1650 Free: 0/0 for Cal vs 2?/0 for Texas (updated after all but top-8, including two Longhorns have swum)
200 Back: 3/1 for Cal vs. 1/0 for Texas
100 Free: 1/0 for Cal vs. 2/1 for Texas
200 Breast: 1/3 for Cal vs. 1/1 for Texas
200 Fly: 2/1 for Cal vs 0/0 for Texas
Platform Diving: 0/0 for Cal vs. 0/1 for Texas (13th or 4 poi…
1650 Free: 0/0 for Cal vs 2?/0 for Texas (updated after all but top-8, including two Longhorns have swum)
200 Back: 3/1 for Cal vs. 1/0 for Texas
100 Free: 1/0 for Cal vs. 2/1 for Texas
200 Breast: 1/3 for Cal vs. 1/1 for Texas
200 Fly: 2/1 for Cal vs 0/0 for Texas
Platform Diving: 0/0 for Cal vs. 0/1 for Texas (13th or 4 points for Harness)
Total: 7/5 for Cal vs. 6/3 for Texas
It will likely come down to how the swimmers do in the finals tonight. For the optimists, Cal does have the top seed in 200 Back, 100 Back, and 400 Free Relay. The bonus points for winning an event could end up being the difference.
I did this somewhat quickly, but I think this is a pretty good estimate if you score out the prelims/seed:
1650 free - Cal 0, Texas 34
200 back - Cal 54, Texas 17
100 free - Cal 20, Texas 36
200 breast - Cal 30, Texas 24
200 fly - Cal 33, Texas 0
This means Cal will gain ~27 points heading into diving with 7.5 points from yesterday. Cal and Texas have been relatively equal in changes points based on seeding from prelims to finals so somewhere in the 24-30 range feels pretty reasonable so I'm going to call it at 30 point heading into the platform. Assuming the 1/1 for Texas platform diving is a realistic estimate, that probably means a maximum of 29 points for Texas so it just comes down to relay positioning (just have to beat Texas for the win).
Texas swam a 2:46.46 at their midseason invitational. I think they realistically can improve a full second and I would't be surprised at all. Cal swim a 2:45.94 at Pac-12s. I imagine Dylan Hawk will not swim the relay as I'm pretty sure his lead-off time at Pac-12s was intended to qualify for an individual swim. My guess is Bjorn Seeliger will lead-off with a sub-41. Jack Alexy split 41.14, which I'm not sure he will get down to that based on his prelim swim. Hugo Gonzalez and Destin Lasco are probably on the relay as well, and are both good for somewhere in the 41.5-41.7 range. Honestly, this meet could hinge on what Alexy splits and that makes me very antsy.
One easy and surprisingly pretty accurate way to predict scores is to ignore seed. Just allow 15 pts per A finalist and 5 pts per B finalist. That gives CAL 130 and TX 105. This estimated 25 pts is really close to your 27 and requires a lot less thought. Before the meet I had personally estimated that CAL could make up about a 30 point difference on the last day. Those two quick and easy guesses exactly bracket the 27. In any case, since CAL is ahead, I figure that's going to translate into a win... assuming no DQ's.
As a former track student athlete, I can say that winning matters and the score really doesn't. I happened to have an odd specialty, the 4x400 relay, which is traditionally the last event. Of course everyone wants to win their event, but if the team just squeeks out a victory thanks to the last event then that's just as good as a romp.
Only 1 Texas diver will score, and he finished in 13th. I certainly don’t know as much about diving, but that’s 4 points instead of the maximum 29 I put in my calculation. Huge as Cal just needs to execute as they have been.
Hey, Ruey & Christopher? I feel compelled to say, as a lifelong swimmer, fan, and still part-time high-school coach (and Berkeley lifer), that your write-ups and analysis are excellent. Thank you.
For tonight:
1650 Free: 0/0 for Cal vs 2?/0 for Texas (updated after all but top-8, including two Longhorns have swum)
200 Back: 3/1 for Cal vs. 1/0 for Texas
100 Free: 1/0 for Cal vs. 2/1 for Texas
200 Breast: 1/3 for Cal vs. 1/1 for Texas
200 Fly: 2/1 for Cal vs 0/0 for Texas
Platform Diving: 0/0 for Cal vs. 0/1 for Texas (13th or 4 points for Harness)
Total: 7/5 for Cal vs. 6/3 for Texas
It will likely come down to how the swimmers do in the finals tonight. For the optimists, Cal does have the top seed in 200 Back, 100 Back, and 400 Free Relay. The bonus points for winning an event could end up being the difference.
I did this somewhat quickly, but I think this is a pretty good estimate if you score out the prelims/seed:
1650 free - Cal 0, Texas 34
200 back - Cal 54, Texas 17
100 free - Cal 20, Texas 36
200 breast - Cal 30, Texas 24
200 fly - Cal 33, Texas 0
This means Cal will gain ~27 points heading into diving with 7.5 points from yesterday. Cal and Texas have been relatively equal in changes points based on seeding from prelims to finals so somewhere in the 24-30 range feels pretty reasonable so I'm going to call it at 30 point heading into the platform. Assuming the 1/1 for Texas platform diving is a realistic estimate, that probably means a maximum of 29 points for Texas so it just comes down to relay positioning (just have to beat Texas for the win).
Texas swam a 2:46.46 at their midseason invitational. I think they realistically can improve a full second and I would't be surprised at all. Cal swim a 2:45.94 at Pac-12s. I imagine Dylan Hawk will not swim the relay as I'm pretty sure his lead-off time at Pac-12s was intended to qualify for an individual swim. My guess is Bjorn Seeliger will lead-off with a sub-41. Jack Alexy split 41.14, which I'm not sure he will get down to that based on his prelim swim. Hugo Gonzalez and Destin Lasco are probably on the relay as well, and are both good for somewhere in the 41.5-41.7 range. Honestly, this meet could hinge on what Alexy splits and that makes me very antsy.
One easy and surprisingly pretty accurate way to predict scores is to ignore seed. Just allow 15 pts per A finalist and 5 pts per B finalist. That gives CAL 130 and TX 105. This estimated 25 pts is really close to your 27 and requires a lot less thought. Before the meet I had personally estimated that CAL could make up about a 30 point difference on the last day. Those two quick and easy guesses exactly bracket the 27. In any case, since CAL is ahead, I figure that's going to translate into a win... assuming no DQ's.
As a former track student athlete, I can say that winning matters and the score really doesn't. I happened to have an odd specialty, the 4x400 relay, which is traditionally the last event. Of course everyone wants to win their event, but if the team just squeeks out a victory thanks to the last event then that's just as good as a romp.
Only 1 Texas diver will score, and he finished in 13th. I certainly don’t know as much about diving, but that’s 4 points instead of the maximum 29 I put in my calculation. Huge as Cal just needs to execute as they have been.
Hey, Ruey & Christopher? I feel compelled to say, as a lifelong swimmer, fan, and still part-time high-school coach (and Berkeley lifer), that your write-ups and analysis are excellent. Thank you.
Very impressed with freshman Gabriel Jett for qualifying 8th in 200y Fly.
The audible roar you could hear from the Cal section was awesome.