not. I think it is tied with the lack of production in the passing game, as we’re able to gain yards on the ground (sans the Auburn game).

On average we’re average at the rate we convert downs and score touchdowns. UW who we will face this week as well as Oregon, SC, and WSU are all on the top of the chart is converting downs and scoring touchdowns. This chart will change as more data is filled in, and will stabilize into a clear picture of team efficiency and TD conversion ability.

We’re the most aggressive 4th down offense in the nation which is great in showing a new mentality of the offense to go for it, however, it also means we find ourselves in 4th down to go situations quite a lot, and this is because on 1st and 2nd downs we’re struggling to converting, needing 3rd and 4ths to keep the drive going.

At least unlike in 2022 we’re not facing the longest odds on 3rd downs. In that case we’re quite average with some progress being made on 1st and 2nd downs, mostly due to the effectiveness of the rushing game.

So far Cal’s defense has been effective in making the opposing offenses feel sluggish against Cal, even with the occasional bust-ups by the coverage we have made the life of the opposing defenses quite painful. Remove 2 plays and we’re closer to looking like Utah, but those plays happened and it us up to the staff to amend that issue.

Cal’s defense has shown itself as a top 5 unit coming out of half-time, with most of the production making up for lackluster early game patterns. I think this is emblematic of how the games have gone, we have yet to give up a score in the 3rd Q. The charts are still kinda strange with Michigan State’s 4th Q offense, mostly fueled by garbage time scoring, but I will keep an eye on this if data aberrations pop up more.