Thanks for your work Ruey. Just checked the results and Cal blew the last event. Finished third with Texas first. Still won the championship by fifty points. Go Bears!
1650 Free: 0/0 for Cal vs 2?/0 for Texas (updated after all but top-8, including two Longhorns have swum)
200 Back: 3/1 for Cal vs. 1/0 for Texas
100 Free: 1/0 for Cal vs. 2/1 for Texas
200 Breast: 1/3 for Cal vs. 1/1 for Texas
200 Fly: 2/1 for Cal vs 0/0 for Texas
Platform Diving: 0/0 for Cal vs. 0/1 for Texas (13th or 4 points for Harness)
Total: 7/5 for Cal vs. 6/3 for Texas
It will likely come down to how the swimmers do in the finals tonight. For the optimists, Cal does have the top seed in 200 Back, 100 Back, and 400 Free Relay. The bonus points for winning an event could end up being the difference.
I did this somewhat quickly, but I think this is a pretty good estimate if you score out the prelims/seed:
1650 free - Cal 0, Texas 34
200 back - Cal 54, Texas 17
100 free - Cal 20, Texas 36
200 breast - Cal 30, Texas 24
200 fly - Cal 33, Texas 0
This means Cal will gain ~27 points heading into diving with 7.5 points from yesterday. Cal and Texas have been relatively equal in changes points based on seeding from prelims to finals so somewhere in the 24-30 range feels pretty reasonable so I'm going to call it at 30 point heading into the platform. Assuming the 1/1 for Texas platform diving is a realistic estimate, that probably means a maximum of 29 points for Texas so it just comes down to relay positioning (just have to beat Texas for the win).
Texas swam a 2:46.46 at their midseason invitational. I think they realistically can improve a full second and I would't be surprised at all. Cal swim a 2:45.94 at Pac-12s. I imagine Dylan Hawk will not swim the relay as I'm pretty sure his lead-off time at Pac-12s was intended to qualify for an individual swim. My guess is Bjorn Seeliger will lead-off with a sub-41. Jack Alexy split 41.14, which I'm not sure he will get down to that based on his prelim swim. Hugo Gonzalez and Destin Lasco are probably on the relay as well, and are both good for somewhere in the 41.5-41.7 range. Honestly, this meet could hinge on what Alexy splits and that makes me very antsy.
One easy and surprisingly pretty accurate way to predict scores is to ignore seed. Just allow 15 pts per A finalist and 5 pts per B finalist. That gives CAL 130 and TX 105. This estimated 25 pts is really close to your 27 and requires a lot less thought. Before the meet I had personally estimated that CAL could make up about a 30 point difference on the last day. Those two quick and easy guesses exactly bracket the 27. In any case, since CAL is ahead, I figure that's going to translate into a win... assuming no DQ's.
As a former track student athlete, I can say that winning matters and the score really doesn't. I happened to have an odd specialty, the 4x400 relay, which is traditionally the last event. Of course everyone wants to win their event, but if the team just squeeks out a victory thanks to the last event then that's just as good as a romp.
Only 1 Texas diver will score, and he finished in 13th. I certainly don’t know as much about diving, but that’s 4 points instead of the maximum 29 I put in my calculation. Huge as Cal just needs to execute as they have been.
Hey, Ruey & Christopher? I feel compelled to say, as a lifelong swimmer, fan, and still part-time high-school coach (and Berkeley lifer), that your write-ups and analysis are excellent. Thank you.
200y Breast - This could have been worse. Cal's Whitley and Texas's Corbeau are in the A-Final. Texas's Jake Foster just missed out by placing 9th. The B-Final will have three Bears in Hugo Gonzalez (I was hoping for him to make the A), Jason Louser, and Liam Bell.
Instead of an extra A-Finalist, we got two extra B-Finalists. That *could* still be important 10+ points pick up IF they finish near the front of the B-Finals.
Agreed, this was not the response I was hoping for after a strong Texas 100 free. Texas only has 1 swimmer entered in the 200 fly so that’s at least somewhat comforting.
EDIT: Carrozza (Texas) definitely will not score. I doubt Grieshop will score in the 1650 free so the 200 fly and the 1650 free have to essentially be a push, if not slight advantage Cal. This will give Cal roughly 20 point edge heading into diving and relay.
100y Free - Seeliger with the top seed, but two Texas Longhorns (Kibler and Krueger) also made the A final with a 9th place (B-Final berth) to Auchinachie.
Got to thanks the Virginians for pushing out a third Texas A finalist. That event is exactly how Texas starts to comeback, if they do end up winning it all. Longhorns have 3 distance freestylers in position to score, and divers who are better on the platform.
Well, it is plausible for Cal to get 2-3 extra A-Finalists (but more likely 2 extra A and 2 extra B) from 200 Breast and 200 Fly. That would make me feel a lot better.
200 back: Cal goes 3A/1B, Texas goes 1A. That’ll probably offset 2 of Texas’ distance freestylers. Probably need to outgain Texas by another 2 more A finals to feel good about putting it away in the morning.
200y Back - THREE Cal Bears in the A-Final (top-seed Destin Lasco, Daniel Carr, and "Calympian" Bryce Mefford) to just one for Texas (Carson Foster). Colby Mefford will also score points from the B-Final. This was mostly expected with Colby jumping from 21st seed to 13th best finish in the prelim, when he got to swim with his brother Bryce.
The exact final score isn’t really an important number in swimming—the specific point difference isn’t as interesting as the magnitude of difference (e.g., somewhat arbitrarily <25 points, 25-99 points, 100+). I’m looking to the 500-point mark, and whether Cal will break it. For reference, last year Texas scored 595 and Cal scored 568. Florida was third with 367, but this year’s Florida team is much better than last year’s. It should be pretty close, but I’m predicting that they will fall short and end up with about 481.5 and Texas will get to around 465.
Oh don't get me wrong, winning and losing is important. Just that it doesn't really matter if they score 482 and win or if they score 483 and win. With 21 events and 16 scorers per event (also have to factor in DQs), getting to a specific number is very challenging to predict.
Great coverage all month long Chris and Ruey!
Thanks for your work Ruey. Just checked the results and Cal blew the last event. Finished third with Texas first. Still won the championship by fifty points. Go Bears!
The team win is essentially clinched!
YARRRRRR!!!!!!
For tonight:
1650 Free: 0/0 for Cal vs 2?/0 for Texas (updated after all but top-8, including two Longhorns have swum)
200 Back: 3/1 for Cal vs. 1/0 for Texas
100 Free: 1/0 for Cal vs. 2/1 for Texas
200 Breast: 1/3 for Cal vs. 1/1 for Texas
200 Fly: 2/1 for Cal vs 0/0 for Texas
Platform Diving: 0/0 for Cal vs. 0/1 for Texas (13th or 4 points for Harness)
Total: 7/5 for Cal vs. 6/3 for Texas
It will likely come down to how the swimmers do in the finals tonight. For the optimists, Cal does have the top seed in 200 Back, 100 Back, and 400 Free Relay. The bonus points for winning an event could end up being the difference.
I did this somewhat quickly, but I think this is a pretty good estimate if you score out the prelims/seed:
1650 free - Cal 0, Texas 34
200 back - Cal 54, Texas 17
100 free - Cal 20, Texas 36
200 breast - Cal 30, Texas 24
200 fly - Cal 33, Texas 0
This means Cal will gain ~27 points heading into diving with 7.5 points from yesterday. Cal and Texas have been relatively equal in changes points based on seeding from prelims to finals so somewhere in the 24-30 range feels pretty reasonable so I'm going to call it at 30 point heading into the platform. Assuming the 1/1 for Texas platform diving is a realistic estimate, that probably means a maximum of 29 points for Texas so it just comes down to relay positioning (just have to beat Texas for the win).
Texas swam a 2:46.46 at their midseason invitational. I think they realistically can improve a full second and I would't be surprised at all. Cal swim a 2:45.94 at Pac-12s. I imagine Dylan Hawk will not swim the relay as I'm pretty sure his lead-off time at Pac-12s was intended to qualify for an individual swim. My guess is Bjorn Seeliger will lead-off with a sub-41. Jack Alexy split 41.14, which I'm not sure he will get down to that based on his prelim swim. Hugo Gonzalez and Destin Lasco are probably on the relay as well, and are both good for somewhere in the 41.5-41.7 range. Honestly, this meet could hinge on what Alexy splits and that makes me very antsy.
One easy and surprisingly pretty accurate way to predict scores is to ignore seed. Just allow 15 pts per A finalist and 5 pts per B finalist. That gives CAL 130 and TX 105. This estimated 25 pts is really close to your 27 and requires a lot less thought. Before the meet I had personally estimated that CAL could make up about a 30 point difference on the last day. Those two quick and easy guesses exactly bracket the 27. In any case, since CAL is ahead, I figure that's going to translate into a win... assuming no DQ's.
As a former track student athlete, I can say that winning matters and the score really doesn't. I happened to have an odd specialty, the 4x400 relay, which is traditionally the last event. Of course everyone wants to win their event, but if the team just squeeks out a victory thanks to the last event then that's just as good as a romp.
Only 1 Texas diver will score, and he finished in 13th. I certainly don’t know as much about diving, but that’s 4 points instead of the maximum 29 I put in my calculation. Huge as Cal just needs to execute as they have been.
Hey, Ruey & Christopher? I feel compelled to say, as a lifelong swimmer, fan, and still part-time high-school coach (and Berkeley lifer), that your write-ups and analysis are excellent. Thank you.
Very impressed with freshman Gabriel Jett for qualifying 8th in 200y Fly.
The audible roar you could hear from the Cal section was awesome.
200y Breast - This could have been worse. Cal's Whitley and Texas's Corbeau are in the A-Final. Texas's Jake Foster just missed out by placing 9th. The B-Final will have three Bears in Hugo Gonzalez (I was hoping for him to make the A), Jason Louser, and Liam Bell.
Instead of an extra A-Finalist, we got two extra B-Finalists. That *could* still be important 10+ points pick up IF they finish near the front of the B-Finals.
Agreed, this was not the response I was hoping for after a strong Texas 100 free. Texas only has 1 swimmer entered in the 200 fly so that’s at least somewhat comforting.
EDIT: Carrozza (Texas) definitely will not score. I doubt Grieshop will score in the 1650 free so the 200 fly and the 1650 free have to essentially be a push, if not slight advantage Cal. This will give Cal roughly 20 point edge heading into diving and relay.
100y Free - Seeliger with the top seed, but two Texas Longhorns (Kibler and Krueger) also made the A final with a 9th place (B-Final berth) to Auchinachie.
Got to thanks the Virginians for pushing out a third Texas A finalist. That event is exactly how Texas starts to comeback, if they do end up winning it all. Longhorns have 3 distance freestylers in position to score, and divers who are better on the platform.
Well, it is plausible for Cal to get 2-3 extra A-Finalists (but more likely 2 extra A and 2 extra B) from 200 Breast and 200 Fly. That would make me feel a lot better.
200 back: Cal goes 3A/1B, Texas goes 1A. That’ll probably offset 2 of Texas’ distance freestylers. Probably need to outgain Texas by another 2 more A finals to feel good about putting it away in the morning.
200y Back - THREE Cal Bears in the A-Final (top-seed Destin Lasco, Daniel Carr, and "Calympian" Bryce Mefford) to just one for Texas (Carson Foster). Colby Mefford will also score points from the B-Final. This was mostly expected with Colby jumping from 21st seed to 13th best finish in the prelim, when he got to swim with his brother Bryce.
The exact final score isn’t really an important number in swimming—the specific point difference isn’t as interesting as the magnitude of difference (e.g., somewhat arbitrarily <25 points, 25-99 points, 100+). I’m looking to the 500-point mark, and whether Cal will break it. For reference, last year Texas scored 595 and Cal scored 568. Florida was third with 367, but this year’s Florida team is much better than last year’s. It should be pretty close, but I’m predicting that they will fall short and end up with about 481.5 and Texas will get to around 465.
Oh don't get me wrong, winning and losing is important. Just that it doesn't really matter if they score 482 and win or if they score 483 and win. With 21 events and 16 scorers per event (also have to factor in DQs), getting to a specific number is very challenging to predict.