The Big 12 isn't interested -- there are reports out all over the place today saying they haven't and have no intention of pursuing the Pac 4. I'm certain this rumor was leaked to try and get some leverage on the ACC. I agree re: the cultural / political reasoning is stupid, but that's the way everything is these days. I imagine it's a two way street with the Big 12.
Elsewhere, X/Twitter, someone opined, there will only be three power conferences left standing, it's just a question of whether or not the 3rd one is ACC or the Big12.
Agree, and I imagine it will be the Big 12 since the ACC is going to get poached like crazy at the first sign of a break in their GOR. The Big 12 has a huge advantage of being poached first, although I could see the Big Ten going after Kansas and the SEC going after Oklahoma State and Texas Tech later.
I never have trolled. Why is it that folks at Cal (in general but not everyone) think that any opinions that aren't what they want to hear are trolling?
These message boards are to state opinions which is exactly what I've done. It seems you believe it's trolling because you don't agree with my opinions. You have every right to disagree with me, but it's quite arrogant to say someone is only a troll because you don't agree with them. You won't see me call people names or insult people (although I admittedly might if someone attacks me first), but I'll definitely give my thoughts and you should too. If you think I'm wrong tell me so -- that's ok too. You may give me info I wasn't aware of that changes my view. I'll never be so arrogant to believe any view different than mine is automatically wrong.
I just tend to not form opinions based on emotion or try to be a PR plant/Susie Sunshine when it comes to my opinions on Cal. I'm pretty straight forward so while I can understand someone not liking my opinion, that doesn't mean I'm trolling.
You stated some emphatically anti-Cal opinions that from our POV seem to imply we do not belong in a P4/5 conference. Of course my memory may be befuddled with some other posters and you were unfairly lumped in.
Bottom line, and I believe I speak for most Cal supporters, we are definitely disappointed with our current state and, some of that group, is disappointed with a longer span of historical disappointments. So, I, for one, want to here positives or constructive negatives, since the back of my mind is screaming existential despair.
Yeah I have some emphatic opinions -- several on here do -- but anti-Cal opinions? No, those were just opinions, period. They are anti-Cal to you because of your emotions. Anti-Cal would be saying it's a terrible place to be, which it isn't. But saying it brings no additive value to a conference where it doesn't bring additive value isn't anti-Cal. I get it, no one likes it when the school they love isn't Notre Dame in value and prestige, but there's only one Notre Dame and most of the rest of the schools have places they fit and places they don't. The truth is Cal brings no value to most athletic conferences right now because quite frankly it hasn't been good in football and basketball for quite some time. That's not anti-Cal, that's the unfortunate truth.
So, if I share the painful truth about Oregon being relatively recent to national contention on a Duck fan page, that's not trolling (looking to irk folks)? Fun Fact: Oregon was just another Pac 8 team until Uncle Phil came in with his big wallet.
Like I say, I might even agree with some of what you say, if phrased differently, but you seem to think it benefits Oregon if we're simply put in the back pasture. I would call that nothing less than an anti-Cal POV and, what's more, you post these "truths" on a pro-Cal site. Hmmmm....
Yup. Same thing happened to PAC vs Big 12. Unless we get more major networks as primary dealmakers, this is the future. Maybe the streamers will finally emerge as an alternative to Fox and ESPN before 2030 but it's still amateur hour with them in 2023.
I suppose you're right re: getting more major networks. I just have a hard time believing that the networks as they are today didn't have room for five power leagues when they've had time the last 40 years on linear TV. And today they have tons of extra channels (FS1, ESPN2, ESPN3, ESPNU, ESPNews) to spread content across.
Streamers can absorb a massive amount of content but production is what's expensive. Fortunately the Pac-12 Network is high-quality but funded by a garbage revenue plan. That's part of the value baked into the PAC remnant. It's not clear how that asset would be handled at the end.
ESPN+ is unique because it has a subscription model that is complimentary to ESPN's linear programming. Maybe we'll see Apple or Amazon partner with an existing network with a struggling streaming network or a network that wants a turnkey entry into the space.
Right now, we're seeing early-mid-20th century baseball where the AL and NL (B1G and SEC) expanded westward. There was the PCL and Negro League which were effectively AAAA-level. I think the market may be "thick" enough to support a AAAA level but it won't be able to compete with the majors very easily.
People have said that some European soccer leagues are set up this way but I don't really watch European soccer.
The ACC is locked up for over a decade still with huge buyouts. Big 12 has a 6-year deal to start. Given that, I would say Big 12 is more vulnerable but I wouldn't say particularly vulnerable because I'm not sure how much more consolidation we'll see.
I think we were seeing a scenario where only one of the Pac and Big 12 could survive and...welp.
Yeah the low-ball thing will be the major issue. If Fox and ESPN incentivize B1G and SEC to expand (especially with a "partial share tier" above the B12 or ACC full share) you'll see some defections. B12 media deal ends before the ACC GOR contract ends, though dollars may start becoming high enough to make it worth breaking.
Agree. The Big 12 got poached first so I think that gives them the advantage. The ACC has a longer term contract, but the first sign of a break in their GOR and they'll get absolutely pillaged. If the Big 12 is still around at that time I imagine they'll be the winner since they were poached first. There's only a few schools in the Big 12 that I think the Big Ten and SEC would go after later.
I don’t at all understand the donor attrition bit, particularly when compared to relegation.
The idea that we wouldn’t want to join the Big 12 bc of cultural/political reasons is stupid and embarrassing if true.
My concern re the Big 12 is its own survival after losing OU and Texas, but the ACC has similar concerns.
The Big 12 isn't interested -- there are reports out all over the place today saying they haven't and have no intention of pursuing the Pac 4. I'm certain this rumor was leaked to try and get some leverage on the ACC. I agree re: the cultural / political reasoning is stupid, but that's the way everything is these days. I imagine it's a two way street with the Big 12.
Elsewhere, X/Twitter, someone opined, there will only be three power conferences left standing, it's just a question of whether or not the 3rd one is ACC or the Big12.
Agree, and I imagine it will be the Big 12 since the ACC is going to get poached like crazy at the first sign of a break in their GOR. The Big 12 has a huge advantage of being poached first, although I could see the Big Ten going after Kansas and the SEC going after Oklahoma State and Texas Tech later.
So, no trolling, today? 😉
I never have trolled. Why is it that folks at Cal (in general but not everyone) think that any opinions that aren't what they want to hear are trolling?
These message boards are to state opinions which is exactly what I've done. It seems you believe it's trolling because you don't agree with my opinions. You have every right to disagree with me, but it's quite arrogant to say someone is only a troll because you don't agree with them. You won't see me call people names or insult people (although I admittedly might if someone attacks me first), but I'll definitely give my thoughts and you should too. If you think I'm wrong tell me so -- that's ok too. You may give me info I wasn't aware of that changes my view. I'll never be so arrogant to believe any view different than mine is automatically wrong.
I just tend to not form opinions based on emotion or try to be a PR plant/Susie Sunshine when it comes to my opinions on Cal. I'm pretty straight forward so while I can understand someone not liking my opinion, that doesn't mean I'm trolling.
You stated some emphatically anti-Cal opinions that from our POV seem to imply we do not belong in a P4/5 conference. Of course my memory may be befuddled with some other posters and you were unfairly lumped in.
Bottom line, and I believe I speak for most Cal supporters, we are definitely disappointed with our current state and, some of that group, is disappointed with a longer span of historical disappointments. So, I, for one, want to here positives or constructive negatives, since the back of my mind is screaming existential despair.
Yeah I have some emphatic opinions -- several on here do -- but anti-Cal opinions? No, those were just opinions, period. They are anti-Cal to you because of your emotions. Anti-Cal would be saying it's a terrible place to be, which it isn't. But saying it brings no additive value to a conference where it doesn't bring additive value isn't anti-Cal. I get it, no one likes it when the school they love isn't Notre Dame in value and prestige, but there's only one Notre Dame and most of the rest of the schools have places they fit and places they don't. The truth is Cal brings no value to most athletic conferences right now because quite frankly it hasn't been good in football and basketball for quite some time. That's not anti-Cal, that's the unfortunate truth.
So, if I share the painful truth about Oregon being relatively recent to national contention on a Duck fan page, that's not trolling (looking to irk folks)? Fun Fact: Oregon was just another Pac 8 team until Uncle Phil came in with his big wallet.
Like I say, I might even agree with some of what you say, if phrased differently, but you seem to think it benefits Oregon if we're simply put in the back pasture. I would call that nothing less than an anti-Cal POV and, what's more, you post these "truths" on a pro-Cal site. Hmmmm....
And that's not trolling?
Yup. Same thing happened to PAC vs Big 12. Unless we get more major networks as primary dealmakers, this is the future. Maybe the streamers will finally emerge as an alternative to Fox and ESPN before 2030 but it's still amateur hour with them in 2023.
I suppose you're right re: getting more major networks. I just have a hard time believing that the networks as they are today didn't have room for five power leagues when they've had time the last 40 years on linear TV. And today they have tons of extra channels (FS1, ESPN2, ESPN3, ESPNU, ESPNews) to spread content across.
Streamers can absorb a massive amount of content but production is what's expensive. Fortunately the Pac-12 Network is high-quality but funded by a garbage revenue plan. That's part of the value baked into the PAC remnant. It's not clear how that asset would be handled at the end.
ESPN+ is unique because it has a subscription model that is complimentary to ESPN's linear programming. Maybe we'll see Apple or Amazon partner with an existing network with a struggling streaming network or a network that wants a turnkey entry into the space.
Right now, we're seeing early-mid-20th century baseball where the AL and NL (B1G and SEC) expanded westward. There was the PCL and Negro League which were effectively AAAA-level. I think the market may be "thick" enough to support a AAAA level but it won't be able to compete with the majors very easily.
People have said that some European soccer leagues are set up this way but I don't really watch European soccer.
The ACC is locked up for over a decade still with huge buyouts. Big 12 has a 6-year deal to start. Given that, I would say Big 12 is more vulnerable but I wouldn't say particularly vulnerable because I'm not sure how much more consolidation we'll see.
I think we were seeing a scenario where only one of the Pac and Big 12 could survive and...welp.
I don't think big 12 will get poached outside of maybe KU/KSU, but will get lowballed in the next round.
Yeah the low-ball thing will be the major issue. If Fox and ESPN incentivize B1G and SEC to expand (especially with a "partial share tier" above the B12 or ACC full share) you'll see some defections. B12 media deal ends before the ACC GOR contract ends, though dollars may start becoming high enough to make it worth breaking.
An ongoing lesson in corporate oligarchy, which I hate almost as much as Communism. What's happened to our anti-trust laws?
Bob R, what say you?
Agree. The Big 12 got poached first so I think that gives them the advantage. The ACC has a longer term contract, but the first sign of a break in their GOR and they'll get absolutely pillaged. If the Big 12 is still around at that time I imagine they'll be the winner since they were poached first. There's only a few schools in the Big 12 that I think the Big Ten and SEC would go after later.